PlayoffsPlease Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 (edited) Seattle has been to the last two Super Bowls with a QB that I believe is truly under appreciated. I frequently see posts were people say we "just need to get our Russell Wilson" as if that is significantly easier than saying we "just need our Andrew Luck". Notwithstanding their expectations coming into the league, Wilson's performance has been actually quite historic, I think people's lack of appreciation for his rarity is because they don't have a good way of factoring his rushing productivity into his other statistics. Taken plainly his his 849 yards on 118 carries made Wilson the 16th best rusher in the NFL last season. And his 7.2 yards per carry was best in the NFL for anyone with over 100 carries. (as an aside, Buddy Nix probably should have taken him to be a scatback) His 7.2 yards per carry is what caught my eye the most. This is actually better than the yards per attempt for Tom Brady and Matt Stafford. So it is not like his team is suffering if he choose to run rather than pass. To combine the rushing and passing stats, I created a new stat, I am calling QBP for QB Productivity It is simply a modification of the the NFL Passer rating formula, that treats each rushing attempt and as if it were passing attempt, and adds in the yards and TDs the QB records from his rushing attempts, and it treats fumbles lost as interceptions. This created a fairly substantial bump for handful of QBs in 2014, compared to pure passer rating, including EJ Manuel. Name Passer Rating QBP variance Russell Wilson 94.96 102.7 7.74 Jake Locker 70.95 75.87 4.92 EJ Manuel 80.26 84.57 4.3 Blake Bortles 69.51 73.69 4.18 Cam Newton 82.13 86.07 3.93 Teddy Bridgewater 85.2 87.9 2.7 Andy Dalton 83.33 85.78 2.45 Michael Vick 68.34 70.03 1.69 Drew Stanton 78.66 80.29 1.63 Ryan Fitzpatrick 95.34 96.85 1.52 Colin Kaepernick 86.19 87.63 1.44 Geno Smith 77.53 78.79 1.27 Joe Flacco 90.87 92.12 1.26 Mike Glennon 83.3 84.36 1.06 Josh McCown 70.46 71.13 0.67 Ryan Tannehill 92.8 93.44 0.64 Alex Smith 94.26 94.49 0.23 Colt McCoy 96.39 96.5 0.11 Peyton Manning 101.52 101.52 0 The main difference between Wilson and the others is that his pure passer rating is so much higher to start with. But EJ's effectiveness running in his four games was among the league leaders. You can see from the top of this chart to the bottom that Wilson was actually more productive at the QB position than Peyton Manning when factoring in his rushing ability. Edited March 31, 2015 by PlayoffsPlease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 EJ? Running QB? 3.3 ypa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 EJ should be one of the better running QB's in the league. He's huge and fast and very athletic. Why is he so bad at it? He starts running and its like he doesn't know what to do with himself. Does he get nervous? I can't figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 EJ? Running QB? 3.3 ypa... His small sample size numbers are distorted by the fact that he had 1 TD in his 16 rushing attempts. I don't hold high hopes for EJ, but the numbers fell where they fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Interesting idea, really. I don't see where this really helps EJ's case much, though. Now if Rex can get him to actually use his legs more, maybe. I also think EJ can be pretty good at passing with some time in the pocket and some designed rollouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 His small sample size numbers are distorted by the fact that he had 1 TD in his 16 rushing attempts. I don't hold high hopes for EJ, but the numbers fell where they fell. You said... " But EJ's effectiveness running in his four games was among the league leaders." But now the sample size was too small? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 Interesting idea, really. I don't see where this really helps EJ's case much, though. Now if Rex can get him to actually use his legs more, maybe. I also think EJ can be pretty good at passing with some time in the pocket and some designed rollouts. Although EJ's running (because of his 1 td) gave him a nice bump, it didn't really move his productivity number very high. The main point of the post is that Russell Wilson is a rare bird, and we are not finding another QB like him any easier than we are finding another QB like Andrew Luck. You said... " But EJ's effectiveness running in his four games was among the league leaders." But now the sample size was too small? I am not an EJ pimper. I doubt he has a successful career as an NFL QB. The numbers just fell where they fell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I think you are on to something here as one of my thoughts (hopes) re: 2015 Bills O is that though we have clear failing in terms of having a great OL that I might be that if Roman develops a good running game it on the face of it creates a big challenge for the opposing D. Opponents will have an initial choice to make whether they are going to cheat against the run by 7 or 8 defenders in the box (even a talent like McCoy gets stymied by this D particularly if our OL is average or worse). However, this commitment to stopping the run likely gives either Watkins or Harvin single coverage. A mere stop and go and an easy read by EJ of which way is the safety cheating gives us a quick TD. On the other hand, if the opposing D doubles either WR (or both) McCoy simply has to beat the first tackler and he is running with a head of steam in the second level. Now add to this quandary, EJ after making his initial read has an O which can: 1. Have Edwards do his precise route running if the D goes zone against our 3 WR set 2. The versatile Clay either focuses on blocking if our 1st option on a play is a McCoy run, or we go play action and Clay after a chip block slips into the pass pattern, or 3. EJ 's main job is to look for space and give Harvin/Watkins time to lose their coverage and Manual simply read-options his way to either run for a first or throw to the open receiver. Overall, I am not worried about our OL as EJ escapability he has shown in essence gives us an extra blocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 To help you out a little bit, I reformatted and added EJ's career numbers: Name QB Rt QBP Var Russell Wilson 94.96 102.7 7.74 Jake Locker 70.95 75.87 4.92 EJ Manuel (Tot) 78.46 83.34 4.88 EJ Manuel (2014) 80.26 84.57 4.3 Blake Bortles 69.51 73.69 4.18 Cam Newton 82.13 86.07 3.93 Teddy Bridgewater 85.2 87.9 2.7 Andy Dalton 83.33 85.78 2.45 Michael Vick 68.34 70.03 1.69 Drew Stanton 78.66 80.29 1.63 Ryan Fitzpatrick 95.34 96.85 1.52 Colin Kaepernick 86.19 87.63 1.44 Geno Smith 77.53 78.79 1.27 Joe Flacco 90.87 92.12 1.26 Mike Glennon 83.3 84.36 1.06 Josh McCown 70.46 71.13 0.67 Ryan Tannehill 92.8 93.44 0.64 Alex Smith 94.26 94.49 0.23 Colt McCoy 96.39 96.5 0.11 Peyton Manning 101.52 101.52 0 Couple things to remember when going this route... running will have a bigger impact the lower the initial QB rating is, unless said runner is really poor, or turns the ball over a lot. If you're a good passer, you're less likely to run, just by glancing at the numbers (and you know, watching football). EJ definitely has athletic ability, but he's not a huge run threat, imo. Rather he has the ability to escape a collapsing pocket. Organized by QBP Name QB Rt QBP Var Russell Wilson 94.96 102.7 7.74 Peyton Manning 101.52 101.52 0 Ryan Fitzpatrick 95.34 96.85 1.52 Colt McCoy 96.39 96.5 0.11 Alex Smith 94.26 94.49 0.23 Ryan Tannehill 92.8 93.44 0.64 Joe Flacco 90.87 92.12 1.26 Teddy Bridgewater 85.2 87.9 2.7 Colin Kaepernick 86.19 87.63 1.44 Cam Newton 82.13 86.07 3.93 Andy Dalton 83.33 85.78 2.45 EJ Manuel (2014) 80.26 84.57 4.3 Mike Glennon 83.3 84.36 1.06 EJ Manuel (Tot) 78.46 83.34 4.88 Drew Stanton 78.66 80.29 1.63 Geno Smith 77.53 78.79 1.27 Jake Locker 70.95 75.87 4.92 Blake Bortles 69.51 73.69 4.18 Josh McCown 70.46 71.13 0.67 Michael Vick 68.34 70.03 1.