[closed]With all the QB's being equally bad in this draft...

[Dibs]

Some very good discussion in this thread. I agree with several that Geno is a legitimate first-round prospect, and I'd be very comfortable drafting him at #8. If he's not there at #8, I'd prefer the Bills go in a different direction (possibly trading down), and take a flier on a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. To me, it's a pretty underwhelming QB class, but the odds are pretty good that at least one of the Wilson/Bray/Nassib/Manuel/etc. group becomes at least a decent starter. I have zero clue about which one(s), though. EDIT: Except that I think Glennon will be an absolute bust. Any time the argument for a QB prospect comes down to something like, "don't look at his numbers, just look at his arm" I'm extremely skeptical.

Most people think that way.....but if none of those QBs are considered by the scouts to be worthy of a 1st round pick then the odds are actually extremely tiny.

 

I'll pimp my study again.....have a look at the success rates of non 1st round QBs in the link.....you'll see what I mean. Page 2 of the thread has a better top pick 5-34 breakdown than the original post.

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155235-drafting-success-qb/?do=findComment&comment=2712778

[Garranimal]

Huh? Locker and Ponder are open to debate still, but I think it is pretty clear that Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez were not worth the early picks spent on them. I don't see how these mistakes suggest that it is a good idea to draft Geno Smith early. Just because some folks pay over market value for some assets, does not mean that it is a good investment.

i would be ok with an overrated QB that could take our typically crappy Bills to a first round playoff win.

[NoSaint]

All of the quarterbacks are not equally bad.

 

Geno Smith would be a Top 10 pick in most years.

 

> Last year he would have gone after RGIII, but likely before Tannehill

> In 2011, he would have probably gone after Cam Newton, but before Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder

> In 2010, he would have gone after Sam Bradford, but before Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen

> In 2009, he would have gone after Stafford and probably would have pushed Sanchez for the next QB off the board.

> In 2008, he probably would be taken after Matt Ryan, but before Joe Flacco.

 

Unless we completely bottom out (less than 3 wins) or trade up one of these years, drafting a quarterback rated as high as Geno Smith is the best we can EVER hope for.

 

I have been beating this drum relentlessly. unless you think we get the #1 pick, the type of qb that people are expecting is not an option. often he doesnt even exist at #1.

 

At 8, who were the better prospects in the last 10-15 years? Jay Cutler and Big Ben?

[KOKBILLS]

We will go some other position at #8 or trade down, then trade back up for Nassib. With all things being equal the kid has upside and knows the offense we will be installing.

 

Better to go with the devil you know than the one you don't.

 

Like I said in another thread...This is the exact same-type-Draft-theory that landed the Bills Aaron Williams and TJ Graham...So I do agree it's probably exactly what Buddy will do...

 

I'll remind all of you who think this is a good path that this is the Buffalo Bills Scouting Dept we are talking about ..This is Buddy Nix making the final call...And it's likely that The Bills pick...That "devil that you know..." Will not be as good as that QB, or player at another position, the Bills pass on...

 

Just saying...

[RyanC883]

I'm thinking we stay at 8, and either draft Smith/Barkley or E. Fisher, Dion Jordan, or Olgetree. We need someone that will most likely start on day 1 with a top 10 pick. If there is no QB the Bills feel fit that, take on in RD2. Or pile up picks for next years draft.

[Cash]

Most people think that way.....but if none of those QBs are considered by the scouts to be worthy of a 1st round pick then the odds are actually extremely tiny.

 

I'll pimp my study again.....have a look at the success rates of non 1st round QBs in the link.....you'll see what I mean. Page 2 of the thread has a better top pick 5-34 breakdown than the original post.

http://forums.twobil...b/#entry2712778

 

Oh, I'm familiar with your study, and love it. But you and I have different definitions/criteria for something like "decent starter". My minimum standards don't meet any of your study's 3 criteria. And I make no promises that any of these QBs will succeed with their first team, which also fails your study's criteria. I did a similar study a few years ago with more inclusive criteria for "starter", and the results were roughly 50% of 1st rounders, 25% of 2nd rounders, 10% of 3rd rounders, and 0-5% for the other rounds, with the 6th round being an outlier. Although I'll admit that even at the time, I thought my criteria for being a starter were too inclusive, which is part of the reason I never updated it.

[Kellyto83TD]

Like I said in another thread...This is the exact same-type-Draft-theory that landed the Bills Aaron Williams and TJ Graham...So I do agree it's probably exactly what Buddy will do...

