FrankReichComeback Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 On WGR Jerry Sullivan spoke of the term "regressing to the mean." Basically it's a math term and what it means is that that if there is one extreme measurement, the second time the measurement would be closer to the average (mean). This is definitely the case with Fitz. In the past 7 week losing skid, our "franchise" QB has looked like the same backup that's been throwing sloppy and inaccurate passes over the past three years. He has looked good at times but his play would indicate that he is a mediocre QB. Sure, he played well for a few games but as the "regression" states, he eventually regressed back to his average self. What this means for us Bills fans? Don't expect to see the Fitzpatrick that out-dueled Tom Brady earlier this season next year -- expect more of the same. A weak armed, inaccurate QB who likely won't be able to win much more than 8 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 On WGR Jerry Sullivan spoke of the term "regressing to the mean." Basically it's a math term and what it means is that that if there is one extreme measurement, the second time the measurement would be closer to the average (mean). This is definitely the case with Fitz. In the past 7 week losing skid, our "franchise" QB has looked like the same backup that's been throwing sloppy and inaccurate passes over the past three years. He has looked good at times but his play would indicate that he is a mediocre QB. Sure, he played well for a few games but as the "regression" states, he eventually regressed back to his average self. What this means for us Bills fans? Don't expect to see the Fitzpatrick that out-dueled Tom Brady earlier this season next year -- expect more of the same. A weak armed, inaccurate QB who likely won't be able to win much more than 8 games. Hate to say it YOU ARE DEAD ON SIR ......Too bad RW can't see whats going on and loves the guy....I love him 2...but as a backup....Top tier backup qb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 On WGR Jerry Sullivan spoke of the term "regressing to the mean." Basically it's a math term and what it means is that that if there is one extreme measurement, the second time the measurement would be closer to the average (mean). This is definitely the case with Fitz. In the past 7 week losing skid, our "franchise" QB has looked like the same backup that's been throwing sloppy and inaccurate passes over the past three years. He has looked good at times but his play would indicate that he is a mediocre QB. Sure, he played well for a few games but as the "regression" states, he eventually regressed back to his average self. What this means for us Bills fans? Don't expect to see the Fitzpatrick that out-dueled Tom Brady earlier this season next year -- expect more of the same. A weak armed, inaccurate QB who likely won't be able to win much more than 8 games. Soooo, you're saying that there's still a chance he'll win more than 8 games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 On WGR Jerry Sullivan spoke of the term "regressing to the mean." Basically it's a math term and what it means is that that if there is one extreme measurement, the second time the measurement would be closer to the average (mean). This is definitely the case with Fitz. In the past 7 week losing skid, our "franchise" QB has looked like the same backup that's been throwing sloppy and inaccurate passes over the past three years. He has looked good at times but his play would indicate that he is a mediocre QB. Sure, he played well for a few games but as the "regression" states, he eventually regressed back to his average self. What this means for us Bills fans? Don't expect to see the Fitzpatrick that out-dueled Tom Brady earlier this season next year -- expect more of the same. A weak armed, inaccurate QB who likely won't be able to win much more than 8 games. I think we can win games with Fitz, but there has to be a better team around him as a whole to get to that point. Look at Alex Smith in San Fran. Is he really better than Fitz? I don't think so, jmo. He has a good defense that gets him the ball back and makes stops. Earlier in the year we were fairing better on defense and the offense was rolling. Now the defense can't get off the field. It's putrid. I've said before that I do not see Fitz as a franchise QB. He's makes inaccurate throws for various reasons, gets nervous in the pocket at times for no reason, is wildly inconsistent on deep passes, and his arm strength is average at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Tom beat me to it. Cue Edwards' Arm in 5,4,3,2,1,.... GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrankReichComeback Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Soooo, you're saying that there's still a chance he'll win more than 8 games? 8 games with a very very very strong defense. Simple math tells you that well.....we have a very mediocre QB. His effectiveness is extremely limited. These are his number this year so far in 14 games: CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD LNG INT FUM RAT 2011 Regular Season 309 496 3,329 62.3 6.71 22 60 19 2 80.8 Now these were his 2010 numbers in 13 games. Despite his hot start statistically, he regressed. His numbers are almost identical: CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD LNG INT FUM RAT 2010 Regular Season 255 441 57.8 3,000 6.80 23 65 15 4 81.8 Match these up against his career numbers. His 2011 season echoes his career performance. CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD LNG INT FUM RAT Career 988 1,671 59.1 10,433 6.24 66 98 61 15 75.