Crashing and burning and Bill

[Jauronimo]

I'm not sure some people have been able to put what happened last season into proper perspective: the Broncos won the Super Bowl with LITERALLY the worst quarterback in all of football. Could you make the argument that you maybe would've taken him over a handful of starting QB's in the league in the playoffs due to his experience? Sure. Maybe a handful. But dude, to make this about Tyrod Taylor again? The Bills offense finished 13th/12th in total offense/scoring. If you don't think they could've WON THE SUPER BOWL (not saying they would've but they could've- they obviously would've made the playoffs) with the 2014 Jim Schwartz defense, then I really question your football acumen. Defense is kind of important.

Its almost as if there are multiple phases to the game and QB play, albeit the most important, is just an aspect of the game.

 

If that's the way it SOUNDS then I'm being misinterpreted, which could very well be in the fault of how I've framed the argument.

 

Regardless, look, I'm with you brother. A playoff berth is our Super Bowl.

 

But here's the reality: we're in the bottom half of the league right now in cap space...and we're not paying a quarterback.

 

So, while an upward blip on the drought graph would make for a thoroughly enjoyable start to the 2017 calendar, NFL teams that experience success over the long haul are built around the quarterback.

 

And you can allocate a disproportionate amount of money to the guy because he can hide deficiencies up and down the roster, on both sides of the ball.

 

We don't have that luxury!

 

Instead, we have to hope for a dominant defense to hide our QB's limitations. That's not sustainable, and it doesn't matter who your coach is. So sitting here expecting or hoping for a top 5 defense is nice and all, but it's a lousy position to be in, given the likelihood that games are won or lost based on QB play.

 

Making the "yeah but Trent Dilfer" argument was marginalized for a reason. Just because people make it now by subbing in Peyton Manning doesn't make it suddenly valid.

 

That Broncos defense lost a couple key pieces to FA. We'll see just how sustainable that model was.

 

I have. Several times. And in several ways. I'd actually rather you clarify how you wiffed so badly at what was actually said.

What was actually said was flippant and utterly incorrect. Your pathetic attempts to wiggle out from underneath the weight of your own arrogant brand of aggressive ignorance are equally misguided.

[The Big Cat]

Its almost as if there are multiple phases to the game and QB play, albeit the most important, is just an aspect of the game.

What was actually said was flippant and utterly incorrect. Your pathetic attempts to wiggle out from underneath the weight of your own arrogant brand of aggressive ignorance are equally misguided.

 

Interesting tactic: trying to string together words you think will make you sound smart in an effort to critique the argument, rather than address anything that's actually been said. Which, again seems to have eluded you throughout this thread.

 

At least your record of providing nothing but snark, sarcasm and criticism for criticism's sake remains perfect!

It was neither flippant nor incorrect nor inconsistent with anything said before or since.

 

Tyrod Taylor, at his current level, can be complemented by a dominant defense to the meaningless tune of 10-6 and a wild card loss or complemented by another mediocre defense to the meaningless tune of another 8-8 season and another missed playoffs.

 

So, AGAIN, Tyrod Taylor, at his current level, regardless of defense, won't produce dramatically different outcomes.

Edited March 25, 2016 by The Big Cat

[GG]

Maybe it's the rosy glasses outlook, but I don't see how next year's defense will be worse.

 

Bills got nearly zero contribution from LDE spot, lost key players to season long injuries, and MLB was confused about the system.

 

Are we to assume that the new LDE will provide less than zero? Will there be more injuries? Is the MLB still going to be clueless about the system and the communication?

 

Will the defense crack top 5? Not likely. But there's no reason to think they won't be top 10 with the personnel on board. It's not like we have to rely on McCargo, Troup, & Tripplett as the defensive core.

[Jauronimo]

 

Interesting tactic: trying to string together words you think will make you sound smart in an effort to critique the argument, rather than address anything that's actually been said. Which, again seems to have eluded you throughout this thread.

 

At least your record of providing nothing but snark, sarcasm and criticism for criticism's sake remains perfect!

I addressed what you said and then you claimed not to have said it. I had to go further up thread to find your garbage about definitions of success which was particularly weak since the Denver Broncos just won a super bowl with the worst starting QB play in the NFL. I think Super Bowl champs may meet most definitions of success. You're better than this, or at least you used to be.

 

I can assure you its effortless.

[metzelaars_lives]

 

Interesting tactic: trying to string together words you think will make you sound smart in an effort to critique the argument, rather than address anything that's actually been said. Which, again seems to have eluded you throughout this thread.

 

At least your record of providing nothing but snark, sarcasm and criticism for criticism's sake remains perfect!

It was neither flippant nor incorrect nor inconsistent with anything said before or since.

 

Tyrod Taylor, at his current level, can be complemented by a dominant defense to the meaningless tune of 10-6 and a wild card loss or complemented by another mediocre defense to the meaningless tune of another 8-8 season and another missed playoffs.

 

So, AGAIN, Tyrod Taylor, at his current level, regardless of defense, won't produce dramatically different outcomes.

Tyrod Taylor was an above average QB last season. Statistically, he was WAY above average but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The Bills' offense was above average last season (again, 13th overall and 12th in scoring). He's already a top 15 QB in the NFL right now. What makes you think that he wouldn't improve in his second year as a starter? Even if they don't improve at all, a 13th ranked offense and a "dominant" defense, as you put it yourself, can win a Super Bowl. The Broncos just did it with a way worse offense than the Bills last season. What don't you understand about this?

 

I mean, forget about the Bills for a second. If you knew next year that a team would have the 13th ranked offense and, say, the 3rd ranked defense, what would you say about that team's chances? On paper, that is not a "10-6, wild card loss team." That's an excellent football team. My God, if the 2014 Bills (who were 4th, not 3rd) could've gotten 13th overall offense type of play from Orton and co., there's no telling how far they could've gone.

Edited March 25, 2016 by metzelaars_lives

[The Big Cat]

I addressed what you said and then you claimed not to have said it. I had to go further up thread to find your garbage about definitions of success which was particularly weak since the Denver Broncos just won a super bowl with the worst starting QB play in the NFL. I think Super Bowl champs may meet most definitions of success. You're better than this, or at least you used to be.

 

I can assure you its effortless.

 

"Yeah but Peyton Manning 2015" is the exact same as "yeah but Trent Dilfer 2000." They're exceptions to the rule and you know it.

 

Tyrod Taylor was an above average QB last season. Statistically, he was WAY above average but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The Bills' offense was above average last season (again, 13th overall and 12th in scoring). He's already a top 15 QB in the NFL right now. What makes you think that he wouldn't improve in his second year as a starter? Even if they don't improve at all, a 13th ranked offense and a "dominant" defense, as you put it yourself, can win a Super Bowl. The Broncos just did it with a way worse offense than the Bills last season. What don't you understand about this?

Tyrod Taylor was an above average QB in efficiency only.

Sorry, but he did not produce the volume of work needed to say he's in the top-half of the league. And that was objectively because he was hidden in Roman's scheme.

 

He was not a feature of the Bills offense.

I don't for a second think he won't improve. I don't know where you got that from.

 

I certainly don't believe it's a guarantee, though.

And I've been saying for months that QB and general offensive malaise cost the team more games in 2015 than the mediocre defense did. I shared a deep dive I did into long stretches of three and outs last year and how they, more than any other factor, were directly tied to losses.

[metzelaars_lives]

 

"Yeah but Peyton Manning 2015" is the exact same as "yeah but Trent Dilfer 2000." They're exceptions to the rule and you know it.

 

Tyrod Taylor was an above average QB in efficiency only.

Sorry, but he did not produce the volume of work needed to say he's in the top-half of the league. And that was objectively because he was hidden in Roman's scheme.

 

He was not a feature of the Bills offense.

So you're telling me that if the Bills offense performs at the same clip as last year (12-13th in the league- but again, why would they- you do realize QB's are typically better in their second year as a starter than their first year AND Sammy Watkins is going to be a complete beast, right?) and their defense is "dominant" (your words), that that's only good for a Houston Texans-like 10-6 wild card exit?

Edited March 25, 2016 by metzelaars_lives

[The Big Cat]

So you're telling me that if the Bills offense performs at the same clip as last year (12-13th in the league- but again, why would they- you do realize QB's are typically better in their second year as a starter than their first year AND Sammy Watkins is going to be a complete beast, right?) and their defense is "dominant" (your words), that that's only good for a Houston Texans-like 10-6 wild card exit?

 

I think so. Because I think--AGAIN--that complete inactivity from the offense over CONSIDERABLE stretches of NUMEROUS games (I'll post the link to this breakdown if I have time to go searching for it) had more of an impact over wins and losses than our ranking in scoring.

 

That's my opinion.

 

EDIT: here's the link: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185043-rex-wont-change/?view=findpost&p=3873518

Edited March 25, 2016 by The Big Cat

[John from Riverside]

Unless TT makes a significant improvement, it really doesn't matter if the defense finishes 2nd or 20th.

Now see I dont agree with that

 

There were games (several actually) where this defense was flat out horrid......well.....let me clarify that....horrid compared to the previous 2 years

 

I dont know if it digruntled players

 

I dont know it it was Rex and his new system

 

but that DID happen

 

Meanwhile the offense improved.....lets face it....if this offense had maintained its level of play from ITS previous year I think we are picking in the top 5 picks. We led the league in rushing and it wasnt one of those we ran every down and had a low yards per carry thing......we actually ran the ball WELL......and so the bills went with a "lets not turn the ball over a lot" approach.

 

To me this is definately on the defense to improve

 

Now...that is for playoffs.....how well we actually do when we get there is going to depend on how much Tyrod improves on things that he needed to work on

 

- Better completion percentage on 3rd down

- Ability to use the middle of the field (I thought this was getting better as the season went on)

- And it would be nice if coaches could realize when TT is just not "feeling it" from the pocket earlier in games and let him run a little bit early to get him going....what I noticed is that passing from Tyrod improved when he actually got out of the pocket on a couple of plays.....and then his whole passing tree improved.

 

That is just my opinion.

[The Big Cat]

Now see I dont agree with that

 

There were games (several actually) where this defense was flat out horrid......well.....let me clarify that....horrid compared to the previous 2 years

 

I dont know if it digruntled players

 

I dont know it it was Rex and his new system

 

but that DID happen

 

Meanwhile the offense improved.....lets face it....if this offense had maintained its level of play from ITS previous year I think we are picking in the top 5 picks. We led the league in rushing and it wasnt one of those we ran every down and had a low yards per carry thing......we actually ran the ball WELL......and so the bills went with a "lets not turn the ball over a lot" approach.

 

To me this is definately on the defense to improve

 

Now...that is for playoffs.....how well we actually do when we get there is going to depend on how much Tyrod improves on things that he needed to work on

 

- Better completion percentage on 3rd down

- Ability to use the middle of the field (I thought this was getting better as the season went on)

- And it would be nice if coaches could realize when TT is just not "feeling it" from the pocket earlier in games and let him run a little bit early to get him going....what I noticed is that passing from Tyrod improved when he actually got out of the pocket on a couple of plays.....and then his whole passing tree improved.

 

That is just my opinion.

 

Which games are you talking about? I can think of Washington and KC and may be Pats1--a game in which the offense did virtually nothing for about a quarter and a half while the Pats* took advantage of cakewalk field position and put up (I believe )17 unanswered.

But, again, against KC, for some reason, Sammy went from abusing their defense to not getting a single look in the second half. How does that happen?

The impact of LONG STRETCHES of offensive inactivity on wins and losses in 2015:

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185043-rex-wont-change/?view=findpost&p=3873518

[section122]

I'm not sure some people have been able to put what happened last season into proper perspective: the Broncos won the Super Bowl with LITERALLY the worst quarterback in all of football. Could you make the argument that you maybe would've taken him over a handful of starting QB's in the league in the playoffs due to his experience? Sure. Maybe a handful. But dude, to make this about Tyrod Taylor again? The Bills offense finished 13th/12th in total offense/scoring. If you don't think they could've WON THE SUPER BOWL (not saying they would've but they could've- they obviously would've made the playoffs) with the 2014 Jim Schwartz defense, then I really question your football acumen. Defense is kind of important.

