Bad Strategy.. Kick off specialist..

[VanCity]

It's a tough call here, but I am less concerned about the effectiveness of Potter and more concerned about the roster spot. For those of you wondering who I would add to the active roster, it would be a WR. The team is so short with the loss of Nelson that a WR may be the most effective addition to a team thats coach preaches the gospel of the spread offense. I am not there at practice to witness the the issue(s) with him, but I'd still love to see Easley put out there to see if he's even worth holding onto on the PS. Preseason was less than impressive, but who did impress on the Bills roster in preseason?

 

As for the effectiveness of Potter, I completely understand why he is out there. But one of he or Lindell is a luxury. A luxury that a team that got blown out 48-28 shouldn't be able to afford. Potter better be getting a lot of FG practice because Lindell isn't going to be getting any better at kickoffs.

[NoSaint]

Lindell is terrible at kickoffs. Potter is excellent at them. The last roster spot is basically a practice squad player as we have to designate a few player inactive. It's unlikely that player even dresses, while Potter can actually have an effect on the game. If we had a FG kicker that was effective at kicking off, the spot is useless, but our FG kicker sucks at kicking off. I'm glad potter is here. I hope he can get better at FGs and eventually take Lindell's spot.

 

kind of a half truth - if potter wasnt active on game days, someone else could dress. the obvious answer last week would have been TJ i suppose, who might have had an impact, although i suspect minimal if chan didnt totally trust him.

[eSJayDee]

Potter had 4 KOs + an onside kick (I'd contend that we'd have been better have Lindell attempt that, but this is beside the point). 3 touchbacks & one tackle inside the 20. I'm sure there were a few players active (read Joe B's assessments) that played less than 4 plays, let alone had as positive of an impact.

Lindell is a proven, quality placekicker. Is he the best - no, but again, he has not shown anything that would indicate that he should be replaced for plackicking duties. His kickoffs are mediocre. Potter appears to have as good of a leg as anyone in the league.

A few yards for initial field position isn't going to make much of a difference. However, every return yields the chance of significant improved position (we'll assume that the chances of a turnover & TD roughly offset). W/ improved position comes greater chance of scoring.

For me, it's plainly obvious that it's worth a roster spot (& usually being active) for this advantage. As someone said above, your 6th WR or 8 DL are unlikely to provide as such added utility.

[NoSaint]

Potter had 4 KOs + an onside kick (I'd contend that we'd have been better have Lindell attempt that, but this is beside the point). 3 touchbacks & one tackle inside the 20. I'm sure there were a few players active (read Joe B's assessments) that played less than 4 plays, let alone had as positive of an impact.

Lindell is a proven, quality placekicker. Is he the best - no, but again, he has not shown anything that would indicate that he should be replaced for plackicking duties. His kickoffs are mediocre. Potter appears to have as good of a leg as anyone in the league.

A few yards for initial field position isn't going to make much of a difference. However, every return yields the chance of significant improved position (we'll assume that the chances of a turnover & TD roughly offset). W/ improved position comes greater chance of scoring.

For me, it's plainly obvious that it's worth a roster spot (& usually being active) for this advantage. As someone said above, your 6th WR or 8 DL are unlikely to provide as such added utility.

 

i wouldnt even assume that TD and turnover offset.

 

Id say that you have to get more turnovers than TDs allowed to balance that out as that turnover wont equate to TDs every time.

[Malazan]

I think I will start a thread about the Hot Dog selection and how this is holding the Bills back.

[Webster Guy]

You're talking about gambling tackling someone a few yards inside the 20 vs the threat of someone taking it all the way back on you.

 

We just gave up a special teams punt return TD, we obviously are a risk on kickoffs too.

 

It's a math game. Every team in the league tries to crush the kickoff deep for a touchback because the special teams coaches have looked at the average returns and the numbers support kicking it through the endzone and guaranteeing a long field for the other team.

[Orton's Arm]

Don't really like starting threads.. but had to get this off my chest..

