Red zone troubles

[Gugny]

Another stat is last year we were 29th in red zone td percentage and this year we are again 29th....

 

Just an example of it being a fair question

It is absolutely a fair question. And many people have made great points.

 

I'm simply holding off on worrying until the Bills are unable to put the ball in the end zone when they need to.

[GunnerBill]

In my opinion looking at the coaches film on my game pass subscription.... Eric Wood has been poor in both games in run blocking so far. He seems incapable of getting any push.

[NoSaint]

 

It is absolutely a fair question. And many people have made great points.

 

I'm simply holding off on worrying until the Bills are unable to put the ball in the end zone when they need to.

 

One might say several of the early drives in miami shouldve been spots that you need to.... against a division rival, getting 3 instead of 7 several times can haunt.

 

but i totally understand what you are getting at. im not losing sleep over it either, mostly just curious to see how it plays out. it was one of my "keys to the season" that needed to show improvement to be a playoff contender coming into the year. i think we should end up better than last year, but i didnt like seeing the ball get in just once last week, and that once being what might have actually been a turnover. hopefully this week they get the shout song playing more often!

[DrDawkinstein]

It is absolutely a fair question. And many people have made great points.

 

I'm simply holding off on worrying until the Bills are unable to put the ball in the end zone when they need to.

 

I definitely think it's a fair question as well. But Im not "worried" about it either, for the simple reason that both Marrone and the players have mentioned it as an area that needs improving. In the past years, we would have instead heard some coach-speak about how it's hard to score in the NFL, yadda yadda yadda. Whaley and this new regime/team seems to be much more on the same page as the fans than previous FOs. They see the same needs we do.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

It wouldn't surprise me that there is a strong correlation between redzone efficiency and QB play.

 

Really good QBs make big plays in tight windows in the redzone. Until we see EJ do that, we won't be all that good in the redzone.

[DrDawkinstein]

It wouldn't surprise me that there is a strong correlation between redzone efficiency and QB play.

 

Really good QBs make big plays in tight windows in the redzone. Until we see EJ do that, we won't be all that good in the redzone.

 

When the coach calls 3 running plays in a row to settle for a FG, how can the QB be more efficient?

[GG]

When the coach calls 3 running plays in a row to settle for a FG, how can the QB be more efficient?

 

For the sake of a coherent discussion, can we agree to only talk about the first three quarters red zone drives?

 

I think everyone agrees that the red zone possessions in the fourth quarter were influenced by more factors than running up the score.

[DrDawkinstein]

For the sake of a coherent discussion, can we agree to only talk about the first three quarters red zone drives?

 

I think everyone agrees that the red zone possessions in the fourth quarter were influenced by more factors than running up the score.

 

The drives I (and Marrone in the presser) are referring to, ARE the ones in the first three quarters where the coaches purposely played it conservatively and took the points over risking an early turn over. Our passing TD scoring drive actually came late in the game.

 

NoSaint, a post of yours just disappeared (hopefully by your own choice), but I just wanted to say I dont disagree with it. It's surely due to QB play, and the coaches wanting to keep his development on the upswing. But Im putting my confidence in that theyll get there eventually. I like that they are taking babysteps with him, and relying on their strength, making smart decisions and playing soundly. So far, so good. Hopefully they can keep it going.

[Gugny]

For the sake of a coherent discussion, can we agree to only talk about the first three quarters red zone drives?

 

I think everyone agrees that the red zone possessions in the fourth quarter were influenced by more factors than running up the score.

Good idea.

 

So the first 3 appearances ended up with FGs. However, Miami was clearly doing nothing on offense and the Bills were clearly having little trouble moving the chains. So - yes - one or two TDs would have been nice. But still not necessary to risk taking at least 3 off the board, due to it being early in the game.

 

Fast forward to Miami's only TD, making the score 16 - 10. Bills' ensuing drive's red zone plays: Fred run; EJ back to pass, runs; EJ throws TD to Sammy.

 

They needed to score a TD on that drive and they play-calling showed that - in those situations - they can and will be more aggressive.

Edited September 18, 2014 by Gugny

[NoSaint]

 

 

The drives I (and Marrone in the presser) are referring to, ARE the ones in the first three quarters where the coaches purposely played it conservatively and took the points over risking an early turn over. Our passing TD scoring drive actually came late in the game.

 

NoSaint, a post of yours just disappeared (hopefully by your own choice), but I just wanted to say I dont disagree with it. It's surely due to QB play, and the coaches wanting to keep his development on the upswing. But Im putting my confidence in that theyll get there eventually. I like that they are taking babysteps with him, and relying on their strength, making smart decisions and playing soundly. So far, so good. Hopefully they can keep it going.

