My take on the Preseason "Game Plan"

[The Big Cat]

I've noted this in several other threads, but nobody seems to acknowledge/respond to it, but I'm using it to formulate the basis for my observations re: the offense in the preseason.

 

Yes, they've looked middling--at best.

 

But, including the detail alluded to above, there are two things that stick out as indicators as to what was going on out there:

 

First: not a single rushing attempt by the first team against WAS.

• Gailey/Fitz were not calling situational plays, they just called the plays they wanted to work on.
  
• One could say: no better way to practice situations than by practicing how you'll respond in real time.
  
• But, this is Fitz's third year in Gailey's offense...he gets it, and Gailey knows it. That's why--
  
• Fitz didn't audible out of anything during preseason. He knows his reads, he knows what he should have called, but doing so would reveal how they might disguise plays, the different plays we'll call from the same formation, so and so on. I think this rationale gives some hints as to what it means to not "show anything in the preseason."
  

 

Which brings me to:

 

Six consecutive incomplete pass attempts to Stevie during the Pittsburgh game.

• It was clear on some of them Fitz/Stevie were not on the same page.
  
• I think it's highly unlikely Fitz would go to the well that many times in a row and come up empty with Stevie during the RS.
  
• But, this was also an opportunity to fail/learn when it didn't count. Now they can talk about what did or didn't happen on those plays.
  
• I do, however, think the play call was run blah blah blah blah, but make sure you target Stevie and Stevie only.
  
• In this sense, they were testing what could happen in a worst-case scenario, we have to get the ball to Stevie type situation.
  

 

My conclusion:

 

This was Bill Walsh scripting the first 25 plays on steroids, except the plays were called with absolutely no regard for what they should expect the opposing defense to do. Both Pittsburgh and Minnesota got very blitz-happy, yet Fitz stood in, took his licks, didn't call for extra protection, etc. There was clearly on desire to win, to counter-attack the defensive scheme, none of that.

 

Where I do have some concern is whether or not Chan will utilize his backfield to the best of its ability. I want to believe he'll run the ball...a lot, but thus far, I see no indication of that. He seems to want to pass to setup the run, whereas I think we're in a much better position to do the opposite.

 

As far as defense goes: anyone with a set of eyeballs could tell we were giving a 75% effort--at most. If these guys can stay healthy, they're going to be a pack of maulers out there.

[Kelly the Dog]

The team was trying out things that they may not even use much at all with the first team in the preseason, and they weren't using things they will use quite a bit. That was another reason we didn't look so sharp. The first team O started out the game with, and played a lot with, two TE against the Redskins. There is probably not going to be a lot of that this year, although they ran pretty good a few plays with Lee Smith in there as the extra blocker.

 

We didn't see the Spiller/Fred-Ex backfield except for 2-3 plays the whole pre-season. That is going to be a major part of our offense, and I'm sure Gailey didn't want to expose it to the Jets.

 

We know we will be able to run the ball, at least as much as we did last year, and we hardly ran at all in pre-season.

 

I'm really not worried at all about the offense, outside of the injury factor on the offensive line. It's encouraging that Wood seems ready to go 100% for the opener. That will help a lot. Pears will be back, although Hairston is a reasonable alternative at RT.

[The Big Cat]

The team was trying out things that they may not even use much at all with the first team in the preseason, and they weren't using things they will use quite a bit. That was another reason we didn't look so sharp. The first team O started out the game with, and played a lot with, two TE against the Redskins. There is probably not going to be a lot of that this year, although they ran pretty good a few plays with Lee Smith in there as the extra blocker.

 

We didn't see the Spiller/Fred-Ex backfield except for 2-3 plays the whole pre-season. That is going to be a major part of our offense, and I'm sure Gailey didn't want to expose it to the Jets.

 

We know we will be able to run the ball, at least as much as we did last year, and we hardly ran at all in pre-season.

 

I'm really not worried at all about the offense, outside of the injury factor on the offensive line. It's encouraging that Wood seems ready to go 100% for the opener. That will help a lot. Pears will be back, although Hairston is a reasonable alternative at RT.

 

You seem optimistic...

 

As I am (shocking, I know )

[Dorkington]

Hopefully you're right.

[The Big Cat]

Hopefully you're right.

 

Is there evidence to suggest otherwise?

[chris heff]

I said basically the same thing, in a different thread yesterday. What offenses do in the preseason has nothing to do with winning games.

[Armchair GM]

If Pre Season meant anything at all, I would say your summation is NEARLY spot on. But seems to me you wasted a bunch of keystrokes. Not baggn' on ya, cuz from what I can tell, you have a good "football sense." Just sayn' that it's nearly impossible to get any read on any team from what happens in this 4 week long case of the squirts.

The only thing I disagree with you on is your assertion that we want to "pass to set up the run." Only because I billieve that everyone knows what we have at RB and all the games were used to work out Fitz's mechanics he's developing under Lee, as well as the need to figure out who the #2WR is gonna be. I came in expecting pass heavy games, as did everyone I'm sure...

[The Big Cat]

If Pre Season meant anything at all, I would say your summation is NEARLY spot on. But seems to me you wasted a bunch of keystrokes. Not baggn' on ya, cuz from what I can tell, you have a good "football sense." Just sayn' that it's nearly impossible to get any read on any team from what happens in this 4 week long case of the squirts.

 

The only thing I disagree with you on is your assertion that we want to "pass to set up the run." Only because I billieve that everyone knows what we have at RB and all the games were used to work out Fitz's mechanics he's developing under Lee, as well as the need to figure out who the #2WR is gonna be. I came in expecting pass heavy games, as did everyone I'm sure...

 

I'm sorry, so you think we will or won't pass to setup the run? I said I'd prefer we did, but don't have confidence we will.

[Juice_32]

We were the number 14 O in the NFL last year. The only way we will finish lower than that this season is if we get hammered by injuries again.

 

This place is hilarious during the preseason. How anyone thinks our O will be worse than last year is beyond me.

 

The Bills are a better team than they were last year, period. If they stay healthy it could be a fun one!

[Rockinon]

I just watched the Pittsburgh game last night and on that scoring drive, Fred was moving the chains and BAM....Nelson catches a long crossing route and nearly gets the TD(Knee down before stretching the ball over the end zone). The previous possession, the Bills were stuffed passing. Then Fred runs nicely and guess what? Those runs set up the pass to Nelson nicely. Two plays later Fred ran it in for the TD. I think we are going to see a lot of running plays this year. I think we are going to see a lot of passing plays this year.

 

Another thing that kind of caught my eye was at one point the Bills ran Fred back to back times to the right even though Pears was out. Also of note, it was a TEs blocking on both occasions the prevented the defense from stringing out the play, allowing Fred to make the edge clean and gain nice yardage. This is not something I saw a lot of last year. I think there were some new wrinkles but I also think many play calls were specifically designed to evaluate talent.

 

In other words Big Cat, I agree.

 

I wasn't even going to watch this game but when my wife pointed out that a Syracuse sports channel had the game on, I wanted to see what all of the doom and gloomers were talking about. I only watched the first half and actually came away feeling pretty confident the team will be ready for the opening of the season. The defense dominated and the offense strung together some nice plays. Then I changed the channel and watched a movie. I didn't need to dwell on the second half because I all ready knew the backups stunk up the rest of the game, and didn't need to see what got Young canned.

[BillnutinHouston]

I was with you totally on your analysis until you said

 

Where I do have some concern is whether or not Chan will utilize his backfield to the best of its ability. I want to believe he'll run the ball...a lot, but thus far, I see no indication of that. He seems to want to pass to setup the run

 

Are you concerned because of what you saw last year, or what you saw in preseason? Hopefully your concern is based on what you saw last year, because I thought the point of your post was that they were not trying to win in preseason, just work on very specific things regardless of the circumstances. If this is your overall point (which I agree with BTW), then it likely explains why the first team O hasn't run much in preseason.

 

Personally, I'm not concerned about any playcalling tendencies shown in preseason. I think it's pointless to try to identify trends in preseason play calling and then think those trends will carry over into the regular season.

[The Big Cat]

I was with you totally on your analysis until you said

 

 

 

Are you concerned because of what you saw last year, or what you saw in preseason? Hopefully your concern is based on what you saw last year, because I thought the point of your post was that they were not trying to win in preseason, just work on very specific things regardless of the circumstances. If this is your overall point (which I agree with BTW), then it likely explains why the first team O hasn't run much in preseason.

 

Personally, I'm not concerned about any playcalling tendencies shown in preseason. I think it's pointless to try to identify trends in preseason play calling and then think those trends will carry over into the regular season.

 

I'm basing it on how often we saw shotgun spread formations last year, and then again in the preseason, leading me to believe it's one our base formations. Obviously, we can run out of those, and we do, but certainly not at a run-heavy ratio.

[RevWarRifleman]

Big Cat, good post. I agree. RWR

[zow2]

Good post but i think you're giving Chan and co. way too much credit for sitting and designing this preseason, disguise, no game planning ploy. Before the Pittsburgh game Fitz said they DID game plan somewhat, at least for the starters anyway. So i agree that the Bills will run much more to set up the pass. No question they won't come out in the regular season gunning 15 straight passes down the field. What mainly concerns me is the Bills #2 and #3 units getting whooped by Minny and Pittsburgh. That just shows we are not this unbelievably deep team. They gotta stay healthy as does every NFL team to compete.

[The Big Cat]

Good post but i think you're giving Chan and co. way too much credit for sitting and designing this preseason, disguise, no game planning ploy. Before the Pittsburgh game Fitz said they DID game plan somewhat, at least for the starters anyway. So i agree that the Bills will run much more to set up the pass. No question they won't come out in the regular season gunning 15 straight passes down the field. What mainly concerns me is the Bills #2 and #3 units getting whooped by Minny and Pittsburgh. That just shows we are not this unbelievably deep team. They gotta stay healthy as does every NFL team to compete.

 

I simply don't believe the scrubs v scrubs outcome has any...ANY relevance to our depth vs. their depth. We'll never trot out that many non-starters to make the prediction valid.

[John from Riverside]

What I found intersting especially in the Pitt game is our running game was really clicking.....yet after that first TD we inexplicably went away from it......my thought on that were "ok...the bills game planned right up until then now they are experimenting"

 

In a real game you dont go away from a running game that is dominating like that especially when you have a punter pinning them like that and a defense just owning up front like that....you just dont.

[Rockinon]

My take is that a lot of the play calling is to test certain individuals, often in spite of knowing the defense may be keying in on the play. A test if you will, to see how players are able to handle themselves. I kind of think that this is exactly what Gailey is looking for. He wants to see performance by beating the guy he is matched up against.