Tiberius Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Then there's this: Harbinger Man: 'The time is now to prepare' Author and Bible teacher Jonathan Cahn America. This will bring a shaking in the financial and economic realms. These tremors may spread beyond the economic realm.http://mobile.wnd.com/2015/08/harbinger-man-the-time-is-now-to-prepare/#gIbHULg8b894yxlV.99 He sort of sounds like crazy Libertarian Ron Paul http://thecrux.com/dyncontent/ron-paul-one-step-to-prepare/?cid=MKT071351&eid=MKT073836&hid=535814787&pubID=270022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 It's been far too long since someone other than myself made an Austrian inquiry. In most instances, the Austrians overestimate the effect that interest rates have on market prices. But we haven't lived in normal times in the last 6 years, so yeah, Fed policy is a bit of a grenade with a lit fuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 (edited) interesting to read what Keynes wrote about the market 80 years ago. as salient now as then: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/john-maynard-keynes-stock-market-past-week/ el- erian's take is worth noting as well: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/china-sent-global-markets-spiraling/ "This battle of wits to anticipate the basis of conventional valuation a few months hence, rather than the prospective yield of an investment over a long term of years, does not even require gulls amongst the public to feed the maws of the professional; — it can be played by professionals amongst themselves. Nor is it necessary that anyone should keep his simple faith in the conventional basis of valuation having any genuine long-term validity. For it is, so to speak, a game of Snap, of Old Maid, of Musical Chairs — a pastime in which he is victor who says Snap neither too soon nor too late, who passes the Old Maid to his neighbour before the game is over, who secures a chair for himself when the music stops. These games can be played with zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops some of the players will find themselves unseated." MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So, they worry about corporate profits. They worry about the ability of companies to continue to buy back their stock, and they reprice the market. And this is an issue, Judy, that is related to the fundamental aspect, which is, for years, now, markets have been valued well above what’s warranted by fundamentals. And by that, I mean what’s warranted by the ability of the global economy to grow. Prices have been up here. The economic conditions have been down here, and the difference has been the liquidity injected by central banks. And now we’re getting a convergence of prices back to what would be validated by economic conditions. old maid players indeed. Edited August 25, 2015 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 And the roller coaster ride continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Is that what it's called? I'm just Jed Clampett (pre oil) trying to figure things out, and I thought this gator guy, who seems to think he knows a lot could 'splain things to me. Generally speaking, there's "always" a bull market going on somewhere. When sustained over a long period (define "long") they tend to inflate beyond the fundamentals that made them attractive in the first place. Stocks were a refuge for a lot of investment dollars, in part because corporations began to hoard their cash, and the big banks were forced to by the gubment. That helped their stock prices increase because their stock was more valuable. Then, the QE policies the Federal Reserve pursued (and continues to today and at least to Q4) held interest rates incredibly low which was a disincentive to savings and further stoked the fires under stock prices. So the Fed announced they're going to hike interest rates in Q4. Kim Jung Mentally IL has a hissy fit about disco music on his border and threatens to light a fuse on some nukes he wants to deliver overnight to his distant relatives in the South. China devalued their currency which makes it harder for everyone else to sell them anything. So in this shitstorm of unwelcome news the market investors got spooked. There's a lot of other things that could be added to that stew, but fundamentally the markets were inflated. This is a real correction. It happens. The markets often go soft at the end of summer. Welcome to the end of August at the hotel ozone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 (edited) the bigger news for us retail schmucks: the market is rigged. in other news, water is wet. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/mini-flash-crash-trading-anomalies-on-manic-monday-hit-small-investors/2015/08/26/6bdc57b0-4c22-11e5-bfb9-9736d04fc8e4_story.html Edited August 27, 2015 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 the bigger news for us retail schmucks: the market is rigged. in other news, water is wet. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/mini-flash-crash-trading-anomalies-on-manic-monday-hit-small-investors/2015/08/26/6bdc57b0-4c22-11e5-bfb9-9736d04fc8e4_story. Yes, the market is rigged against wanna-be day traders who sit in their living room and wonder why they don't have the same market access as floor traders. In other news, NASCAR is rigged against your average highway driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 (edited) Yes, the market is rigged against wanna-be day traders who sit in their living room and wonder why they don't have the same market access as floor traders. In other news, NASCAR is rigged against your average highway driver. intersting. you answered before i fixed the broken link. so do those day traders include anyone that owned the vanguard etf mentioned or the is hares etf cited? i'm betting that includes some pretty average joes. and they dropped more than triple their individual components stocks. if you're ok with that then you're a bigger fool than even i imagined "the shares of the 100 companies that make up the PowerShares QQQ did not drop 17 percent. A similar break between an ETF and its stock basket was seen with the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF; its 32 percent drop came as the underlying securities were down only 9 percent. That massive gap was an incredible profitmaking opportunity for someone, most likely a major player with the fastest computers and best algorithms." Edited August 27, 2015 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 intersting. you answered before i fixed the broken link. so do those day traders include anyone that owned the vanguard etf mentioned or the is hares etf cited? i'm betting that includes some pretty average joes. and they dropped more than triple their individual components stocks. if you're ok with that then you're a bigger fool than even i imagined "the shares of the 100 companies that make up the PowerShares QQQ did not drop 17 percent. A similar break between an ETF and its stock basket was seen with the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF; its 32 percent drop came as the underlying securities were down only 9 percent. That massive gap was an incredible profitmaking opportunity for someone, most likely a major player with the fastest computers and best algorithms." Did you miss this: Mom-and-pop investors should not be tracking the markets moment by moment anyhow, said Mercer Bullard, a University of Mississippi law professor focused on securities. If you wake up one day and decide to become a day trader, but your only access is an online TD account, you deserve your fate. And I'll ask yet again, why aren't you complaining that Boeing and Airbus can build a better and cheaper airplanes than a guy in his barn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 If you wake up one day and decide to become a day trader, but your only access is an online TD account, and if you don't understand the risks and limitations inherent thereof, you deserve your fate. Fixed. I do okay with an eTrade account. But I don't pretend it's the equivalent of a high-speed day trading system. intersting. you answered before i fixed the broken link. Because I'm smart enough to compensate for your stupidity with a quick Google search. so do those day traders include anyone that owned the vanguard etf mentioned or the is hares etf cited? i'm betting that includes some pretty average joes. and they dropped more than triple their individual components stocks. if you're ok with that then you're a bigger fool than even i imagined "the shares of the 100 companies that make up the PowerShares QQQ did not drop 17 percent. A similar break between an ETF and its stock basket was seen with the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF; its 32 percent drop came as the underlying securities were down only 9 percent. That massive gap was an incredible profitmaking opportunity for someone, most likely a major player with the fastest computers and best algorithms." Explain to us how ETFs work again, and why they must track the indices precisely? And yes, I'm okay with it...because identifying arbitrage opportunities like that are how I make money trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 And if you look a bit further, you'll see that the culprit is a wayward pricing machine (queue up the lawyers): A computer glitch is preventing hundreds of mutual and exchange-traded funds from providing investors with the values of their holdings, complicating trading in some of the most widely held investments. The problem, stemming from a breakdown early this week at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the largest fund custodian in the world by assets, prompted emergency meetings Wednesday across the industry, people familiar with the situation said. http://www.wsj.com/articles/securities-pricing-problems-hit-u-s-mutual-funds-etfs-1440601913?mod=trending_now_4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 (edited) Did you miss this: Mom-and-pop investors should not be tracking the markets moment by moment anyhow, said Mercer Bullard, a University of Mississippi law professor focused on securities. If you wake up one day and decide to become a day trader, but your only access is an online TD account, you deserve your fate. And I'll ask yet again, why aren't you complaining that Boeing and Airbus can build a better and cheaper airplanes than a guy in his barn? I found that amusing because a while back I had a retired owner of a locally well-known establishment lure me over to his office (under the pretense of helping to advance my career) to try to sell me on being a work from home day trader. I don't know the angle (a pyramid scheme, I assume) but I've got a pretty good nose, and I smelled bull ****. Not that I ever for a second considered getting into day trading with this guy anyway, but it's nice to have my suspicions about the viability of his business model confirmed. Edited August 27, 2015 by Rob's House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 (edited) And if you look a bit further, you'll see that the culprit is a wayward pricing machine (queue up the lawyers): http://www.wsj.com/articles/securities-pricing-problems-hit-u-s-mutual-funds-etfs-1440601913?mod=trending_now_4 it's "rocking the mutual fund industry" per the wsj but it's of no concern to the sophisticated, above the fray, internet super pros here. why should we believe the explanation from a paper dedicated to the very people responsible for so many financial disasters for the common man? not a group of people