PromoTheRobot Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2012/01/17/fitzs-qbr-numbers/ 32 teams in the NFL... He came in at 18th... That's below half the league so pretty much he failed... Failed at what? According to your logic, Tom Brady barely made the grade at #14 And Fitz graded better than 2 playoff QBs. FYI, in week #8 Fitz was ranked 4th. PTR Edited January 17, 2012 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Failed at what? According to your logic, Tom Brady barely made the grade at #14 And Fitz graded better than 2 playoff QBs. FYI, in week #8 Fitz was ranked 4th. PTR The links you provided are specific to particular weeks. Yes, Tom Brady had the 14th best performance of week 17--at least if QBR is used as the measuring tool. The link the OP cited stated that Fitz had the 18th best QBR for the whole year, not just one particular week. A comparison of QBs' numbers over the course of a year--which is what the OP has linked to--is much more meaningful than making comparisons between specific, cherry picked weeks of the season (such as week 17 or week 8). Your criticism of the original poster's logic is misplaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdub Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) Failed at what? According to your logic, Tom Brady barely made the grade at #14 And Fitz graded better than 2 playoff QBs. FYI, in week #8 Fitz was ranked 4th. PTR They're referring to the season QBR, not individual weeks: 2011 Regular Season QBR Brady comes in at #3 with a QBR of 74.2 Edited January 17, 2012 by kdub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) The links you provided are specific to particular weeks. Yes, Tom Brady had the 14th best performance of week 17--at least if QBR is used as the measuring tool. The link the OP cited stated that Fitz had the 18th best QBR for the whole year, not just one particular week. A comparison of QBs' numbers over the course of a year--which is what the OP has linked to--is much more meaningful than making comparisons between specific, cherry picked weeks of the season (such as week 17 or week 8). Your criticism of the original poster's logic is misplaced. I do apologize for not quoting the correct stat chart. But as far as the original poster's assertion that coming in ranked #18 in the NFL is somehow a failure is not exactly truth telling, now is it? Fitz still had a better year than 3 playoff QBs (Dalton, Smith, Tebow), and he was better than Sanchez, Kolb, Gabbert, Freeman, Ponder and Bradford...all QBs touted to be better than Fitz. Being #18 isn't pro bowl level but it isn't UFL level either. PTR Edited January 17, 2012 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know from our years of posting that you are smart enough to figure it out. His league leading RB got injured. His squad leader Center got injured. Then the BACKUP Center got injured. His LT got injured. His WR unit was decimated with injuries. You say it yourself, "The guy will need some solid help around him". All QBs do. The more help, the better the QB can play. I understand a falling off of performance level with key players out, but Fitzpatrick's drop was too substantial for it not to also be that he himself was playing badly. I think he raised the bar so high early in the season that the big drop means this season for him was maybe not an F, but a solid C-. However, you could make an argument that a C- equals F for a starting QB. I hope that he can return to the form we saw from early in the season. I think it's not far fetched that he could be consistently good throughout a whole entire season. I know I'll be rooting for him! It was easy to rag on a guy like Edwards because he never showed us any passion or performance. Fitzpatrick's done both so the fans will have his back and I think he'll bust his butt this offseason to make sure he'll play at a consistently high level this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I do apologize for not quoting the correct stat chart. But as far as the original poster's assertion that coming in ranked #18 in the NFL is somehow a failure is not exactly truth telling, now is it? Fitz still had a better year than 3 playoff QBs (Dalton, Smith, Tebow), and he was better than Sanchez, Kolb, Gabbert, Freeman, Ponder and Bradford...all QBs touted to be better than Fitz. Being #18 isn't pro bowl level but it isn't UFL level either. PTR Your post sounds reasonable enough. The one area which you and I may see differently is in the use of words like "success" and "failure." Maybe the OP's definition of a successful QB is a guy at or near franchise level. By that definition Fitz is a failure. Perhaps other people would define a success at QB as a guy who can hold his own against other middle-of-the-road QBs. By that second definition, Fitz is a success. I think the main reason you and the OP disagree on whether Fitz is a failure is because the two of you haven't