Forget big WR's with the first pick, draft Eric Ebron

[Kirby Jackson]

My point was last year the Bills were able to find star talent in the draft, in free agency, and in a trade for the defense. Kiko, Manny Lawson, Alan Branch, and Jerry Hughes.

 

OTOH, look what happened with the O line last year. They regressed under a supposed O line guru in Doug Marrone. 16th in run blocking, 28th in pass blocking!

 

The Bills need an elite RT, they need an elite LG. That is, if they ever want to become a viable playoff team that can contend with the (always in the playoffs) NE Patriots.

 

 

Another point I made was that Seattle secondary is elite because of their HC Pete Carroll!! Who is an ex-defensive backs coach who got his first pro job with the Buffalo Bills in 1984 as such, and since has been a DC with the Jets & niners. A head coach with the Jets & Patriots before he became the HC at USC.

 

Did you notice a drop off in the play of that Seattle defense this year under new DC Dan Quinn, compared to 2012 when Gus Bradly was the DC. Bradly was the HC of the Jags last year.

 

Like I posted in an earlier post that you must have missed,

"One of the distinguishing characteristics of Seattle’s defense is the supersized secondary, one that features plenty of taller and heavier defensive backs. But Carroll said it’s difficult to replicate that group.

 

“Everybody would like to longer, taller guys that run 4.4,Carroll said. “But there just aren’t many humans like that in the world. It’s rare when you find them. Then you have to develop them."

 

We’ve been doing it for a long time and always been looking for longer guys because we have such a commitment to bump-and-run press corners. "

 

http://itiswhatitis....t-to-replicate/

 

The Seahawks didn't need to select DB's with #1 picks, as they looked for a certain height, weight, speed, and then developed them.

 

The fact is the Buffalo Bills don't possess a coach anywhere near as good as Carroll.

 

The Buffalo Bills currently have two #1's draft picks at CB, two #2's draft picks at Safety. A top ten defense, a #5 against the pass. The #2 pass rush in the NFL. Yet, are no where near as dominate as the Seahawks on defense.

We totally agree that the Bills did a miserable job addressing LG. They just did not try to get a serviceable replacement. Apparently they are really high on JJ Unga as a player so he probably fills one of the 3 spots. I also agree that Carroll is a great coach. I am still not seeing the correlations? Seattle's OL was bad last year and they won the Super Bowl. You need good roster, not a good position group.

 

The Bills have a few holes at least. The value of RT or ILB in the 2nd is much better than pass rusher for example. So if you needed a pass rusher you take them at 9 because they are harder to get at 41 than a LG, ILB or RT is. Look at the mock drafts and tell me how many S, ILB, OG, RT, RB or run stuffing tackles are projected in the top 15?

[thebandit27]

Draft an OT and play him on the right side. See who is better, Glenn or the rook. You have years to decide with the rookie cap. Pay RT LT money? I think this gap is closing and I have no problem investing significant money at both ends of the OL. We'll see what the future brings, but teams recognize they need to block speed rushers off both sides of the line as Ds get more complex and DEs become pass rush specialists in the pass happy NFL. Last year OL talent went quick with six of the first eleven guys drafted being OL. We need premier talent on the OL and not servicable guys. IMO Glen is not premier talent, but could develop further. Pears is not servicable. None of our OL are currently premier talent. I like Wood, but he needs to step it up. I'd like to see OT, WR, OG in the first three rounds and address LB through FA. Resign Chandler at TE who is servicable and I like Moeaki provided he is healthy. He seems able to play every other year so 2014 should be a go.

 

Borrowed from another thread.

 

eartheLosing, on 14 February 2014 - 12:27 PM, said: Three of the top four players in last years draft were all OT's, and all three played RT

1. Chiefs, OT Eric Fisher played RT- playoffs
   
2. Jags, OT Luke Joeckel played RT
   
3. Dolphins, OLB
   
4. Eagles, OTLane Johnson played RT-playoffs
   
5. Lions, DE
   
6. Browns, OLB
   
7. Cardinals, OG Jonathan Cooper- finished 10-6
   
8. St Louis, WR
   
9. Jets, CB
   
10. Titans, OG Chance Warmack
    
11. Chargers, OT DJ Fluker, played RT- playoffs
    

So, out of the first 11players taken in last years draft four were OT's, two were OG's. You figure it out!

