The reality of the Bills Injured Reserve List

[BornandRaised]

I have been thinking alot about why the Bills are always getting hurt....it occurred to me that a lack of quality backups is contributing to this. If you have poor depth you ride your starters hard. If you backups are option 1A material, your probably don't lose any players. You would think it would all level out in that with the injuries the Bills have you develop the depth. But anytime somebody gets good they let em go during free agency because they can't pay them. My two cents anyway.

[Dorkington]

Breaking news: the Bills suck.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I like how you say "only 4 of them were starters last season" and ignore what players were contributing this year when we started so hot. Very cute.

 

Fred Jackson

Eric Wood

Kyle Williams

Shawne Merriman

Ryan Lindell

Terrance McGee

Roscoe Parrish

Marcus Easley

Donald Jones

Chris White (was looking great on ST coverage)

 

10 out of 15...

Marcus Easley? Contributing? Methinks you're stretching for straws in the other direction.

[artmalibu]

I get the idea that excuses are getting old but it is a reality. The team started the year short on talent and no depth. Many of the experts predicted the Bills to be within the worse 2 or 3 teams in the league and made to mention that many key players would be out for the season. So, in some ways the team has over achieved. That said the bills will need a good draft class and at least a couple of free agent pickups to be in a position where a few injuries wont cause the team to collapse next year.

 

No one has mentioned the loss of Chandler over the last couple of games. I think his production was missed big time last week!!

Edited December 22, 2011 by artmalibu

[DC Tom]

That's a worthless statistic. The more telling indicator would be how many were starters at the time they were injured.

 

And how much consistency there's been at certain positions. I mean, just compare the receivers from the first three and last three games:

 

First three:

David Nelson     20    233       
Stevie Johnson   20    256       
Donald Jones     11    128       
Scott Chandler    9     89       
Fred Jackson      8    115       
C.J. Spiller      3      4       
Roscoe Parrish    1     16 

 

Last three:

C.J. Spiller      15    105      
Stevie Johnson    14    250      
David Nelson      11    114      
Brad Smith        10     77      
Tashard Choice     5     50      
Derek Hagan        4     40      
Mike Caussin       4     35      
Lee Smith          4     11      
Scott Chandler     3     48      
Ruvell Martin      3     40      
Naaman Roosevelt   1     25      
Corey McIntyre     1      4 

 

In the last three games, Smith, Choice, Hagan, Caussin, Martin, and Roosevelt combined have 36% of the receptions. In the first three games, they combined for exactly zero receptions and a great big "Who the !@#$ are these guys?" As near as I can tell, only Brad Smith was even on the roster the first three games. The only consistency in the passing game at all has been Nelson and Johnson. And that's not even considering Chandler's injuries, or Jackson's absence in the backfield.

[Sisyphean Bills]

And how much consistency there's been at certain positions. I mean, just compare the receivers from the first three and last three games:

 

First three:

David Nelson     20    233       
Stevie Johnson   20    256       
Donald Jones     11    128       
Scott Chandler    9     89       
Fred Jackson      8    115       
C.J. Spiller      3      4       
Roscoe Parrish    1     16 

 

Last three:

C.J. Spiller      15    105      
Stevie Johnson    14    250      
David Nelson      11    114      
Brad Smith        10     77      
Tashard Choice     5     50      
Derek Hagan        4     40      
Mike Caussin       4     35      
Lee Smith          4     11      
Scott Chandler     3     48      
Ruvell Martin      3     40      
Naaman Roosevelt   1     25      
Corey McIntyre     1      4 

 

In the last three games, Smith, Choice, Hagan, Caussin, Martin, and Roosevelt combined have 36% of the receptions. In the first three games, they combined for exactly zero receptions and a great big "Who the !@#$ are these guys?" As near as I can tell, only Brad Smith was even on the roster the first three games. The only consistency in the passing game at all has been Nelson and Johnson. And that's not even considering Chandler's injuries, or Jackson's absence in the backfield.

Interesting data.

