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First Round: Pass rusher


symbiant

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Personally, I think there is little doubt that the Bills want to select a passrusher at #10 overall, unless some elite talent falls.

 

Thoughts on the following players?

 

Quinton Coples, DE, N. Carolina

Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Melvin Ingram, DE, S. Carolina

Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois

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I want the pass rusher who is big and physical and has had more than one season of production...period...we NEED to hit on this pass rusher, and I agree that unless we sign someone via free agency (ala Robert Mathis - aint happenin though) we need to address pass rush with the first pick, and probably even if we do sign pass rusher in free agency

 

other POTENTIAL positions: WR and CB (and honestly we need help at both of those spots too)

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But this is where you get in trouble. you can't go into the 1st and just draft for need. That's how you end up with JP Losman, James Hardy, and Aaron Maybin.

 

If the best player (or close to the best) on the board is a pass rusher, boom, problem solved. But if the pass rushers don't merit that draft spot, give me the best receiver or another position that fits that draft selection.

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I want the pass rusher who is big and physical and has had more than one season of production...period...we NEED to hit on this pass rusher, and I agree that unless we sign someone via free agency (ala Robert Mathis - aint happenin though) we need to address pass rush with the first pick, and probably even if we do sign pass rusher in free agency

 

other POTENTIAL positions: WR and CB (and honestly we need help at both of those spots too)

 

Unless Blackmon or Jeffrey fall, I don't think WR will happen in round 1.

I think that we think our corners are fine, we just need a passrush.

We'll probably take another corner late.

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But this is where you get in trouble. you can't go into the 1st and just draft for need. That's how you end up with JP Losman, James Hardy, and Aaron Maybin.

 

If the best player (or close to the best) on the board is a pass rusher, boom, problem solved. But if the pass rushers don't merit that draft spot, give me the best receiver or another position that fits that draft selection.

 

Exactly.

 

I am in agreement that a 4-3 DE is very likely our top need, and it is also very common for players like that to be the top value at #10. But when it comes time to pick, if the top guy by a clear margin plays another position (except for maybe RB), take that guy. He is going to be a part of our team for five or more years, so picking the top need over the top talent is a waste and leads us to gradually be a less talented roster than taking the best player available.

 

In the event that we can't get a pass rusher at #10 that is reasonably the best player (and in the learn from Aaron Maybin, both reasonably sized and a multi-year performer), then we can certainly pick one up in rounds 2 or 3 or free agency at a lower skill level, but at less of a BPA-philosophy compromise.

 

I expect we will have a close to BPA pass rusher available at that slot, and just hope when it happens we pick the Orakpo and not the Maybin.

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I've decided that, as much as I loved watching Blackmon play, the Bills would be even more insane if they continued to ignore the defense. Unless they plug the biggest hole in the boat, what's the point?

 

Defensive front 7 or OT. Anything else is a great indication of the Bills continued and future irrelevance in the NFL.

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so JPS it's first round or bust for plugging the hole? They don't have other picks? Good teams find starters in rounds 2-7. If the bills don't find players in the latter rounds it really doesn't matter who they pick in the first, there is no p. manning on this team.

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I've decided that, as much as I loved watching Blackmon play, the Bills would be even more insane if they continued to ignore the defense. Unless they plug the biggest hole in the boat, what's the point?

 

Defensive front 7 or OT. Anything else is a great indication of the Bills continued and future irrelevance in the NFL.

 

If you pick an inferior player at #10 because of need and fit (see Whitner over Ngata), you are dooming yourself to future irrelevance.

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Personally, I think there is little doubt that the Bills want to select a passrusher at #10 overall, unless some elite talent falls.

 

Thoughts on the following players?

 

Quinton Coples, DE, N. Carolina

Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Melvin Ingram, DE, S. Carolina

Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois

Quinton Coples 6,6 285 4.7 has the triangle numbers and will probably have a great combine but his effort looked inconsistent this year.

 

Melvin Ingram is someone I knew nothing about until a couple of days ago but from what I've seen on youtube (yeah I know) I love the guy - great plays, great interviews. At 6,2 277 he's not a prototype DE and I don't know what type of 40 he runs or his VJ but he certainly looks like he plays fast, has good hands, is agile and well coordinated so while he may be a reach at #10 Ingram is the guy I like best right now if the Bills go 4-3.

 

Courtney Upshaw is probably the safest pick if the Bills are going to play primarily the 3-4.

 

Branch and Mercilus are players I wouldn't look at in the first round

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It should be BPA, at team needs. That is how a team grades players, it is how BN has said in the past that it works for the Bills.It is still to early to pick out our pick in the draft IMO, I think it all depends on what all happens in the off season before the draft. I also think the Bills need more than one pass rusher, I hope they look at every option available, draft FA. CFL everything. They should also do this at LT,CB and TE. Those positions seem to be harder to find real talent at than WR to me. I also think they will draft a back up QB at some point, to develop (sort of like Levi Brown).