 

And from that same thread, my response:

 

Fisher of KC nearly lost his job half way through the season.

Joeckel of Jax started 5 games before getting injure for the season, during which time the Jags were 0-5

Lane Johnson started on an OL that allowed 46 sacks (2 fewer than Buffalo)

Jonathan Cooper did not play a down for the Cardinals, yet they made the playoffs with a bunch of cast-off OLmen

Chance Warmack was widely panned as a huge disappointment for a Tennessee team who's running game got approximately 0% better despite adding he and Levitre (they finished behind Buffalo in YPC)

D.J. Fluker - nice rookie season...I supposed 1 out of 6 ain't bad huh?

 

Kirby Jackson has done a fine job of explaining things...the folks that don't agree with "OL or bust" aren't wrong, they just base their opinions on facts, not age-old adages like "it all starts up front".

 

The whole "no WR can succeed if the QB keeps getting sacked" thing is ridiculous. There's plenty of proof:

 

- Antonio Brown had no trouble catching 110 passes for 1,500 yards despite Pittsburgh giving up 43 sacks (5 fewer than Buffalo)

- Andre Johnson had 109 catches for 1,400 yards despite Houston allowing 42 sacks (6 fewer than Buffalo)

- Josh Gordon lead the NFL with almost 1,700 yards on 87 catches despite Cleveland allowing 49 sacks (1 more than Buffalo)

 

I could go on with the Vincent Jackson's and Torrey Smith's of the world, but you get the point.

 

I can hear it now: "but those are all LOSING teams...those guys only racked up stats because their teams were behind and threw like crazy".

 

Indeed.

 

How about these guys:

 

- DeSean Jackson amassing 1,300+ yards on 82 catches despite Philly allowing 46 sacks, or his teammate Riley Cooper having a career year

 

Or any of Julian Edelman, Michael Floyd, and a few others.

 

"But Bandit, sacks don't always tell the story you know"

 

You're right. There'a also pressures to look at...for example:

 

- T.Y. Hilton had 82 catches for 1,083 yards, yet Indy gave up 109 QB hits, more than Buffalo's 108

- Both Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline had over 70 catches, and had 930 and 1,016 yards respectively, despite 100 QB hits allowed.

 

Lastly, if we're to go by "advanced stats" like, say, PFF's often-espoused OL rankings, we see some serious divergence. For example:

 

- Oakland rushing for 4.6 YPC (6th in the NFL) despite ranking 22nd in the NFL in run blocking

- The Jets rushing for 4.4 YPC (10th) despite ranking 30th in the NFL in run blocking

- The Colts allowing only 32 sacks (6th fewest) despite ranking 28th in pass blocking

etc. etc. etc.

 

The point is, the idea that the OL needs to be excellent, great, or even above-average in order for any other player on the field to do their job is, quite simply, not accurate. Does this mean tha the OL shouldn't be improved? Of course not. It does, however, mean that it doesn't take priority over other needs.

[#34fan]

I get visions of the word "BUST" in red block letters whenever someone mentions Eric Ebron in the 1st. I know he's fast, but I just can't see round one talent there. -OR round two for that matter... Lotta holes in his game. -Not to mention hands issues... Not a true get-me-what-I-need TE, IMO.. I like him in round three, maybe even four... Wouldn't really think about him before that.

[Cash]

And from that same thread, my response:

 

Fisher of KC nearly lost his job half way through the season.

Joeckel of Jax started 5 games before getting injure for the season, during which time the Jags were 0-5

Lane Johnson started on an OL that allowed 46 sacks (2 fewer than Buffalo)

Jonathan Cooper did not play a down for the Cardinals, yet they made the playoffs with a bunch of cast-off OLmen

Chance Warmack was widely panned as a huge disappointment for a Tennessee team who's running game got approximately 0% better despite adding he and Levitre (they finished behind Buffalo in YPC)

D.J. Fluker - nice rookie season...I supposed 1 out of 6 ain't bad huh?

