ganesh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 How about Doug Flute? The story of Doug Flutie and the NFL is so unique, they could make a motion picture out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Who is we? And that is your conclusion, read about Clabo's past and he is just one example or if you would like, FITZ!. Many teams have UDFAs or high round draft picks that were cut by other teams starting for them. I really hope a few of our guys make you eat crow this year. College and draft position do not define a career in the NFL, in a lot of cases either do the first 2-3 years in the NFL. Player development can be as big of a crap shoot as the draft and the last FO was terrible at both. I reserve judgement on this one until year 3 or 4 even. And we don't have any former busts on the team that I know of (anymore lol), so really what is the point of this? As I said before you have an agenda, but then you used the wrong example to make your point. Your last point about the board failing to identify players who were busts then successful, this was my argument with your post in the first place: that the definition was flawed. Or at least your agenda was wrong for the point you were trying to make. You're missing a few things... I didn't say there weren't some examples. The board has struggled to identify 10, lets say there's 25 of these players,... lets say there's 50 out there. Out of about 4,500 players drafted since 1990, the hit rate on attaining success with other teams BUSTs is abysmal. I did not say anything about college and draft position defining a career. My conclusion is that the BEST indicator of success in the NFL appears to be how successful the player was with their first team. I defined a BUST as someone (from any round) who spent 1-3 years with their first NFL team and was cut because they weren't good enough (not traded, not left as a free agent, not cut as a salary cap move after previously being successful). If you cannot be successful with your first team (no matter who it is) its extremely unlikely that you'll be successful for a subsequent team... estimating 0.5% success rate. I'll give you 2 example of this in the Bills starting line-up... Ubrik and Pears. Also, on this board many people have extensively criticized the FO strategy of scouring the waiver wire rather than going after better players. Basically going after other teams cast-offs, particularly on the OL, which we all b*tch about plenty on this board. Lets see what happens,... by the way, I wish for them to be successful and me wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyd19 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The story of Doug Flutie and the NFL is so unique, they could make a motion picture out of it. I agree. He was a high pick, busted with Chicago and became an all pro with the bills. Seems to fit the mold. I'm surprised no one else mentioned him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I agree. He was a high pick, busted with Chicago and became an all pro with the bills. Seems to fit the mold. I'm surprised no one else mentioned him. All pro what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 You're missing a few things... I didn't say there weren't some examples. The board has struggled to identify 10, lets say there's 25 of these players,... lets say there's 50 out there. Out of about 4,500 players drafted since 1990, the hit rate on attaining success with other teams BUSTs is abysmal. I did not say anything about college and draft position defining a career. My conclusion is that the BEST indicator of success in the NFL appears to be how successful the player was with their first team. I defined a BUST as someone (from any round) who spent 1-3 years with their first NFL team and was cut because they weren't good enough (not traded, not left as a free agent, not cut as a salary cap move after previously being successful)I would make that change because both of those things should not be left out, IMO. If you cannot be successful with your first team (no matter who it is) its extremely unlikely that you'll be successful for a subsequent team... estimating 0.5% success rate. I'll give you 2 example of this in the Bills starting line-up... Ubrik and Pears. Also, on this board many people have extensively criticized the FO strategy of scouring the waiver wire rather than going after better players. Basically going after other teams cast-offs, particularly on the OL, which we all b*tch about plenty on this board. Lets see what happens,... by the way, I wish for them to be successful and me wrong! We would have to just disagree what a bust is. I hope that they are successes, too. I do understand you, but don't agree and I think you should look up the rosters of teams around the leaguge. there is at least 2 (maybe more) of these players on most teams right now, that fit this. On the Bills we have Fitz, Urbik, Pears, Chandler.... (probably more I am not thinking of right now) Particularly on the offensive lines. I am not saying many of them are all pros now but a few like Clabo are, Fitz was pretty good last year. Most are JAGs and some just suck, I will grant you that. I also think that Urbik and Pears probably would not be considered busts (well maybe.. Urbik because he was drafted in the 3rd) but anyone after the 4th round is iffy at best to even just stick with a team. If you look at most teams like 50% of upper round draft picks don't make it past a few years. I mean when S.Nelson gets cut Saturday is he considered a 4th round bust? I know we had high hopes but a 4th doesn't set the team back like a 1st or 2nd if they don't pan out. I do understand that there is something about the size of the bust (lol) that needs to fit in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfreak Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Lloyd was traded by 49ers for a 3rd round pick He was traded for a couple picks to the Bears, but he was a bust with them and with the Redskins before he got to Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLEN1QB Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 A few weeks ago there was a discussion that prompted the following question... What NFL players, any team, have been a BUST on team #1 and then became a SUCCESS on team #2? Lets define BUST as someone who was drafted by team #1 and cut loose after 1-3 years as a failure. NOT people who were traded, left via free agency or were cut in a salary cap move. Lets define SUCCESS as someone who became a multi-year starter (off/def) or at least 1 Pro Bowl... NOT special teams stand-outs. I'm having trouble coming up with any from any team... Trent Edwards lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPicc2114 