What will Greg Roman do to Adapt?

[Cover 1]

Greg Roman's offensive tweaks for 2016: Shifting, Personnel groupings, 5 wides and Power Veer concepts.

 

What else do you think he will bring?

 

http://www.cover1.net/2016/08/what-to-expect-from-greg-roman/

[Astrobot]

Much obliged, Eric. Good stuff. We saw exactly the 22 personnel grouping at practice last week, and I expect to see it today. -Astro

[hondo in seattle]

I'm not sure what tweaks I expect from Roman this year. Instead I have a question regarding this quote from Erik:

 

"Most statistics tracked by the NFL are solely based on yardage gained/loss etc. Football Outsiders takes into account the context of the yardage gained or loss such as down and distance (weighted offense). So, their stats more accurately reflect how an offensive or defensive unit performed."

 

Does FO's stats really more accurately reflect how an offense or defensive unit performs???

 

Sometimes the analytics guys get too fancy. Yards gained is a great measure because football is a game about field position and scoring. And to score you need to march up and down the field. Yards gained is a simple stat that measures something important.

 

Sometimes, though, I think yards per drive might be a better measure. A defense forced on the field a lot because of their anemic offense ought not to be punished in the rankings.

 

Others make good arguments about why scoring is a better metric than yards.

 

What makes FO's stats even better? Do they correlate with wins and losses any better?

 

Back to Roman.... It's curious that Roman made some very different choices here than he did in SF. As Roman told John Kyrk, "You adapt or you die."

 

Erik - another great, insightful article!

[Ohiostyle]

Fantastic insight and content. Thank you

[GunnerBill]

Back to Roman.... It's curious that Roman made some very different choices here than he did in SF. As Roman told John Kyrk, "You adapt or you die."

 

Erik - another great, insightful article!

 

I don't think it is curious at all. Greg Roman is the best run game coordinator in all of football. He will look at what you give him and a find a way to make a run game productive. He is creative, flexible, adaptable and all the other adjectives that only generally get applied to offensive coordinators who air it out much more. He has different style weapons in Buffalo than he had in San Fran so the run game looks different but the production is unquestionably there. If we can just be a little more unpredictable and creative in the passing game in 2016 than we were in 2015 (that in part is dependant on Tyrod's progression) then we will have a top 10 offense.

 

After seeing him in Buffalo and understanding how he has adjusted to his personnel and their strengths (and Erik's last video on the way our run plays developed as last year went on demonstrated that well) I have no problem in believing that he would be a successful head football coach. If the Bills have a top 10 offense in 2016 then the only way we still have Greg Roman on our staff in 2017 is if he is in Rex's office.

[Nanker]

I'm not sure what tweaks I expect from Roman this year. Instead I have a question regarding this quote from Erik:

 

"Most statistics tracked by the NFL are solely based on yardage gained/loss etc. Football Outsiders takes into account the context of the yardage gained or loss such as down and distance (weighted offense). So, their stats more accurately reflect how an offensive or defensive unit performed."

 

Does FO's stats really more accurately reflect how an offense or defensive unit performs???

 

Sometimes the analytics guys get too fancy. Yards gained is a great measure because football is a game about field position and scoring. And to score you need to march up and down the field. Yards gained is a simple stat that measures something important.

 

Sometimes, though, I think yards per drive might be a better measure. A defense forced on the field a lot because of their anemic offense ought not to be punished in the rankings.

 

Others make good arguments about why scoring is a better metric than yards.

 

What makes FO's stats even better? Do they correlate with wins and losses any better?

 

Back to Roman.... It's curious that Roman made some very different choices here than he did in SF. As Roman told John Kyrk, "You adapt or you die."

 

Erik - another great, insightful article!

That's an innarestin' take. Sort of like the closer you get to the goal line, the harder it is to gain yards - because the field is compressed - removing much of the offensive play book, and defenses get tougher - because they have less field to cover and their opposing player(s) has (have) fewer options. So, 1st and 10 from your own 20 should be "easier" yards to get to the first down. 1st and 10 from the 10 should be tougher yards to get the TD. And putting all down and distance factors into the "equation" the relative difficulty of yards gained from your own 20 would change from 1st down (easiest) to 3rd down (harder) based purely on the down. But then factor in the distance and you could have 1st and 10, 2nd and 10, and 3rd and 10, or 1st and 10, 2nd and 3, 3rd and 1. The yards gained on each play would be weighted differently.

 

I ain't into statistics, but I can see how someone could come up with weighted scored based on the above to show the relative strength of an Offense wrt field position in a game and over the course of a season.

[Cover 1]

I'm not sure what tweaks I expect from Roman this year. Instead I have a question regarding this quote from Erik:

 

"Most statistics tracked by the NFL are solely based on yardage gained/loss etc. Football Outsiders takes into account the context of the yardage gained or loss such as down and distance (weighted offense). So, their stats more accurately reflect how an offensive or defensive unit performed."

 

Does FO's stats really more accurately reflect how an offense or defensive unit performs???

 

Sometimes the analytics guys get too fancy. Yards gained is a great measure because football is a game about field position and scoring. And to score you need to march up and down the field. Yards gained is a simple stat that measures something important.

