Thread for intelligent football dicussion

[gumby]

Sadly, everyone missed the point of my thread. Let me make a few things clear:

 

1. RYAN FITZPATRICK IS NOT THE LONG-TERM ANSWER AT QB. I never said he was. Here's what I believe may be the case however:

 

2. There may be enough talent on this football team that it may not be worth taking two steps back by drafting a Ryan Tannehill/Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert type of QB just for the sake of drafting a QB. A middle of the first round/top of the second round QB will NOT be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick next season. And if you do draft one of those guys and he takes a year and "grooms" behind Fitzpatrick, well then, you just took a year in Spiller/Wood/Levitre/Stevie Johnson/Byrd/Dareus/Mario Williams, etc's prime where you could have instead drafted a linebacker who could start and make an impact NOW and make yourself that much closer to contending for a playoff spot, which I still believe they're not all that far away from with any sort of defense whatsoever. Most importantly however:

 

 

 

I do not agree with this. I'd take Ponder or Tannehill right now over Fitzpatrick. I do agree that Gabbert seems as of now to be a bust but he's the exception to the QBs drafted recently. Nor do I agree that a rookie QB needs to be "groomed" for several seasons. Newton, Luck, RG3, Dalton, Ponder, Tannehill, Locker have all stepped in and performed from ok to very good. Many college teams are running pro-style offenses today so the idea of "grooming" a QB to the pro game is becoming a thing of the past.

 

I also believe that if the Bills found the second coming of Dick Butkus they wouldn't be going anywhere without a legitimate QB running the show. The NFL is a passing league and becoming more so with every year. I think the days of a 6000 yard passer is coming. That's what the league wants because offense sells tickets.

 

As long as the Bills keep trotting out what amounts to a back-up QB, because they have no one better, nothing will ever really change

[stinky finger]

Let's see.......Fitz sliced and diced a defense like QB's Sanchez, Kolb and a rookie Wilson has done, right?

 

Yes, an impressive performance but big time QB's finish the job. He didn't and he's not. The Pats secondary is hooooriffic.

 

We NEED a QB. Period.

 

But wait.....HE did say F U to a linebacker......geezus.

Edited November 14, 2012 by billsoverdue

[Jauronimo]

Do they though? Teams don't trade or otherwise make available franchise QB's. The only way we're ever getting THE GUY is the through the draft. Buddy Nix is not going to take a middle-of-the-road QB prospect just to appease the fanbase. We need three starting LB's.

Everyone loves that first round QB pick. Just look at the amazing starts that Freeman, Tannehill, Newton, Dalton, Luck, Griffin, Bradford and Stafford enjoyed. Ponder and Gabbert have even shown flashes. Problem is, 3 to 4 years from now most of these teams will be questioning whether or not they've really found their guy. Once defensive coordinators get some tape on these young QBs its a different ball game. Its fun to hope and think about what your young QB prospect can be in a few years if they continue to develop, but ultimately most fail to progress.

[stinky finger]

Sadly, everyone missed the point of my thread. Let me make a few things clear:

 

1. RYAN FITZPATRICK IS NOT THE LONG-TERM ANSWER AT QB. I never said he was. Here's what I believe may be the case however:

 

2. There may be enough talent on this football team that it may not be worth taking two steps back by drafting a Ryan Tannehill/Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert type of QB just for the sake of drafting a QB. A middle of the first round/top of the second round QB will NOT be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick next season. And if you do draft one of those guys and he takes a year and "grooms" behind Fitzpatrick, well then, you just took a year in Spiller/Wood/Levitre/Stevie Johnson/Byrd/Dareus/Mario Williams, etc's prime where you could have instead drafted a linebacker who could start and make an impact NOW and make yourself that much closer to contending for a playoff spot, which I still believe they're not all that far away from with any sort of defense whatsoever. Most importantly however:

 

3. If there is a LEGIT franchise QB in the first round, you take him. Period end of story.

 

4. I'm just not so sure there will be.

 

Dolphins aren't better with Tannehill this year?