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direhard Fan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 We must build a defense. It all starts there. We need to have the offense on the field more. He can do the job with a "team" behind him. 15 on IR. 10 starters out. What do you want from one player when the "team" is half gone. Yup-- just looking forward to next year. Just like I have for the past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drhockey Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I say why bother even caring about this stuff any more, at least not for this week. Anything Bills related at this point will just make our heads explode. I don't even want to get into the sabres on top of all of this garbage. What a mess - goodbye 2011. Instead, we should just enjoy classic Xmas memories and movies, like Christmas Vacation. Cousin Eddie delivered several beauties like these... "They had to replace my metal plate with a plastic one. Every time Catherine revved up the microwave, I'd piss my pants and forget who I was for about half an hour or so. I don't know if I oughta go sailing down that hill with nothing between the ground and my brain but a piece of government plastic." Pure awesomeness!! Merry Xmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 who is he Dennis Miller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Let me take a post I made from another thread and interject it here.... The point was RW is stating the team needs runners and WR's and yet he dumped the ones he had, who just happen to be first round draft picks and are STILL top talent. You don't think the Seahawks are loving it that they got an ex- #1 pick who has 1000 + yards rushing ***and 11 TD, the #8 RB in the league for a lousy 4th rounder? The man reason why Lee Evans didn't have great stats the last few years is because Fitz hasn't been able to get him the ball very often, the Bills have had no deep passing game simply because the QB doesn't have the time in the pocket to throw 5-7 step drop back passes. So the morons that run this team decided to get rid of Evans (a #1 pick for a 4th) and offer no adequate replacement, so now the short passing game won't work because the team has no viable deep threat to stop opposing defenses from jamming the LoS. But keep blaming the QB who has the guts to step out on that field knowing he has almost no chance of winning a game... unbelievable bad defense.... no running game because the HC doesn't want to hurt his frail RB...no deep threat, so the underneath stuff doesn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miserable_fan Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Mean would suggest that Fitz is an average qb right now. He's nothing short of terrible right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Mean would suggest that Fitz is an average qb right now. He's nothing short of terrible right now No, it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It's more like many of the mean are aggressing to Ryan Fitzpatrick. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Tom beat me to it. Cue Edwards' Arm in 5,4,3,2,1,.... GO BILLS!!! Yup. Here I am. I don't have a lot to add to the OP's post. I think most fans recognize that Fitz is a mediocre QB who had a few good games against lousy pass defenses who hadn't yet figured out how to defend the Fitz/Gailey short-passing-game-only attack. But if for some reason someone feels inspired to learn more about the regression effect (a.k.a. regression to the mean), I'd suggest this article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 He does the beard and wedding ring shtick so we'll "feel a connection" to him despite missing the playoffs every year with him at the helm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 He does the beard and wedding ring shtick so we'll "feel a connection" to him despite missing the playoffs every year with him at the helm Well, the beard attention is obviously his own doing, but I think the media took the wedding ring item and ran with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 On WGR Jerry Sullivan spoke of the term "regressing to the mean." Basically it's a math term and what it means is that that if there is one extreme measurement, the second time the measurement would be closer to the average (mean). This is definitely the case with Fitz. In the past 7 week losing skid, our "franchise" QB has looked like the same backup that's been throwing sloppy and inaccurate passes over the past three years. He has looked good at times but his play would indicate that he is a mediocre QB. Sure, he played well for a few games but as the "regression" states, he eventually regressed back to his average self. What this means for us Bills fans? Don't expect to see the Fitzpatrick that out-dueled Tom Brady earlier this season next year -- expect more of the same. A weak armed, inaccurate QB who likely won't be able to win much more than 8 games. just warming the bench until we get our QB of the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think we can win games with Fitz, but there has to be a better team around him as a whole to get to that point. Look at Alex Smith in San Fran. Is he really better than Fitz? I don't think so, jmo. He has a good defense that gets him the ball back and makes stops. Earlier in the year we were fairing better on defense and the offense was rolling. Now the defense can't get off the field. It's putrid. I've said before that I do not see Fitz as a franchise QB. He's makes inaccurate throws for various reasons, gets nervous in the pocket at times for no reason, is wildly inconsistent on deep passes, and his arm strength is average at best. SF really shows what good coaching can do as they did zip with Nolan and Singletary. Once the Jets figured us out then everybody else did it and our coaches haven't been able to overcome it. Harbaugh has the right idea, run the ball and agressive defense to protect your QB and you can win a lot of games. SF probably wont beat the Saints or Packers but nothing would me me happier if they did because as the copycat league teams would get back to smashmouth football instead of this pansy-ass spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 These are his number this year so far in 14 games: CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD LNG INT FUM RAT 2011 Regular Season 309 496 3,329 62.3 6.71 22 60 19 2 80.8 Now these were his 2010 numbers in 13 games. Despite his hot start statistically, he regressed. His numbers are almost identical: CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD LNG INT FUM RAT 2010 Regular Season 255 441 57.8 3,000 6.80 23 65 15 4 81.8 Match these up against his career numbers. His 2011 season echoes his career performance. CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD LNG INT FUM RAT Career 988 1,671 59.1 10,433 6.24 66 98 61 15 75.3 His completion percentage is quite a bit higher this year than at any time in his career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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