Fadingpain Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 This thread is a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 This thread is a waste of time. Well that surely added to the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kota Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Is there an Andrew Luck in next years draft? Luck is the last shoo in NFL QB superstar and hes living up to it. If you can honestly say that there is and he would go to buffalo without pulling a redskins move then it's a bad deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 This thread is a waste of time. and yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 and yet.... F5! F5! F5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronyAbounds Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 (edited) It's really quite simple. If the Bills would have screwed up the pick they had in 2014 and the pick they would have had in 2015, its a good trade. If they are competent drafters, it is very unlikely that Watkins, no matter how good, would contribute more to the team than two mid-level first round picks and a fourth round pick. Given their history with the draft, they probably would have blown one or both of the first round picks, so getting one relatively sure thing is probably the best, although as long as the Bills have mediocre at best talent at QB and O-Line Watkins' value at best will be maybe 2 wins a year, which doesn't get the Bills the playoffs. On the other hand two quality 1st rounders in 2014 and 2015, along with a decent player in the 4th round almost certainly gets you more wins down the road. Football isn't basketball where one player can completely change a team's prospects, there are lots of positions to fill. Megatron is the best there is, and the Lions have made the playoffs exactly once while he has been there (and while they are 5-2 thus far this year, he has been a non-factor). The Bills need to hope AJ Green is a better example, although the Bengals have a better situation at QB and O-Line than the Bills do, and even so they haven't made it out of the WC round. Edited October 23, 2014 by IronyAbounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Is there an Andrew Luck in next years draft? Luck is the last shoo in NFL QB superstar and hes living up to it. If you can honestly say that there is and he would go to buffalo without pulling a redskins move then it's a bad deal. F5! F5! F5! I think we kinda screwed the pooch well before Bills "had to draft a QB " in Manuel . Bills are just plain in a tough spot at the QB postion. Was an issue before Fitzpatrick. We were a perennial losing franchise with decent draft positioning. Buddy was no help allowing this to come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On the other hand two quality 1st rounders in 2014 and 2015, along with a decent player in the 4th round almost certainly gets you more wins down the road. Let's use this example and plug in players. Is it safe to say that Greg Olsen is a pretty good 1st round TE? I don't think that Ebron reaches that level (I think Gresham is more like it) but let's use Olsen for the case (and to be generous to those that are against it). Next year the Bills will be looking at a guard 1st IMO. Let's use Kevin Zeitler for this spot. The 4th round picks are so hit and miss but we can use Ross Cockerill (as he was this year's 4th). We can use Julio Jones for Sammy as that is who he is most often compared to and has shown signs. Would a team be better with Olsen, Zeitler and Cockerill or Julio Jones? I still think that it's Julio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Actually, to be fair to your post: there is not "1" QB that won the Super Bowl Drafted out of the 1st round from that list, there are 3: Brady, Brees, and Wilson. As to the OP's original point, despite the sarcastic and caustic tenor of the post, to the substance I agree regarding the value of the Watkins trade but disagree about needing a top 10 1st Round pick to get your Franchise QB, as shown my statements above. Furthermore, not only recent history, but a longer term of NFL history shows that not only do you not need a top 10 Franchise QB to go to or win a Super Bowl, but far more 2nd and 3rd round, or later, QBs have taken their team to the Super Bowl and some have even won them. Too many to list, but basically, especially true in today's NFL - the QBs at the college level who win and show great potential don't always translate to the NFL. IMHO, the skill-set required is very different. That's why I'm an advocate of the BILLS ignoring all QBs in a spread option Offense or Run option Offense. Fully and carefully scout the QBs in a Pro Style Offense ONLY, and do all your homework on JUST those QBs, no one else. To me, it reduces the sample size, allows the scouts to focus on