 

Vikings haven't been improved since Ponder took over?

[metzelaars_lives]

Dolphins aren't better with Tannehill this year?

 

Vikings haven't been improved since Ponder took over?

 

Huge difference- these teams were dead in the water on offense before they took over. Bills are not. The Bills would not be higher than 14th this year on offense, which last I checked they are, with either of those two guys playing QB. In fact, they'd be lower. And the Dolphins wouldn't be any better or worse with Matt Moore at QB this year.

[Orton's Arm]

This team needs three LB's before a new QB

 

No. 100% No.

 

Franchise QBs are very rare. Generally, 0 - 1 franchise QBs enter the NFL each year. This means that a typical NFL team will receive a new franchise QB about once every 40 years.

 

Nine of the last ten Super Bowl winning teams had franchise QBs. It is almost impossible to win a Super Bowl without a franchise QB.

 

If you don't already have a franchise QB, and if a franchise QB is there for the taking, you take him. The absolute worst, most boneheaded, dumbest thing you could possibly do in a situation like that is to say, "I won't take a franchise QB right now. I'll fill a hole at ______ instead, and get my franchise QB later."

 

If he's lucky, a typical NFL GM will get one chance to obtain a franchise QB. With the average team adding a new franchise QB once every 40 years, most GMs don't even get that one chance. If for any reason a GM chooses to pass up his one chance to get a franchise QB, he all but guarantees that his team will not win a Super Bowl on his watch.

[Buftex]

The Bills made the mistake of drafting JP Losman in the first round, just because they wanted to say they had drafted a "franchise QB". If they make that same mistake again, then they are really no better off (maybe even worse off) than if they stick with Fitz another year, despite his erractic quality of play...you only pick a "franchise QB" if there is one available...the Bills experiments in terror serve as proof positive that you can't wish a guy into being a "franchise QB".

[Orton's Arm]

The Bills made the mistake of drafting JP Losman in the first round, just because they wanted to say they had drafted a "franchise QB". If they make that same mistake again, then they are really no better off (maybe even worse off) than if they stick with Fitz another year, despite his erractic quality of play...you only pick a "franchise QB" if there is one available...the Bills experiments in terror serve as proof positive that you can't wish a guy into being a "franchise QB".

 

TD's misplaced faith in Losman was by far his single biggest error, and was his defining moment as the Bills' GM.

 

1) In the 2004 draft, TD inquired about trading up with Houston, to be able to draft Roethlisberger. However, Houston asked what TD felt was too high a price. TD seemed to conclude, Why get ripped off by Houston for a QB like Roethlisberger, when it would be a lot cheaper, in terms of draft picks, to take a guy like Losman?

 

2) Matt Schaub was taken in the third round of 2004. TD didn't feel the need to take Schaub, because he'd drafted Losman in the first round of that same draft. Schaub has become one of the five or six best QBs in the league. The only time Losman achieved top-5 status, he was playing for the Las Vegas Locomotives.

 

3) Aaron Rodgers was drafted toward the end of the first round in 2005. TD didn't have a first round pick in the 2005 draft, because he'd traded it away for Losman. Nor did he feel a need to draft a QB, because he had Losman. Rodgers has since become a better QB than Brady.

 

Had it not been for TD's misplaced faith in Losman, he would have had three separate opportunities to draft a franchise QB for the Bills. The problem is that TD paid too much attention to Losman's physical measurables, and too little attention to intelligence, accuracy, and intangibles.

[Fan in Chicago]

The Bills made the mistake of drafting JP Losman in the first round, just because they wanted to say they had drafted a "franchise QB". If they make that same mistake again, then they are really no better off (maybe even worse off) than if they stick with Fitz another year, despite his erractic quality of play...you only pick a "franchise QB" if there is one available...the Bills experiments in terror serve as proof positive that you can't wish a guy into being a "franchise QB".