 

It depends for the bolded. Would Jim Schwartz have the same amount of injuries? The knock on Rex Ryan has never been his defense. He has been a HC for 7 years and not had a top 10 defense 2 of those years. Last year with a new team and players who didn't fit his system accompanied with a rash of injuries and the other year he finished 11th. The knock has always been his offenses.

 

Crashing and burning is hyperbole. Even with this "terrible" defense the Bills finished 8-8. With all the injuries, with the new coaches on both sides of the ball, with a qb starting for the first time, and with the highest paid player on the team giving less than max effort the Buffalo Bills finished 8-8. One game worse than the year before and their second best record in 12 years. Seriously where does the sense of entitlement come from Bills fans that because they thought the Bills should go 10-6 that 2 less wins was a disaster and the coach needs to go. One game worse than the year before and they weren't gifted the last game of the season like Marrone was.

 

This team last year was closer to being a complete team than it has in years. Yet it was horrible and terrible and Rex is the worst coach ever. Get. A. Grip. 8-8, 9-7 the only two times the team has been over .500 since 2004.

[Jauronimo]

 

"Yeah but Peyton Manning 2015" is the exact same as "yeah but Trent Dilfer 2000." They're exceptions to the rule and you know it.

 

Tyrod Taylor was an above average QB in efficiency only.

Sorry, but he did not produce the volume of work needed to say he's in the top-half of the league. And that was objectively because he was hidden in Roman's scheme.

 

He was not a feature of the Bills offense.

Yes, they are exceptions. Once a decade exceptions. If Taylor fails to improve and we play behind a top 2 defense, maybe our ceiling is conference championship. Maybe we squeak into the super bowl and get blown out. Maybe its just a wild card game. Teams that qualify for post season play have a funny habit of making runs. The Giants limped into the playoffs twice and won super bowls. The Ravens were dead in the water and got hot at the right time. The Jets limped in with Sanchize and were a few plays away from a super bowl bid.

 

I'm of the opinion that perennial playoff team is different than middling 8-8 team and another season of anybody's guess as to record and outcome. There's a material difference between being a top unit in any phase of the game and just average. Arguing otherwise based on whether our QB play is sufficient to be super bowl favorites or just playoff likely is silly.

[The Big Cat]

Yes, they are exceptions. Once a decade exceptions. If Taylor fails to improve and we play behind a top 2 defense, maybe our ceiling is conference championship. Maybe we squeak into the super bowl and get blown out. Maybe its just a wild card game. Teams that qualify for post season play have a funny habit of making runs. The Giants limped into the playoffs twice and won super bowls. The Ravens were dead in the water and got hot at the right time. The Jets limped in with Sanchize and were a few plays away from a super bowl bid.

 

I'm of the opinion that perennial playoff team is different than middling 8-8 team and another season of anybody's guess as to record and outcome. There's a material difference between being a top unit in any phase of the game and just average. Arguing otherwise based on whether our QB play is sufficient to be super bowl favorites or just playoff likely is silly.

 

I don't altogether disagree with any of this. Other than the fact--and I'm sure you'll agree--teams can and do win and make the post season with top QB talent and a mediocre defense, but the inverse is far less likely and even less sustainable. Yes, as you've indicated it does happen, but those teams yo-yo in and out of success/relevancy.

 

The Jets are more of the exception here than the Giants or the Ravens. Since both Eli and Flacco--at their best--are far superior to Tyrod at his. Understood: this point is debatable.

[John from Riverside]

 

Which games are you talking about? I can think of Washington and KC and may be Pats1--a game in which the offense did virtually nothing for about a quarter and a half while the Pats* took advantage of cakewalk field position and put up (I believe )17 unanswered.

But, again, against KC, for some reason, Sammy went from abusing their defense to not getting a single look in the second half. How does that happen?

The impact of LONG STRETCHES of offensive inactivity on wins and losses in 2015:

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/185043-rex-wont-change/?view=findpost&p=3873518

This happens with every NFL team......even the good ones.

 

The fact is this offense was better from its previous year.....and its defense was not.

