Mock Draft - 3.0 Updated 3/16/14 (Major Changes) on PG. 4

[Packerland Bills Fan]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

 

You can downgrade the position a little, but at some point the talent becomes too great to ignore and getting an OT to upgrade over Pears is a need. I don't know if Matthews is truly the best player in the draft, but he is one of the best 3.

[Section242]

Very interesting article. Thanks for linking it!

 

This ones a little more dated but same idea http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--left-tackle-in-the-nfl-is-gradually-become-a-less-valued-position.html

[Prickly Pete]

Why do so many people want to automatically throw a first pick at whatever problem the Bills have?

 

The first pick is best used on a great prospect, not your biggest problem. They already have a really good LT, and the other O-line problems can be taken care of without necessarily using the 9th overall pick.

 

I think the Bills are fortunate in this way, in that they just need one player to complete each area.. Their major problem areas can all be upgraded to "average" without reaching with the first pick, or using a high pick foolishly.

 

O-line - get a decent lineman. Another backup wouldn't hurt either. They are out there (maybe even already in Buffalo, but haven't developed yet. It can take a while).

 

CB - They need depth. Can't have a guy like Justin Rogers out there, getting picked on, and ruining the rest of the season. There are decent guys out there every off season. A veteran FA with a little gas in the tank would work fine, and there is always one of those guys out there.

 

Inside Linebacker - Again, there is a run-stuffing specialist out there somewhere, that won't break the bank.

 

WR/TE - they need a big guy that can operate well in the red zone. Again, a specialist type receiver can work.

 

If there is a great prospect that can fill one of these holes, wonderful. But any one of them can be upgraded to a decent level without a top pick. Find the guy that will have the biggest impact on the team.

[Max997]

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/30/nfl-offensive-tackles-rethinking-the-blind-side-and-position-value/

 

Taking an offensive lineman early in the draft is a waste of a pick.

 

Couldn't disagree more

 

Who has the best line in the NFL? Most would probably say San Fran...how many former first round picks do they have on their line?

 

I could care less what the recent trend is, football is still football and you need to be able to run and protect the quarterback

[Section242]

Couldn't disagree more

 

Who has the best line in the NFL? Most would probably say San Fran...how many former first round picks do they have on their line?

 

I could care less what the recent trend is, football is still football and you need to be able to run and protect the quarterback

 

Stats say SF line is below average, http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol . New England has a good line.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Section242

[Solomon Grundy]

 

 

So you'd rather take the 2nd or 3rd ranked WR instead of the top ranked OT?

 

We desperately need OL help in the worst way. Legursky is a tire fire and Pears has regressed and is in the final year of his contract. The time is now to upgrade and Whaley has an oldschool philosophy that you build a team from the inside out.

 

An OT is not a sexy pick but it fills a major need and it's how good teams win games.

 

 

 

Not a fan. I love getting Gabe Jackson and the potential of Garoppolo, though.

 

Don't think they're going WR in 2nd. Garoppolo's value is gonna rise after Senior Bowl, no way he's lasting til 5th.

 

 

 

Couldn't disagree more

 

Who has the best line in the NFL? Most would probably say San Fran...how many former first round picks do they have on their line?

 

I could care less what the recent trend is, football is still football and you need to be able to run and protect the quarterback

 

NE line isn't so bad either, don't remember too many high picks on their line. It all comes down to scouting. You can get good talent later. Need "game changers" early.

[TXBILLSFAN]

First crack at it this year.

 

1. Houston Texans - Johnny Manziel / QB / Texas A&M - This is a no brainer if you ask me. The Texans need a QB. Schaub seems to have fallen apart and Case Keenum, a Houston product, does not seem to be the long term answer. The Texas born and raised Manziel would not only pack the house, but he would be the building block of the future in Houston. All this being said, the owner is already gushing about Clowney being a once in a blah, blah type of player and how he thinks that he is a better athlete than Mario Williams, whom he drafted in 2006. I think this time it is just an act.

2. Cleveland Browns(from St. Louis) - Teddy Bridgewater / QB / Louisville - A couple years ago the Rams traded back wirth the Redskins so Washington could take a QB and Fisher is on the move again for a 2 spot drop and another 1st via the Colts/Browns trade. The Browns watched Houston take Manziel and don't want to take the chance @ missing out on the 2nd of the two QB's they covet as well. Bridgewater to Gordon will be a dynamic combo in Cleveland.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Blake Bortles / QB / UCF - This is the "anti-Tebow" in state option. A Florida guy tabbed as the future QB to turn around a Florida team. This will help the Jags sell tickets and it helps that the guy is already better than their former "Franchise QB", Blaine Gabbert. Bortles has the talent to succeed, but the Jags will have to do a great job getting the pieces around him to be successful. Look for this draft to be heavy on the offensive side of the ball for the Jags.