agreed on a definition of failure or success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Fitz certainly has a ton of limitations. He thinks he's Brett Farve but unfortunately, he doesn't have the arm of Farve. But is there honestly a group of receivers in the NFL with less pedigree than the Bills? Our top guy is a 7th rounder, who did nothing before Fitz. The rest of our receivers weren't even drafted. Our tight end was on 2 teams prior to the Bills and had one catch. This year, he had a career year. Fitz isn't Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc. But let's not act like he is throwing to studs. He certainly deserves next year and an upgrade in talent to throw to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Your post sounds reasonable enough. The one area which you and I may see differently is in the use of words like "success" and "failure." Maybe the OP's definition of a successful QB is a guy at or near franchise level. By that definition Fitz is a failure. Perhaps other people would define a success at QB as a guy who can hold his own against other middle-of-the-road QBs. By that second definition, Fitz is a success. I think the main reason you and the OP disagree on whether Fitz is a failure is because the two of you haven't agreed on a definition of failure or success. Or maybe Fitz is just average? Not great but not bad either? Since when did average become "suck"? PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuSeYiN1978 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Really? Why exactly is that? Be specific if possible...I'm just curious... Because you look at the Top 10 and it seems just about right...Maybe Romo is a bit high at #5...But Rodgers, Brees and Brady at 1, 2, and 3 certainly is correct... Maybe the NFL did not need a new way to rate QB's...But in this case Fitz actually benefited...The old QB Rating had him 22nd...Right behind Tavaris Jackson...So... There's always going to be different ways to look at QB play...I think this Total QBR worked fairly well because Fitz landed pretty much exactly where he is...Middle of the League... Preach on.... Very true... His top 3 performanes as far as QBR goes was against KC, NE at home and the washed up Redskins... The links you provided are specific to particular weeks. Yes, Tom Brady had the 14th best performance of week 17--at least if QBR is used as the measuring tool. The link the OP cited stated that Fitz had the 18th best QBR for the whole year, not just one particular week. A comparison of QBs' numbers over the course of a year--which is what the OP has linked to--is much more meaningful than making comparisons between specific, cherry picked weeks of the season (such as week 17 or week 8). Your criticism of the original poster's logic is misplaced. Couldn't have said it any better... I do apologize for not quoting the correct stat chart. But as far as the original poster's assertion that coming in ranked #18 in the NFL is somehow a failure is not exactly truth telling, now is it? Fitz still had a better year than 3 playoff QBs (Dalton, Smith, Tebow), and he was better than Sanchez, Kolb, Gabbert, Freeman, Ponder and Bradford...all QBs touted to be better than Fitz. Being #18 isn't pro bowl level but it isn't UFL level either. PTR I never said Fitz wad ufl level... I really do like the guy... I liked him by default at first cuz I had to but I really grew to like him but he made enough plays this year to have me question his whole "gun slinging" arm... Tow may tow tah mah tow, they say gun slinger I say stupid decision... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Honestly, I couldn't care less what Ryan Fitzpatrick's final stats say - good or positive. His play on the field spoke for itself. When the season started, the Bills had developed a system perfectly suited to his strengths (reading a defense before the snap and then making a quick throw). As the season progressed (starting about Week 4 with the Bengals), teams began to catch on to the Bills attack. They started playing closer to the line of scrimmage and taking away the short stuff. They started to do more things to confuse him after the ball was snapped. Fitzpatrick's weaknesses were exposed. He has no accuracy on the deep ball. He makes very poor decisions when the defense takes away his initial reads. Blame his play on injuries all you want. Those with an eye for football realize that Fitzpatrick's play was steadily getting worse long before his teammates started dropping off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Honestly, I couldn't care less what Ryan Fitzpatrick's final stats say - good or positive. His play on the field spoke for itself. When the season started, the Bills had developed a system perfectly suited to his strengths (reading a defense before the snap and then making a quick throw). As the season progressed (starting about Week 4 with the Bengals), teams began to catch on to the Bills attack. They started playing closer to the line of scrimmage and taking away the short stuff. They started to do more things to confuse him after the ball was snapped. Fitzpatrick's weaknesses were exposed. He has no accuracy on the deep ball. He makes very poor decisions when the defense takes away his initial reads. Blame his play on injuries all you want. Those with an eye for football realize that Fitzpatrick's play was steadily getting worse long before his teammates started dropping off. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjbills69 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Honestly, I couldn't care less what Ryan Fitzpatrick's final stats say - good or positive. His play on the field spoke for itself. When the season started, the Bills had developed a system perfectly suited to his strengths (reading a defense before the snap and then making a quick throw). As the season progressed (starting about Week 4 with the Bengals), teams began to catch on to the Bills attack. They started playing closer to the line of scrimmage and taking away the short stuff. They started to do more things to confuse him after the ball was snapped. Fitzpatrick's weaknesses were exposed. He has no accuracy on the deep ball. He makes very poor decisions when the defense takes away his initial reads. Blame his play on injuries all you want. Those with an eye for football realize that Fitzpatrick's play was steadily getting worse long before his teammates started dropping off. Those with an eye for football would realize that when you are 21 points down and the opposing defense is chewing up your line and your receivers cant do anything to get open and have hands like rocks, and your running game is weakened with the loss of Freddie your QB is going to suffer for it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldNMBillsFan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think it is too early to judge his future performance. The man has never gone through training camp as the #1 QB. I think he will improve next year. I do agree his deep ball sucks. He under throws about 90% of the time. I do not recall him hitting a receiver in stride that led to a long TD pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Or maybe Fitz is just average? Not great but not bad either? Since when did average become "suck"? PTR I agree that Fitz is about average. The question is: how do we define success? Is the ultimate goal to build a Super Bowl winner? If so, what is the likelihood of Nix accomplishing that with Fitz as his starting QB? While we can't calculate the exact odds, we can at least come up with a rough approximation. Of the last ten Super Bowl winners, nine have had franchise QBs. There are typically about eight franchise QBs in the league at any one time, give or take. Therefore, if you have a franchise QB, your odds of winning the Super Bowl in any particular year are: 90% x (1/8) = 11%. The reason for this is because 90% of the Super Bowl wins are being divvied up among the eight teams with franchise QBs. If you don't have a franchise QB, your odds of winning the Super Bowl are 10% x (1/24) = 0.4% in any particular year. This is because the 24 teams without franchise QBs are divvying up the remaining 10% of Super Bowl wins. A team with a franchise QB should expect to win about one Super Bowl every nine years. A team without a franchise QB should expect to win a Super Bowl about once every 250 years. If the goal is to win a Super Bowl, then having Fitz as the starting QB virtually guarantees failure to achieve that goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 (edited) I know from our years of posting that you are smart enough to figure it out. His league leading RB got injured. His squad leader Center got injured. Then the BACKUP Center got injured. His LT got injured. His WR unit was decimated with injuries. You say it yourself, "The guy will need some solid help around him". All QBs do. The more help, the better the QB can play. And his backup LT was injured the same game the starter was. And even the #1 WR when on the field was playing hurt with a bad groin. Fitz clearly does have accuracy issues - you can't blame the multiple times he missed a wide open SJ deep on anything but Fitz. But it's also fair to say there were plenty of other problems too. Nix already spelled it out - he's going to get a second top WR, depth at OT, and aggressively address the pass rush all THIS OFFSEASON. Nix and Gailey have also spelled out that they are sticking with Fitz for 2012. If Nix does all that, and they have a little better luck with injuries, it will be on Fitz to lead them to the playoffs IN 2012. I don't think anyone at OBD disagrees with that, nor should anyone at TBD. Edited January 18, 2012 by BobChalmers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Apoligies if this has already been posted, but didn't like 17 of Fitz's picks