Why I am not optimistic about this team

[thewildrabbit]

If you are expecting a quick fix then you are going to be disappointed. Six years under the Levy/Jauron/Brandon/Nix have put this franchise in a bind. Nothing was going to substatively change until the organization was reformed. Brandon didn't do a good job when he was involved with the football operation but in my view he has done an exceptional job in restructuring the football operation. He has basically modernized a very backwater organization.

 

The Bills will probably not match last year's record. On the surface that sounds disasterous. But it isn't necessarily so. What is going to matter is how professionally the football operation functions. How do the new draftees perform and develop? What good value mid-level players are added to the roster? Is the coaching staff a significant upgrade over the dullard bunch that preceded it?

 

The Bills would be continuing on their typical path to mediocrity if the old guard remained in place. The dinasaurs are gone and the organization is infused with more youth and vigor. If you are not willing to be patient then you are going to be frustrated. At least for this upcoming season focus on the developmental process more than the wins and losses. It will be the best approach to take to maintaining one's mental health.

I look at Brandon as a money man and not as a football man, so in my view his priority is in making as much profit for the owner rather then building a winning organization. Granted that should be the focal point for any successful business model. The problem I have is here we are under new GM Whaley / CEO Brandon having the very same difficulty's in signing players that past regimes have had, meaning Levitre and Byrd.

 

The Bills lost their most durable linemen in LG Andy Levitre who also graded out last season as their best O linemen. Now I can see why they didn't sign him and let him walk, but then they do the exact same crap they have been doing for the last 13 years when they let a top player leave... in not finding a decent replacement. Sorry but Doug Legursky graded as the worst linemen on a very average Steelers line, and because he is now a Buffalo Bill he isn't going to magically transform into another Levitre. Now they can't come to agreement with Safety Jairus Byrd and its the same old type story like Jason Peters here.

 

The OP is right with his concerns about how quickly things are changing in terms of building a top team. They draft a decent player, and then once he is developed and playing at a high level he naturally wants top dollar. So Instead of finding a way to sign him, they let him leave. They fill one hole at one position and two or more holes manifest themselves.

 

Doug Marrone / Nate Hackett might be the very best two people on earth to develop a rookie QB properly. But what good is it going to do them if the line can't protect the QB properly with oft injured players all over that line. No stability and no continuity. Plus the offense is again going to be limited in what they can do on the field with the deep drop back passing just like under Gailey / Jauron / Mularkey / Williams. The closest this franchise came to building and fielding a consistent winning team was with QB Drew Bledsoe at QB. They knew they needed to protect him better for the 5-7 step drop backs and instead of building him a top line they wanted him to suddenly change his style of play and get the ball out quicker.

 

No matter how good this new HC & GM are they can't over come losing top talent year after year, and then not replacing them adequately, or then taking two to three years to even find a decent replacement. So yea, Same S#%T, different year.

[CodeMonkey]

If Brady and Belichick leave...would you consider the Pats history as strongly?

A proven head coach and QB leaving is not the same as a rookie HC and QB joining a team.

So yes, I would consider the pats* history and determine that they would not be nearly as good after losing Marcia and the bellycheat.

Edited July 16, 2013 by CodeMonkey

[JohnC]

I look at Brandon as a money man and not as a football man, so in my view his priority is in making as much profit for the owner rather then building a winning organization. Granted that should be the focal point for any successful business model. The problem I have is here we are under new GM Whaley / CEO Brandon having the very same difficulty's in signing players that past regimes have had, meaning Levitre and Byrd.

 

The Bills lost their most durable linemen in LG Andy Levitre who also graded out last season as their best O linemen. Now I can see why they didn't sign him and let him walk, but then they do the exact same crap they have been doing for the last 13 years when they let a top player leave... in not finding a decent replacement. Sorry but Doug Legursky graded as the worst linemen on a very average Steelers line, and because he is now a Buffalo Bill he isn't going to magically transform into another Levitre. Now they can't come to agreement with Safety Jairus Byrd and its the same old type story like Jason Peters here.

 

The OP is right with his concerns about how quickly things are changing in terms of building a top team. They draft a decent player, and then once he is developed and playing at a high level he naturally wants top dollar. So Instead of finding a way to sign him, they let him leave. They fill one hole at one position and two or more holes manifest themselves.