4. St. Louis Rams(from Cleveland) - Khalil Mack / LB / Buffalo - The Rams pick up extra draft picks in the trade with Cleveland and still get who many believe is the top LB prospect in the draft. He will immediately step in as the SLB in St. Louis forming one of the best LB units in all of football with Laurinaitis and Alec Ogeltree. Fisher loves a punishing defense and this unit will rival the Seahawks/49ers.

5. Oakland Raiders - Sammy Watkins / WR / Clemson - The Raiders will select a QB in Round 2 almost certainly, but here they get argueably the best WR prospect in the draft. Watkins has blazing speed, great hands, and is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. Al Davis will be smiling somewhere when they make this pick.

6. Atlanta Falcons - Jadeveon Clowney / DE / South Carolina - Just too talented to fall any further. Last year the talk was Clowney being the #1 pick in the draft hands down. This year after seemeingly taking it easy on the field, and some carelessness off of it, he falls right into the lap of the Atlanta Falcons. They won't pass up the opportunity to get a guy like that for their defensive front.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Anthony Barr / LB / UCLA - What does Lovie Smith know? Defense. He knows that he can line up Barr as a DE on obvious passing situations and stand him up @ LB the rest of the time. He is a versitile defensive playmaker that can cover a lot of ground on every snap and will fit perfectly into Lovie's Tampa 2 scheme.

8. Minnesota Vikings - Justin Gilbert / CB / Oklahoma St. - They got Xavier Rhodes last year in Round 1 and get another CB this year. They are trying to revamp the defense in Minnesota and I expect them to do so here as there is not a viable option @ QB that would justify the #8 pick, see the past result of grabbing Ponder @ #12. They will not reach for a QB this year.

9. Buffalo Bills - Jake Matthews / OT / Texas A&M - Who would've thought the Buffalo Bills would have their pick of the top OT's in the draft? I have Matthews as the selection here because he played RT until Luke Joeckel made the jump to the NFL last year. He's versatile, comes from a great pedigree, and is NFL ready. Major upgrade for our OL here, major.

10. Detroit Lions - Marquise Lee / WR / USC - Calvin Johnson hasn't had a solid running mate opposite him since he's been in the NFL. The Lions will hope this pick changes that. He'll surely take some of the pressure off of Calvin and provide Stafford with yet another weapon in the passing game.

11. Tennessee Titans - Mike Evans / WR / Texas A&M - Ken Wisenhunt takes over in Tennesse and gets his QB a WR who can make plays. One of those guys you can just throw it up there and watch him come down with the ball. He's a little bigger version of Michael Floyd, whom Wisenhunt drafted in AZ. Put Evans on one side, with Kendall Wright on the other, and Walker hitting the seams in the middle of the field? Nice.

12. New York Giants - Greg Robinson / OT / Auburn - I think we see the end result when the OL does not give Eli time to throw the ball. That OL has to get taken care of. I know they have holes on defense, but you have to protect your Franchise QB.

13. St. Louis Rams - Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix / S / Alabama - The defensive theme continues for St. Louis. This draft could put them with the elite defenses of the NFL, being they are in their own division. But if they could get Mack and Clinton-Dix in the same draft, I really do believe this takes them to another level and they still have another 1st to go.

14. Chicago Bears - Eric Ebron / TE / UNC - What do you give a QB who just signed a HUGE contract, has Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffrey? Another mismatch for opposing defenses. Ebron is going to be a nightmare for LB's to try to keep up with and Safeties to try to out muscle.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Louis Nix III / DT / Notre Dame - The Steelers need someone to clog up the middle of the line so their LB's can make plays. Nix is that player. He had a knee injury this year that kept him out of some games, but all reports say that it should not be a problem going forward and he should easily be 100% by the time the pre-draft process gets under way.

16. Dallas Cowboys - Timmy Jernigan / DT / Florida St. - What the Cowboys need is to draft a new owner and FO, but that won't happen. They also need help on the defensive interior. Jernigan will provide that much.

17. Baltimore Ravens - CJ Mosley / LB / Alabama - Searching for replacements for Lewis and Ellerbe.......Still. They get the best ILB in the draft.

