1billsfan Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 This is just purely a stat goal exercise and has nothing to do with intangibles and/or turnovers that don't show up on a stat sheet yet account just as much for wins and losses sometimes. Before this first game, I want to just put it out there what my expectations are for Manuel given the state of the Bears defense, our skilled position players, EJ Manuel's current point on the QB learning curve and this game being on the road. I think it's pretty safe to say that the Bears will have a bottom 3rd defense in the NFL. It's also safe to say that while Manuel is far away from a franchise QB, this is his second year as a pro QB and the expectations for production do increase. IMO in regards to EJ's stats at the end of the Bears game...a bad to horrible game would be 0-1 TD, an ok to good game would be 2 TDs and a great game would be 3 TDs. I don't mind a couple of interceptions as long as they are on deep passes in accordance to an aggressive vertical attack throwing the ball downfield 6-8 times in the game. Given our WRs, the Bills should at least break even with TD to INTs in that department. The reason I posted this is because I think it's important to have a guideline of expectations now that the rosters are set. It may seem obvious, but I think that there's been so much constant bashing of EJ Manuel here, the expectations of what he can or will do against the Bears are much lower then they honestly should be. I would hope that Manuel looks at this Bears defense and believes that he probably will end up having 2-3 TDs by the end of the game. I think the Bills offense should score between 20-28 points on the road against this defense. However, this being the first game it might end up being a lower point total due to opening day jitters. BTW, this is all based on the offensive line doing at least an average job in run and pass blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 One TD passing, one rushing TD by CJ, 3 or 4 FGs. Defense will do the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) One TD passing, one rushing TD by CJ, 3 or 4 FGs. Defense will do the rest. Against this Bears not so good defense, that would make me worry that nothing has changed in regards to not scoring TDs in the red zone. I'd take the win, but the feeling good level would not be very high. Edited September 1, 2014 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloriles Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloFan68 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I originally predicted an opening day loss to Chicago but I now feel that we will win this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filthymcnasty08 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) The thing about pre-season is that it takes away the key element that a late-starter, 2nd half, best under pressure QB feeds off. This is primarily why I have solid hope that EJ is going to be somewhere from good enough to better than expected. (2 TD Passes, one non-costly INT) He will be able to settle down and settle in over the course of a full game. I am looking for ANY improvement in accuracy on the long ball over last year, better footwork, better decisions and the presence of a guy that is in command of things. ANY uptick whatsoever…ESPECIALLY on the road. Edited September 1, 2014 by filthymcnasty08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Number of passing TDs over the course of one game isn't very telling. Overall success of the offense is. I mean, if Manuel leads them down to the 2 yard line a couple times and Fred pushes it in for the actual score is that somehow a debit against EJ? If we're going to talk statistical milestones, I'd love to see 65% completion with at least 7.0 yards per attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 Number of passing TDs over the course of one game isn't very telling. Overall success of the offense is. I mean, if Manuel leads them down to the 2 yard line a couple times and Fred pushes it in for the actual score is that somehow a debit against EJ? If we're going to talk statistical milestones, I'd love to see 65% completion with at least 7.0 yards per attempt. That's why I referred to it as a guideline. Nothing's set in stone in terms of whether he's seen as having had a horrible game all the way up to a great game since football stats never tell the whole story. Obviously (sorry), the bold would garner him huge amounts of credit for those TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdogtim Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'll settle for ej handing it off 45 times and going 12 for 18 for 175 yards and one td to mw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'll settle for ej handing it off 45 times and going 12 for 18 for 175 yards and one td to mw Agree. They should beat on the Bears defensive line with the running game and keep Cutler off the field. Take a few shots on second and short if you want. This game will be a win as Cutler gets sacked five times and EJ plays a clean unspectacular game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26TrapDraw Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Agree. They should beat on the Bears defensive line with the running game and keep Cutler off the field. Take a few shots on second and short if you want. This game will be a win as Cutler gets sacked five times and EJ plays a clean unspectacular game. I think that this offense is talented enough that if EJ has a so so day we can still pull it out. The key is jumping out early and then pound the rock. Our D can take care of the rest. If EJ can have an average to slightly above average day every week this team can make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 That's why I referred to it as a guideline. Nothing's set in stone in terms of whether he's seen as having had a horrible game all the way up to a great game since football stats never tell the whole story. Obviously (sorry), the bold would garner him huge amounts of credit for those TDs. I understand that, I just think that there are better guidelines when it comes down to a single game. If you were talking about an entire season, I'd put more weight on the number of touchdowns and especially the TD/INT comparison. Things normalize over 16 games, and if EJ can't put up, say, 24 TDs this season it'll be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Against this Bears not so good defense, that would make me worry that nothing has changed in regards to not scoring TDs in the red zone. I'd take the win, but the feeling good level would not be very high. The Bills will move the ball but stall a few times. Hence all the FGs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fergie's ire Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I KNOW this is wishful thinking, but I keep thinking about that Jets team of a couple years ago. Their offense was a joke, had to get some last minute tackle off the scrap heap and couldn't score at all in the preseason. They played us in the first game, and we had just signed Super Mario who was going to crush them. I think the media speculation was about whether the Jets would be able to cross mid-field....and then they went out scored like 85 points against us (at least it felt that way)....I just keep hoping we can have that kind of turnaround from pre-season to the first game and EJ throws 3 or 4 touchdowns. Hey, it COULD happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Number of passing TDs over the course of one game isn't very telling. Overall success of the offense is. I mean, if Manuel leads them down to the 2 yard line a couple times and Fred pushes it in for the actual score is that somehow a debit against EJ? If we're going to talk statistical milestones, I'd love to see 65% completion with at least 7.0 yards per attempt. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I understand that, I just think that there are better guidelines when it comes down to a single game. If you were talking about an entire season, I'd put more weight on the number of touchdowns and especially the TD/INT comparison. Things normalize over 16 games, and if EJ can't put up, say, 24 TDs this season it'll be telling. This with less then 30 attempts and 100+ yards on the ground = I will be happy. The win should happen with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) Number of passing TDs over the course of one game isn't very telling. Overall success of the offense is. I mean, if Manuel leads them down to the 2 yard line a couple times and Fred pushes it in for the actual score is that somehow a debit against EJ? If we're going to talk statistical milestones, I'd love to see 65% completion with at least 7.0 yards per attempt. Agree. Edited September 1, 2014 by BillnutinHouston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LB3 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 3 TD's! Manuel gets it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 I understand that, I just think that there are better guidelines when it comes down to a single game. If you were talking about an entire season, I'd put more weight on the number of touchdowns and especially the TD/INT comparison. Things normalize over 16 games, and if EJ can't put up, say, 24 TDs this season it'll be telling. I'm not so sure about that. Unless you're the Seattle Seahawks, in today's NFL your QB's passing TD totals = Wins and Playoff Appearances for the most part. Especially with the new rules of actually calling a lot more pass interferences. IMO this goes for single games and season long totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swnybillsfan Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 i am thinking we gave the rest of the nfl a false sense of security and confidence. when the regular season arrives, this offense will be unleashed upon the world. ej will throw for three tds and run for another one, putting a bears defender on his @$$ in the process. why does he end up with 3 passing tds and 1 rushing td? because he wants to leave some bear meat for the rest of the team! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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