 

Too often we get caught up in term of 'franchise QB'. That term can cover a range of QBs. The best will be the likes of Brady, Rodgers, Mannings. The next (slightly lower tier) are guys like Flacco, Matt Ryan who though not as good as the topmost tier, can still be defined as 'franchise QBs'. In our desire to look for the former, let us not overlook what the latters bring to the table. IMHO, a Flaccco or Ryan can be more than adequate to take this team to the promised land. If we hold out for the next prospects most similar to Luck and RGIII, we could be waiting a real long time. All the while letting season after season slip away with the slavish adherence to BPA

[Big Hurt]

NE can't stop anyone either. Judge Fitz against better defenses. I'll be interested to see what he does against Miami.

 

So if Fitz scores tons of points against the Fish, will it be good enough for you? Or does the fish has terrible defense?

 

There is no sure fire QB in this draft. If we can fix the defense by drafting a stud linebacker, I think we should do it. Geno Smith is projected to be a 2nd round pick. But he will need a lot of time to develop. Fitz is playing better in the last two games. Let him finish this season before calling for his head.

[Sisyphean Bills]

TD's misplaced faith in Losman was by far his single biggest error, and was his defining moment as the Bills' GM.

 

1) In the 2004 draft, TD inquired about trading up with Houston, to be able to draft Roethlisberger. However, Houston asked what TD felt was too high a price. TD seemed to conclude, Why get ripped off by Houston for a QB like Roethlisberger, when it would be a lot cheaper, in terms of draft picks, to take a guy like Losman?

 

2) Matt Schaub was taken in the third round of 2004. TD didn't feel the need to take Schaub, because he'd drafted Losman in the first round of that same draft. Schaub has become one of the five or six best QBs in the league. The only time Losman achieved top-5 status, he was playing for the Las Vegas Locomotives.

 

3) Aaron Rodgers was drafted toward the end of the first round in 2005. TD didn't have a first round pick in the 2005 draft, because he'd traded it away for Losman. Nor did he feel a need to draft a QB, because he had Losman. Rodgers has since become a better QB than Brady.

 

Had it not been for TD's misplaced faith in Losman, he would have had three separate opportunities to draft a franchise QB for the Bills. The problem is that TD paid too much attention to Losman's physical measurables, and too little attention to intelligence, accuracy, and intangibles.

 

This really strikes to the heart of what has been a truly pathetic scouting department. Donahoe trusted his draft board and went all in for JP Losman, which turned out to be a far reaching failure that has had negative repercussions for years. When Modrak and his crew gave JP Losman the same basic grade as Roethlisberger and Rivers and compounded that by saying no one else in that same draft or even the next draft was anywhere close ... well, it was another one of the catastrophically lousy decisions that the Bills front office dumped on its suffering fan base. The Bills have the longest non-playoff streak in the NFL for a reason.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The niners look pretty good with Alex smith/ kapernick (no idea how to spell that) and a solid D. The Seahawks seem to be competing in every game with a rookie QB. Chicago looks unbeatable with hit or miss Cutler. Consider what Arizona is doing with not only atrocious QB play, but crappy RBs too.

 

What I am trying to say is it is perfectly possible to win with the QB we have, by improving other elements around the team. I do think we need to draft a young guy to groom, because Fitz can be infuriatingly bad at times, and we dont have a competant backup on the team.

 

We need Linebackers that can tackle, and a Coordinator whos not afraid to take chances. A leader on D would do wonders too, our whole team too often is looking around for someone to tell them how to play, where to go etc.

[HOUSE]

Look Fitz will beat up on some crummy teams before seasons end and who knows, maybe Fitz can get another extension

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Right with everyone on Losman hate. I hated this guy from the moment we traded up to get him. He doesnt look like a QB, doesnt carry himself like hes the guy. Even Rob Johnson had some of the swagger needed to be a QB. Losman was a bust from day 1.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Intelligent football discussion?