18. New York Jets - Darqueze Dennard / CB / Michigan St. - Milliner started to play better towards the end of the year, but Cromartie was terrible all the way through. They have to do something about that. Dennard is the top CB on some boards and the Jets snag him @ #18 to pair up with Milliner. Cromartie might not even be on the roster come July.

19. Miami Dolphins - Taylor Lewan / OT / Michigan - Its hard to believe that Tannehill made it through this season. Says a lot about the guy's toughness if you ask me. Their line is horrid at best. Throw in the Incognito/Martin fiasco and it is amazing that they were still in the playoff hunt until the last week of the season. Lewan will help to start fixing that train wreck.

20. Arizona Cardinals - Trent Murphy / OLB-DE / Stanford - Murphy will be a stand up edge rusher for a 10-6 team that missed out on the playoffs because they are in the toughest division in football. It is a position that needs an upgrade and Murphy will make them glad for the decision. He looks like a natural fit as a 3-4 OLB.

21. Green Bay Packers - Jace Amaro / TE / Texas Tech - Aaron Rodgers will benefit the most from this. Amaro, like Ebron, is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He will have to work on his blocking if he wants to be an every down TE, but from a receiving standpoint alone he is worth the pick.

22. Philadelphia Eagles - Stephon Tuitt / DE / Notre Dame - The offense is great, but the defense needs work if they really want to contend. Tuitt will be an immediate upgrade and starter on that defensive front. He reminds me a lot of young Richard Seymour and has the ability to slide to the inside to rush the passer in Nickel/Dime situations.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Austin Seferian-Jenkins / TE / Washington - Alex Smith really needs a quality TE and the Chiefs don't have one. This would help the offense become even more potent in 2014.

24. Cincinnati Bengals - Kelvin Benjamin / WR / Florida St. - Picture what Chicago has with Jeffrey and Marshall. Now that will be Cincy as well with green and Benjamin.

25. San Diego Chargers - Cyril Richardson / OT-OG / Baylor - San Diego looks to protect their rejuvenated Franchise QB and open lanes for their RB's. Rhinehart may be gone in FA and Richardson provides some versatility being able to play both OG and OT. Joe D. will have him ready to step in from day one.

26. St. Louis Rams(from Cleveland) - Kony Ealy / DE / Missouri - Defense, defense, and defense. Does anyone need to tell Jeff Fisher that defense wins Championships? Khalil Mack, Clinton-Dix, and now Kony Ealy in one round of one draft. Why Ealy? He'll sub for Quinn and Long to still get a decent amount of snaps every game. A nice player to have as a backup initially that could grow into more.

27. New Orleans Saints - Antonio Richardson / OT / Tennessee - Brees had to run for his life more this season than in any other I can remember. Richardson would be a solid pick here to help protect your QB.

28. Carolina Panthers - Allen Robinson / WR / Penn St. - Cam needs more weapons on offense and Robinson is a big target who can be just that. He put up excellent numbers while having a young QB slinging the ball to him. Now he'll have a better QB and Steve Smith drawing coverage on the other side along with Olsen over the middle. This could be a GREAT fit for him.

29. New England Patriots - Ra'Shede Hageman / DT-DE / Minnesota - He will line up all over the defensive line for the Pats*, but mainly his snaps will come @ DE in the 3-4.

30. San Francisco 49ers - Kyle Fuller / CB / Virginia Tech - This is probably the one position on defense that the 49ers truly need some help at, or at least some depth. Fuller had a solid year and showed well when facing the better competition.

31. Seattle Seahawks - Gabe Jackson / OG / Mississippi St. - He fits right in with their Power Run scheme on offense and will just be another road grader for Beast Mode to run behind.

32. Denver Broncos - Kareem Martin / DE-OLB / North Carolina - With the last pick in the 1st Round of the 2014 NFL Draft, yes I think the Broncos win the SB, they get a guy whose main focus will be to get to the QB. He has 21.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks this past season. The Broncos are hurting for a pass rush without Von Miller and Martin could help fill that void. At 6'6", 265lbs he already has the ideal NFL frame and is a tremendous athlete.

Nice post. Manziel #1 is distinct possibility especially with Texas angle --- I like the idea of Cleveland trading up to make sure they get their 2nd choice -- they could also trade with Houston if they fall in love with one of the QB's ---- ---- Mack/Barr are dead heat for 1st LB --- St Louis would take Clowney over Mack or trade down and trading partner would nab Clowney --- no way do I see Matthews at #9 -- if he's there the Bills lackey in NYC will pull groin sprinting up with the card ---- I see Bills picking between Ebron (TE) and Mosley (ILB) --- based on how I see draft -- but Bills would definitely take Clowney, Matthews or Barr if they fall to #9 ahead of both of them -----

Edited January 19, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[swede316]

Really depends on who the Bills think "their" guy is. If it's Ebron, I can see them trading back with say Dallas at 17, picking

up another 2nd similar to last year. My personal preference is Evans or Kelvin Benjamin...The big WR.

