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Analytics: 1st down on the 1 yard line


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Yup. They rushed for what, 200 yards today? But they decide to get cute on the goal line with a virgin QB.

 

Even a FG there puts them up by 10.

 

They didn't get "cute". They were stuffed on the 1st two runs with jumbo personnel. A pass isn't crazy there, but a sh!##y pre snap decision by a UDFA QB. A lower risk pass, maybe but KC is not a come from behind high flying offense. No problem going for a kill shot there, as a 14 point lead and you probably cruise to a win.

 

So it's ok for him to make a deep pass for a TD (the Goodwin one) but we shouldn't ask him to make a read like at the goal line?

 

The deep pass is actually the easiest throw to ask a young QB to make. It's a go-route, one read, quick drop throw with air under it. The goal line throw in the tight window with lots of defenders in the way is much more difficult.

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If youre gonna talk Analytics, show us the probabilities for each play. Just stating "analytics" doesn't automatically make your argument credible, sorry. I'm so sick of analytical being used by everyone when 99% of the population couldn't explain even the simplest statistical method.

 

Yea - I think many dread the use of that word on this boards the next few years

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Thank you

 

one week and it's Hackett is run run run predictable, He throws for it on first down and now he is pass happy. I thought was a great play call poorly executed.

 

Hackett called possibly his best game to date. The pass was higher risk as it was over the middle, but expecting that QB to make an intelligent read there and not get his go-fetcher stuck in his throat was maybe a bit much. A lower risk(lower reward) pass maybe, but no problem with a pass there.

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They didn't get "cute". They were stuffed on the 1st two runs with jumbo personnel. A pass isn't crazy there, but a sh!##y pre snap decision by a UDFA QB. A lower risk pass, maybe but KC is not a come from behind high flying offense. No problem going for a kill shot there, as a 14 point lead and you probably cruise to a win.

 

 

 

The deep pass is actually the easiest throw to ask a young QB to make. It's a go-route, one read, quick drop throw with air under it. The goal line throw in the tight window with lots of defenders in the way is much more difficult.

 

I wasn't talking about the actual pass... But the play. Saying "yea go for it here and go big but when it's goal line you shouldn't and we don't trust you"

 

Having a rookie QB throwing the ball in that situation against a defense that leads the league in INT's? Wrong call.

 

But throwing 4 deep balls is ok?

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Some of you have no idea HOW or WHEN to assign blame.

 

I've blasted Hackett a lot this year, but you can't blame him for this one.

 

His "terrible" play call got Stevie Johnson WIDE FREAKING OPEN in the end zone. If Tuel takes a split second to scan the defense, instead of blindly rifling it a spot, it's a touchdown. 17-3 lead.

 

It was a bad throw by a 4th string QB. End of story.

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Hackett called possibly his best game to date. The pass was higher risk as it was over the middle, but expecting that QB to make an intelligent read there and not get his go-fetcher stuck in his throat was maybe a bit much. A lower risk(lower reward) pass maybe, but no problem with a pass there.

 

His playcalling in each of the redzones has been costly pretty much every week.

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You're saying having a rookie QB throw in a TD situation is not ok, but letting him air it out 4 times is?

I'm saying that was a terrible call in that situation when you consider who you have at QB. Tuel went undrafted for good reason. He had 4 career wins as a starter and a penchant for throwing picks. With a capable QB under center that is a good call. When has Tuel proven to be capable? FJ and CJ were running the ball with authority today. Should have played it safe and ran FJ.
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I'm saying that was a terrible call in that situation when you consider who you have at QB. Tuel went undrafted for good reason. He had 4 career wins as a starter and a penchant for throwing picks. With a capable QB under center that is a good call. When has Tuel proven to be capable? FJ and CJ were running the ball with authority today. Should have played it safe and ran FJ.

 

You would think that the Bills coaching staff would have noticed that in practice that he is just going on his 1st read. That type of information from practice might make you curtail him from passing in that short of a field at that point in the game.

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On any short yardage situation, the best play (IMHO) is to spread the defense out and either sneak or run a misdirection run. Putting 22 guys in the box only makes it more difficult for the RB to find room. It's mind boggling that coaches don't see this.

 

 

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On any short yardage situation, the best play (IMHO) is to spread the defense out and either sneak or run a misdirection run. Putting 22 guys in the box only makes it more difficult for the RB to find room. It's mind boggling that coaches don't see this.

 

Like the play Sean Payton ran on us on 4th down last week? I was screaming for that play call in the redzone today.

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