 

Johnson, Nelson, Chandler, and Spiller attributed for 72% of the receptions in the first set and only 57% in the second set. Since they appear in both sets, one can't attribute the drop to the "IR list" directly. What is also interesting is that the passing game by these numbers is fairly consistent in terms of catches, only increasing by 3 completions (4%). In terms of yards, the floor dropped out: the yardage is down 46% despite the slight increase in catches.

 

One (rather bogus, IMHO) argument could be that #3 WR Donald Jones was a huge loss and that defenses were constantly rolling their coverages in his direction.

 

Another argument might be that once other teams had enough tape on what the Bills liked to do, they shut it down and the Bills simply lack a counterpunch. Gailey has said he's still trying to do the same things as earlier in the season.

[snamsnoops]

The OP is right. Look at the Green Bay Packers last year who lost the equivalent players that we did this year around the same time. They limped in the playoffs but had enough depth/talent/coaching to win the super bowl. We lost 7 straight (about to be 9). We weren't built to finish the season

GB has Aaron Rogers first of all, are u really comparing last years GB team to what the bills are. Not even close. There 2nd string would beat our "starters" Oh and did i mention they have A R! seriously!

[RealityCheck]

Breaking news: the Bills suck.

Link?

[Got_Wood]

I have been thinking alot about why the Bills are always getting hurt....it occurred to me that a lack of quality backups is contributing to this. If you have poor depth you ride your starters hard. If you backups are option 1A material, your probably don't lose any players. You would think it would all level out in that with the injuries the Bills have you develop the depth. But anytime somebody gets good they let em go during free agency because they can't pay them. My two cents anyway.

 

Thanks for being one of the only people to get it. You hit the nail on the head.

 

I think people have lost their minds around here. I can only read so many posts about how devastating the losses of Donald Jones and Marcus Easley were before I start losing my sanity. You don't get 4 years to rebuild in this league guys, I'm sorry. People are trying to argue how long it took the Packers to build the team they have. Well, let's take a look, shall we...

 

2007: 13-3 record, made the playoffs with Favre still at QB and Driver was still his go-to guy.

2008: 6-10 record, missed the playoffs with Rodgers 1st year as starter and Jennings was the new WR leader.

2009: 11-5 record, made the playoffs. Rodgers and Jennings become potent combo, and Raji and Matthews shored up the strong defense.

2010: Super Bowl champions.

 

Well, it looks like the rebuild took 1 year. And this is why...

 

- Ted Thompson did an EXTENSIVE head coach search. They looked at every possibility out there. Thompson knew that he had to get it right the first time, or he would lose his job and waste several valuable years of this franchise and fan base. Read about how he hired McCarthy here.

 

- The Packers have front office positions dedicated to player development (what a novel concept) and statistical research (see the movie Moneyball). Check out their positions in the "football operations" section here.

 

- The team's best players were retained and extended. See Greg Jennings, Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Scott Wells, Chad Clifton, AJ Hawk, Tramon Williams, etc.

 

- Signed quality free agent starters to fill crucial positions. Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett.

 

- AND drafted high priority positions high in the draft: QB, OT, OLB, DL

 

 

Any questions?

Edited December 22, 2011 by Got_Wood

[ganesh]

This has become a popular scapegoat for the Bills poor performance over the past couple seasons. Too many Bills have hit the injured reserve list for them to win enough games and make the playoffs. But is this really the truth? Let's take a closer look at a couple facts that might change your mind:

 

1. Of the 15 players on the IR this season, only 4 of them were starters last season. And one of those starters was our kicker, Rian Lindell.

 

2. Included in the list of IR players this season, 5 of the players have been on IR previously in the past 2 seasons (Parrish, Merriman, Wood, Easley, and McGee).

 

3. Also included in the list of IR players, 4 players that have never played in the NFL before this season (Lee Smith, Bruce Hall, Marcus Easley, and Chris White).

 

 

It is not the number of people who went on IR, but rather WHO went on the IR.

 

Eric Wood was the Anchor and heart-and-soul of this OL. When he was playing Center, he was constantly taking on two defenders, allowed a RB or WR to be open and also giving the extra split second for Fitzpatrick to make his pass. That extra second is a huge difference in the NFL.