 

A kick off specialist has got to be the stupidest thing I've ever heard of. Why give the other team the 20 every series? Good teams kick the ball deep and dare the opponent to try to run it back. Good teams tackle inside the 20.. There are high chances of a penalty on the return team and there's always a chance for a turnover. Kicking the ball through the endzone takes away so many opportunities. It seems like it would be much better to use this roster spot for a special teams ace/cb/wr/lb.

 

Rant over..

You say that if the Bills didn't have a kickoff specialist, they might be able to tackle guys short of the 20. Fair enough. But it stands to reason that there's a good amount of overlap between your punt coverage unit and your kickoff coverage unit. How impressive did the punt coverage unit look to you? Did you say to yourself,I want to see the Bills' punt/kickoff coverage unit asked to do more, because they've done such a good job with the responsibilities they already have?

[amacc]

I don't argue the logic or the statistics backing the importance of consistent touchbacks. The main problem I have with the whole kickoff specialist discussion is the underlying issue. I think Rian Lindell has been a done a good job but he is 35 years old and seems to be middle of the road in regards to field goal percentage. Other teams anticipate this and attempt to plug in a better option before it gets to this point. I could maybe see some reasoning for a kickoff specialist if your field goal kicker was extremely accurate and top five statistically each year but that is not Lindell at this point. I don't know if it is a loyalty thing or just simply that they could not find someone else that could handle both duties. The simple point is that teams are able to find kickers that can be successful in touchbacks and field goals.

[jake24]

I think its great having a kickoff specialist..My question is why the hell do we still have Brad Smith? Has he even seen the field since we have signed him? What a waste of money. Why don't we just release that bum and bring another WR aboard !!!

[Meark]

Come on really guys?

 

Why are we the only team that can't find 1 kicker to do the job?

 

It's not only about who would replace him on the roster... I can give you a list of people I would rather have. This has nothing to do with winning week 1.. It's not only about field position.. The point is we have two kickers to do the job that every other NFL team does with 1. It's just a stupid decision..

 

FYI, if our special teams actually had to make tackles on the kick offs.. maybe they would have been better prepared on that punt return.. Unfortunately our special teams guys don't seem to get much practice actually tackling..

[NoSaint]

Come on really guys?

 

Why are we the only team that can't find 1 kicker to do the job?

 

It's not only about who would replace him on the roster... I can give you a list of people I would rather have. This has nothing to do with winning week 1.. It's not only about field position.. The point is we have two kickers to do the job that every other NFL team does with 1. It's just a stupid decision..

 

FYI, if our special teams actually had to make tackles on the kick offs.. maybe they would have been better prepared on that punt return.. Unfortunately our special teams guys don't seem to get much practice actually tackling..

 

well, i have a lot of issues with this post, top to bottom.

 

A lot of teams do have one guy handling both, poorly. i would venture there are very few teams that have a kicker with higher FG and touchback percentages than our guys will average out with. in fact, i bet a lot of teams one guy doing not just one but both those things worse. we have one kicker that can do the job sufficiently, but we opted for a second that will help us do the job exceptionally while hopefully training to take over the role full time.

 

next, if its not about the roster spot, why do you care about the extra body on the roster. if you dont care who replaces him, why do you want someone to replace him so badly.

 

after that, not wanting them to kick touchbacks is generally a poor plan, as has been outlined a dozen times by numerous people in this very thread. stopping them at the 17 or 18 yard line once in awhile is not worth giving up runs past the 20 much more often.

 

 

Really the only argument you have is the roster spot, and for some reason you keep refusing it.

Edited September 12, 2012 by NoSaint

[Best Player Available]

I dont know whether I agree with you or disagree with you.

 

- Is it more likely that a guy gets past the 20 or gets tackled inside of the 20 (including penalties)?

- Is it more likely to give up a touchdown or force a turnover?

- Would using the roster spot somewhere else actually add a benefit to the team?

 

I'm not sure on the answers to any of those questions.