 

Doug Marrone / Nate Hackett might be the very best two people on earth to develop a rookie QB properly. But what good is it going to do them if the line can't protect the QB properly with oft injured players all over that line. No stability and no continuity. Plus the offense is again going to be limited in what they can do on the field with the deep drop back passing just like under Gailey / Jauron / Mularkey / Williams. The closest this franchise came to building and fielding a consistent winning team was with QB Drew Bledsoe at QB. They knew they needed to protect him better for the 5-7 step drop backs and instead of building him a top line they wanted him to suddenly change his style of play and get the ball out quicker.

 

No matter how good this new HC & GM are they can't over come losing top talent year after year, and then not replacing them adequately, or then taking two to three years to even find a decent replacement. So yea, Same S#%T, different year.

 

Name a franchise, good or bad, that doesn't lose players to free agency due to cap and contract issues? Let me rudely answer my own question: There is none. Player movement is part of the landscape of managing a franchise. The Ravens won the last SB. They have already gone through numerous personnel changes this offseason.

 

I wasns't surprised at the Levitre departure. I understand why he was allowed to walk. Byrd is a player I would like to keep. That scenario hasn't fully played out yet. Buffalo is not going to be a franchise that typically chases the stud free agent. The Mario Williams gilded contract acquisition is an exception to the rule. How the Bills perform on the mid-range and value free agent market is more important for this franchise. There is still more to be done prior to the season.

 

Make no mistake about where this franchise is: It is rebuilding. If you can't handle the trials and tribulations of a team going through that torturous process then you are going to be very frustrated.

[CodeMonkey]

Name a franchise, good or bad, that doesn't lose players to free agency due to cap and contract issues? Let me rudely answer my own question: There is none. Player movement is part of the landscape of managing a franchise. The Ravens won the last SB. They have already gone through numerous personnel changes this offseason.

 

I wasns't surprised at the Levitre departure. I understand why he was allowed to walk. Byrd is a player I would like to keep. That scenario hasn't fully played out yet. Buffalo is not going to be a franchise that typically chases the stud free agent. The Mario Williams gilded contract acquisition is an exception to the rule. How the Bills perform on the mid-range and value free agent market is more important for this franchise. There is still more to be done prior to the season.

 

Make no mistake about where this franchise is: It is rebuilding. If you can't handle the trials and tribulations of a team going through that torturous process then you are going to be very frustrated.

I agree with what you are saying. The only problem is that this is year 14 of the rebuilding process, and it is starting from basically ground zero again.

That in and of itself leads to a great deal of frustration for a lot of people.

Edited July 16, 2013 by CodeMonkey

[chris heff]

Since this has turned into a the Bills are cheap we are doomed thread, here is my two cents. Bill Polian recently said somewhere to somebody, thatt two positions where you don't want to over pay are guard and safety. It just so happens that the Bills two big FA this year were a guard and safety. The Bills used the franchise tag on the right player. Tennessee over paid for Levitre, a good player, but he plays a position where one of the most respected people in football says don't over pay.

 

As far as Bryd is concerned, none of us have any idea what the sticking point was. Probably money, but it could be that a Bryd just wants out. If he just wants out there is not much the Bills can do other than what they have done. If it is money, should they over pay at the saftey position at the expense of not being able to pay at another position deemed more important?

Edited July 16, 2013 by chris heff

[JohnC]

I agree with what you are saying. The only problem is that this is year 13 of the rebuilding process, and it is starting from basically ground zero again.

That in and of itself leads to a great deal of frustration for a lot of people.

 

I share your frustration with this long term troubled franchise. The weird owner hired incompetents to run his football operation. The past six years starting with Levy/Jauron and ending with the befuddled Nix brought us back to the point of starting over again. Tell me how smart it is for an owner with a billion $$$ asset to hire incompetents to make hundreds of million $$$ decisions on hhis behalf? How smart is it to repeatedly change staffs in the standard three year cycle of futility? If you have an approach that fails and you continue to resort to that same approach then how dumb is that?

 

Ralph Wilson is not involved in the operation. The old guard football people are gone. The only way to get back on track is to have a front office and coaching staff who have a shared vision and philosophy. The ugly past is over with; it's time to move on.

 

The situation is not hopeless. The GM for the Seahawks,John Schneider, and the HC/real GM for the Redskins, Mike Shanahan, started at the same time as Buddy Nix started as the GM for the Bills. Look at what those teams acccomplished? Compare it to Nix's record? The point I'm making is that if you run the football operation smartly you can turn things around in a few years. The essential ingredient that both of those teams have was securing the franchise qb.