 

When Kyle Williams was in the middle along with Dareus, it was much harder to run against them in the middle than when he was not there. Once Kyle was gone, the DL went on a spiral and the defense suffered really badly.

 

It is not that Wood and Williams are All-Pros...However, they were MVPs on the two sides of the ball for this team. Once both went down, their season went down the drain.

 

Third: Consistency on the OL....While Bell did not go on IR, he has missed a significant amount of snaps. Once Bell and Wood went down, the OL could never get in sync and the INTs and SACKS started raising. This problem solely lies on the shoulders of the coaching staff for not having the remaining team be ready. That is what the good teams do. When they say good teams have the depth, it means the backups are well coached to take up starter job on injury. Sadly we have not found the replacements for Wood or Williams. Moving Urbik or Levitre does not solve the problems because it creates a hole in the spot they occupied.

 

 

 

I think people have lost their minds around here. I can only read so many posts about how devastating the losses of Donald Jones and Marcus Easley were before I start losing my sanity. You don't get 4 years to rebuild in this league guys, I'm sorry. People are trying to argue how long it took the Packers to build the team they have. Well, let's take a look, shall we...

 

Any questions?

 

The packers became a super bowl contender only after signing Dom Capers as their DC. Before that their defense could not hold anyone's jock. Bottom line:: It is not just about players...All these players have come through the NCAA grind and were stars on their respective college football teams. They all have talent. The onus lies on the Coaching staff to put these guys in the right place to succeed. Sadly this coaching staff has done nothing of that sort.

 

Texans, with the same level of talent went from 31st ranked defense to a Top-3 defense...Why? They hired the best 3-4 DC in Wade Phillips.

 

The 49ers - Same talent...but a different coaching staff....Fighting for Top Seed in the NFC...

 

The Bills have peddled horrible OC and DCs and to make it worse expect these rookie coordinators to covert players to new scheme instead of playing to the strength of the players drafted.

Look at the Bills DC post the Phillips Era

Jerry Gray, Perry Fewell, George Edwards....

 

The only year they had great success was when they had Kevin Gilbride as a OC and he played to the strength of his football team which was throwing to Moulds and Peerless Price.

Steve Fairchild, Schonert, Alex Van Pelt, Modkins all have sucked, because they have no experience running an NFL program.

[todd]

Interesting data.

 

Johnson, Nelson, Chandler, and Spiller attributed for 72% of the receptions in the first set and only 57% in the second set. Since they appear in both sets, one can't attribute the drop to the "IR list" directly. What is also interesting is that the passing game by these numbers is fairly consistent in terms of catches, only increasing by 3 completions (4%). In terms of yards, the floor dropped out: the yardage is down 46% despite the slight increase in catches.

 

One (rather bogus, IMHO) argument could be that #3 WR Donald Jones was a huge loss and that defenses were constantly rolling their coverages in his direction.

 

Another argument might be that once other teams had enough tape on what the Bills liked to do, they shut it down and the Bills simply lack a counterpunch. Gailey has said he's still trying to do the same things as earlier in the season.

 

Or that losing Jackson has taken a bite out of the running game, and because of that the passing game as well.

 

Thanks for being one of the only people to get it. You hit the nail on the head.

 

I think people have lost their minds around here. I can only read so many posts about how devastating the losses of Donald Jones and Marcus Easley were before I start losing my sanity. You don't get 4 years to rebuild in this league guys, I'm sorry. People are trying to argue how long it took the Packers to build the team they have. Well, let's take a look, shall we...

 

Any questions?

 

Brilliant. You don't get 4 years to rebuild? What reality do you live in, because that is just assinine. I cant' even imagine that someone would be insane enough to make that statement. Unfortunately, myopic statements like that are common. Fortunately, they can be cured with intelligence and logic.

 

The fact is, there isn't anyone in the world that could take the roster the bills had two years ago and transform it in two drafts. You can't replace 75% of a roster in two years, install a new offense and defense and special teams, and expect success. Think before you post, and come back to reality.