 

Kirby Jackson has done a fine job of explaining things...the folks that don't agree with "OL or bust" aren't wrong, they just base their opinions on facts, not age-old adages like "it all starts up front".

 

The whole "no WR can succeed if the QB keeps getting sacked" thing is ridiculous. There's plenty of proof:

 

- Antonio Brown had no trouble catching 110 passes for 1,500 yards despite Pittsburgh giving up 43 sacks (5 fewer than Buffalo)

- Andre Johnson had 109 catches for 1,400 yards despite Houston allowing 42 sacks (6 fewer than Buffalo)

- Josh Gordon lead the NFL with almost 1,700 yards on 87 catches despite Cleveland allowing 49 sacks (1 more than Buffalo)

 

I could go on with the Vincent Jackson's and Torrey Smith's of the world, but you get the point.

 

I can hear it now: "but those are all LOSING teams...those guys only racked up stats because their teams were behind and threw like crazy".

 

Indeed.

 

How about these guys:

 

- DeSean Jackson amassing 1,300+ yards on 82 catches despite Philly allowing 46 sacks, or his teammate Riley Cooper having a career year

 

Or any of Julian Edelman, Michael Floyd, and a few others.

 

"But Bandit, sacks don't always tell the story you know"

 

You're right. There'a also pressures to look at...for example:

 

- T.Y. Hilton had 82 catches for 1,083 yards, yet Indy gave up 109 QB hits, more than Buffalo's 108

- Both Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline had over 70 catches, and had 930 and 1,016 yards respectively, despite 100 QB hits allowed.

 

Lastly, if we're to go by "advanced stats" like, say, PFF's often-espoused OL rankings, we see some serious divergence. For example:

 

- Oakland rushing for 4.6 YPC (6th in the NFL) despite ranking 22nd in the NFL in run blocking

- The Jets rushing for 4.4 YPC (10th) despite ranking 30th in the NFL in run blocking

- The Colts allowing only 32 sacks (6th fewest) despite ranking 28th in pass blocking

etc. etc. etc.

 

The point is, the idea that the OL needs to be excellent, great, or even above-average in order for any other player on the field to do their job is, quite simply, not accurate. Does this mean tha the OL shouldn't be improved? Of course not. It does, however, mean that it doesn't take priority over other needs.

 

Great post! I think most of us in the "no OL at #9" camp could live with an O-line pick at #9 depending on who else was available, especially since Whaley has slammed the door on taking a QB. For me, if both Watkins and Evans are off the board, and one of the top 3 OTs is still there, then by all means take the OT. It would fill a need, provide some injury insurance for Glenn, and help EJ's development. But I'd much rather have a WR with a wide catch radius who can turn some of EJ's inaccurate throws into big completions.

 

And some of these OL-or-bust posts are crazy. People are seriously pointing to Seattle as the model of how to win a Super Bowl on the back of your O-line? That only works if you ignore every objective rating of Seattle's O-line and assume that because they won the Super Bowl, they must have a good O-line. PFF rated them 26th in the league last year! Football Outsiders rated them 9th in adjusted line yards (pretty good!), but dead last in both power success (3rd or 4th and short) and pass blocking. If you're looking for an elite O-Line for us to aspire to, keep looking.

[thebandit27]

Great post! I think most of us in the "no OL at #9" camp could live with an O-line pick at #9 depending on who else was available, especially since Whaley has slammed the door on taking a QB. For me, if both Watkins and Evans are off the board, and one of the top 3 OTs is still there, then by all means take the OT. It would fill a need, provide some injury insurance for Glenn, and help EJ's development. But I'd much rather have a WR with a wide catch radius who can turn some of EJ's inaccurate throws into big completions.

 

And some of these OL-or-bust posts are crazy. People are seriously pointing to Seattle as the model of how to win a Super Bowl on the back of your O-line? That only works if you ignore every objective rating of Seattle's O-line and assume that because they won the Super Bowl, they must have a good O-line. PFF rated them 26th in the league last year! Football Outsiders rated them 9th in adjusted line yards (pretty good!), but dead last in both power success (3rd or 4th and short) and pass blocking. If you're looking for an elite O-Line for us to aspire to, keep looking.