 

I'll remind all of you who think this is a good path that this is the Buffalo Bills Scouting Dept we are talking about ..This is Buddy Nix making the final call...And it's likely that The Bills pick...That "devil that you know..." Will not be as good as that QB, or player at another position, the Bills pass on...

 

Just saying...

 

Oh I get where you are coming from. The devil you know reference is to Nassib and our new HC and OC. It would possibly make the easiest transition I would presume.

 

That said it is possible this class has some quality starters, but who knows. What bothers me is all have clear cut issues which is uncommon for the class across the board.

 

Fans get names stuck in their heads Geno Smith is #1. All over the board its a Smith love fest and they ignore clear problems this kid has. Now some staffs like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Fran, NE etc can play to a kids strengths and work on his weaknesses, but to take a page from your post tone, I don't trust the Buffalo staff to be able to do that.

 

Either way I don't trust Buddy Nix. I don't feel the man can evaluate QB talent at all and out of blind stupidity..errrr... loyalty Brandon kept him when I feel he should have let him go as soon as the other staff was let go. Our only hope is that Whaley is really going to run this draft and he can evaluate talent. I pray all this time he has had little to no say and his time around the Pittsburgh evaluators has paid off.

 

Personally I think we are sitting here talking the same stuff with the same draft area 3 years from now and the organization has shown me no reason to think otherwise.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Oh I get where you are coming from. The devil you know reference is to Nassib and our new HC and OC. It would possibly make the easiest transition I would presume.

 

That said it is possible this class has some quality starters, but who knows. What bothers me is all have clear cut issues which is uncommon for the class across the board.

 

Fans get names stuck in their heads Geno Smith is #1. All over the board its a Smith love fest and they ignore clear problems this kid has. Now some staffs like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Fran, NE etc can play to a kids strengths and work on his weaknesses, but to take a page from your post tone, I don't trust the Buffalo staff to be able to do that.

 

Either way I don't trust Buddy Nix. I don't feel the man can evaluate QB talent at all and out of blind stupidity..errrr... loyalty Brandon kept him when I feel he should have let him go as soon as the other staff was let go. Our only hope is that Whaley is really going to run this draft and he can evaluate talent. I pray all this time he has had little to no say and his time around the Pittsburgh evaluators has paid off.

 

Personally I think we are sitting here talking the same stuff with the same draft area 3 years from now and the organization has shown me no reason to think otherwise.

 

so how do you propose getting a qb without possible weaknesses?

[Kellyto83TD]

so how do you propose getting a qb without possible weaknesses?

 

Saint, ALL have some weaknesses but this draft class across the board seems to have really glaring weaknesses. The #1 that all of them seem to have is inconsistancy. I have seen all I want out of that with Fitz. All of them seem to dissapear at times and it seems to be the worst time that they do it.

 

I watched the first Sunday of the combine and watched Mayock just go nuts on each one talking about how they would dissapear in games, start screwing the pooch at the worst time etc. This is the NFL, ALL THE TIME is big time, you can't dissapear or be inconsistant to the point these guys are and succeed.

 

But we have to pull the trigger in this draft and give someone a shot, Fitz is not the answer and neither is TJack. I am just not sure with the OL, LB and even DB talent, I just would have a hard time as a GM passing on that quality talent at #8 for a maybe at QB. I would move back into the late first to grab a QB.

 

But then again... That is odds are why I am not an NFL GM Right? :-)

[The Wiz]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LugIVfL6FbU

I know that 1 out of 3 players drafted right after our pick will be better than our pick.

Edited March 8, 2013 by The Wiz

[Kellyto83TD]

+1 on the retort Wiz!

[Maury Ballstein]

:thumbdown:

 

another soothsayer on the qb's ? all will be equally bad?

 

link?

[OldTimer1960]

i would be ok with an overrated QB that could take our typically crappy Bills to a first round playoff win.

 

For the 8th overall pick? I am not saying that Christian Ponder will never improve, but the Vikings wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs had Adrian Peterson not had one of the greatest seasons ever for a RB.

[Dibs]

Oh, I'm familiar with your study, and love it. But you and I have different definitions/criteria for something like "decent starter". My minimum standards don't meet any of your study's 3 criteria. And I make no promises that any of these QBs will succeed with their first team, which also fails your study's criteria. I did a similar study a few years ago with more inclusive criteria for "starter", and the results were roughly 50% of 1st rounders, 25% of 2nd rounders, 10% of 3rd rounders, and 0-5% for the other rounds, with the 6th round being an outlier. Although I'll admit that even at the time, I thought my criteria for being a starter were too inclusive, which is part of the reason I never updated it.