 

Sometimes, though, I think yards per drive might be a better measure. A defense forced on the field a lot because of their anemic offense ought not to be punished in the rankings.

 

Others make good arguments about why scoring is a better metric than yards.

 

What makes FO's stats even better? Do they correlate with wins and losses any better?

 

Back to Roman.... It's curious that Roman made some very different choices here than he did in SF. As Roman told John Kyrk, "You adapt or you die."

 

Erik - another great, insightful article!

Thanks! As a person that breaks down film as much as I do I do believe that context of yards gains has to be taken into account. Coaches believe that too IMO. Plays and Gameplans are developed based w a down and distance context so stats should be measured in that context too. I wouldn't know if FOs stats leads to more wins or losses but I am sure that it helps coaches gameplan and design on a play to play basis. I'm not completely an analytics guy I rely more on film hahaha. But I do like some analytics to back up what I see on film. Coaches use analytics as a tool as do I. Part of the game now. Thanks for ur support guys!

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Edited August 9, 2016 by TurnerE

[John from Riverside]

I honestly am expecting a much expanded role for Tyrod Taylor

 

Yes....we will run the ball....but I expect more over the middle throws....more working of Clay.....more passing yards all the way around as teams identify us as a "run first run often" team that we were last year.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Honestly I'm getting more excited by the offense, what with all the injuries on defense.

 

But Shady is looking great, the WRs are looking better and Tyrod is showing some good stuff.

[Malazan]

I think he will adjust the operating frequency of the shield to match the beams used against them and screen against that frequency.

[Dr. Who]

I think he will adjust the operating frequency of the shield to match the beams used against them and screen against that frequency.

All Bills' helmets are lined with tin-foil so you are talking about a redundant system.

Since Terry is megabucks, they may employ the shield method as well. I don't have inside knowledge of that, however.

All I know about for sure is the helmets.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

All Bills' helmets are lined with tin-foil so you are talking about a redundant system.

Since Terry is megabucks, they may employ the shield method as well. I don't have inside knowledge of that, however.

All I know about for sure is the helmets.

Dr, should he reverse the polarity?

[Dr. Who]

Dr, should he reverse the polarity?

That's a technical question that has to take into account solar flares, leap years, global mean temperature and the like.

Of course, all that is child's play if one has a sonic screwdriver.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

That's a technical question that has to take into account solar flares, leap years, global mean temperature and the like.

Of course, all that is child's play if one has a sonic screwdriver.

But if he does both won't he confuse the polarity?

[Malazan]

That's a technical question that has to take into account solar flares, leap years, global mean temperature and the like.

Of course, all that is child's play if one has a sonic screwdriver.

 

Sonic Screwdrivers are futile. You will be assimilated.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

 

Sonic Screwdrivers are futile. You will be assimilated.

Well, it won't work at Center. Sonic Screwdrivers don't work on Wood.

[Dr. Who]

But if he does both won't he confuse the polarity?

Polarity is notorious for being easily confused. It is partly genetic and partly a result of being taught Latin at an incipient energy state. Latin has a very logical grammar, but flexible syntax. Furthermore, one can manage the electron flow and balance out the dyslexic paranoid schizoid conditional templates if one does the gondola yoyo trick over a crack in time. It also helps if one plays Mozart. I'm not really sure why.

 

Sonic Screwdrivers are futile. You will be assimilated.

Bluster. Have a jelly baby.

[Cover 1]

I honestly am expecting a much expanded role for Tyrod Taylor

 

Yes....we will run the ball....but I expect more over the middle throws....more working of Clay.....more passing yards all the way around as teams identify us as a "run first run often" team that we were last year.

I expect more freedom for TT as far as audibles etc but I don't think he will be asked to pass that much more often. Teams are also going to work on taking away the deep ball so I don't think it'll be that much easier. As far as TT throwkng to clay over the middle I totally agree I have an article in the chamber for later in the week covering that!

[Punching Bag]

That's an innarestin' take. Sort of like the closer you get to the goal line, the harder it is to gain yards - because the field is compressed - removing much of the offensive play book, and defenses get tougher - because they have less field to cover and their opposing player(s) has (have) fewer options. So, 1st and 10 from your own 20 should be "easier" yards to get to the first down. 1st and 10 from the 10 should be tougher yards to get the TD. And putting all down and distance factors into the "equation" the relative difficulty of yards gained from your own 20 would change from 1st down (easiest) to 3rd down (harder) based purely on the down. But then factor in the distance and you could have 1st and 10, 2nd and 10, and 3rd and 10, or 1st and 10, 2nd and 3, 3rd and 1. The yards gained on each play would be weighted differently.

 

I ain't into statistics, but I can see how someone could come up with weighted scored based on the above to show the relative strength of an Offense wrt field position in a game and over the course of a season.

 

1st and 10 from your own 20 should be "easier" yards to get to the first down except that being that close to your goal line makes it a bit riskier - have seen QBs when flushed run 20 yards behind LoS and still make positive yardage; I think 30 (yours) to 30 (opponents) are easier yards with closer you get to either goal line the less options to use.

[Cover 1]

Fantastic insight and content. Thank you

Thanks! No problem!!!