just those QBs with more information and evaluation and it reduces the learning curve at the NFL level...just my two (and maybe a half) cents. > Fully and carefully scout the QBs in a Pro Style Offense ONLY, and do all your homework on JUST those QBs, no one else. That's a tempting idea. The three traits the Bills should look for in a QB are these: - accuracy - the ability to rapidly process large amounts of information - passion for the game In addition to the above, he needs to avoid deal-breakers in other areas. This means he needs to have a credible set of physical tools, no history of serious off-field issues, etc. Stuff like this does not determine his upside. His upside is determined primarily by the three factors listed above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The Bills have had one franchise QB since the team was created: Jim Kelly. That's comparable to other AFC East teams: Patriots: 1.5 (Brady, and the first half of Bledsoe's career) Dolphins: 2 Jets: 1 (Namath) Those franchise QBs account for all the AFC East's Super Bowl wins, and nearly all its Super Bowl appearances. Having a Jim Kelly or a Dan Marino fundamentally changes the equation for your team. The Bills don't have that at the moment. What they have is Kyle Orton. Orton is currently ranked 16th best in terms of air yards per attempt. Solid quarterback play yes, but not as solid as a franchise QB would have provided. For the early part of Favre's career, his main target was Sterling Sharpe. Sharpe was considered to be in the same general category as Michael Irvin, Andre Reed, or Jerry Rice. Then Sharpe went down with a career-ending injury. You'd think Favre's yardage totals would have taken a beating. But no. If anything, he may have actually increased his passing yardage after he lost Sharpe. An elite quarterback is far more important than an elite WR. The question is whether any QBs in the 2014 or 2015 draft would have provided a significant long-term upgrade over what Kyle Orton has to offer. I don't know enough about college football to be able to answer that question. If by drafting Watkins the Bills lost out on their chance to take the second franchise quarterback in team history, the trade was a mistake. But if none of the QBs available to them would have been much better than Orton, then it was a good move. A team should have star players--elite playmakers--and Watkins is certainly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Well I guess if "most likely" we won't find a good QB in the mid first round, we should never bother drafting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Let's use this example and plug in players. Is it safe to say that Greg Olsen is a pretty good 1st round TE? I don't think that Ebron reaches that level (I think Gresham is more like it) but let's use Olsen for the case (and to be generous to those that are against it). Next year the Bills will be looking at a guard 1st IMO. Let's use Kevin Zeitler for this spot. The 4th round picks are so hit and miss but we can use Ross Cockerill (as he was this year's 4th). We can use Julio Jones for Sammy as that is who he is most often compared to and has shown signs. Would a team be better with Olsen, Zeitler and Cockerill or Julio Jones? I still think that it's Julio. Hat happened with Cockerill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Well I guess if "most likely" we won't find a good QB in the mid first round, we should never bother drafting one. It is worse to draft the wrong guy in the top 1/2 of the 1st round than to not draft one. In recent years Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennesse and to a lesser extent Miami and St. Louis have swung and missed. Each of those teams would have been better with virtually anyone other than Ponder, Gabbert, etc...If there is an Andrew Luck that is one thing but if there isn't you better be sure that you are drafting Cam and not Locker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 It is worse to draft the wrong guy in the top 1/2 of the 1st round than to not draft one. In recent years Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennesse and to a lesser extent Miami and St. Louis have swung and missed. Each of those teams would have been better with virtually anyone other than Ponder, Gabbert, etc...If there is an Andrew Luck that is one thing but if there isn't you better be sure that you are drafting Cam and not Locker. The problem isn't the wasted pick but the decisions of coaches & GMs to forego opportunities to improve the position because they're too invested in their mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The problem isn't the wasted pick but the decisions of coaches & GMs to forego opportunities to improve the position because they're too invested in their mistake. Absolutely, how many starts does Locker