[please fix subject]Linebacker

[FleaMoulds80]

We are NOT set at pass rush. Not even close. But, what if the BPA defensive player IS a reach? Ansah is the only one who seems to be a legit top 10 to me. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

I'm not the one who says we're set at d-line and pass rushing. It's these other yahoo's here. This is a d-line/olb HEAVY draft. One of these guys will be there for us and if we don't take one, then I'll be pissed. Screw a QB and just let Tarvaris take over for this year and address a QB in next year's draft.

 

I'll even wait till Kevin Hogan comes out from Stanford. Quality over quantity. I'd rather draft the RIGHT QB once than drafting the wrong QB every 4 fckin years like we've been doing.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Look at the teams that have drafted OTs in the top ten recently. Now tell me how many of those teams have been perennial playoff contenders, or Super Bowl winners recently. The answer is none. Good teams, like the 49ers, draft players like Aldon Smith in the top ten, or WRs like Julio Jones, or QBs if you think there is one that fits the bill. You don't draft CBs, RBs, or O-linemen.

 

Now that everyone else has taken a poke at you, it's my turn.

 

If you had written OG instead of OT, I might agree with your statement.

 

To all, how many guards have been:

 

1) Highly drafted and

 

2) Had a significant impact on the fortunes of their teams?

 

Back to your post, you're dead wrong about OTs. Even guys who've not yet fulfilled their promise like Trent Williams and Russell Okung are starting to find their footing and are integral parts of their team's successes.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

To all, how many guards have been:

 

1) Highly drafted and

 

2) Had a significant impact on the fortunes of their teams?

 

Since I still have my "pull" spreadsheet open - from pro-football-reference:

 

There have been 4 guards (as distinct from centers) drafted in the last 5 years (2008-present) in the 1st round.

Have they had a significant impact on the fortunes of their teams? A little bit harder to quantitate.

How about if I tell you who they are and you tell me:

Dave DeCastro (Pitt, 2012)

Kevin Zeitler (Cin, 2012)

Mike Iupati (SF, 2010)

Branden Albert (Kan, 2008) - note that Albert played guard pretty much exclusively in college, but was converted to LT by the Chiefs. Guess we'll see how impactful the chiefs think he is since he's a FA

[Dibs]

 

To all, how many guards have been:

 

1) Highly drafted and

 

2) Had a significant impact on the fortunes of their teams?

 

 

Part 1 is easy to answer.....part 2 is impossible to determine due to many variable factors IMO.

 

Part 1:

I personally think it more appropriate when it comes to OGs to look at top 17.....or 1st round selections......but obviously since we have the #8 pick, top 10 is the pertinent area.

 

There has only been 1 OG selected in the top 10 in the past 26 years(since 1987)......Chris Naeole pick 10 1997.

 

There were only been 3 OGs selected in the top 10 in the previous 11 years(1976 - 1986).

 

The mid 70s back to the 60's seemed to have a much higher premium placed upon OGs with 10 selected inside the top 10(6 inside top 5) in a 16 year span(1960 - 1975).

 

 

I believe that there are two factors as to why OGs are rarely drafted inside the top 10....yet were commonplace 40 years ago.

Firstly, the NFL has maneuvered into more of a passing league. Back in the day, the running game was seen to be the way to win championships. OGs being considered a key element to the run game would therefore have their position deemed to be of a higher priority than in modern times.

 

The second factor is that due to the passing game becoming more important, the OT position becomes more important. I imagine that throughout the development process for young players in modern times, the more athletic OLmen are steered towards OT.....meaning that there are far fewer top OG prospects.

 

 

Part 2:

This really is impossible to tell. IMO, QB is the only position where it is possible to confidently determine a players contribution to success.

For example, OJ Simpson(though not a top 10 pick) was astonishingly good through 6 seasons. The Bills however only managed to make 1 playoff appearance in that time. Does this mean that RB has/had little importance to the impact of a teams success?

 

Personally I think OG, like most positions, is only one part of the whole. It may have less impact than most positions.....but without a good OL.....which includes good OGs....the running game will likely suffer.....which leads to opposing Ds focusing against the passing game.....which leads to the passing game suffering....which leads to many 3 & out situations......which leads to the D having to be on the field too long....which leads to breakdowns in the defense.....which leads to opposing teams scoring too much.....which leads to getting blown out every game.

(Hopefully that helps explain my thoughts on why all positions are important )

 

 

In terms of Warmack. He seems to be a rare talent.....and likely will make any team happy they drafted him inside the top 10.