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Why not just use ESPN's QBR since it accounts for both rushing and passing as well as adjusts for garbage time, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Why not just use ESPN's QBR since it accounts for both rushing and passing as well as adjusts for garbage time, etc? Because that makes our QB look worse, not better. (but seriously, there's flaws with every QB metric out there, if you dig hard enough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Because that makes our QB look worse, not better. (but seriously, there's flaws with every QB metric out there, if you dig hard enough) Kind of like how people use how many 300+ passing yards in a game as the only way to judge a qb. Not saying you, just people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatszel Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 To help you out a little bit, I reformatted and added EJ's career numbers: Name QB Rt QBP Var Russell Wilson 94.96 102.7 7.74 Jake Locker 70.95 75.87 4.92 EJ Manuel (Tot) 78.46 83.34 4.88 EJ Manuel (2014) 80.26 84.57 4.3 Blake Bortles 69.51 73.69 4.18 Cam Newton 82.13 86.07 3.93 Teddy Bridgewater 85.2 87.9 2.7 Andy Dalton 83.33 85.78 2.45 Michael Vick 68.34 70.03 1.69 Drew Stanton 78.66 80.29 1.63 Ryan Fitzpatrick 95.34 96.85 1.52 Colin Kaepernick 86.19 87.63 1.44 Geno Smith 77.53 78.79 1.27 Joe Flacco 90.87 92.12 1.26 Mike Glennon 83.3 84.36 1.06 Josh McCown 70.46 71.13 0.67 Ryan Tannehill 92.8 93.44 0.64 Alex Smith 94.26 94.49 0.23 Colt McCoy 96.39 96.5 0.11 Peyton Manning 101.52 101.52 0 Couple things to remember when going this route... running will have a bigger impact the lower the initial QB rating is, unless said runner is really poor, or turns the ball over a lot. If you're a good passer, you're less likely to run, just by glancing at the numbers (and you know, watching football). EJ definitely has athletic ability, but he's not a huge run threat, imo. Rather he has the ability to escape a collapsing pocket. Organized by QBP Name QB Rt QBP Var Russell Wilson 94.96 102.7 7.74 Peyton Manning 101.52 101.52 0 Ryan Fitzpatrick 95.34 96.85 1.52 Colt McCoy 96.39 96.5 0.11 Alex Smith 94.26 94.49 0.23 Ryan Tannehill 92.8 93.44 0.64 Joe Flacco 90.87 92.12 1.26 Teddy Bridgewater 85.2 87.9 2.7 Colin Kaepernick 86.19 87.63 1.44 Cam Newton 82.13 86.07 3.93 Andy Dalton 83.33 85.78 2.45 EJ Manuel (2014) 80.26 84.57 4.3 Mike Glennon 83.3 84.36 1.06 EJ Manuel (Tot) 78.46 83.34 4.88 Drew Stanton 78.66 80.29 1.63 Geno Smith 77.53 78.79 1.27 Jake Locker 70.95 75.87 4.92 Blake Bortles 69.51 73.69 4.18 Josh McCown 70.46 71.13 0.67 Michael Vick 68.34 70.03 1.69 I am being a little nick picky here I am sure but in your writting you mention Andrew Luck but do not include in your analysis? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I am being a little nick picky here I am sure but in your writting you mention Andrew Luck but do not include in your analysis? Why? I'm not the OP, I just cleaned up his stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moshermw Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Tyrod is a better runner than EJ. By far. The great unknown - cuz there's no regular season data - is his passing acumen after four years of NFL coaching. If it's comparable - not that hard - Tyrod will beat EJ out. Keep in mind Justin Houston (KC LB in the below video) is a franchise All-Pro LB. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmW0v_plIyA&list=PLAq81tlOB_WnR9u5U5qdX4S8h6x9pNupq&index=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Tyrod? Wait til you see how he throws. Your going to be sorely disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 EJ should be one of the better running QB's in the league. He's huge and fast and very athletic. Why is he so bad at it? He starts running and its like he doesn't know what to do with himself. Does he get nervous? I can't figure it out. i suspect he was told to be careful and not run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 EJ should be one of the better running QB's in the league. He's huge and fast and very athletic. Why is he so bad at it? He starts running and its like he doesn't know what to do with himself. Does he get nervous? I can't figure it out. It seems like they were trying to keep him in the pocket in the scheme they were running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moshermw Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Tyrod? Wait til you see how he throws. Your going to be sorely disappointed. You got some video ? Are you a Ravens assistant ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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