 

I admit they need to improve on 3rd down completion (and the trick plays by Roman drive me nuts) but this team led the league in rushing.

 

I don't altogether disagree with any of this. Other than the fact--and I'm sure you'll agree--teams can and do win and make the post season with top QB talent and a mediocre defense, but the inverse is far less likely and even less sustainable. Yes, as you've indicated it does happen, but those teams yo-yo in and out of success/relevancy.

 

The Jets are more of the exception here than the Giants or the Ravens. Since both Eli and Flacco--at their best--are far superior to Tyrod at his. Understood: this point is debatable.

We dont know what Tyrod at his best is just yet. That is kinda the point.

[The Big Cat]

This happens with every NFL team......even the good ones. (I)

 

The fact is this offense was better from its previous year.....and its defense was not.

 

I admit they need to improve on 3rd down completion (and the trick plays by Roman drive me nuts) but this team led the league in rushing.

We dont know what Tyrod at his best is just yet. That is kinda the point. (II)

 

I. It does not. This is entirely, and measurably false. We were worst in the league in three and outs. And as that analysis shows, they came in bunches, which is even worse.

 

II. I agree. But then again, may be we do. That is kinda the point.

[Rockinon]

I honestly think the defense just had a brain fart last year. No one seemed to know what they were doing until late in the season. It was visibly apparent later in the season that the guys were communicating better prior to the snap. Guys were getting lined up where they needed to be. Early on it was obvious that no one knew there assignment.

 

I'm pretty confident the defense will at least be top 10 and I'm hoping top 5 in the NFL. That will decide some games for us. As for the offense, I expect to see a more consistent product. Last year there were flashes but there were a lot of things they tried that didn't work.

 

No doubt the defense took a nose dive last year, but that was last year. As far as I'm concerned there is only one way to go....up.

 

For the offense they looked great at times and I'm just hoping to see an improvement.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

It's all in the name REX! Rex wrecks teams. This was a bad hire that will BURN! That is the crash and burn. Incompetence at the top. With clown twin in tow, this defense will burn. To think Blake going to fix the pass rush is to think Trump can fix Washington. I hope I eat crow on both, but fool me once... fool me twice... fool me 20 freakin times...DAMN!

 

If the Bills stay healthy and TT improves, and that is a BIG IF, there is a chance they remain competitive and put up some points, and maybe crawl to 8-8.

 

But I see mutiny. I see Rex losing control by taking control. He will implement HIS defense and the complications will slow everyone down AGAIN. Brady will shred it for 40+ and anyone with a competent QB will go for 300+ passing yards and 3-4 TD's per. There will be no sacks or turnovers again and we will be forced to abandon the run and we are supposed to be a running team. Out of our element, we keep playing catch up and just don't have the wheels of the better teams.

Throw in a few out of control stupid Jacksonville like losses and we cry the same tears another year. The only light at the end of the tunnel is IF there is a competent head coach who wins that would be willing to eat Pegs money....

 

There you have it Bills fans. I will cheer and root for our boys, but for the first time in 40+ years I may actually skip a few games and enjoy my life without spending three hours of frustration in front of the tv.

[boyst]

this argument is so tiresome.

 

we would not be having this discussion if we had been able to keep marrone or schwartz on d.

[The Big Cat]

this argument is so tiresome.

 

we would not be having this discussion if we had been able to keep marrone or schwartz on d.

 

I think the argument would have intensified, actually.

 

Marrone/Schwartz would have likely meant no TT: if, in fact, it was Rex who pushed to bring him in.

 

So who the hell would have been the quarterback? And what the hell kind of impact would he have had on wins/losses? And how much of that would have been blamed on Marrone? How much of it would have been warranted?

[boyst]

 

I think the argument would have intensified, actually.

 

Marrone/Schwartz would have likely meant no TT: if, in fact, it was Rex who pushed to bring him in.

 

So who the hell would have been the quarterback? And what the hell kind of impact would he have had on wins/losses? And how much of that would have been blamed on Marrone? How much of it would have been warranted?

i don't think it is certain that we would not have got tyrod. we needed a qb. we had more to offer than any other team. whaley needed a qb - it makes sense that tyrod would have been high on the radar.