have? Does anyone think that guy is a franchise QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 (edited) It is worse to draft the wrong guy in the top 1/2 of the 1st round than to not draft one. In recent years Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennesse and to a lesser extent Miami and St. Louis have swung and missed. Each of those teams would have been better with virtually anyone other than Ponder, Gabbert, etc...If there is an Andrew Luck that is one thing but if there isn't you better be sure that you are drafting Cam and not Locker. Then why draft QB's at all? There's risk and reward. To simplify it as, "the odds aren't great you'll find a franchise QB outside the top 5," is a terrible argument. Absolutely terrible. Please be clear that I'm not talking just the Sammy trade here. You're basically dead in the the water without a good QB in the NFL. Just because the odds are lower doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. Especially if you feel like the guy can be "the guy." Let's look at it within the frame of the Bills (I'm assuming Orton isn't the answer for the sake of my argument). Right now, we have a pretty good roster. In the next 3-5 years, we will lose some (more) high-priced free agents, run into salary cap issues, miss on a few draft picks, and IF we're really lucky, only have a marginally less talented team by 2017. My basis for this is I believe we've peaked in terms of our "talent." Now, with no QB, what will happen? A steady decrease in talent until we either tank on purpose while hoping the #1 prospect is Luck-esque, or we get lucky on a flier QB outside of the top 10. One of those things need to happen to make a Superbowl run/have some stability with coaches and at the QB position. Basically, to have our sights on higher things than 8-8 every year. Now, barring a tank, we have no choice but to roll the dice on a riskier prospect. That's a given. Today, there are more franchise QB's who didn't hit the jackpot to have a top 3 pick with a great prospect than top 3 pick studs. Rodgers, Flacco, Wilson, Kaep, Cutler, Dalton, Brady, Brees, Foles, Big Ben, Romo all outweigh the Lucks, Newtons and Mannings. Even if you take into account the busts or so-so guys taken in the top 3. Are there higher risks without a top 3 pick? Sure. Does that mean it doesn't happen, or can't happen? Nope. So why take yourself out of the game and not take ANY QB's when the only reasonable course of action to have success is to take a shot? Can you really tell me you wouldn't feel better if we had Garropolo rounding out our 3 QB's? The problem isn't the wasted pick but the decisions of coaches & GMs to forego opportunities to improve the position because they're too invested in their mistake. Absolutely, how many starts does Locker have? Does anyone think that guy is a franchise QB? I also wanted to say that this is a great point. I don't believe in the 1,000 attempts rule that many go by. Locker did not deserve a 3rd year to get to 1k. neither did Gabbert, and neither did Bradford. Bradford was a more understandable situation, because they had to invest such a huge amount of money into him,. This offseason, I was torn on whether I wanted the Bills to draft another QB or not. I thought EJ showed enough to guarantee a commitment to him, and yet, his year was basically an "incomplete." His penchant for injury was a concern, and I wouldn't have faulted the Bills for a second if they took a flier on Garropolo, Murray, McCaron etc. etc. If, for whatever reason, EJ got hurt again, we would still have had some hope that a franchise guy existed on a roster. Waiting until the entire world is telling you that the guy sucks is waiting too long. Edited October 23, 2014 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 it was a bad idea with EJ but with Kyle we can get one 2016 if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offsides#76FredSmerlas Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 4-3? Now it's dead as door nail. It's over. You were never right about the Watkins trade(just like you'll never be right about many things....fracking comes to mind). Lay. It. Down. First let me define the premise(read: nonsense) properly. This should take care of any "but I didn't mean/say that" excuses: Drafting Sammy Watkins, and giving away next year's 1st and 4th(note the proper use of math, logic, the dictionary, and grammar in saying that precisely, and therefore: correctly) to Cleveland, removes(d) the option for the Bills to draft a franchise QB in the first round of 2015's draft. This premise was as nonsensical on the DAY of the 2014 draft as it is today. Yet, on WGR and elsewhere, this nonsense has been said, over and over, by people who seem to struggle in their understanding of the Bills, the AFC East, the draft and the NFL as a whole. Need