[Section242]

Nice post. Manziel #1 is distinct possibility especially with Texas angle --- I like the idea of Cleveland trading up to make sure they get their 2nd choice -- they could also trade with Houston if they fall in love with one of the QB's ---- ---- Mack/Barr are dead heat for 1st LB --- St Louis would take Clowney over Mack or trade down and trading partner would nab Clowney --- no way do I see Matthews at #9 -- if he's there the Bills lackey in NYC will pull groin sprinting up with the card ---- I see Bills picking between Ebron (TE) and Mosley (ILB) --- based on how I see draft -- but Bills would definitely take Clowney, Matthews or Barr if they fall to #9 ahead of both of them -----

 

Just speculating but why would STL take Clowney with Quinn, Long, Brockers? I think they'll take Matthews or go Watkins. Also I wouldn't rule out QB. If Clowney starts to slip past top 5 I think a trade similar to Atlanta moving up to get Julio Jones will happen. Cleveland a team with a ton of holes beat the Bills. Draft picks are over-valued. If the Bills had a front office that fans could trust i'd rather them get "their guy."

Edited January 19, 2014 by Section242

[gumby]

I would ok with Jake Matthews as the pick. I would be happier with Eric Ebron.

[section122]

 

 

Stats say SF line is below average, http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol . New England has a good line.

Off the top of my head so there may be more but:

Mankins and veldeer were both first round picks for ne

Brandon Albert was a high pick for kc

Fluker went 11 overall last year to sd

Bulaga was a first round pick by gb

 

So all of the top 5 lines have high picks on their lines.

 

I agree with taking the best player available for our strategy as for the first time in years the weaknesses on this team aren't glaring holes that require a player. Best player available should be able to help this team whether it is ot, lb, te, wr, etc... If it happens to be an ot I am okay with that.

[Ramius]

Taking fat guys in the top 10 is an epic waste of draft resources. How many wins have Joe Thomas and Jake Long gotten their teams? Grab OL in rounds 2-3 where the real value is.

[JM57]

Taking fat guys in the top 10 is an epic waste of draft resources. How many wins have Joe Thomas and Jake Long gotten their teams? Grab OL in rounds 2-3 where the real value is.

 

Interesting how you seem to purposely not mention that the most talented OL in the NFL is comprised of players selected #28,#17 and #11 overall...

[Bill from NYC]

Taking fat guys in the top 10 is an epic waste of draft resources. How many wins have Joe Thomas and Jake Long gotten their teams? Grab OL in rounds 2-3 where the real value is.

Way too much of a blanket statement for my blood. Obviously, every team is different.

 

I don't complain about the OL as much as I used to because although it needs help, it isn't as bad as it used to be.

Given the above, you saw what losing Levitre cost this team. We had nothing but inexperienced qbs, and a feature running back (I suppose) who is not able to find room to run ala Thurman. But he DOES have blazing speed if he gets through the line.

The Bills were lucky last year in terms of injuries up front. A new, talented OT on this team is a need, as is a quality left guard. Manuel looks to need all the help that he can get, and the Bills, due to the climate, will always need to run just a bit more than other teams.

 

However, if they are pretty sure that one of these tight ends will become a star, I would not object to them drafting him. The 9th pick seems early for a LB but again, if they think one of them will be great, I wouldn't object SO strongly. Either way, they do need to devote some major resources to the OL. I can't prove it, but I am of the VERY strong opinion that losing Levitre cost this team at least one win, perhaps more.

 

Jmo.

[KRT88]

It looks good BUT if I'm the Bills, I am trying to trade down big time. With so many under classmen in this draft there is a ton of value, get more picks. Similar to last year, bail and pick up another 2nd rounder if at all possible.

[JM57]

 

Way too much of a blanket statement for my blood. Obviously, every team is different.

 

I don't complain about the OL as much as I used to because although it needs help, it isn't as bad as it used to be.

Given the above, you saw what losing Levitre cost this team. We had nothing but inexperienced qbs, and a feature running back (I suppose) who is not able to find room to run ala Thurman. But he DOES have blazing speed if he gets through the line.