 

I understand what you are saying....and you are right that my studies are relatively exclusive in their criteria. This is due to the focused question I used for the reason of the studies. In regards to the QB position though, I tend to think that it is pretty spot on in relation to producing solid starting QBs......particularly how it relates to the position the Bills find themselves in at the moment.

 

It is extremely rare for a QB to be retained by their drafting team and become minimally a solid starter for the team that drafts them if the QB has not shown themselves to be of that level within their first 4-5 years. Conversely, it is extremely rare for a QB that has become a solid starter for the drafting team to be let go by that team after the first 4-5 years.

 

Though there is a small number of QBs who then bounce around the league.....eventually maturing to have a few good seasons of QB play, that is of no use to the drafting team(in our case the Bills).

 

For a quick double check.....here are a list of 2nd(non-top 32 picks), 3rd & 4th round QBs over a 10 year span(2001-2010).

I will bold any QB who even remotely resembles a multi year starter.

 

2nd Round: (0 of 11)

Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White, Jimmy Clausen

 

3rd Round: (1 of 12)

Josh McCown, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Matt Schaub, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Trent Edwards, Kevin O'Connell, Colt McCoy

 

4th Round: (2 of 12)

Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Kyle Orton, Stefan Lefors, Isaiah Stanback, Stephen McGee, Mike Kafka

 

 

Overall from 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....3 of 35 (8.6%)(1 in 11.7)

 

Kyle Orton......played just well enough to have 2 teams try(& succeed) to replace him in his first 5 years.......a team(Bills) desperate for a QB wouldn't want him(may as well keep Fitz).

 

David Garrard.....didn't become a factor for the Jags till 4 years after drafting.....started 76 games for them.....IMO, no good for the Bills needs....but include him if you like.

 

Matt Schaub.....unusual circumstances.....only 2 start for drafting team Falcons.....include him as well.

 

 

Overall numbers for 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....2 of 35 (5.7%)(1 in 17.5)

 

 

 

If the Bills think that they have a reasonble chance to "find a QB" in the 2nd round then their new analytics department is not doing a very good job.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Dibs

[Section242]

I understand what you are saying....and you are right that my studies are relatively exclusive in their criteria. This is due to the focused question I used for the reason of the studies. In regards to the QB position though, I tend to think that it is pretty spot on in relation to producing solid starting QBs......particularly how it relates to the position the Bills find themselves in at the moment.

 

It is extremely rare for a QB to be retained by their drafting team and become minimally a solid starter for the team that drafts them if the QB has not shown themselves to be of that level within their first 4-5 years. Conversely, it is extremely rare for a QB that has become a solid starter for the drafting team to be let go by that team after the first 4-5 years.

 

Though there is a small number of QBs who then bounce around the league.....eventually maturing to have a few good seasons of QB play, that is of no use to the drafting team(in our case the Bills).

 

For a quick double check.....here are a list of 2nd(non-top 32 picks), 3rd & 4th round QBs over a 10 year span(2001-2010).

I will bold any QB who even remotely resembles a multi year starter.

 

2nd Round: (0 of 11)

Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White, Jimmy Clausen

 

3rd Round: (1 of 12)

Josh McCown, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Matt Schaub, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Trent Edwards, Kevin O'Connell, Colt McCoy

 

4th Round: (2 of 12)

Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Kyle Orton, Stefan Lefors, Isaiah Stanback, Stephen McGee, Mike Kafka

 

 

Overall from 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....3 of 35 (8.6%)(1 in 11.7)

 

Kyle Orton......played just well enough to have 2 teams try(& succeed) to replace him in his first 5 years.......a team(Bills) desperate for a QB wouldn't want him(may as well keep Fitz).

 

David Garrard.....didn't become a factor for the Jags till 4 years after drafting.....started 76 games for them.....IMO, no good for the Bills needs....but include him if you like.

 

Matt Schaub.....unusual circumstances.....only 2 start for drafting team Falcons.....include him as well.

 

 

Overall numbers for 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....2 of 35 (5.7%)(1 in 17.5)

 

 

 

If the Bills think that they have a reasonble chance to "find a QB" in the 2nd round then their new analytics department is not doing a very good job.

 

I agree with you. Though guys aren't going to get the same opportunity as guys taken in the 1st. I don't think their is a team that has invested less in terms of drafting a QB over the last 5 years than the Bills. Take a guy at 41 and the Bills are awful again and they've got an opportunity to take Manziel or Bridgewater then they've gotta take em. With new CBA it's the franchise crushing blow if you miss on a QB as it would've been 5 years ago. Not taking a guy above the 7th rd since Edwards shows how inept Nix has been.