proof? As of now, the Bills most likely outcome to this season is 8-8. (I know, not a record anyone wants to hear, but this is about math). Please click here: http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html See the first "What if" chart, find the column labeled "Count", and understand that the largest count, out of 212k simulations is: 8 wins. Are we good? Let's move on then. As many of our informed posters KNEW on draft day, as Whaley said on draft day, our 2015 pick was never going to be in the top 5, and had a very low propensity to be in the top 10. This directly contributed to the decision to make the trade for Watkins. Why is this key fact so important? Answer: because the top 10 is where your franchise QBs are MOST LIKELY to come from, by a lot. And remember the premise: we're supposed to get a FRANCHISE QB with the 1st we gave up. Yes, I am aware of Russel Wilson, and Colin Kapernick. In response, I will remind the strugglers that Wilson was drafted with a 3, Kap with a 2, and we have given NEITHER of those picks to Cleveland for Sammy Watkins. In all cases, the most likely place to get a "franchise QB" remains the top 10. And, let's not forget the cause that is Sammy Watkins, and his now obvious effect...on the value of the draft picks we gave away for him = it drops every week. Given what we've seen of Sammy, it should be obvious that he himself may be a major contributor to keeping us out of the top 15, never mind 10. The Buffalo Bills have always had a minimal chance of drafting in the top 10 in 2015. The defense was simply too good. The O skill players were too good. The O, even in shambles, statistically had more chances to score, with shorter fields to manage, and too many weapons. This is why the premise above has always been statistically absurd. We have 9 games left, and only winning 4 of them, against our remaining schedule, I submit as a VERY pessimistic assessment. But, that's fine, it makes my point. Even with a pessimistic outlook going forward: we were never going to get the QB we wanted with the draft picks we lost. Now, we have a real, not simulated, record of 4-3. We cannot lose those 4 wins. If we assume 8-8, find the chart at the very bottom of the link, find 8 wins in the 1st column, look across to see the mode at 8 is 26, find the column heading 17-->as of today, we are most likely to draft at 16. (The reverse order of the chart) Which QB, who is better than EJ, would we have been able to draft at 16 in 2015? Answer: nobody. We already drafted a QB at 16, didn't we? This premise has always relied on the magical thinking that a franchise QB was going to get past the top 5, never mind down to 16, and that is why it's absurd. The Bills were never a top 5 team, very unlkely to be a top 10 team, and now, by the most likely #s, we aren't even a top 15 team. Now.....enough with this ridiculous crap. It was never right, and with each passing day, it gets more absurd. Every win makes me smile for lots of reasons. The tiniest reason I smile? It continues to prove the silliness of the premise above, and those who said/keep saying it. I think the Bills thought they had something in EJ and they still might believe this; otherwise they don't make this deal to get Watkins. Everything else said is blah, blah, blah... Think about this, if we don't pick up Orten, Dixon, and Brown we might be a bottom 10 team even with a defense. We had a defense last season and that didn't help us much from being bad. Also, the way things are going I think the Bills are going to keep Orten and try to develop EJ for at least another year. If a QB they love in the next few years falls in their lap they may go for it but I don't think they are all worried about trying to get a franchise guy. Watkins was a good move; sometimes you need to gamble and this gamble will pay off for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 (edited) Getting Sammy makes us mediocre versus crappy bad. So not trading for him would have made us terrible and we would have the number 1 pick next year. But now we traded to get him making us better and screwed up the 2015 draft. Extreme tounge and cheek on the above response Edited October 23, 2014 by bills_fan_in_raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garion Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The first round is a fifty fifty proposition at best (okay roughly) to get a multi year starter the draft for QBs even in the first round is worse then a 50/50 even ignoring Manuel. If you can get a definitive star isn't that better then two "might turn out to be okay and have a small chance of being a star" guys? This wasn't the RGIII Ricky Williams or Herschell Walker trade we didn't mortgage the entire future for Sammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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