The success rate for OGs is amazing inside the first 2 rounds......which leads me to believe there is an extremely good chance that Warmack will become at least a solid starter.

Not for us though. If we let Levitre walk....and draft Warmack instead, we will be basically treading water.

[T master]

Look at the teams that have drafted OTs in the top ten recently. Now tell me how many of those teams have been perennial playoff contenders, or Super Bowl winners recently. The answer is none. Good teams, like the 49ers, draft players like Aldon Smith in the top ten, or WRs like Julio Jones, or QBs if you think there is one that fits the bill. You don't draft CBs, RBs, or O-linemen.

 

Didn't the 49er's in recent drafts (with in 2 years) pick up at least 2 starting O lineman Joe Staley & Mike Iuopati in the first couple of rounds ??

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Since I still have my "pull" spreadsheet open - from pro-football-reference:

 

There have been 4 guards (as distinct from centers) drafted in the last 5 years (2008-present) in the 1st round.

Have they had a significant impact on the fortunes of their teams? A little bit harder to quantitate.

How about if I tell you who they are and you tell me:

Dave DeCastro (Pitt, 2012)

Kevin Zeitler (Cin, 2012)

Mike Iupati (SF, 2010)

Branden Albert (Kan, 2008) - note that Albert played guard pretty much exclusively in college, but was converted to LT by the Chiefs. Guess we'll see how impactful the chiefs think he is since he's a FA

 

Thanks Hopeful.

 

Danny Watkins was also drafted in the first round, 24th overall in the 2011 draft. So far he has been a bust. And I remember numerous posters touting him just as many are touting Warmack and were touting DeCastro last year. Tough, dominating, street fighter, smash-mouth, etc ad nauseum.

 

DeCastro (also picked 24th overall) only played 4 games last year due to injury so he gets no grade. However his teammate Maurkice Pouncey (18th overall) is considered one of the best centers to come out in years (probably since Mangold), made All Pro as a rookie, and is currently a member of one of the poorer O-lines in football. Point being, center is a more important position than guard but it's still less important than offensive tackle. Point also being that you draft tackles and centers and if they can't handle those positions, move them to guard.

 

Branden Albert (15th overall and the highest drafted NFL guard since Chris Naeole was drafted 10th in 1997) is an anomaly because he was drafted to play tackle and immediately made the conversion from college guard to NFL tackle which is basically unheard of.

 

As NoSaint has pointed out numerous times, the Saints' ridiculously outstanding guards, multiple-time All Pros Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks (now with Tampa Bay) were both college tackles who became elite NFL guards. Again, it's usually better to draft tackles and centers. Evans was drafted 108th overall and Nicks was drafted 164th overall. They're both on the short list of best guards in the NFL.

 

Zeitler looks like he's gonna be a good one but again, he was drafted 27th overall, the first guard drafted after 2 OTs were taken. We'll see if drafting Zeitler before Cordy Glenn, Mitchell Schwartz, and Jonathan Martin was a good idea or not.

 

Iupati looks to be an awesome player and was selected 17th overall, the first guard taken after 3 OTs were taken Russell Okung, Trent Williams, and teammate Anthony Davis. Both Iupati and Davis have started all 48 games as pros.

 

Iupati could become one of those transcendent guards like Hutchinson (17th overall) and Faneca (26th overall) but again, he was drafted 17th overall.

 

People can draw their own conclusions from the facts I've presented and the fact that NFL GMs don't take guards highly in the draft.

 

edit: I'll be pissed as hell if the Bills burn the #8 pick on a guard.

 

At least draft the goddarned tackle instead.

Edited March 3, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan

[Dibs]

People can draw their own conclusions from the facts I've presented and the fact that NFL GMs don't take guards highly in the draft.

 

edit: I'll be pissed as hell if the Bills burn the #8 pick on a guard.

 

At least draft the goddarned tackle instead.

 

Though I'll be pissed if we draft an OG too.....your "facts" seem to suggest that there is not a high success rate with high drafted OGs.

This is not the case as OG likely has the highest success rates of all positions drafted. There is however not a great deal of drop-off between the success rates of 1st round OGs and those of 2nd round OGs.

 

While OG is considered to be less valuable than most other positions, it would be better use of draft capital to draft one in the 2nd round to try and find your solid starter.

 

 

Hopefully this discussion will be moot.....and we re-sign Levitre....thus freeing up the #8(or 2nd round) pick for a different position.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

 

Though I'll be pissed if we draft an OG too.....your "facts" seem to suggest that there is not a high success rate with high drafted OGs.

