Dorkington Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 (edited) This is the critical data and should be enough to convince teams to at least consider going for two more regularly, if not all the time. And it seems possible that a team could improve its success rate by coming up with, and practicing, a well-conceived two-point conversion package. And of course teams with kickers like Carp would benefit even more. I'm not optimistic though; this is a "play-not-to-lose" league and most coaches would be afraid of the mindless criticism from fans and announcers if the scheme doesn't work once or twice. Another data point I would like to see is the success rate when the two-point play is a run, instead of a pass. I believe the success rate is significantly higher with running plays. And you don't have to look only at this year. Two point conversions have been available from the same location for many years, so there is plenty more data available. I'm just too lazy to track it down. I come away with a different conclusion, that its not worth it for most teams. Only 10 teams averaged more than 1 point per two point conversion attempt. The Bills averaged .8 points per two point conversion, while Carp averaged .89 points per extra point attempt. Edited January 26, 2016 by Dorkington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It's an idea that both deserves serious consideration and will never happen. The stats I have seen are that the 1point conversion rate this year was 95% and two point try rate for last 3 years is about 48%, so statistically it's close to a push, but this is a "play not to lose" league so don't expect any bold moves in this area by NFL head coaches.Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Its math though...if you average 4 TDs a game and average 85% conversion rate (someone said we missed 15% of our XP attempts above, I have no idea if thats accurate or not, but using it since someone said it) then you will average 6.85 points per TD or 27.4 points per 4 TDs. 50% conversion rate on 2 pt conversion means you will average 7 points per TD, or 28 points per those 4 TDs. So mathmatically, you would average more points per game going for 2 assuming you had a less than 100% XP conversion rate and a near, at or above 50% 2pt conversion rate. In the example I used of 85% xp and 48% 2 pt conversion rates, the math still works in favor of averaging more points per TD and more points per game going for 2. Im only using averages people posted in the thread, so I didnt confirm those are accurate. And you are mathematically incorrect in your last statement. You said if you fail 50% of the time on a 2 point conversion, which is an average of 7 points per TD in that scenario. Then you said your opponents averages 95% XP accuracy, which equates to an average of 6.95 points per touchdown. So mathematically they can't beat us, not the other way around. Of course not all situations are as black and white as math makes it, but statistical averages indicate going for 2 is better overall in the scenario you said we would not win with. Problem is we didn't average 4 TDs per game, we averaged 2.75 TDs per game including defensive scores (23 passing, 19 rushing, 1 INT, 1 Fumble). The problem with applying points per TD to 2 Pt conversions is that if you don't convert you first have to score another TD, and then you have to convert just to break even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 The scenario (in our case) is a kicker who is generally "money" from 40 yds out but, for some unknown reason, has choked 12-15% of the time at the 30 for an extra point. I have a plan to fix this. When we line up for a 33 yard extra point, have a designated lineman do a false start and move us back 5 to a 38 yarder. Then again, have a different designated lineman false start. Move us back 5 to now a 43 yarder. MONEY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 I have a plan to fix this. When we line up for a 33 yard extra point, have a designated lineman do a false start and move us back 5 to a 38 yarder. Then again, have a different designated lineman false start. Move us back 5 to now a 43 yarder. MONEY! Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Individual HC's at various times make the wrong choices. We are talking about every HC (ever) choosing not to make a simple change that will supposedly yield more points than they currently get after a TD. Haven't ignored the points per try. So, you are ignoring logic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I come away with a different conclusion, that its not worth it for most teams. Only 10 teams averaged more than 1 point per two point conversion attempt. The Bills averaged .8 points per two point conversion, while Carp averaged .89 points per extra point attempt. I don't think that is sufficient data. I think you would need to look at 2-point conversion rates over at least three years to come up with a league-wide percentage. Individual teams don't attempt enough two-pointers to reach very meaningful conclusions. I'm guessing the Bills attempted less than 10 two-point conversions, which is a small sample size and not a very good indicator of what would have happened if they attempted, say, 30 two-pointers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 How about an original idea, one kicker who can kick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Billieve Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Don't you have to figure that the numbers would be altered for a team that regularly goes for two (and theoretically becomes better than average at doing so?) I think it would be more likely for Ds to det better stoping them. So, you are ignoring logic? Stats aren't logic, and stats can never be considered complete information in football. I have a plan to fix this. When we line up for a 33 yard extra point, have a designated lineman do a false start and move us back 5 to a 38 yarder. Then again, have a different designated lineman false start. Move us back 5 to now a 43 yarder. MONEY! Logic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Stats aren't logic, and stats can never be considered complete information in football. I'm just trifling with WEO a ;little. He seems to be a very "cut & dried" type to me and I find it interesting that he's on the other side of this debate. I will be very interested to see whether "stats" has any effect on how Cleveland approaches extra points next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2015/ http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/kicking/position/defense/seasontype/2 The stats are somewhat limited as far as 2 pt conversions go (Pitt was 5 for 5 and other teams showed great success) but why not forget about extra points next year?? Is a 30 yd field goal for 1 point really all that important?? Yes, I know, the Pats lost the AFC Championship game because they missed an extra point. But we missed approx 15% of our extra points this past season. I'd be interested to see if we would have won 1 or 2 more games if we had attempted 3 or 4 two pt conversions with 50% success rate in a few games (Eagles, Jags, Giants??) Dan Carpenter may be a head case but he was clutch last year. I don't think we need to take up another roster spot With a kickoff specialist. Keep Carp for field goals and train Schultz to kick off like the kid in Indy (McAfee). In the off season, come up with 10 solid 2 pt conversion plays and forget about the extra points. Just my opinion. i respect your opinion but about a million whiney spoiled Pats fans can tell you how important 1 point is. LMAO! In all honestly the rule change has made games more exciting and kickers gigs harder. Going for 2 is not a bad idea during certain situations but considering most coaches dont have to deal with Carp missing 15% of his XPs i doubt teams will go for 2 unless they have to Draft a kicker this year who can do both and free up some cap space. I bet we draft one in the 7th or supplemental draft picks. Ryan was not pleased with the carp this season he might take him off the hook and throw him back in the ocean. Problem is we didn't average 4 TDs per game, we averaged 2.75 TDs per game including defensive scores (23 passing, 19 rushing, 1 INT, 1 Fumble). The problem with applying points per TD to 2 Pt conversions is that if you don't convert you first have to score another TD, and then you have to convert just to break even. Exactly. if you miss a 2 point try you get pigeonholed into making up for that extra point all game. still if teams like the steelers really cook up some good 2point plays during the off season, i dont see why an increase in attempts would be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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