 

Alright, here's my take on Fitz:

 

(4)

(5)

[metzelaars_lives]

The Bills made the mistake of drafting JP Losman in the first round, just because they wanted to say they had drafted a "franchise QB". If they make that same mistake again, then they are really no better off (maybe even worse off) than if they stick with Fitz another year, despite his erractic quality of play...you only pick a "franchise QB" if there is one available...the Bills experiments in terror serve as proof positive that you can't wish a guy into being a "franchise QB".

 

Thank you. That's all I'm trying to say. And to take it one tiny step further, I don't think Fitz is putrid enough to bring someone else in unless they're a surefire bet at being an upgrade day one.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Thank you. That's all I'm trying to say. And to take it one tiny step further, I don't think Fitz is putrid enough to bring someone else in unless they're a surefire bet at being an upgrade day one.

 

[Astrobot]

It took Nix 3 years to find a LT, he still hasn't found some top LBers although he keeps drafting them.

 

http://www.drafthist...hp/positions/lb

 

Have we really done our best scouting at LB? --No.

Have we been picking in late rounds too often for today's game? --Yes.

Were there LB's after our pick that did better than what/where we picked? --Very few.

Did teams pick a guy we were interested in before it was our turn? --At least twice.

Is it Nix's fault? --Maybe not.

 

2012
RD5 147 Tank Carder Bills Texas Christian
RD4 105 Nigel Bradham Bills Florida State
2011
RD3 68 Kelvin Sheppard Bills Louisiana State
RD6 169 Chris White Bills Mississippi State
2010
RD6 178 Arthur Moats Bills James Madison
2008
RD5 147 Alvin Bowen Bills Iowa State
2007
RD2 34 Paul Posluszny Bills Penn State
2006
RD6 178 Keith Ellison Bills Oregon State
2003
RD3 94 Angelo Crowell Bills Virginia
RD7 228 Mario Haggan Bills Mississippi State

Edited November 14, 2012 by Astrobot

[San Jose Bills Fan]

http://www.drafthist...hp/positions/lb

 

Have we really done our best scouting at LB? --No.

Have we been picking in late rounds too often for today's game? --Yes.

Were there LB's after our pick that did better than what/where we picked? --Very few.

Did teams pick a guy we were interested in before it was our turn? --At least twice.

Is it Nix's fault? --Maybe not.

 

2012
RD5 147 Tank Carder Bills Texas Christian
RD4 105 Nigel Bradham Bills Florida State
2011
RD3 68 Kelvin Sheppard Bills Louisiana State
RD6 169 Chris White Bills Mississippi State
2010
RD6 178 Arthur Moats Bills James Madison
2008
RD5 147 Alvin Bowen Bills Iowa State
2007
RD2 34 Paul Posluszny Bills Penn State
2006
RD6 178 Keith Ellison Bills Oregon State
2003
RD3 94 Angelo Crowell Bills Virginia
RD7 228 Mario Haggan Bills Mississippi State

 

For purposes of this discussion, I'm gonna have to ask you to express your views in complex quadratic equations or at least in a first degree polynomial format.

 

I will say though that pre-2010 drafts are pretty irrelevant to the discussion excepting the fact that Chixley inherited Poz and failed to retain him.

[Sisyphean Bills]

LB is the RB of defense. Someone did an aggregate average of draft position across the NFL for each starter and each team and LB came out the lowest. In other words, it really shouldn't be that hard to find a guy that can run and tackle ball carriers. Anybody remember the 90s, when the Bills seemed to have an inexhaustible supply of solid LBs?

 

The Bills LB situation is a mess. They seemed to go on a bigger is better kick when Nix took control, apparently thinking putting a bunch of big, slow guys on the field would make the run defense stout. That plan backfired and now Wannstedt is trying to use the residuals in a vanilla, run-sideline-to-sideline scheme. And, that looks real, real bad. Go figure.