 

I totally agree--I don't have a problem with OL at 9 if they deem it to be the best player on the board. I'm more concerned with adding elite talent to the team regardless of position...that's what the best teams do.

[Kirby Jackson]

I totally agree--I don't have a problem with OL at 9 if they deem it to be the best player on the board. I'm more concerned with adding elite talent to the team regardless of position...that's what the best teams do.

Can I join your club?

[Damian]

FYI-->Ebron broke Vernon Davis's ACC record for yards in a season by a TE (973 vs 871).

Edited February 26, 2014 by Damian

[thebandit27]

Can I join your club?

 

Do you like...

 

Bacon?

Desserts?

Bills' football?

Exercising (or pretending to exercise while chatting and objectifying members of the gender in which you are romantically interested)?

Tailgating?

 

If so, then answer the following question correctly, and you're in:

 

What is the greatest holiday in the world, and why?

[thewildrabbit]

We totally agree that the Bills did a miserable job addressing LG. They just did not try to get a serviceable replacement. Apparently they are really high on JJ Unga as a player so he probably fills one of the 3 spots. I also agree that Carroll is a great coach. I am still not seeing the correlations? Seattle's OL was bad last year and they won the Super Bowl. You need good roster, not a good position group.

 

The Bills have a few holes at least. The value of RT or ILB in the 2nd is much better than pass rusher for example. So if you needed a pass rusher you take them at 9 because they are harder to get at 41 than a LG, ILB or RT is. Look at the mock drafts and tell me how many S, ILB, OG, RT, RB or run stuffing tackles are projected in the top 15?

Sorry to the OP for sidetracking this thread about TE Eric Ebron

 

It didn't matter that the Seahawks had the 26th ranked offensive line. Because they possess a read option QB in Russell Wilson who is not only very mobile. but adds an extra dimension to the offense when he runs the read option. Opposing defenses needed to try and contain him, and they didn't do a very good job of it.

 

Like I said earlier 31 other NFL teams are kicking themselves for passing on Wilson.

 

OTOH the Bills stated they would run the read option and because of EJ's multiple injuries they never even tried.

 

 

You seem to be missing the fact that the Bills found several very good starting DEFENSIVE players in free agency, the draft, and in a trade. Yet, had some of the very worst players in the NFL for the O line.

 

Stating that, it should be far easier for the team to find one or two LBers the very same way they did last off season. Thus allowing them to draft for the O line, and offense.

 

Can I join your club?

[#34fan]

FYI-->Ebron broke Vernon Davis's ACC record for yards in a season by a TE (973 vs 871).

 

 

I get that he's good. What i'm saying is, I'm not sure how effective a pro he would make... Honestly, you have to give Bryn Renner SOME credit for Ebron's success... Despite having a relatively weak arm, Renner was johnny-on-the-spot with some of those throws... I watch the games, I think "nice throw by Renner" But hey, I'm still looking into it.. He could be first round bust, OR this could just be a case of me NOT wanting to take a TE @9...

[chris heff]

While Glenn had a very good year, and looked to be a force at LT. His skill set at LT is not where his strength is at, and that could be a factor in the future. Allow me to explain.

 

Glenn was a force at LT, and looks like a lock to keep his job. He isn't yet up to elite LT status tho. With such a weak link next to him at LG all year defenses focused on that position, and against RT Pears who they knew is not all that good. 108 hits, 48 sacks. for the season.

 

With a top LG next to him ( like Yanky, Su'a-Fulio, Jackson) then that position won't be the weak link and Glenn could see a whole lot more pressure on that edge.

 

 

 

The Bills fielded a very mediocre O line in 2013. they graded (-12.5) overall, which is not very good!

 

Center Eric Wood had a down year mostly because he missed his support on the left side in Andy Levitre. He still brings it every game and is a solid starter. Not elite.