 

More film on guys leads to more scrutiny and their stock falling. Locker was a likely number 1 overall pick had he left early, Barkley's stock has fallen, Leinart was a likely top pick had he left early. Leinart obviously is a bust and Locker hasn't shown much. A down year for Manziel I think his height will be scrutinized, if Louisville has a bad year then Bridgewater gets squeezed.

[OldTimer1960]

I understand what you are saying....and you are right that my studies are relatively exclusive in their criteria. This is due to the focused question I used for the reason of the studies. In regards to the QB position though, I tend to think that it is pretty spot on in relation to producing solid starting QBs......particularly how it relates to the position the Bills find themselves in at the moment.

 

It is extremely rare for a QB to be retained by their drafting team and become minimally a solid starter for the team that drafts them if the QB has not shown themselves to be of that level within their first 4-5 years. Conversely, it is extremely rare for a QB that has become a solid starter for the drafting team to be let go by that team after the first 4-5 years.

 

Though there is a small number of QBs who then bounce around the league.....eventually maturing to have a few good seasons of QB play, that is of no use to the drafting team(in our case the Bills).

 

For a quick double check.....here are a list of 2nd(non-top 32 picks), 3rd & 4th round QBs over a 10 year span(2001-2010).

I will bold any QB who even remotely resembles a multi year starter.

 

2nd Round: (0 of 11)

Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White, Jimmy Clausen

 

3rd Round: (1 of 12)

Josh McCown, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Matt Schaub, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Trent Edwards, Kevin O'Connell, Colt McCoy

 

4th Round: (2 of 12)

Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Kyle Orton, Stefan Lefors, Isaiah Stanback, Stephen McGee, Mike Kafka

 

 

Overall from 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....3 of 35 (8.6%)(1 in 11.7)

 

Kyle Orton......played just well enough to have 2 teams try(& succeed) to replace him in his first 5 years.......a team(Bills) desperate for a QB wouldn't want him(may as well keep Fitz).

 

David Garrard.....didn't become a factor for the Jags till 4 years after drafting.....started 76 games for them.....IMO, no good for the Bills needs....but include him if you like.

 

Matt Schaub.....unusual circumstances.....only 2 start for drafting team Falcons.....include him as well.

 

 

Overall numbers for 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....2 of 35 (5.7%)(1 in 17.5)

 

 

 

If the Bills think that they have a reasonble chance to "find a QB" in the 2nd round then their new analytics department is not doing a very good job.

 

Dibbs, I love your analysis and effort. I think that your investigation was quite thorough. I am just not sure that the conclusion is fully solid.

 

While I agree that most good starting QBs will be drafted in round 1 (and fairly early), (I am sure that you know) that is not the same as saying that over-drafting a QB in round 1 gives that player a good shot at becoming a good starting QB in the NFL.

 

I will acknowledge that things are changing recently in the NFL and more young QBs are showing signs of success, but draft history is full of failed QBs that were over-drafted by QB-starved teams including:

 

David Klingler (6)

Tommy Maddox (25)

Rick Mirer (2)

Heath Shuler (3)

Trent Dilfer (6)

Kerry Collins (5)

Ryan Leaf (2)

Tim Couch (1)

Akili Smith (3)

Daunte Culpepper (11)

Cade McNown (12)

Chad Pennington (18)

David Carr (1)

Joey Harrington (3)

Patrick Ramsey (32)

Byron Leftwich (7)

Kyle Boller (19)

Rex Grossman (22)

JP Losman (22)

Alex Smith (1)

Jason Campbell (25)

Vince Young (3)

Matt Leinart (10)

Jamarcus Russell (1)

Brady Quinn (22)

Mark Sanchez (5)

Tim Tebow (25)

 

I stopped the list at 2010 as some of the 2011-2012 guys who are struggling may come on.

 

Yes, there were a handful of good/great QBs drafted early over that range of years (1998-2010), but the list of less-than-successful early picks is much longer. Here is the list of (very liberally rated) successes as I see it:

Peyton Manning (1)

Donovan McNabb (2)

Michael Vick (1)

Carson Palmer (1)

Eli Manning (1)

Philip Rivers (4)

Ben Roethlisberger (11)

Aaron Rodgers (24)

Jay Cutler (11)

Matt Ryan (3)

Joe Flacco (18)

Matt Stafford (1)

Josh Freeman (17)

Sam Bradford (1)

 

To be sure, there were some good QBs drafted after round 1, but the success rate was more dismal. From round 1 1998-2010 (13 years), I count 14 marginal to excellent starters and 27 very bad selections. I haven't done the numbers, but I bet that there are much better odds of success with some other positions (like OT, DE, DT).