come when the team was down by 10 or more points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Blame his play on injuries all you want. Those with an eye for football realize that Fitzpatrick's play was steadily getting worse long before his teammates started dropping off. That would be a great argument if it was actually true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate Angel Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 http://blogs.buffalo...zs-qbr-numbers/ 32 teams in the NFL... He came in at 18th... That's below half the league so pretty much he failed... Sounds about right... He is an average QB there are 32 teams in the NFL, average would be around 16, 18 is around 16. Don't know how thats failing though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 From Buffalorumblings But herein lies the complexity of statistical analysis. Many of Fitzpatrick's interceptions were thrown in the second half of blowout losses: four interceptions against New England in the season finale, two in a 37-10 drubbing by San Diego, two more in a 35-8 beatdown in Miami, two against the New York Jets in a game that was 27-3 in the fourth quarter, and three in a laugher against Dallas. That's 13 in just five games. While these games should not be excluded in the season evaluation, it shows he is willing to try and make things happen when the Bills are down. I shouldn't need to remind you of the Captain Checkdown era, but it seems appropriate to mention. Fitzpatrick threw the ball 569 times. In doing so, he became just the second quarterback in team history with more than 508 passing attempts in one year. Drew Bledsoe's team record of 610 passes set in 2002 looks pretty safe for the time being. Only five quarterbacks threw more passes than Fitzpatrick in 2011, and four of them were Pro Bowlers. (Matthew Stafford, who led the league with 663 passes, was not selected - but would likely make the team if Eli Manning's Giants reach the Super Bowl.) That begins to explain the high interception number, too. Similarly, Fitzpatrick finished sixth in number of completions, with 353. The Bills' passing attack wasn't just high-quantity - it also had some quality. Fitzpatrick completed 62 percent of his passes to put him ninth in the NFL, and passed for 3,832 yards to come in 11th. He fell just 12 yards short of second in team behind Jim Kelly's 3,844 passing yards in 1991. (First is Bledsoe's monster 4,359-yard 2002 season.) http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2012/1/18/2715760/ryan-fitzpatrick-by-the-numbers-2011#storyjump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 (edited) I agree that Fitz is about average. The question is: how do we define success? Is the ultimate goal to build a Super Bowl winner? If so, what is the likelihood of Nix accomplishing that with Fitz as his starting QB? While we can't calculate the exact odds, we can at least come up with a rough approximation. Of the last ten Super Bowl winners, nine have had franchise QBs. There are typically about eight franchise QBs in the league at any one time, give or take. Therefore, if you have a franchise QB, your odds of winning the Super Bowl in any particular year are: 90% x (1/8) = 11%. The reason for this is because 90% of the Super Bowl wins are being divvied up among the eight teams with franchise QBs. If you don't have a franchise QB, your odds of winning the Super Bowl are 10% x (1/24) = 0.4% in any particular year. This is because the 24 teams without franchise QBs are divvying up the remaining 10% of Super Bowl wins. A team with a franchise QB should expect to win about one Super Bowl every nine years. A team without a franchise QB should expect to win a Super Bowl about once every 250 years. If the goal is to win a Super Bowl, then having Fitz as the starting QB virtually guarantees failure to achieve that goal. Well if your yardstick for success is winning the Super Bowl then 31 teams are failures every season. While it feels good to take such a principled stand, it isn't a realistic way to run a franchise. Why? Because franchise QBs can't be acquired at will. Just because you draft a QB high guarantees nothing. Most of the so-called franchise QBs coming out college never live up to their billing. So having an average QB is not a bad thing. It allows you to concentrate on developing other positions. Then you can take a shot at a QB you believe is franchise level and surround him with more talent. How is Sam Bradford doing in St.L? He's getting killed because he's got nothing to work with. Right now the Bills D is a disaster. If we don't fix it, we'll have to score 50 points a game just to have a chance to win. So I'm fine with Fitz for now. Fix the D and wait to make a deal on a QB or draft someone who can learn under Fitz for a season or two. PTR Edited January 18, 2012 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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