 

This team is so thin at receiver, linebacker, safety and DB's its a joke. So yea even one of Nix's typical dumpster players would possibly have more impact

 

Also, the "specialists" onside kick friggin blows.

[thebandit27]

I don't think it's just about the kickoffs, as there are other advantages to keeping Potter on the roster, such as:

 

- Last year, Lindell got hurt covering a kickoff...with Potter on the team, if that happens, you still have your regular kicker

- Potter can kick field goals as well, so if something freaky happens and Lindell gets hurt during a game, we're not without a guy that can drill a 40-yarder if needed

- Suppose someone takes a 15-yard celebration penalty after a key TD; isn't it nice to have a guy that can still kick the ball to the 5 yard line?

- In the winter winds of the Ralph, where Buffalo will play 3 games in December, you need a guy that can kick into the wind; that's Potter

- The less kicking Lindell does during the season, the fresher his leg is come stretch-run time...that's important

 

Just some other thoughts.

Edited September 12, 2012 by thebandit27

[mead107]

We need a win to stop the bickering. 1 more 6th or 7th round guy is not going to change the the outcome. Starting them at the 20 is a much better option.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

We have a field goal kicker that can't reach the endzone, a specialist is mandatory here as we are inlove with Lindell and won't make a change.

[Meark]

well, i have a lot of issues with this post, top to bottom.

 

A lot of teams do have one guy handling both, poorly. i would venture there are very few teams that have a kicker with higher FG and touchback percentages than our guys will average out with. in fact, i bet a lot of teams one guy doing not just one but both those things worse. we have one kicker that can do the job sufficiently, but we opted for a second that will help us do the job exceptionally while hopefully training to take over the role full time.

 

next, if its not about the roster spot, why do you care about the extra body on the roster. if you dont care who replaces him, why do you want someone to replace him so badly.

 

after that, not wanting them to kick touchbacks is generally a poor plan, as has been outlined a dozen times by numerous people in this very thread. stopping them at the 17 or 18 yard line once in awhile is not worth giving up runs past the 20 much more often.

 

 

Really the only argument you have is the roster spot, and for some reason you keep refusing it.

 

Do you have a reading comprehension issue? I said it's not ONLY about a roster spot... and that is certainly not the only argument.

 

You keep saying "sooo many" and "a lot" of teams. Please site examples and stop generalizing.

 

If Lindell can't do the entire job required of an NFL kicker replace him.

 

Lindell can take Brad Smith with him.

 

Wildcat is a joke.

Edited September 12, 2012 by MarkinSanDiego

[NoSaint]

 

 

Do you have a reading comprehension issue? I said it's not ONLY about a roster spot... and that is certainly not the only argument.

 

You keep saying "sooo many" and "a lot" of teams. Please site examples and stop generalizing.

 

If Lindell can't do the entire job required of an NFL kicker replace him.

 

Lindell can take Brad Smith with him.

 

Wildcat is a joke.

 

well, ill start with the fact that i think its absurd that the burden of proof is not on you, as you initiated the entire thread. ill continue with it being nonsense that you have brought brad smith into it.

 

to get to numbers - lindell last year had 12 touchbacks on 43 kicks, which would put him in the lower third of the league (mid 20s, approximately). we have upgraded that to a guy that should be in the upper echelon. Long term, I cant give a firm number as we just dont have a huge sample size, but if he breaks 50% which i think is a reasonable assumption, he would be in the top 10 in touchback percentage. that would put him above 20 other kickers.

 

rian lindell kicked 86.7% last year, granted he never got deep into the bad weather - but most kickers dont deal with that weekly even if they play in december. If he maintained that average the bills wouldve ranked 7th in the league (again, top 10). im just working off a cliffnotes team ranking website, and lindells stat sheet here - so its possible it would vary a little bit based on kickers splitting time, injuries sinking team average (rayner pulled us down to last!) and other such things - heck, even based on whether teams took a few deep shots for the heck of it that were low percentage and lindell wouldnt be asked to. fact is, he is a very reliable kicker. better than average with fg percentage for his career...