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so JPS it's first round or bust for plugging the hole? They don't have other picks? Good teams find starters in rounds 2-7. If the bills don't find players in the latter rounds it really doesn't matter who they pick in the first, there is no p. manning on this team.

I hear you, but don't your probability of a successful pick decreases with each round? We can't miss on defensive help.

 

If you pick an inferior player at #10 because of need and fit (see Whitner over Ngata), you are dooming yourself to future irrelevance.

At #10, the difference in grade shouldn't be that much.....and their need is urgent. The Bills can't afford a skill player. Period.

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Melvin Ingram is someone I knew nothing about until a couple of days ago but from what I've seen on youtube (yeah I know) I love the guy - great plays, great interviews. At 6,2 277 he's not a prototype DE and I don't know what type of 40 he runs or his VJ but he certainly looks like he plays fast, has good hands, is agile and well coordinated so while he may be a reach at #10 Ingram is the guy I like best right now if the Bills go 4-3.

I think his lack of height hurts him if he is expected to play 43 DE, I actually think he fits best as a 34 OLB. He makes alot of plays downfield and seemingly is able to play in coverage.

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But this is where you get in trouble. you can't go into the 1st and just draft for need. That's how you end up with JP Losman, James Hardy, and Aaron Maybin.

 

If the best player (or close to the best) on the board is a pass rusher, boom, problem solved. But if the pass rushers don't merit that draft spot, give me the best receiver or another position that fits that draft selection.

This thinking is flawed.

 

The problem with those players is that they were NOT the best players available. If we had a decent scouting department, those players would not have been on our boards.

 

The problem is player evaluation. If you have good evaluation, then wherever you pick you will get a good player. If you decide to take the best (insert position here) at your spot, then you will choose a good player at that position.

 

For example, was Maybin the best DE/OLB/Pass-rusher on the board when he was chosen, instead of Orakpo?

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Quinton Coples 6,6 285 4.7 has the triangle numbers and will probably have a great combine but his effort looked inconsistent this year.

 

Melvin Ingram is someone I knew nothing about until a couple of days ago but from what I've seen on youtube (yeah I know) I love the guy - great plays, great interviews. At 6,2 277 he's not a prototype DE and I don't know what type of 40 he runs or his VJ but he certainly looks like he plays fast, has good hands, is agile and well coordinated so while he may be a reach at #10 Ingram is the guy I like best right now if the Bills go 4-3.

 

Courtney Upshaw is probably the safest pick if the Bills are going to play primarily the 3-4.

 

Branch and Mercilus are players I wouldn't look at in the first round

 

Whitney Mercilus IS A BEAST! Look at his numbers and tell me he doesn't belong in the 1st Rd. He leads the nation in sacks AND TFL. Better yet look at him dominate Ohio State LT (and possible 1st rounder) Adams.....FF, 1.5 sacks and constant pressure.

I like Upshaw a LOT and can't wait to see him fully rested on Monday night! He's a terror and a true 3-4 fit for us......no brainer!

Edited by r00tabaga
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Whitney Mercilus IS A BEAST! Look at his numbers and tell me he doesn't belong in the 1st Rd. He leads the nation in sacks AND TFL. Better yet look at him dominate Ohio State LT (and possible 1st rounder) Adams.....FF, 1.5 sacks and constant pressure.

I like Upshaw a LOT and can't wait to see him fully rested on Monday night! He's a terror and a true 3-4 fit for us......no brainer!

 

Chances are we will be running 4/3, that is just one reason why this discussion is happening too early.

 

Over/under on how many of these threads before the draft, I'd say about 60

(anyone want to keep tabs?)

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Chances are we will be running 4/3, that is just one reason why this discussion is happening too early.

 

Over/under on how many of these threads before the draft, I'd say about 60

(anyone want to keep tabs?)

 

Chances are we will continue running the hybrid still. We don't have the LB's to run a straight 4-3 and Kelsay is our only true DE in a 4-3. Yes, Wannstache's expertise is w/the 4-3 but we are already invested in the 3-4. There are some studs in this draft in our current alignment! Just my $.02

Edited by r00tabaga
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I think his lack of height hurts him if he is expected to play 43 DE, I actually think he fits best as a 34 OLB. He makes alot of plays downfield and seemingly is able to play in coverage.

I agree but being a little short isn't without precedent as Dwight Freeney, Cullen Jenkins and Elvis Dumervil would tell you- as for playing 34OLB I think he could but overall I'd rather that he mostly played up with his hand on the ground and occasionally drop back into coverage than the other way around.

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