 

I am not sure what to conclude other than that a team should keep taking QBs yearly (or nearly yearly) until they find a good one. That doesn't necessarily mean in round 1 where the risk/reward is pretty high. I would conclude that the desperate need for QBs causes teams to overlook serious deficiencies in some prospects.

Edited March 9, 2013 by OldTimer1960

[Dibs]

Dibbs, I love your analysis and effort. I think that your investigation was quite thorough. I am just not sure that the conclusion is fully solid.

 

While I agree that most good starting QBs will be drafted in round 1 (and fairly early), (I am sure that you know) that is not the same as saying that over-drafting a QB in round 1 gives that player a good shot at becoming a good starting QB in the NFL.

 

I will acknowledge that things are changing recently in the NFL and more young QBs are showing signs of success, but draft history is full of failed QBs that were over-drafted by QB-starved teams including:

........

........

To be sure, there were some good QBs drafted after round 1, but the success rate was more dismal. From round 1 1998-2010 (13 years), I count 14 marginal to excellent starters and 27 very bad selections. I haven't done the numbers, but I bet that there are much better odds of success with some other positions (like OT, DE, DT).

 

I am not sure what to conclude other than that a team should keep taking QBs yearly (or nearly yearly) until they find a good one. That doesn't necessarily mean in round 1 where the risk/reward is pretty high. I would conclude that the desperate need for QBs causes teams to overlook serious deficiencies in some prospects.

 

I totally agree.....and I think overall we have pretty much the same thoughts on the issue.

 

My main point is in regards to drafting QBs after the 1st round.....and the common view that we can "pick one up in the 2nd".

 

Drafting inside the 1st round for QB has a very low success rate(as you{& I} have shown).....but drafting after the 1st round(or very high 2nd, top 36) has shown to have such a massively low success rate for finding solid starters, let alone a desired Elite QB, that it should not be considered in any plans for attempting to find ones QB of the future.

 

It is clear that the NFL scouts do a very good job......and any QB who has a glimmer of a chance to become an Elite QB is recognized.....and is virtually never selected past pick 36(I used to say pick 33 but I changed to avoid a Kaepernick discussion). Essentially, if your QB drops to the #41 pick, there is virtually no chance that he will become an Elite QB.

 

 

It is a total misconception that "there will be plenty of good QBs available in the 2nd round".

Edited March 9, 2013 by Dibs

[biggerdaddynj]

 

 

There's a chance that a team covets any number of players/positions at #8.

 

Quality left tackles for instance are a scare commodity in the NFL. There are three outstanding OT prospects this year, all considered top 10 picks.

 

Arguably you can never have enough outstanding cornerbacks.

 

Some teams are desperate for pass rush help because pass rushers are hard to find.

 

I think it's very plausible that the Bills could find a trade partner, provided they actually try.

I agree that the most likely trade down would involve a team looking for the number three OT because there is a legitimate drop-off after Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson (I think Johnson is the guy people might move for--after the Combine everyone was buzzing about his upside and some were saying he might turn out as the best of the lot because he has only played OT briefly so his ceiling is higher--personally wish this was last year when needed an OT). That said, even if it were possible, Buddy won't do it. I say we draft for value-defense not QB--LB, LB and then go QB or WR or TE. By the way, where are all the people who in the past years have vehemently opposed drafting for need rather than value?

 

[OldTimer1960]

I totally agree.....and I think overall we have pretty much the same thoughts on the issue.

 

My main point is in regards to drafting QBs after the 1st round.....and the common view that we can "pick one up in the 2nd".

 

Drafting inside the 1st round for QB has a very low success rate(as you{& I} have shown).....but drafting after the 1st round(or very high 2nd, top 36) has shown to have such a massively low success rate for finding solid starters, let alone a desired Elite QB, that it should not be considered in any plans for attempting to find ones QB of the future.

 

It is clear that the NFL scouts do a very good job......and any QB who has a glimmer of a chance to become an Elite QB is recognized.....and is virtually never selected past pick 36(I used to say pick 33 but I changed to avoid a Kaepernick discussion). Essentially, if your QB drops to the #41 pick, there is virtually no chance that he will become an Elite QB.

 

 

It is a total misconception that "there will be plenty of good QBs available in the 2nd round".

 

We are pretty much in agreement then on this. I just don't want the Bills' desperate need for a good starting QB to cause them to over-inflate their opinion on Smith or any other QB. I could accept it if they determined that there just aren't any good QB options this year and focused on improving other positions.

[Beerball]

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