[Observer]

The Colts lost their best offensive player and no one is shocked that they can't win. But you dismiss the Bills losing Fred Jackson (best player on offense) and Kyle Williams (best player on D) as no big deal? That makes no sense.

Edited December 22, 2011 by Observer

[Billy in 4C]

GB has Aaron Rogers first of all, are u really comparing last years GB team to what the bills are. Not even close. There 2nd string would beat our "starters" Oh and did i mention they have A R! seriously!

 

Yes, obviously the Bills don't have the talent of the Packers. That was my point. There are teams out there that are built with talent and depth that can sustain injuries. The Bills have been built with some above average players, but most are average or below. When any player goes down they are instantly replaced by a below average player. Add in poor coaching and there's no way we can overcome that.

 

This year the Bills lost their RB, OL, DL, LB and defensive backs. Last year the Packers lost their RB (3), OL, DL, LB and defensive backs and won the super bowl.

 

Yes Aaron Rodgers is the best. But we have our $10 million/year quarterback as well. It shows how how bad our front office is that we don't have talent or depth. We reward and hire mediocrity. We can't draft. And we don't aquire enough depth to be successful when the injury bug comes around. Nix has done a poor job in building a complete roster.

[DrDawkinstein]

Yes, obviously the Bills don't have the talent of the Packers. That was my point. There are teams out there that are built with talent and depth that can sustain injuries. The Bills have been built with some above average players, but most are average or below. When any player goes down they are instantly replaced by a below average player. Add in poor coaching and there's no way we can overcome that.

 

This year the Bills lost their RB, OL, DL, LB and defensive backs. Last year the Packers lost their RB (3), OL, DL, LB and defensive backs and won the super bowl.

 

Yes Aaron Rodgers is the best. But we have our $10 million/year quarterback as well. It shows how how bad our front office is that we don't have talent or depth. We reward and hire mediocrity. We can't draft. And we don't aquire enough depth to be successful when the injury bug comes around. Nix has done a poor job in building a complete roster.

 

 

The Bills have NOT been built. The Bills are being built.

 

The Packers have been building that team for YEARS, way more than 4 even. The Bills are 24 months into a complete rebuild that will take years of quality drafting, EXACTLY LIKE it took the Packers.

 

The difference is, the Pack has had consistently good drafts so they are never re-building, they are always just building.

 

If the Bills have 2 more drafts like 2011's, then they will be sitting pretty for the future. And hopefully, that means theyll be stringing together a long line of good drafts going forward.

[Billy in 4C]

The Bills have NOT been built. The Bills are being built.

 

The Packers have been building that team for YEARS, way more than 4 even. The Bills are 24 months into a complete rebuild that will take years of quality drafting, EXACTLY LIKE it took the Packers.

 

The difference is, the Pack has had consistently good drafts so they are never re-building, they are always just building.

 

If the Bills have 2 more drafts like 2011's, then they will be sitting pretty for the future. And hopefully, that means theyll be stringing together a long line of good drafts going forward.

 

Besides Dareus and Spiller, who will be a legit starter on the team in 3 years?

[The Big Cat]

Besides Dareus and Spiller, who will be a legit starter on the team in 3 years?

 

Conservatively:

 

Byrd, Wood, Levitre.

Edited December 22, 2011 by The Big Cat

[Mr. WEO]

You obviously didn't see the game. As has been explained already - being down by 10 instead of 7 forced decisions at the end that probably cost the game.

 

Their ORT - not even their OLT - and it made their offense suddenly mortal against the lowly Chiefs.

Which decisions, exactly? And to say that the PAckers were beaten by the Chiefs because of the play of their backup tackles is an interesting take, to say the least.

 

 

Rayner missed a CHIP SHOT in a game that could have been easily managed and won down the stretch.

 

The Bills could have easily "managed and won" the Dolphins game if it wasn't for the missed FG?? They were down by 17 points in the 4th Q!! They had a nice little garbage time rally to make it close. After the frist score, this game was never even close until the final minute. They were dominated.