 

it was by own choice - i was going to swap how i worded it to make sure not to spark an EJ debate... i like playing it safe and letting him build confidence, but i also know you cant take points off the board consistently as a strategy to protect him, especially if we arent running well in the redzone. its a fine line and i think they have landed on both the good and bad side of it at times in the last year. of course, that starts to get into questions like what they think of EJ really making a difference in where that line actually exists.

 

 

Good idea.

 

So the first 3 appearances ended up with FGs. However, Miami was clearly doing nothing on offense and the Bills were clearly having little trouble moving the chains. So - yes - one or two TDs would have been nice. But still not necessary to risk taking at least 3 off the board, due to it being early in the game.

 

Fast forward to Miami's only TD, making the score 16 - 10. Bills' ensuing drive's red zone plays: Fred run; EJ back to pass, runs; EJ throws TD to Sammy.

 

They needed to score a TD on that drive and they play-calling showed that - in those situations - they can and will be more aggressive.

 

well i like the sentiment, to a degree -- 3 trips to the redzone resulting in 9 points is not success in any way shape or form. no matter what miami does, by only putting up 9 on 3 successful drives you have opened the door for it to be a dog fight with them even getting a fluke play to score.

 

even if you lose out somewhere atleast a TD, FG and turnover results in 10 points and a miami team likely starting with poor field position on the TO. when you get to the redzone 3 times in the first half "atleast we didnt end up with only 6" is not a winning strategy in this league.

Edited September 18, 2014 by NoSaint

[DrDawkinstein]

it was by own choice - i was going to swap how i worded it to make sure not to spark an EJ debate...

 

I feel ya, and probably a wise move for around here.

 

i like playing it safe and letting him build confidence, but i also know you cant take points off the board consistently as a strategy to protect him, especially if we arent running well in the redzone. its a fine line and i think they have landed on both the good and bad side of it at times in the last year. of course, that starts to get into questions like what they think of EJ really making a difference in where that line actually exists.

 

It's a process. Kid just finished his 12th career game. Sure, we can't do what we've done forever and they will need to take steps forward. But one could argue that we've seen them be even more conservative than in situations last year where EJ was able to get the job done. The whole season is a process and progression. Go Bills!

[GG]

Good idea.

 

So the first 3 appearances ended up with FGs. However, Miami was clearly doing nothing on offense and the Bills were clearly having little trouble moving the chains. So - yes - one or two TDs would have been nice. But still not necessary to risk taking at least 3 off the board, due to it being early in the game.

 

 

I don't think it's an issue of settling for three due to conservative playcalling in the first half, which was the case late in the game. It was poor play by the OL in short quarters to give the runners any openings, and EJ misfiring on three passes.

 

I didn't mind Hackett's playcalling in the first half, because it was clear that with Dolphins weakness at LB and strength at DL he wanted to wear the line down for late in the game. But they needed to come away with a 7 on at least one of those drives. Having a 9-0 lead, with fins getting the 2nd half kickoff was not a comfortable place to be, especially since they moved the ball effectively in their first two 3Q drives.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

When the coach calls 3 running plays in a row to settle for a FG, how can the QB be more efficient?

 

At the end of the game there, we were just milking the clock, so I don't blame that on poor redzone play.

 

In the Miami game, however, EJ had a couple of chances-- he missed on a fade to Mike Williams, and then that seam route to Sammy Watkins. I don't mean to knock EJ (who I think has played very well so far), but ultimately our offensive efficiency in the redzone is going to be based almost entirely on how well he does down there, and how much the coaches trust him to call and make plays that guys like Manning, et al. make.

[DrDawkinstein]

At the end of the game there, we were just milking the clock, so I don't blame that on poor redzone play.

 

In the Miami game, however, EJ had a couple of chances-- he missed on a fade to Mike Williams, and then that seam route to Sammy Watkins. I don't mean to knock EJ (who I think has played very well so far), but ultimately our offensive efficiency in the redzone is going to be based almost entirely on how well he does down there, and how much the coaches trust him to call and make plays that guys like Manning, et al. make.

 

Im not talking about the end of the game, where our passing TD drive actually occurred. Im talking first half.

 

On the Williams fade, yes, it could have been a better throw, but the conservative gameplan was not a secret to our QB. Erring on the side of throwing it away over throwing it short and getting picked off is the right decision there. Put it up high and out of reach and see if Williams can make a play.

 

As far as that Watkins play goes... Im not convinced that Sammy didnt straighten his post route into a seam once he saw the Safety lurking back there. He was already playing through some SERIOUS pain, and part of me thinks he wasnt willing to go get that ball and take the shot at that point. If he runs a post there, it's an easy TD.

 

We'll never know for sure, but both scenarios are as equally as likely imo.

 

I ultimately dont disagree with your post. Our Red Zone play must get better, especially from our QB. Im just saying there are other factors besides the QB play.

[NoSaint]

 

As far as that Watkins play goes... Im not convinced that Sammy didnt straighten his post route into a seam once he saw the Safety lurking back there. He was already playing through some SERIOUS pain, and part of me thinks he wasnt willing to go get that ball and take the shot at that point. If he runs a post there, it's an easy TD.

