thebandit27 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 Nice work, but for the Bills, there's definitely some missing logic based on the pre-draft visitors. I'm not saying that it's a lock, but the Bills first draft pick for the last 10 years in a row have been visitors to the team. To boot, Buffalo has visited 8 guys that grade out around top-20 picks, of which you only have 4 of those guys going in advance of the Bills pick at #19. What I really don't care for with this "trade down" scenario is that there's two DT's that grade out a LOT higher than Vernon Butler that are still there in Sheldon Rankins and Jarran Reed. To boot, they just visited with Taylor Decker, who is the only guy you suggested they would pick at #19 that could be the pick. They did meet with Joseph, but he grades out to a second rounder, making him a huge reach in the first. Same with Chris Jones, who they haven't met with. Doctson hasn't visited either and I seriously doubt a WR will be a priority for at least the first 3 rounds. They've met with exactly 1 WR out of the 22 guys visiting OBD and that was projected 3-4th round pick Kolby Listenbee. Butler did visit, though I don't think they're married to the philosophy of having to meet with a guy. Also, I don't have Rankins ahead of Butler for multiple-front teams. Butler, for me, ranks way ahead of Reed on all of my boards, but that's JMO. Thanks for the comments! I like it too. Some not all that different thinking from my final version which I all but completed yesterday and will post on Wednesday. The players you have in the 1st are VERY similar to me. The three I don't have are Dodd (honestly don't think teams love him as much as the hype), Butler (though he makes perfect sense in the trade down scenario you suggest) and Joseph (who I had got mocked in the first in my version 1 I posted back in Feb but misses the cut in v.3). You and I tend to think alike draft-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 (edited) If we can add an impact lineman there, and add an extra 2nd. That'd give us 3 shots in the first 60 or so picks. Huge add pick-wise. Draft's deep in the front 7 too - we could end up with 2 or 3 new faces. Edited April 25, 2016 by dneveu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Butler did visit, though I don't think they're married to the philosophy of having to meet with a guy. Also, I don't have Rankins ahead of Butler for multiple-front teams. Butler, for me, ranks way ahead of Reed on all of my boards, but that's JMO. Thanks for the comments! You and I tend to think alike draft-wise. Maybe so - I just get the impression that the Bills are much higher on Reed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 Well written and good explanations, thanks. I would like to hear your reasoning on Zeke. It seemed like you almost sent him to Dallas but then went with Bozo. Zeke is a perfect fit for that oline and frail QB, plus JJ loves toys and doesn't do things the conventional way. Jerry does love toys; thing is, he actually has a tremendous personnel guy running the show in Will McClay, who's talked him out of picks like Johnny Manziel in favor of headier picks like Zach Martin and Travis Frederick. I think it comes down to need vs. value--I think they'll be fine with Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden at RB, and if not, they could likely grab Derrick Henry in the 2nd or Devontae Booker in the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Butler did visit, though I don't think they're married to the philosophy of having to meet with a guy. Also, I don't have Rankins ahead of Butler for multiple-front teams. Butler, for me, ranks way ahead of Reed on all of my boards, but that's JMO. Thanks for the comments! You and I tend to think alike draft-wise. Me too, he is a lot more versatile. I put a lot of stock into Sr. Bowl week as it is one of the only times that "the playing field is leveled" for lack of a better term. Butler had an outstanding week and did so against some highly regarded OL. In addition, he jumped off the screen to me in the couple of LA Tech games that I watched. His size and versatility makes him appealing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 Maybe so - I just get the impression that the Bills are much higher on Reed... That may indeed be the case--I'd be slightly disappointed by that. Me too, he is a lot more versatile. I put a lot of stock into Sr. Bowl week as it is one of the only times that "the playing field is leveled" for lack of a better term. Butler had an outstanding week and did so against some highly regarded OL. In addition, he jumped off the screen to me in the couple of LA Tech games that I watched. His size and versatility makes him appealing to me. Yeah--versatility is huge with Rex. He's also got the ideal body type for what Rex likes--he's long-limbed and thick through his upper body. As far as interior linemen that they have a realistic shot at with the 19th pick, Butler's right behind Chris Jones for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Well written and good explanations, thanks. I would like to hear your reasoning on Zeke. It seemed like you almost sent him to Dallas but then went with Bozo. Zeke is a perfect fit for that oline and frail QB, plus JJ loves toys and doesn't do things the conventional way. While this is true, I think Zeke is being miscast a little as a luxury. This isn't like a Spiller or Tavon Austin type of "weapon" in the top 10. It is closer to Adrian Peterson in terms of being just a great football. In fact, some have him as the highest graded back since Peterson almost a decade ago. Zeke might be the best football player in this draft. He is a complete back and scored a 32 on the wonderlic. He is explosive, shifty, a finisher with great vision and one of the best blocking backs ever graded. I am certainly a bit of a homer on him but he will be a home run for whoever takes him. That may indeed be the case--I'd be slightly disappointed by that. Yeah--versatility is huge with Rex. He's also got the ideal body type for what Rex likes--he's long-limbed and thick through his upper body. As far as interior linemen that they have a realistic shot at with the 19th pick, Butler's right behind Chris Jones for me. I like Jones as well. I am not too enthused about any of the Alabama guys there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 You and I tend to think alike draft-wise. Indeed. Even a couple of the matches you have - Floyd to Chicago and Spence to Arizona