 

I believe that with Brandon as the President and Whaley as the GM with a new coaching staff this franchise has a chance to succeed. If Manuel turns out to be a legitimate franchise qb then the foundation for success is built. If not, then back to the drawing board. I'm not saying anything that is original but what I am saying is fundamental for all successful franchises. There is no quick fix. It is going to take time.

[thewildrabbit]

I share your frustration with this long term troubled franchise. The weird owner hired incompetents to run his football operation. The past six years starting with Levy/Jauron and ending with the befuddled Nix brought us back to the point of starting over again. Tell me how smart it is for an owner with a billion $$$ asset to hire incompetents to make hundreds of million $$$ decisions on hhis behalf? How smart is it to repeatedly change staffs in the standard three year cycle of futility? If you have an approach that fails and you continue to resort to that same approach then how dumb is that?

 

Ralph Wilson is not involved in the operation. The old guard football people are gone. The only way to get back on track is to have a front office and coaching staff who have a shared vision and philosophy. The ugly past is over with; it's time to move on.

 

The situation is not hopeless. The GM for the Seahawks,John Schneider, and the HC/real GM for the Redskins, Mike Shanahan, started at the same time as Buddy Nix started as the GM for the Bills. Look at what those teams acccomplished? Compare it to Nix's record? The point I'm making is that if you run the football operation smartly you can turn things around in a few years. The essential ingredient that both of those teams have was securing the franchise qb.

 

I believe that with Brandon as the President and Whaley as the GM with a new coaching staff this franchise has a chance to succeed. If Manuel turns out to be a legitimate franchise qb then the foundation for success is built. If not, then back to the drawing board. I'm not saying anything that is original but what I am saying is fundamental for all successful franchises. There is no quick fix. It is going to take time.

John, first off this owner is a hellava lot smarter then anyone gives him credit for, even at his age.JMO. it is also crystal clear to me that this owner has an agenda to make as much profit each year that he possibly can rather then building a consistent winning team. Games are continuously sold out at the Ralph, save for a few later in the season each year. The team generates a huge profit every year.

 

In 2011, "According to a Forbes Magazine analysis, the Bills are among the league's 10 most profitable teams. The data is part of the magazine's annual valuations of all NFL Franchises. Forbes ranks the Bills ninth, with an annual operating income of $40.9 million (that's after they pay the players)": "The team, according to Forbes, is worth $792 million, which is 29th in the league. "

 

http://www.wgrz.com/...rofitable-Teams

 

This owner has more then enough money to hire a Bill Cowher or Lovie Smith and chooses to keep his overhead as low as he can for the obvious reasons stated in the article.

 

 

The problem as I see it is that way to many Bills fans are content with a losing team as long as they get to tailgate. So Bills fans keep buying season tickets in the hopes that a miracle will occur and the team will suddenly get lucky enough to find a top QB, HC, GM, and the team will start winning again. Sorry friend but that isn't how the NFL works as you need talent in the front office, the sidelines (coaches) and on the field. Then when the Bills do find an exceptional talent like Jairus Byrd, Jason Peters,and some good but not exceptional talent in Andy Levitre, Poz, Winfield et al, they let them walk away, and don't immediately replace them with equal talent.

 

I'm not certain of the exact number, but I think the Bills currently have something like around 22 mill cap room left, which is more then enough to pay Byrd with an incentive laden contract. So if he plays like the best safety in the NFL he will be compensated for it. If he sucks, he won't. It was also enough to pay Levitre OR find a real decent FA replacement at LG. Like I said, same stuff, different year.

 

 

As for my opening sentence, lets go back to 1977 and look at what was happening. The Bills were so bad at 3-11the old timers need to remember what it was like in Buffalo Back in the late 70's. An industrial wasteland, steel plants closing, High jobless rate, businesses closing. The Blizzard of 77. Too much snow, poisonous air and water. A bad bad football team with the stadium half filled during games. How bad you ask? So bad in fact that in a stadium that held 80 thousand plus fans, that they had only sold 18,000 season tickets, and the Bills could not even get a home preseason game because people would not come out to see it. (back then Rich Stadium had 80,000+ seats)

 

Back then this owner was getting desperate because he knew if he didn't start winning he could possibly need to sell and lose his franchise. What did he do? He hired a known winning NFL head coach in Chuck Knox, and the team was winning and in the playoffs in 3 short years.