known for their candor, honesty and ethics. if it was systematic price manipulation, do you think we'll ever hear about it? one thing is clear, however. the financial industry has some of the best old maid players around. keynes was absolutely correct. it's even easier when cheating is allowed. Edited August 27, 2015 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 it's "rocking the mutual fund industry" per the wsj but it's of no concern to the sophisticated, above the fray, internet super pros here. why should we believe the explanation from a paper dedicated to the very people responsible for so many financial disasters for the common man? not a group of people known for their candor, honesty and ethics. if it was systematic price manipulation, do you think we'll ever hear about it? one thing is clear, however. the financial industry has some of the best old maid players around. keynes was absolutely correct. it's even easier when cheating is allowed. You're using an article that talks about a mismatch in the pricing mechanism as proof that future mismatches in the pricing mechanisms will not be reported? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 You're using an article that talks about a mismatch in the pricing mechanism as proof that future mismatches in the pricing mechanisms will not be reported? no. that the true mechanisms may not be disclosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 no. that the true mechanisms may not be disclosed. You're an idiot. Note that the mispricing was immediately noticed in the market and it took a few days to discover the source. And the reason it was noticed quickly is that there's an entire industry devoted to finding price mismatches across markets and exchanges. These markets are very transparent because it's in the exchanges' self interest to be as transparent as possible to drive more trading volume. Your complaint, as always is that the retail investor gets the price one second after the large institutions get the price. Well, that's too bad. Build your own billion dollar trading operation and direct feed to the exchange, and then talk about a level playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 You're an idiot. Note that the mispricing was immediately noticed in the market and it took a few days to discover the source. And the reason it was noticed quickly is that there's an entire industry devoted to finding price mismatches across markets and exchanges. These markets are very transparent because it's in the exchanges' self interest to be as transparent as possible to drive more trading volume. Your complaint, as always is that the retail investor gets the price one second after the large institutions get the price. Well, that's too bad. Build your own billion dollar trading operation and direct feed to the exchange, and then talk about a level playing field. that's like saying that if we're playing a game of monopoly and its your game then you can have special rules applied only to you. spending billions on buying advantages should not be required to level the playing field. a level playing field should be ensured regardless. especially when many of the billions used to build the cheating apparatus came out of the accounts of the unsuspecting, regular joe 401k investors . sorry, you shouldn't be allowed to buy a game. thank goodness it rarely works in golf. i'd quit if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 that's like saying that if we're playing a game of monopoly and its your game then you can have special rules applied only to you. spending billions on buying advantages should not be required to level the playing field. a level playing field should be ensured regardless. especially when many of the billions used to build the cheating apparatus came out of the accounts of the unsuspecting, regular joe 401k investors . sorry, you shouldn't be allowed to buy a game. thank goodness it rarely works in golf. i'd quit if it did. No you idiot, it's like saying that you should pay the same rent if you land either on Baltic Ave or Boardwalk. The game is precisely the opposite of what you're describing. Pick any industry you want, the wholesaler will ALWAYS pay a lower price than the retailer. Why should the financial market be any different? Why aren't you demanding that IKEA sell you and deliver the goods at their cost? Because.. DDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 (edited) No you idiot, it's like saying that you should pay the same rent if you land either on Baltic Ave or Boardwalk. The game is precisely the opposite of what you're describing. Pick any industry you want, the wholesaler will ALWAYS pay a lower price than the retailer. Why should the financial market be any different? Why aren't you demanding that IKEA sell you and deliver the goods at their cost? Because.. DDT? no. it's like requiring ikea to pay the same tariffs and meet the same safe product regulations as ethan allen. but lets assume that the cause for the discrepancy in pricing is not nefarious (for the sake of argument). what is going to be done to make the losers in this real life scenario whole? is the gov't gonna bail them out? vanguard? ishares? the stock exchange? nope. no one will. Edited August 27, 2015 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 no. it's like requiring ikea to pay the same tariffs and meet the same safe product regulations as ethan allen. but lets assume that the cause for the discrepancy in pricing is not nefarious (for the sake of argument). what is going to be done to make the losers in this real life scenario whole? is the gov't gonna bail them out? vanguard? ishares? the stock exchange? nope. no one will. Which losers? Why are we having this discussion again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts