Predict the 53

[GunnerBill]

 

Does it matter if he qualifies as a #3 or a #4 on a team that will be playing 2 WR sets almost exclusively. And where Percy Harvin is the #3?

 

Keep in mind that last season the Bills did not have a healthy #1 WR for much of the year, no running game and a more effective passer at QB then the throwers they have now and that impacted the amount of PT and production Hogan had.

 

And in all seriousness.......what separates Hogan from journeyman David Nelson? Despite his speed he makes less plays downfield and doesn't offer a particularly large target by big WR standards.

 

I wish it wasn't so but if Hogan played to his athletic numbers he'd be a #1. Something is missing.

 

I don't disagree that he would put up very good numbers with a great QB but I think that makes him particularly special.

 

I won't be surprised either way if he makes it or gets cut.

 

To be clear I think it is his athletic gifts that make his ceiling higher than that of a David Nelson and he is still pretty "young" as a football player. This is a guy who is very much still learning and refining his game. I thought he took a big step forward last year and I believe the potential is there to take another step.

 

It would not at all surprise me if Hogan ended the year ahead of Harvin on the depth chart. I have never really bought Harvin as a true receiver and given that I think it is very unlikely he is back next year if he isn't performing in that role he could easily be jumped and used purely as a gadget type.

 

I have never argued he is "special" but I think he has demonstrated more as as an NFL player than the guys who others want to replace him with. I don't get the Goodwin love, I really don't... and if the Bills fall in love with Goodwin it is just another in a succession of little, fast, one dimensional speed receivers that we have overvalued over the course of these 15 years of futility.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

To be clear I think it is his athletic gifts that make his ceiling higher than that of a David Nelson and he is still pretty "young" as a football player. This is a guy who is very much still learning and refining his game. I thought he took a big step forward last year and I believe the potential is there to take another step.

 

It would not at all surprise me if Hogan ended the year ahead of Harvin on the depth chart. I have never really bought Harvin as a true receiver and given that I think it is very unlikely he is back next year if he isn't performing in that role he could easily be jumped and used purely as a gadget type.

 

I have never argued he is "special" but I think he has demonstrated more as as an NFL player than the guys who others want to replace him with. I don't get the Goodwin love, I really don't... and if the Bills fall in love with Goodwin it is just another in a succession of little, fast, one dimensional speed receivers that we have overvalued over the course of these 15 years of futility.

 

I agree with much of what you said but it is difficult to be a run first team which can only execute a short passing game.

 

Hogan is a fair player but he offers nothing that Sammy or Woods don't have.

 

I personally don't think Goodwin is fully committed to football yet but he can take the top off of a defense.......he has pure deep speed that Sammy and Woods do not.......and that means the secondary is taking a significant risk cheating up on the run or the short pass when he is out there .

 

IMO those two points were exemplified Friday night when he ran past the corner and the safety made a dash for the pylon rather than trying to take a kill shot angle. Problem was that once Goodwin passed the corner he looked at the safety when he should have been locating the ball and didn't give himself the opportunity to go get it.

[GunnerBill]

If Goodwin was delivering production things might be different. At the moment he remains a guy running down the field and not coming up with the football often enough.

[BADOLBILZ]

If Goodwin was delivering production things might be different. At the moment he remains a guy running down the field and not coming up with the football often enough.

 

For all the talk of how deep the Bills are at WR I actually think they only have 2 good ones.

 

The rest are projects and projections.

 

Plenty of athletic ability though.

[GunnerBill]

So here is v.4. Remember this is not necessarily what I would pick it is what I think the Bills will select. My 5th and final prediction will come the final day before final cut downs.

 

Quarterback (3):

Matt Cassel

EJ Manuel

Tyrod Taylor

 

Running Back (4):

LeSean McCoy

Fred Jackson

Karlos Williams

Anthony Dixon

Bryce Brown

 

Full Back (1):

Jerome Felton

 

Wide Receivers (6):

Sammy Watkins

Robert Woods

Percy Harvin

Chris Hogan

Marquise Goodwin

Marcus Easly

Deonte Thompson

 

Tight End (3 4):

Charles Clay

Marquise Gray

Chris Gragg

Matthew Mulligan

 

Offensive Line (8):

Cordy Glenn T

Seantrel Henderson T

Cyrus Kouandjo T

Richie Incognito G

John Miller G

Cyril Richardson G

Eric Wood C

Kraig Urbik G/C

 

 

Defensive Line (7 6):

Marcel Dareus

Mario Williams

Kyle Williams

Stefan Charles

Corbin Bryant

Red Bryant

Jarius Wynn

Alex Carrington

 

Linebacker (7):

Jerry Hughes OLB

Manny Lawson OLB

IK Enemkpali OLB

Randall Johnson OLB/ILB

Ty Powell OLB/ILB

Nigel Bradham ILB

Preston Brown ILB

Tony Steward ILB

 

Cornerback (6):

Stephon Gilmore

Leodis McKelvin

Ronald Darby

Nickell Robey

Ron Brooks

Mario Butler

 

Safety (4):

Aaron Williams

Corey Graham

Duke Williams

Bacarri Rambo

 

Special Teams (4):

Dan Carpenter K

Jordan Gay KOS

Colton Schmidt P

Garrison Sanborn LS

 

 

OUTS:-

Bryce Brown – My last update came the day after the Carolina game where Bryce Brown ran well and it looked like he had another couple of weeks to shine with others out and a chance to leapfrog Anthony Dixon on the depth chart. The injury bug hit, Boobie may well be back before him and if either of these remain I think Boobie’s special teams play will edge it for him.

Deonte Thompson – Goodwin really picked up his game second half of camp. I still see these two as an either/or and Rex’s statement about “calls” for Thompson suggests that the Bills are trying to get something back for him.

Jarius Wynn & Ty Powell – INJURY. Good luck to both and hope to see them back healthy next year. Tony Steward is the obvious beneficiary of his injury and seems to be ahead of Tarpley for the back up inside role.

Alex Carrington – if the staff was that convinced on Carrington why go and sign Red Bryant who gives them that similar Tackle / End versatility in this scheme? Seems to have had a disappointing camp and pre-season and as such I don’t think he sticks – although he might stay on the roster for week 1 given Marcel’s suspension.

 

Still in the danger zone:

Anthony Dixon - I floated the idea the other day that neither Brown nor Dixon could make the team if the Bills decide that they desperately want to keep Thigpen. His ability to play running back in a pinch and Harvin’s ability to do it in a pinch might make 4 a luxury if they need spots elsewhere – especially as Felton is a FB who can carry the ball too should they be short.

Stefan Charles - he hasn’t starred in camp and if Carrington and/or Fluellen put it together then he could still find himself odd man out – although I believe that unlikely.

Randall Johnson – Had a really poor game vs Cleveland. Buchanon is a threat for this spot.. as is them only keeping 6 linebackers .

Ron Brooks – If McKelvin was healthy Brooks would be in real trouble for me and whilst I think Leodis’ status probably keeps him on the initial 53 I don’t see him on the team by the season’s end.

Edited August 26, 2015 by GunnerBill

[TPS]

So here is v.4. Remember this is not necessarily what I would pick it is what I think the Bills will select. My 5th and final prediction will come the final day before final cut downs.

 

Quarterback (3):

Matt Cassel

EJ Manuel

Tyrod Taylor

 

Running Back (4):

LeSean McCoy

Fred Jackson

Karlos Williams

Anthony Dixon

Bryce Brown

 

Full Back (1):

Jerome Felton

 

Wide Receivers (6):

Sammy Watkins

Robert Woods

Percy Harvin

Chris Hogan

Marquise Goodwin

Marcus Easly

Deonte Thompson

 

Tight End (3 4):

Charles Clay

Marquise Gray

Chris Gragg

Matthew Mulligan

 

Offensive Line (8):

Cordy Glenn T

Seantrel Henderson T

Cyrus Kouandjo T

Richie Incognito G

John Miller G

Cyril Richardson G

Eric Wood C

Kraig Urbik G/C

 

 

Defensive Line (7 6):

Marcel Dareus

Mario Williams

Kyle Williams

Stefan Charles

Corbin Bryant

Red Bryant

Jarius Wynn

Alex Carrington

 

Linebacker (7):

Jerry Hughes OLB

Manny Lawson OLB

IK Enemkpali OLB

Randall Johnson OLB/ILB

Ty Powell OLB/ILB

Nigel Bradham ILB

Preston Brown ILB

Tony Steward ILB

 

Cornerback (6):

Stephon Gilmore

Leodis McKelvin

Ronald Darby

Nickell Robey

Ron Brooks

Mario Butler

 

Safety (4):

Aaron Williams

Corey Graham

Duke Williams

Bacarri Rambo

 

Special Teams (4):

Dan Carpenter K

Jordan Gay KOS

Colton Schmidt P

Garrison Sanborn LS

 

 

OUTS:-

Bryce Brown – My last update came the day after the Carolina game where Bryce Brown ran well and it looked like he had another couple of weeks to shine with others out and a chance to leapfrog Anthony Dixon on the depth chart. The injury bug hit, Boobie may well be back before him and if either of these remain I think Boobie’s special teams play will edge it for him.

Deonte Thompson – Goodwin really picked up his game second half of camp. I still see these two as an either/or and Rex’s statement about “calls” for Thompson suggests that the Bills are trying to get something back for him.

Jarius Wynn & Ty Powell – INJURY. Good luck to both and hope to see them back healthy next year. Tony Steward is the obvious beneficiary of his injury and seems to be ahead of Tarpley for the back up inside role.

Alex Carrington – if the staff was that convinced on Carrington why go and sign Red Bryant who gives them that similar Tackle / End versatility in this scheme? Seems to have had a disappointing camp and pre-season and as such I don’t think he sticks – although he might stay on the roster for week 1 given Marcel’s suspension.

 

Still in the danger zone:

Anthony Dixon - I floated the idea the other day that neither Brown nor Dixon could make the team if the Bills decide that they desperately want to keep Thigpen. His ability to play running back in a pinch and Harvin’s ability to do it in a pinch might make 4 a luxury if they need spots elsewhere – especially as Felton is a FB who can carry the ball too should they be short.

Stefan Charles - he hasn’t starred in camp and if Carrington and/or Fluellen put it together then he could still find himself odd man out – although I believe that unlikely.

Randall Johnson – Had a really poor game vs Cleveland. Buchanon is a threat for this spot.. as is them only keeping 6 linebackers .

Ron Brooks – If McKelvin was healthy Brooks would be in real trouble for me and whilst I think Leodis’ status probably keeps him on the initial 53 I don’t see him on the team by the season’s end.

Good job Gunner.

A couple differences. One, I think the only way Thompson is not on this team is if they end up trading him, which I doubt. I think one of Goodwin or Hogan is the loser in this scenario. Two, I think one of Brown and Boobie are gone at RB, but I'm not so sure it's Brown. Speed over brawn in this case, despite Brown's rep as a fumbler. Three, I think Carrington stays over one of either IK or Randell J. Four, I agree about Brooks, his job is tenuous, and now that Cockerel is back, he's got two preseason games to show he belongs, and I'm pulling for him over Brooks. Five, I know you were going off of the current roster, but I think they find someone on the waiver wire for the 8th OL spot.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Thanks Gunner, I like it.

 

I agree about Boobie being in danger, I think that if he is replaceable on ST then he should be released