 

 

i dont think sammy is unilaterally changing his routes based on his ribs. he and ej both have reads and those reads have to be the same. if he is, its a whole different issue and calling his number in the redzone is bordering on reckless if you cant count on him to get to where he needs to.

[GG]

I ultimately dont disagree with your post. Our Red Zone play must get better, especially from our QB. Im just saying there are other factors besides the QB play.

 

And this is precisely why all threads jump on the EJ tangent (yes, I'm guilty). That's why there's the kid gloves approach to EJ. But you cannot simply wash those plays away. The entire point of playing it close to the vest and try to minimize his mistakes is the hope that he can execute a good portion of the plays in the red zone when they are needed. Especially when the play call is a safe one. On Sunday in the first half, in the red zone, he made three bad throws when he needed to make decent throws.

The reason those plays are magnified is because they came on third downs.

[Gugny]

I don't think it's an issue of settling for three due to conservative playcalling in the first half, which was the case late in the game. It was poor play by the OL in short quarters to give the runners any openings, and EJ misfiring on three passes.

 

I didn't mind Hackett's playcalling in the first half, because it was clear that with Dolphins weakness at LB and strength at DL he wanted to wear the line down for late in the game. But they needed to come away with a 7 on at least one of those drives. Having a 9-0 lead, with fins getting the 2nd half kickoff was not a comfortable place to be, especially since they moved the ball effectively in their first two 3Q drives.

Under normal circumstances, I'd agree with this 100%.

 

The only difference (to me) is that we've got a 2nd year QB with less than a year's worth of experience.

 

You say "they needed to come away with a 7 on at least one of those drives." You felt that we needed it; I felt that we needed it; likely, most Bills fans felt that we needed it.

 

Turns out, they didn't need it.

 

There were 7 red zone appearances. I agree that EJ, on the first two, could have been better. I still maintain that he played well and protected the ball, securing the FG attempts.

 

Red Zone Passing:

 

1 - 0/1 - FG

2 - 0/2 - FG

3 - 1/2 - FG

4 - 1/1 - TD

5, 6, 7 - 0/0 - FG, FG

 

Note: Zero interceptions

 

Note 2: Dixon is the only RB who had red zone success. That was one 10-yard run. CJ and Fred did nothing in the red zone. Most of their carries were for zero or negative yardage.

 

Is that play-calling, poor line play or poor RB performance?

Edited September 18, 2014 by Gugny

[DrDawkinstein]

i dont think sammy is unilaterally changing his routes based on his ribs. he and ej both have reads and those reads have to be the same. if he is, its a whole different issue and calling his number in the redzone is bordering on reckless if you cant count on him to get to where he needs to.

 

Im not saying it was that big of a change, just a minor straightening out. That pass was juuuust barely out of reach for a WR like Watkins. If both players were just a couple of inches off, we easily end up missing that play like we did.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Im not saying it was that big of a change, just a minor straightening out. That pass was juuuust barely out of reach for a WR like Watkins. If both players were just a couple of inches off, we easily end up missing that play like we did.

 

i stand by that if he is changing his routes to avoid hits and its causing he and EJ to not be on the same page its a big deal. especially when we have a qb we are trying to teach to throw to a spot.

 

it could be what happened, but i hope not, and dont think it is. especially in the red zone, a few inches can be the difference between 7 points and a turnover.

Edited September 18, 2014 by NoSaint

[thewildrabbit]

I'm not as concerned as much about EJ, and whether or not to go for FG's when the offense stalls in the red zone. For me, what my biggest concern is the line not getting the push needed on running plays so that the QB doesn't need to carry the game by himself. Its all about the running game being good enough to support the QB which allows the offense to not have to depend on the young QB to make plays.

 

Its about balance, and the offense being able to continue to move the chains if the opposing defense shuts down one aspect of the offense.

 

Miami's run defense is currently ranked 13th, and Chicago's is ranked 29th.

 

33 rushes for 193 yards against Chicago in netting a 5.84 avg is outstanding, - Then take away the 2 big run plays by Jackson (38) & Dixon (47) that amounted to 85 yards, and you have a less desirable 3.48 YPC avg. We know that the Bears defense was really bad last year, and they look to be about that same way this year.

 

Same thing with Miami, 33 rushes for 113 yards is 3.42 YPC avg, then take away the big run by Spiller for 52 yards, and you have a horrid 61 yards on 32 carries which equals 1.90 YPC average. So, lets say the Dolphins are a top run defense.

 

Doesn't it concern anyone but me that the Bills simply can't continuously sustain winning games by getting lucky on a big run now and again. That run game needs to improve, and not just in the red zone. The Bills need to be able to run the ball effectively in any situation. We know the Bills have some of the very best RB's in the league. So, something else needs to drastically improve. JMO.