 

again, just a cliffnotes example of how carrying 2 kickers can put us top 10 in both categories, leaving many teams weaker, but with the extra roster spot to justify that weakness. does that help?

Edited September 12, 2012 by NoSaint

[Meark]

well, ill start with the fact that i think its absurd that the burden of proof is not on you, as you initiated the entire thread. ill continue with it being nonsense that you have brought brad smith into it.

 

to get to numbers - lindell last year had 12 touchbacks on 43 kicks, which would put him in the lower third of the league (mid 20s, approximately). we have upgraded that to a guy that should be in the upper echelon. Long term, I cant give a firm number but if he breaks 50% which i think is a reasonable assumption, he would be in the top 10 in touchback percentage. that would put him above 20 other kickers.

 

rian lindell kicked 86.7% last year, granted he never got deep into the bad weather - but most kickers dont deal with that weekly even if they play in december. If he maintained that average the bills wouldve ranked 7th in the league (again, top 10). im just working off a cliffnotes team ranking website, and lindells stat sheet here - so its possible it would vary a little bit based on kickers splitting time, injuries sinking team average (rayner pulled us down to last!) and other such things.

 

again, just a cliffnotes example of how carrying 2 kickers can put us top 10 in both categories, leaving many teams weaker, but with the extra roster spot.

 

Someone else brought Brad Smith into the argument earlier.. I was responding..

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.. Oh.. so its not absurd for you to quote generalizations like .. sooo many other teams are doing this.. yet you can't name one.. because it's a total fabrication. Yet it's absurd for me to ask you to prove your point with actual facts or evidence.

[Matt in KC]

Last year in preseason Lindell regularly kicked into the end zone on kickofffs until the third game when he again started placing them at the 0-2 yard line about five yards from the sideline. This is where he was trying to put them, apparently, not that he was unable to kick it farther.

 

What I don't know is if Lindell couldn't kick deep consistently and keep his leg fresh for accurate FGs and if that was a reason he kicked shorter (in which case he really couldn't kick is far enough, at least long term.

 

This year I think it's likely that either Lindell is still not 100% healthy (perhaps he can't tackle?) and/or Potter is being groomed to be our next full-time kicker. I don't mind kicking into the end zone consistently, but don't think it's worth an extra roster spot without extenuating circumstances. I was a bit disappointed in week 1 seeing how many other teams kicked touchbacks without an additional player on their team.

[Orton's Arm]

well, ill start with the fact that i think its absurd that the burden of proof is not on you, as you initiated the entire thread. ill continue with it being nonsense that you have brought brad smith into it.

 

to get to numbers - lindell last year had 12 touchbacks on 43 kicks, which would put him in the lower third of the league (mid 20s, approximately). we have upgraded that to a guy that should be in the upper echelon. Long term, I cant give a firm number as we just dont have a huge sample size, but if he breaks 50% which i think is a reasonable assumption, he would be in the top 10 in touchback percentage. that would put him above 20 other kickers.

 

rian lindell kicked 86.7% last year, granted he never got deep into the bad weather - but most kickers dont deal with that weekly even if they play in december. If he maintained that average the bills wouldve ranked 7th in the league (again, top 10). im just working off a cliffnotes team ranking website, and lindells stat sheet here - so its possible it would vary a little bit based on kickers splitting time, injuries sinking team average (rayner pulled us down to last!) and other such things - heck, even based on whether teams took a few deep shots for the heck of it that were low percentage and lindell wouldnt be asked to. fact is, he is a very reliable kicker. better than average with fg percentage for his career...

 

again, just a cliffnotes example of how carrying 2 kickers can put us top 10 in both categories, leaving many teams weaker, but with the extra roster spot to justify that weakness. does that help?

Thanks for doing the work to back up your points. After reading your post, I feel a lot more comfortable with the decision to keep a kickoff specialist on the roster. Also, as you pointed out earlier, if Lindell goes down with an injury, Potter can take his place. And vice versa.