Now will that happen with a first time NFL rookie HC, a rookie GM, a rookie QB (that was graded as a 4th round pick prior to the senior bowl)? I just don't see this franchise turning the corner anytime soon. Although, do I want them to, heck yea!

 

EDIT: to add link

Edited July 16, 2013 by FeartheLosing

[PromoTheRobot]

The problem as I see it is that way to many Bills fans are content with a losing team as long as they get to tailgate.

 

No. We buy tickets because we like being part of the exclusive 32-member club called the NFL. Places like Buffalo only get to keep their teams because we show up. Stop showing up and when the Bills leave town people will say we are bad fans and had it coming.

 

It's because of fans like me you still have a Bills team to B word about.

 

PTR

[Best Player Available]

No. We buy tickets because we like being part of the exclusive 32-member club called the NFL. Places like Buffalo only get to keep their teams because we show up. Stop showing up and when the Bills leave town people will say we are bad fans and had it coming.

 

It's because of fans like me you still have a Bills team to B word about.

 

PTR

Prove it, and upgrade out of the rockpile to the Jim Kelly club. That's where the true blue fans sit.

[PromoTheRobot]

Prove it, and upgrade out of the rockpile to the Jim Kelly club. That's where the true blue fans sit.

 

True blue fans sit in the rain and cold, not in some climate-controlled business write-off....although those well-heeled fans are probably just as important to keeping the Bills here.

 

PTR

Edited July 16, 2013 by PromoTheRobot

[Best Player Available]

True blue fans sit in the rain and cold, not in some climate-controlled business write-off....although those well-heeled fans are probably just as important to keeping the Bills here.

 

PTR

Our seats are certaibly not climate controlled unless you head inside to the bar. Also, Business write off fans? Not a one, although as many know they are bit more well behaved, the rest rooms are awesome meaning no lines, the food is better.

 

And although there most likely are some corporate scmucks they prefer other club sections, and boxes. There are the frequent former Bills players who probably are in on Ralph's dime.

[thewildrabbit]

No. We buy tickets because we like being part of the exclusive 32-member club called the NFL. Places like Buffalo only get to keep their teams because we show up. Stop showing up and when the Bills leave town people will say we are bad fans and had it coming.

 

It's because of fans like me you still have a Bills team to B word about.

 

PTR

I get it that you love the Buffalo Bills and want to take a part in every game as I used to be that same guy with season tickets. I took my entire family to games every Sunday when the Bills were winning in the late 80's, early 90's. Kinda why now both my son and daughter buy their own season tickets every year. I always sat close to the field to hear the sounds of the NFL, and loved to endure the wind, rain and snow. My son has often invited me to games to sit with him in his club seats, and I decline.

 

I stayed away from the team in the late 70's when they were losing, bought tickets when they hired Chuck Knox. I gave up going to games when they let Knox walk, and did so again in the 90's when Jim Kelly retired. I'm still a Bills fan even when they lose, although I suppose I'm a strange old bird that refuses to financially endorse a team that in my view isn't dedicated to winning a championship.

 

Look what happened in the late 70's when the franchise was almost in its death throes. The owner went out and hired a top HC, and the team was in the playoffs in 3 short years. NFN, but the way I look at it...its because of fans like you that Ralph Wilson didn't hire Bill Cowher instead of Chan Gailey and I'd be a season ticket holder again.

Edited July 16, 2013 by FeartheLosing

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Prove it, and upgrade out of the rockpile to the Jim Kelly club. That's where the true blue fans sit.

 

He's a season ticket holder.

 

That's not good enough?

 

He drives over 400 miles to attend games.

 

One-way.

[Sisyphean Bills]

How different is the front office really? Russ Brandon has been around throughout the draught as has Jim Overdorf. Remember him? The guy in charge of negotiating contracts? Doug Whaley was Buddy Nix' right hand man and got promoted into Buddy's chair.

 

There have been changes. Ralph is no longer running things by phone. Buddy is now consulting from afar now. Whaley revamped the scouting department a bit (which won't bear fruit instantly). And, then there is the Bills routine change of underwear, er, I mean coaching staffs. Nothing new exactly, but this time the Bills are going with a younger, energetic coach with something to prove rather than the retread old coach at his last stop before getting bounced.

 

So, yes, some things have changed on the management side of the equation, but this has not been a complete house cleaning. There are still very familiar faces in the organization, especially on the money side. The situation does make for good debate.