This is not the case as OG likely has the highest success rates of all positions drafted.

 

Actually my point during my entire post was that you don't invest high draft picks in guards. I didn't attempt to address success rates.

 

Agree with you on Levitre although I think that's a coin flip at best.

[biggerdaddynj]

 

 

I'm not the one who says we're set at d-line and pass rushing. It's these other yahoo's here. This is a d-line/olb HEAVY draft. One of these guys will be there for us and if we don't take one, then I'll be pissed. Screw a QB and just let Tarvaris take over for this year and address a QB in next year's draft.

 

I'll even wait till Kevin Hogan comes out from Stanford. Quality over quantity. I'd rather draft the RIGHT QB once than drafting the wrong QB every 4 fckin years like we've been doing.

Amen, brother!!! Load up on value. As for drafting an OT, sure it would help but with Glenn, Pears, Hairston and Sanders, I gotta hope we have two solid OTs to put out there. However, is the upgrade at OT going to make more of an impact than a LB or hybrid OLB/DE on Pettine's 3-4 hybrid when all we've got is Sheppard and Bradham (Moats? White?)--I'm not so bright but I think we don't have a better LB corps than most SEC teams! I'm a Jersey guy for crying out loud--Rutgers' two draft eligible LBs Khaseem Greene and Steve Beauharnais might be better than our top two--pretty sad!! As for WR, easy to make a similar case over OT--I just personally think there is no WR worth a top 10--gotta take at least one WR and a TE (depending on how we play out FA-if we sign a TE then take 2 WRs).

[djp14150]

 

 

I'll keep harping on it...when it's apple season, pick apples. Take the O-lineman. Get the QB and the LB later.

 

OL is not a need for them in the first round. Even if Levitre isnt signed, a guard can be found off the street for cheap. They can also draft one.

 

You balance where your needs are and where the player is rated in your internal player rankings, also taking into account what your team needs are and depth at the position in the draft.

 

Drafting the best despite your need is also dumb. A team that has 2 good RBs doesnt put a high pick on another RB.

[Kemp]

There's no LB that worth a top 10 pick.....not when you may be able to get a franchise LT or a generational talent at OG. Drafting for need is what has gotten Buffalo into trouble in the 1st place. Troupe. Williams. Graham.

 

I'll keep harping on it...when it's apple season, pick apples. Take the O-lineman. Get the QB and the LB later.

 

Normally, drafting for need is a mistake, but in all the years I have been watching the Bills, I have never seen a group as bad as their current linebacking, and it has been that way for a while.

 

If one of those Georgia LBs excites the guys in charge I grab one of them at 8.

[Dragonborn10]

Let Levitre walk. Draft Warmack. Make a play for Mike Wallace. Take BPA in the draft. This team has so many holes. They can't waste money on a G. Spend big on a WR. There are no QB's worth #8. If you say draft OT and move Glenn to RT I would not argue. First rounders should go to the lines. Get the skill people in FA. Honestly if they drafted three LB's I would not be upset. I could see three rookies beating out Bradham and Shep.

[unpaid_bills34]

We just need some solid LBs who can tackle and stop the run. Our division has some really tough TE matchups. I like our DL I would like to see a stud LB in the draft and 1-2 solid FA leaders. Barnett was beaten down last season but he and Wilson were the leaders I don't see others stepping up is all

[Baba Booey]

Definately need to get some high quality LB's to run Pettine's D, hopefully in FA and maybe Dion Jordan falls far enough so we can take him. I saw a mock draft though which had us taking Kenny Vaccarro from Texas, not a bad idea to have two great young safetys. Don't know if good idea or not with to many holes to fill on D, should get best available in first round this draft is way to hard to figure out. I just hope they don't take QB with first, not a first rounder in the whole lot of them!!!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Thanks Hopeful.

 

Danny Watkins was also drafted in the first round, 24th overall in the 2011 draft. So far he has been a bust. And I remember numerous posters touting him just as many are touting Warmack and were touting DeCastro last year. Tough, dominating, street fighter, smash-mouth, etc ad nauseum. (.......) Point being, center is a more important position than guard but it's still less important than offensive tackle. Point also being that you draft tackles and centers and if they can't handle those positions, move them to guard.