The Bills were lucky last year in terms of injuries up front. A new, talented OT on this team is a need, as is a quality left guard. Manuel looks to need all the help that he can get, and the Bills, due to the climate, will always need to run just a bit more than other teams.

 

However, if they are pretty sure that one of these tight ends will become a star, I would not object to them drafting him. The 9th pick seems early for a LB but again, if they think one of them will be great, I wouldn't object SO strongly. Either way, they do need to devote some major resources to the OL. I can't prove it, but I am of the VERY strong opinion that losing Levitre cost this team at least one win, perhaps more.

 

Jmo.

 

Wrt drafting a TE or LB at #9, I have to agree. It SEEMS too early to do either. But then you look at Luke Keuchly (#9) and Patrick Willis (#11), or Vernon Davis (#6) and you think "Well maybe if the Bills got a player like that it wouldn't be SO bad."

 

Especially when talking TE. Today's offenses are seeking that matchup nightmare guy. Ebron definitely could be that guy who is too big for DBs and too fast for LBs. That's a gamechanger that also negates the need for the huge jump ball WR.

 

To me, if a guy like Clowney, Watkins, Matthews, or Greg Robinson is on the board at #9, Buffalo should sprint to the podium. They may not be "top-tier need" positions, but those are top tier players. And reaching to draft for need is a big mistake, even more so when you're still filling a secondary need.

[Section242]

Off the top of my head so there may be more but:

Mankins and veldeer were both first round picks for ne

Brandon Albert was a high pick for kc

Fluker went 11 overall last year to sd

Bulaga was a first round pick by gb

 

So all of the top 5 lines have high picks on their lines.

 

I agree with taking the best player available for our strategy as for the first time in years the weaknesses on this team aren't glaring holes that require a player. Best player available should be able to help this team whether it is ot, lb, te, wr, etc... If it happens to be an ot I am okay with that.

 

Rivers, Brady, Rodgers. Denver lost one of the best offensive tackles in the league and didn't miss him. Bulaga was on IR and Sherrod just was getting back from injury for GB.

[JM57]

GB's OL is also pretty terrible.

[Ramius]

Way too much of a blanket statement for my blood. Obviously, every team is different.

 

I don't complain about the OL as much as I used to because although it needs help, it isn't as bad as it used to be.

Given the above, you saw what losing Levitre cost this team. We had nothing but inexperienced qbs, and a feature running back (I suppose) who is not able to find room to run ala Thurman. But he DOES have blazing speed if he gets through the line.

The Bills were lucky last year in terms of injuries up front. A new, talented OT on this team is a need, as is a quality left guard. Manuel looks to need all the help that he can get, and the Bills, due to the climate, will always need to run just a bit more than other teams.

 

However, if they are pretty sure that one of these tight ends will become a star, I would not object to them drafting him. The 9th pick seems early for a LB but again, if they think one of them will be great, I wouldn't object SO strongly. Either way, they do need to devote some major resources to the OL. I can't prove it, but I am of the VERY strong opinion that losing Levitre cost this team at least one win, perhaps more.

 

Jmo.

 

I'm of the same mind that we need to improve the OL, I just don't think that pick 9 is the spot to do it. you can get just as good OL talent between picks 25-75. Look where we've gotten out best OL recently. Wood was about pick 28 and Levitre and Glenn were second rounders. At 9 I wouldn't be opposed to a LB, or especially a TE.

 

As for Levitre, letting him go wasn't the problem. The issue was having no plan to replace him. There were 3-4 good FA OGs that we could have brought in and didn't. This year I think we can address at least one of the trouble OL spots in free agency, and then snag an OL in round 2 or 3.

[thewildrabbit]

nice post H2o. BTW, I wouldn't* be surprised to see 4 QB's taken in the top 10, as I'd add Derek Carr to that mix. Five teams in the top 10 all have a big need for a franchise QB.

 

 

I think if either Matthews or Robinson are there the Bills should pull the trigger for so many reasons. Mostly because building a dominate O line is the one thing they haven't tried the last 14 years.

 

I'd even be OK with the Bills then drafting an OG in both the second and third rounds to finally build a complete top line across the board.

 

Currently the Bills have 9 of 11 defensive players that were 1st & 2nd round draft picks, and where did it get them? 6-10 again! The Bills have drafted WR's & RB's with that first round pick many times it hasn't resulted in a playoff game. They even brought in a a known big time WR in TO to bolster the receiving corps, and that didn't work either.

Edited January 19, 2014 by FeartheLosing