ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Should remember that WR take about 3 years to really develop if they do. See Eric Molds. While there are exceptions to every rule, I think this is generally true. I'm not into fantasy football, but the following article has some pretty interesting tables showing receiver stats for guys drafted from 1998 through 2008 for their first four years in the league (only 3 for the 2008 draftees): http://www.footballdocs.com/WR_three_year_rule.html How much time does it take for a rookie wide receiver to adjust to the NFL?Typically between one to three full NFL seasons with the mean, median, and mode of the data indicating two full NFL seasons. Consequently, entering their third year of NFL play is most likely when a wide receiver will blossom, hence the name of the "Wide Receiver Three Year Rule". To help drive this point home, let's examine the performance of wide receivers taken in the 1998 - 2008 NFL drafts). Under each year, statistics are given in a receiving yards / TDs format. It is important to note that many wide receivers drafted never amount to anything. To help make the tables a little more clear, only wide receivers that either eventually broke out or were selected in the first round of the NFL draft are listed. Breakout seasons are denoted in red text.. Ignore the fantasy football advice and and just look at the data tables - - while we might get lucky and draft a receiver who is an immediate stud, it's more likely that any WR we draft will take a few years to blossom. Just my 2 lira. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Exactly...Stevie's Game is awful good at the NFL level now...Wonder how many yards Floyd would have vs. Revis? Nothing against Floyd...He'll be a different style of NFL WR than Stevie is anyway...But it's going to take a while before Floyd is in Stevie's league...Stevie has figured out how to get open consistently...And that is REAL hard in the NFL... +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I agree with some who say number 1, number 2, etc., doesn't mean much. Stevie fulfills a role, and Floyd would, too. I am in favor of the type of system where the recievers are all capable of getting deep, of going up and getting a jump ball, and of cross routes. That way the defense cannot take away one guy and ruin a gameplan. The Bills have been far too reliant on one reciever for a long, long time now. It hasn't been since Molds and Price that we've had a multie threat WR corps. And that wasn't even all that even. Stevie can do many things on the field, and furthermore, he can beat single coverage, even by the best - that is valuable. Double coverage gives him trouble, as it does most recievers. So, if we can get another reciever to draw coverage, or split coverage, that will allow for them to each get honest shots. Still, though, we want a third reciever to really make defenses truly blind - and if we add Floyd, I think that guy would be Easley. If he stays healthy. Floyd, and a capable LT in the early rounds would really make this offense dangerous. We've got the two running backs... This will be a fun year. People sure are quick to forget about David Nelson and Scott Chandler... What would make Floyd a valuable player on this team would be his physical size to beat press coverage and then take the lid off the defense deep......I had hopes that Easley would be that player but....just like Merriman.....we can no longer rely on thim EASLEY is just as much a ghost as Floyd. They have both played the same amount of NFL regular season games. The Bills have two threats between the hash marks that defenses have to respect today. CHANDLER and Nelson. Floyd would give the Bills a possible second outside threat plus FJax and Slipper coming out of the backfield, it makes for some seriously sick skilled players on oftener. You got a strong core at interior offends line, G to G. The only weak spots are LT and people can debate Fitz all they want. I should have read your post before putting in mine....you pretty much said it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I haven't seen any post say that he's had 3 DUIs. I have seen several say 3 alcohol-related incidents, including a DUI. I just don't see Floyd as that ultra-talented - way-better-than-other-prospects guy that warrants taking any risk related to his off-field problems. Many here obviously disagree. I just worry that if he had those problems in college, might it escalate when he gets a boat-load of money in the NFL. Agree. and you usually end up being who you are. And I have three kids in college and none of them even drink so the joker who said EVERYBODY does it in college is just being an apologist for Floyd/Society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 (edited) While there are exceptions to every rule, I think this is generally true. I'm not into fantasy football, but the following article has some pretty interesting tables showing receiver stats for guys drafted from 1998 through 2008 for their first four years in the league (only 3 for the 2008 draftees): http://www.footballdocs.com/WR_three_year_rule.html Ignore the fantasy football advice and and just look at the data tables - - while we might get lucky and draft a receiver who is an immediate stud, it's more likely that any WR we draft will take a few years to blossom. Just my 2 lira. Demarius Thomas will likely "break out" in 2012. YEAR one injury year two Tebow year three Manning. Does that count too? The Bills offense is primmed for another outside threat. Edited March 25, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Should remember that WR take about 3 years to really develop if they do. See Eric Molds. Good thing no one explained that to AJ Green and Julio Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I think Floyd could have a better NFL career than Blackmon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Good thing no one explained that to AJ Green and Julio Jones. Notice the years that were picked. Its a whole new NFL. ROOKIES WRs can contribute year 1 on these pass happy spread offenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornellBillsFan Posted March 25, 2012 Author Share Posted March 25, 2012 Agree. and you usually end up being who you are. And I have three kids in college and none of them even drink so the joker who said EVERYBODY does it in college is just being an apologist for Floyd/Society. Well, that's nice that you are a family dull of little angels. And IF your kids don't party at all in college they are the rare exception, for sure. Let's see if he can "own" Revis like Stevie does. Then we can talk the #1/#2 stuff. Some of you go waaay overboard with this "Stevie owns Revis" thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gumby Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 As I said in other threads I'm not a fan of drafting WRs in the 1st round. I'd be happy with the Bills going with LT Martin in the 1st. Then maybe getting the WR in the 2nd. With a little bit of luck Randle will still be there if not I'd take a look at Sanu, although Sanu might be a slight reach at the top of the 2nd round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpperDeck Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Should remember that WR take about 3 years to really develop if they do. See Eric Molds. While I agree it generally takes them 3 years to hit their stride, what does this have to do with anything? If this deters you from picking a receiver then you will never pick a receiver other than a 1st round stud. You can't think only in the short term and especially for a young Bills team. We are just starting to be good. In 3 years from now we might be a powerhouse with a star WR. If he's good right away even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 While I agree it generally takes them 3 years to hit their stride, what does this have to do with anything? If this deters you from picking a receiver then you will never pick a receiver other than a 1st round stud. You can't think only in the short term and especially for a young Bills team. We are just starting to be good. In 3 years from now we might be a powerhouse with a star WR. If he's good right away even better. Moulds didn't play much in his first two years because Levy had a dumb rule about playing rookies over veterans. Whenever Moulds came in he looked the part. Other coaches would have had Moulds in there a lot more in his first two years and probably in his first year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I agree but the ND campus is different from Ohio St. or Alabama. You don't get a pass just because you're on a football scholarship. There are only 12,000 students. Maybe a security guard had it out for him..its a small.campus mostly everyone knows mostly who/what everyone is doing. Just ask this guy. Still, at worst you'd think a guy with that much on the line would catch on quicker. I'm not trying to pile on him by any means - but I doubt many in his graduating class have the "resume" he does when it comes to booze/partying. Doesn't mean he will be even a tiny bit of trouble at the next level but it's definitely something to heavily investigate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26TrapDraw Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 If the Bills end up taking Michael Floyd it won't be all that long before we are talking about Stevie being a nice #2 to compliment Floyd. Floyd is more talented by a pretty good margiin and an all around physical beast at the WR spot. If the Bills take him everyone will be very pleased after watching him play a few games in a Bills uniform. And the cold won't be a problem either, kid grew up in freakin' Minnesota. There's no guarantee Floyd will be anything in the NFL. Stevie has done it on the grand stage. We take Floyd and he puts up 70 or 80 catches for a 1000 yds...maybe then He can be the number 1...thats a big if though my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I don't have a position on Floyd at this moment although all Bills fans will have to pick a side in this debate eventually. I thought I read somewhere that he had a "squeaky clean" senior year. If all his transgressions happened over a year ago, does that not forgive quite a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 a lot of our discussions lately have been about this draft, of course. and fair amount of folks end on either side. whether we are talking about lt or wr or an exciting guard even at our first pick. this year is very challenging for our front office and really tough on us as fans. tempering emotion and trying to be logical. predicting how any of these players after 7-8 will develop into a solid or impact player is above me. But what helps me get more info on these potential Bills draftees is you guys. sure i turn on the BS filter now and again but thats cool. I am going to have to trust the FO again to get er done even though i have my druthers. One thing for sure is will be glued to this draft till the last round, should be fun eric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 First the Bills have to draft him. Then he has to demonstrate he can play well in OTAs and Pre Season then he has to play well in the NFL then you can debate who is #1 and who is #2. If Miami takes Floyd before the Bills do, then you will all be hoping he gets too crazy in the Miami night life and is a bust. So lets wait until May. Not to mention "#1" and "#2" is more fan speak then NFL speak. Then we can swoop in and grab Tannehill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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