 

 

Watkins is kind of a case in favor of your point isn't he? He didn't come up in my search for guards, because he played LT at Baylor

(He's also a case in favor of a point I'm pondering, which is I think the risk ratchets up when we draft a guy who has only played 1 year at a competitive level. Watkins came out in his jr year after 1 yr playing for Baylor)

 

I'm not entirely sure I buy the common 'LT>>C' argument. When asked whether or not the Bills have a decent OL I have a two word question: "Got Wood?"

 

I guess one thing that puzzles me somewhat, is the emphasis (not necessarily yours, but you somewhat imply it) on the top 10 picks as "high picks"

It seems to me that if we want to know what the perennial contender teams consider important, we have to look especially hard at the bottom half of the 1st round - 'cuz top teams ain't draftin' in the top 15 (unless they trade up, very rare)

 

edit: I'll be pissed as hell if the Bills burn the #8 pick on a guard.

At least draft the goddarned tackle instead.

 

Indeed - ESPECIALLY if they let Levitre go, and then burn the #8 pick on a guard. I understand somewhat where the TBDians who are upset about not tendering Nelson and Jones are coming from.

But Levitre was enabling ALL the offensive players, performed creditably at LT when called upon, and is commonly rated as one of the best FA OLmen.

 

Mock drafts which have the Bills drafting OL at #8 and sometimes state the loss of Levitre as a motivation for this, is undeniably a classic example of the kind of "stay in one place" hole-filling drafting that Bills fans have been repeatedly subjected to for the last decade-and-a-half.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Hopeful

[Nanker]

Was sent to this linky thing from a thread on Barkley's intangibles, and found down below an interesting tidbit about Ziggy Ansah.

 

*Many people were impressed with Ziggy Ansah’s 4.56 40 yard dash at 271 pounds, and rightfully so. But they would have been more impressed if they knew Ansah didn’t even train for the event. Unlike probably every other player in attendance, Ansah kept going to class and never worked with an outside trainer to prepare for the combine. In fact, the 40 yard dash he ran at the combine was the first of his life, according to his agent Frank Bauer. It should be noted, however, that Ansah did run 100 meter dash and the 200 meters on the Brigham Young track team before he became a football player. - See more at:

http://www.nationalf...h.TtGjpVJn.dpuf

[3rdand12]

We just need some solid LBs who can tackle and stop the run. Our division has some really tough TE matchups. I like our DL I would like to see a stud LB in the draft and 1-2 solid FA leaders. Barnett was beaten down last season but he and Wilson were the leaders I don't see others stepping up is all

As i have said before I hold Wannstadt accountable for the drop off in play {big} by Wilson and Barnett among others.

But it's a new sheriff in town.

I agree. drafting a stud linebacker who can cover and finding a Vet with some gas left who can captain the defense is an important step in the right direction.

We were weak before, as of today we are nearly depleted.

[biggerdaddynj]

Normally, drafting for need is a mistake, but in all the years I have been watching the Bills, I have never seen a group as bad as their current linebacking, and it has been that way for a while.

 

If one of those Georgia LBs excites the guys in charge I grab one of them at 8.

[jcbillsfan]

 

 

Look at the teams that have drafted OTs in the top ten recently. Now tell me how many of those teams have been perennial playoff contenders, or Super Bowl winners recently. The answer is none. Good teams, like the 49ers, draft players like Aldon Smith in the top ten, or WRs like Julio Jones, or QBs if you think there is one that fits the bill. You don't draft CBs, RBs, or O-linemen.

 

 

Look at the teams that have drafted OTs in the top ten recently. Now tell me how many of those teams have been perennial playoff contenders, or Super Bowl winners recently. The answer is none. Good teams, like the 49ers, draft players like Aldon Smith in the top ten, or WRs like Julio Jones, or QBs if you think there is one that fits the bill. You don't draft CBs, RBs, or O-linemen.

 

THe 49ers are a little misleading they have a lot of high picks invested in their o line

secondly each draft is different . Everyone would love a can't miss wideout or qb to be available at 8 . Unless smilth falls qb is not an option. The strength of this draft is oline/dline , you need to get a cornerstone player at 8 no matter what the position.

 

it could be jordan or the byu kid that fill need or a left tackle that is by far the best value on the board, it all has to play out

 

 

[bowery4]

One might point out our own Oline (which has been much better the last few years, when not injured, but when was that?lol) is a first round center, 2nd round guard, 2nd round LT and 3rd round guard. Rt not so much..... See the difference there? I would be okay with a T at 8. and or a guard in the second. And then LBs, QBs, WRs and CBs. What I really wish is we had 15 picks. How the eff did SF do that?