 

And why can't Lindell kick FGs? Unless his arm has been amputated, get him out there. He said his kicking motion is unaffected and Gailey didn't want him to cover kickoffs.

 

I have been thinking alot about why the Bills are always getting hurt....it occurred to me that a lack of quality backups is contributing to this. If you have poor depth you ride your starters hard. If you backups are option 1A material, your probably don't lose any players. You would think it would all level out in that with the injuries the Bills have you develop the depth. But anytime somebody gets good they let em go during free agency because they can't pay them. My two cents anyway.

 

What??? You're saying that teams play their starters "harder" if they know the backups are not that good---not because, as "Starters", they are naturally better tnah the backups? wow.

 

Interesting data.

 

Johnson, Nelson, Chandler, and Spiller attributed for 72% of the receptions in the first set and only 57% in the second set. Since they appear in both sets, one can't attribute the drop to the "IR list" directly. What is also interesting is that the passing game by these numbers is fairly consistent in terms of catches, only increasing by 3 completions (4%). In terms of yards, the floor dropped out: the yardage is down 46% despite the slight increase in catches.

 

One (rather bogus, IMHO) argument could be that #3 WR Donald Jones was a huge loss and that defenses were constantly rolling their coverages in his direction.

 

Another argument might be that once other teams had enough tape on what the Bills liked to do, they shut it down and the Bills simply lack a counterpunch. Gailey has said he's still trying to do the same things as earlier in the season.

 

Thanks for saving me the trouble, SB. Interesting stuff. Fitz's top 2 targets have been playing since day one. Catches are still being made, jus tfor less yardage. Is it because the other (backup) guys (other than who?, Jones? Chandler?) aren't getting as many YAC as those 2 guys or is the playcalling different? it's likely the latter. Gailey has no answer to opponents adjustments to the Freddie-less Bills.

[DrDawkinstein]

Besides Dareus and Spiller, who will be a legit starter on the team in 3 years?

 

Out of what group? Recently drafted players?

 

Our first 5 players drafted this year look like they can be starters now or eventually. Dareus, Williams, Sheppard, Searcy, and Hairston have all played and looked good. Justin Rodgers has played well in the Nickel and on KR.

 

If we can continue to draft 4-5 quality players each year, we'll be sitting pretty very soon.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Or that losing Jackson has taken a bite out of the running game, and because of that the passing game as well.

Seems like a good argument, though DC's data was strictly for the passing game and it showed the passing game's yard production being cut in half though maintaining a (near) constant volume. The conjecture about Jackson though doesn't address that the losing streak began before he was actually injured and went on IR.

 

Several of the Bills early season wins were very narrow (re: the thread on "Unsustainable Winning"). A precipitous drop in the overall production of the passing game (nearly 50%) likely has a pretty negative effect on the ability to make a fourth quarter rally and take a come-from-behind victory. There have been many threads devoted to questioning the Bills coaches on the logic of abandoning the running game altogether, even defending Spiller as a good back that just isn't being used. Another conjecture on contributing factors is that the Bills defense has gotten figured out just like their offense. It's clear anybody can run wide on this defense at will and with zero pass rush, one can matriculate down the field and score almost at will. And, many of the average or better teams played during the losing streak have done just that, burying the Bills in an avalanche of points early in games.

[Billy in 4C]

Out of what group? Recently drafted players?

 

Our first 5 players drafted this year look like they can be starters now or eventually. Dareus, Williams, Sheppard, Searcy, and Hairston have all played and looked good. Justin Rodgers has played well in the Nickel and on KR.

 

If we can continue to draft 4-5 quality players each year, we'll be sitting pretty very soon.

 

I'm talking first 2 drafts. I'd agree with you on Williams. All others I would say would be backups. Sheppard and Searcy have been bad. Hairston has suprised but is coming off 3 bad games in a row. Rodgers has looked good but was sitting on the couch a few weeks back. I don't think he's a legit starter. Remember we have had extra draft picks and it looks like we've only found 3 good starters in 2 drafts. IMO, that's not enough.