I have had and then changed. Version 3 that I will post is actually about version 6.... I had a v.3 I was pretty happy with before the Philly trade then spent Friday evening putting a new one together. Wasn't happy with it, it just didn't feel right then the revised version Saturday did... with just a couple of picks giving me pause for thought and finally Sunday I nailed one I like. I am waiting until Wednesday just in case the rumour mill churns something out late.... 2 years ago I got burned with a final version going early and by the Wednesday it was pretty clear the Bills were in serious negotiations about trading up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 Indeed. Even a couple of the matches you have - Floyd to Chicago and Spence to Arizona I have had and then changed. Version 3 that I will post is actually about version 6.... I had a v.3 I was pretty happy with before the Philly trade then spent Friday evening putting a new one together. Wasn't happy with it, it just didn't feel right then the revised version Saturday did... with just a couple of picks giving me pause for thought and finally Sunday I nailed one I like. I am waiting until Wednesday just in case the rumour mill churns something out late.... 2 years ago I got burned with a final version going early and by the Wednesday it was pretty clear the Bills were in serious negotiations about trading up. Haha--I hear that...at some point I just cut the cord and post it, mostly so that I can finish any last-minute evaluations of guys I don't feel great about. This usually means that I'm reviewing a few guys that I think may end up in Buffalo that I didn't previously like; trying to talk myself into liking them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 So if Denver trades up with us for that pick, what would we most likely get in return? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 So if Denver trades up with us for that pick, what would we most likely get in return? It's almost an exact match in points for the #63 selection--which Denver owns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 It's almost an exact match in points for the #63 selection--which Denver owns So it's: #19, #49 vs. #31, #49, #63 Hrrmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 (edited) So it's: #19, #49 vs. #31, #49, #63 Hrrmm... I run to the phone for this. Edited April 25, 2016 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 So it's: #19, #49 vs. #31, #49, #63 Hrrmm... In this draft I would take 31,49 & 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Maybe so - I just get the impression that the Bills are much higher on Reed... Could be...I do have the feeling the Bills are being a little more covert this year knowing the word is out that they Draft guys who visit a lot... I'm definitely on board with Bandit on the Butler over Reed...Not sure about Rankins though...I agree he's a bit limited, but he's so disruptive, despite his size... I like Chris Jones better than any of them though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 (edited) In this draft I would take 31,49 & 63 Yeah, I get it, with the depth at DL, LB, etc... I like the Butler pick (maybe even better than Chris Jones in the 1st). But who are we adding in the 2nd? Does Cravens and/or Vonn Bell make it that far? If we wanted to move back up in the 2nd, how far up would #63 and 1 of our 4th rounders get us? Trade back in the 1st to pick up an extra pick, then use that to move up in the 2nd and get the guys we want. Edited April 25, 2016 by DrDareustein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Yeah, I get it, with the depth at DL, LB, etc... I like the Butler pick (maybe even better than Chris Jones in the 1st). But who are we adding in the 2nd? Does Cravens and/or Vonn Bell make it that far? If we wanted to move back up in the 2nd, how far up would #63 and 1 of our 4th rounders get us? Trade back in the 1st to pick up an extra pick, then use that to move up in the 2nd and get the guys we want. I think that there would be a reasonable chance that you could get both if that's what you wanted. If the Bills walked out of the 1st 2 rounds with something like Butler, Michael Thomas and Cravens I would be thrilled. Here is the draft value chart: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 Yeah, I get it, with the depth at DL, LB, etc... I like the Butler pick (maybe even better than Chris Jones in the 1st). But who are we adding in the 2nd? Does Cravens and/or Vonn Bell make it that far? If we wanted to move back up in the 2nd, how far up would #63 and 1 of our 4th rounders get us? Trade back in the 1st to pick up an extra pick, then use that to move up in the 2nd and get the guys we want. I don't have either Cravens or Bell making it to 49. I think there's a small chance of Correa getting there, and he'd be my ideal pick at that point. To go from 63 to, say, 43, you're talking about having to give up a 3rd round pick--a 4th round pick will help you jump about 7 spots in the 2nd round. If Correa doesn't get to 49, I think you take a long look at Tyler Boyd (if you want to go offense), or you could go with a Kyler Fackrell type if he suits your fancy. I'd be plenty willing to move from 49 to 42 using a 4th round pick if it means getting Correa. I think if you choose to go in another direction at 49, you might look to Shilique Calhoun at 63 under my scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonbrigade Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Per Drafttek trade chart 19th pick is worth Denver's 31st and 63rd picks. 31st Jarran Reed DT Alabama 49th Von Bell SS Ohio ST 63rd Kamalei Correa OLB 80th Cyrus Jones CB Alabama 117th Charone Peake WR Clemson 139th Kevin Hogan QB Stanford 156th Antonio Morrison ILB Florida 192nd Aziz Shittu DE Stanford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 I think that there would be a reasonable chance that you could get both if that's what you wanted. If the Bills walked out of the 1st 2 rounds with something like Butler, Michael Thomas and Cravens I would be thrilled. Here is the draft value chart: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/ I have Bell going 41 to Chicago right now...Cravens I just can't place. He strikes me as a TB-type, so that's a possibility, but I also think he could end up in Oakland at 44. 2nd round is so tough to predict, because that's when all kinds of trades start to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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