[eball]

How different is the front office really? Russ Brandon has been around throughout the draught as has Jim Overdorf. Remember him? The guy in charge of negotiating contracts? Doug Whaley was Buddy Nix' right hand man and got promoted into Buddy's chair.

 

There have been changes. Ralph is no longer running things by phone. Buddy is now consulting from afar now. Whaley revamped the scouting department a bit (which won't bear fruit instantly). And, then there is the Bills routine change of underwear, er, I mean coaching staffs. Nothing new exactly, but this time the Bills are going with a younger, energetic coach with something to prove rather than the retread old coach at his last stop before getting bounced.

 

So, yes, some things have changed on the management side of the equation, but this has not been a complete house cleaning. There are still very familiar faces in the organization, especially on the money side. The situation does make for good debate.

 

I'll have a Guinness.

 

Anyway, you're making an assumption that Whaley has the same role with respect to contracts that Buddy did. We don't know anything about that.

 

The biggest and most important change in the front office is that Ralph is out of the picture.

[JohnC]

How different is the front office really? Russ Brandon has been around throughout the draught as has Jim Overdorf. Remember him? The guy in charge of negotiating contracts? Doug Whaley was Buddy Nix' right hand man and got promoted into Buddy's chair.

 

There have been changes. Ralph is no longer running things by phone. Buddy is now consulting from afar now. Whaley revamped the scouting department a bit (which won't bear fruit instantly). And, then there is the Bills routine change of underwear, er, I mean coaching staffs. Nothing new exactly, but this time the Bills are going with a younger, energetic coach with something to prove rather than the retread old coach at his last stop before getting bounced.

 

So, yes, some things have changed on the management side of the equation, but this has not been a complete house cleaning. There are still very familiar faces in the organization, especially on the money side. The situation does make for good debate.

 

You are correct that some of the same cast of characters on the money side of the operation are still involved with the organization. But there is a different set of rules that they have to work under compared to prior the recent CBA. Teams are now required to spend up to 90% of the cap. No longer can Littman and Ralph (now out of the picture) squeeze this franchise into obvlivion.

 

Some of the owners from the richer organizatiions, Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder, resented the fact that while they put in the money to invest in their product some owners such as Ralph took advantage of their subsidy by squeezing their franchise to enrich themselves and remain uncompetitive. What enraged some of these big market owners even more is the constant complaints from owners such as Ralph who whined how unfair the revenue system was while they continued to manipulate the system for their own advantage.

[Billshank Redemption]

I think this is going to be a weird transition year but hopefully manuel finally shows the stuff and keeps us in games we weren't in before. The only rough lost was levitre and I guess potentially Byrd. I really liked our draft class though this year and think the additions more than make up for the subtractions. Just gonna have to wait and see.

[PromoTheRobot]

How different is the front office really? Russ Brandon has been around throughout the draught as has Jim Overdorf. Remember him? The guy in charge of negotiating contracts? Doug Whaley was Buddy Nix' right hand man and got promoted into Buddy's chair.

 

There have been changes. Ralph is no longer running things by phone. Buddy is now consulting from afar now. Whaley revamped the scouting department a bit (which won't bear fruit instantly). And, then there is the Bills routine change of underwear, er, I mean coaching staffs. Nothing new exactly, but this time the Bills are going with a younger, energetic coach with something to prove rather than the retread old coach at his last stop before getting bounced.

 

So, yes, some things have changed on the management side of the equation, but this has not been a complete house cleaning. There are still very familiar faces in the organization, especially on the money side. The situation does make for good debate.

Yawn. I bet most of the secretarial and janitorial staff is the same too. This fixation on Overdorf is hilarious, like he's really Emporer Palpatine disguised as a mid-level Senator.

 

BTW the NFL has a draft. Beer is available on draught.

 

PTR

Edited July 17, 2013 by PromoTheRobot

[Sisyphean Bills]

Yawn. I bet most of the secretarial and janitorial staff is the same too. This fixation on Overdorf is hilarious, like he's really Emporer Palpatine disguised as a mid-level Senator.

 

BTW the NFL has a draft. Beer is available on draught.

 

PTR

 

Didn't mean to derail the conversation with a single letter spelling error. Must be another slow news day.

[dave mcbride]

It's interesting me to me that many of the posters here (not all, true) haven't engaged substantively with Badolbilz's argument about building for now vs. building incrementally for the long term. That's the real issue, and the critics of the OP gotta bring something better to the table other than Badolbilz is a negative Nancy. That's flat out weak.