 

Right guard Kraig Urbik played outstanding in a lot of games last season. But there were also games where he fell on his face. This type of thing can't happen every road game, or against a playoff team. Now, his play could get better once there is a solid RT next to him, or not. average starter that needs upgrading. graded in the red against the Patriots (-2.1)

 

Left guard Colin Brown graded (-30.1),and his back up Sam Young were both disasters. Both were cut after week 6, and replaced by the backup center. Doug Legursky finished that Patriot game (-2.1), and graded (-8.1) for the year. This position needs a serious upgrade!

 

Right Tackle Erik Pears graded (-2.5) against the Patriots. Like Urbik played well in some games, and in others fell on his face. This type of play can't be happening with a good team. needs a replacement.

 

If you look at the stats for all those running plays they ran 70% of the time at mid guard. Meaning that even as good as Glenn was at pass blocking, his run blocking left much to be desired.

 

 

Should the Bills draft an OT at the #9 spot. I would think that they would start him at RT, and see how he develops. Taylor Lewan would be a perfect replacement for Pears at RT. Greg Robinson, and Jake Matthews who are both slated to start at LT might fall to Buffalo too. Wouldn't it be nice to have solid starters, and some decent depth?

Although I disagree with some of this, I'm not going to dispute it. However you are excluding the human factor. Robinson, Mathews, Lewan and Glenn all believe they are left tackles and should be paid as such. Based on what your saying if they draft either Robinson or Mathews, then Glenn eventually goes to RT, which means in two years he is gone and they are back to looking for a RT. Lewan is not going to be happy about being drafted to spend half his career at RT.

[3rdand12]

Do you like...

 

Bacon?

Desserts?

Bills' football?

Exercising (or pretending to exercise while chatting and objectifying members of the gender in which you are romantically interested)?

Tailgating?

 

If so, then answer the following question correctly, and you're in:

 

What is the greatest holiday in the world, and why?

Geez pretty elite club huh ?

Too much effort involved for me .

[thewildrabbit]

Although I disagree with some of this, I'm not going to dispute it. However you are excluding the human factor. Robinson, Mathews, Lewan and Glenn all believe they are left tackles and should be paid as such. Based on what your saying if they draft either Robinson or Mathews, then Glenn eventually goes to RT, which means in two years he is gone and they are back to looking for a RT. Lewan is not going to be happy about being drafted to spend half his career at RT.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a dilemma similar to that situation in which the Bills have two quality players worthy of playing LT?

 

Like I said, although Glenn was very good at pass blocking last season. He also left much to be desired with his run blocking. The Bills did have slightly better success running to the left side over the right side. But that's not saying much.

 

Left end 6%-Left tackle 11%- mid guard 71%-Right tackle 10%-right end 3%

 

Teams generally build a dominate left side to protect the QB's blindside. Glenn is massive at 6'6''345, and was a dominate run blocker in college. Glenn would be his most dominant if he played guard or right tackle in the NFL. To the tune of "all pro" dominate, IMHO.

 

The Bills were 28th in pass blocking, 16th in run blocking last season. They need some serious talent on that line.

[johnwalter]

i think bills fans are under-rating the role that marrone has in mind for tony moeaki. judging by the way 1bd discussed moeaki last december, the fo sees him as the offensive equivalent of an alan branch / manny lawson signing. combine that with the facts that the bills don't seem interesting in heavily investing in non-premium positions (see: safety w/ byrd, guard w/ levitre) and that its looking like good tight ends can be had in the second/third round and i doubt very highly that ebron is on bills radar at nine.

 

also, I may be wrong but it feels like the bills have gone after drafting intense, intelligent players recently and ebron does not seem to fit the bill ( ).

[thewildrabbit]

i think bills fans are under-rating the role that marrone has in mind for tony moeaki. judging by the way 1bd discussed moeaki last december, the fo sees him as the offensive equivalent of an alan branch / manny lawson signing. combine that with the facts that the bills don't seem interesting in heavily investing in non-premium positions (see: safety w/ byrd, guard w/ levitre) and that its looking like good tight ends can be had in the second/third round and i doubt very highly that ebron is on bills radar at nine.

 

also, I may be wrong but it feels like the bills have gone after drafting intense, intelligent players recently and ebron does not seem to fit the bill ( ).

Moeaki could be a real steal "IF" he can stay healthy! Or this could be another "lights out" experiment gone wrong.

 

Perhaps his known injury status is one reason why Marrone / Whaley are trying to hire new trainers, I dunno.

 

Ebron had been graded anywhere from the top 10 to top 20. Lots of teams past the top 10 are drooling over this kid. He could be the next Jimmy Graham / Vernon Davis

Edited February 27, 2014 by FeartheLosing

[johnwalter]

Moeaki could be a real steal "IF" he can stay healthy! Or this could be another "lights out" experiment gone wrong.

 

Perhaps his known injury status is one reason why Marrone / Whaley are trying to hire new trainers, I dunno.

 

Ebron had been graded anywhere from the top 10 to top 20. Lots of teams past the top 10 are drooling over this kid. He could be the next Jimmy Graham / Vernon Davis

 

would you prefer ebron to matthews, lewan, and evans?

[RK_BillsFan]

I read an article somewhere that Ebron had pretty poor hand, also that the bills really liked the TE from ND

[C.Biscuit97]

would you prefer ebron to matthews, lewan, and evans?

 

I jumping into your conversation but personally, I'd rate them Evans, Ebron, Matthews, Lewan. But I'm sure he would go Ots first, Evans, and then Ebron. Just a hunch.

 

I get that he's good. What i'm saying is, I'm not sure how effective a pro he would make... Honestly, you have to give Bryn Renner SOME credit for Ebron's success... Despite having a relatively weak arm, Renner was johnny-on-the-spot with some of those throws... I watch the games, I think "nice throw by Renner" But hey, I'm still looking into it.. He could be first round bust, OR this could just be a case of me NOT wanting to take a TE @9...

 

Well, I guess you need someone to throw the ball so the QB gets some credit. But UNC's QB held Ebron back from monster numbers. With a legit NFL type college QB, he would have been a monster. Is Renner even going to get drafted?

[Cash]

Ebron kind of scares me at #9. If they do wind up going that route, I'll watch a bunch of highlights and try to convince myself he's the next Jimmy Graham, but right now, I don't like it. I think the Vernon Davis comp is pretty legit (he's definitely not the athlete VD is, but might be more skilled to make up for it), and if you guaranteed me he would have Vernon Davis' career, I still think I might prefer Evans. Don't get me wrong, Davis is a good player, and he's had some good seasons, but he's also been fairly inconsistent, and he's not a guy I fear if I'm going up against his team. If the 49ers had had a decent WR or two during his time with the team, I don't think his numbers would be quite as good, either. I dunno, I just don't see Ebron as a gamebreaker type TE, and I don't think he'll be a strong blocker, and at that point, I'd rather roll the dice at #9. I think I'd prefer one of the top OTs over Ebron, frankly. The other thing that scares me is his drop rate. I still have flashbacks of Lonnie Johnson and Robert Royal dropping away catch after catch.

 

I totally agree with the sentiment of going after a big-time TE, especially since most of our WRs are young and won't really get better without plenty of playing time. But I don't think Ebron is the guy to justify that high of a pick. I don't think he'll ever be All-Pro or earn his way into the Pro Bowl*. Plus, I tend to agree with another poster's sentiment that Marrone probably wants more of an in-line TE who can help the run game than a guy like Ebron or Amaro who was in the slot 80% of the time.

 

*I say "earn his way into" because with the Pro Bowl being an even bigger joke now than ever, and with both Super Bowl teams ineligible from the get-go, it's not tough to wind up with a 3rd or 4th alternate making it onto the final squad. I could see Ebron squeaking in that way, but I'm looking for more than that with a top 10 pick in what appears to be an excellent draft.

[Trader]

I am not in the Ebron camp. I am not sure he fits in with the Bills from a personality standpoint and he really was more of a Wide out that an in line guy in college. His 40 time at the combine was 4.6 very good for a TE but not so great for a WR and he lined up more often at WR or H back in college. His hands and route running are suspect. Assuming Watkins is gone I like Evans better. Better speed, better hands and better demeanor. Evans gives you the same or better red zone threat. He is a good blocker. You could line him up at TE or H back in special situations. The only way I would draft Ebron is if they traded down and he was the BPA.