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Brandon Lloyd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuanGuzman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I agree. He was a high pick, busted with Chicago and became an all pro with the bills. Seems to fit the mold. I'm surprised no one else mentioned him. He was drafted 285 overall in the 11 round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfreak Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Steve Tasker, Visanthe Shiancoe (drafted by the Giants never had more than 12 catches), Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, Jeff Blake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 We would have to just disagree what a bust is. I hope that they are successes, too. I do understand you, but don't agree and I think you should look up the rosters of teams around the leaguge. there is at least 2 (maybe more) of these players on most teams right now, that fit this. On the Bills we have Fitz, Urbik, Pears, Chandler.... (probably more I am not thinking of right now) Particularly on the offensive lines. I am not saying many of them are all pros now but a few like Clabo are, Fitz was pretty good last year. Most are JAGs and some just suck, I will grant you that. I also think that Urbik and Pears probably would not be considered busts (well maybe.. Urbik because he was drafted in the 3rd) but anyone after the 4th round is iffy at best to even just stick with a team. If you look at most teams like 50% of upper round draft picks don't make it past a few years. I mean when S.Nelson gets cut Saturday is he considered a 4th round bust? I know we had high hopes but a 4th doesn't set the team back like a 1st or 2nd if they don't pan out. I do understand that there is something about the size of the bust (lol) that needs to fit in there too. Fitz doesn't meet the criteria. He was traded to Bengals by the Rams, and then came to the Bills as a free agent. So I wouldn't consider him a bust. Trades are much harder in the NFL than they seem to be in other sports. Teams are reluctant to part with Draft picks unless they really value someone. If there's sufficient value placed on a player that another team will give up draft picks for him, then he shouldn't be considered a BUST. BUST is Maybin, Losman, Edwards, Flowers, who never established success on their original team and were cut. Its also about QBs that were not successful on their original team... David Carr, Tim Couch, Rob Johnson, Jason Campbell,... in our current case Tyler Thigpen meets the criteria. Lets hope Fitz has a great year and we solved our QB problem, because otherwise its back to the draft for the next candidate and three more years of sucking. It won't be Thigpen. If it hasn't worked for him yet, then its not going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfreak Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 (edited) Fitz doesn't meet the criteria. He was traded to Bengals by the Rams, and then came to the Bills as a free agent. So I wouldn't consider him a bust. Trades are much harder in the NFL than they seem to be in other sports. Teams are reluctant to part with Draft picks unless they really value someone. If there's sufficient value placed on a player that another team will give up draft picks for him, then he shouldn't be considered a BUST. BUST is Maybin, Losman, Edwards, Flowers, who never established success on their original team and were cut. Its also about QBs that were not successful on their original team... David Carr, Tim Couch, Rob Johnson, Jason Campbell,... in our current case Tyler Thigpen meets the criteria. Lets hope Fitz has a great year and we solved our QB problem, because otherwise its back to the draft for the next candidate and three more years of sucking. It won't be Thigpen. If it hasn't worked for him yet, then its not going to. I am not a Thigpen fan, but in all reality he has had just as much success as Fitz has, especially if you compare them to when the Bills signed them. You contradicted yourself though, your quote If there's sufficient value placed on a player that another team will give up draft picks for him, then he shouldn't be considered a BUST-the Bills gave up quite a bit for Rob Johnson who you say qualifies as a bust? He was actually successful on his original team-the one game he played for Jacksonville. Edited September 1, 2011 by billsfreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 (edited) I am not a Thigpen fan, but in all reality he has had just as much success as Fitz has, especially if you compare them to when the Bills signed them. You contradicted yourself though, your quote If there's sufficient value placed on a player that another team will give up draft picks for him, then he shouldn't be considered a BUST-the Bills gave up quite a bit for Rob Johnson who you say qualifies as a bust? He was actually successful on his original team-the one game he played for Jacksonville. You're correct on Rob Johnson... bad oversight on my part Edited September 1, 2011 by cage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumbalaya Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 John Parrella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfreak Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 You're correct on Rob Johnson... bad oversight on my part That said, he was still a bust as least as far as ths Bills fan is concerned. Just busting your chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 That said, he was still a bust as least as far as ths Bills fan is concerned. Just busting your chops. Well, I guess the point is don't friggin' trade for anyone who hasn't proven themselves in the NFL. Didn't we do that based on essentially an incredible performance in one single game that he had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 IIRC, Jones was pretty good in AZ, but was let go, because he was having some "domestic violence" issues...in my book, TJ is one of the most underrated and under appreciated players of the last decade... http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/5036/career;_ylt=AgV_EFdlu5eelgiLEpomGVj.uLYF High AZ yardage = 511 (56 yards/game). High AZ YPC = 3.7. High AZ TDs = 5. Big-time bust until he got to Chicago. He was drafted 285 overall in the 11 round. Yeah, well, everyone in the top 300 is basically a high pick. Fitz doesn't meet the criteria. He was traded to Bengals by the Rams, and then came to the Bills as a free agent. So I wouldn't consider him a bust. Trades are much harder in the NFL than they seem to be in other sports. Teams are reluctant to part with Draft picks unless they really value someone. If there's sufficient value placed on a player that another team will give up draft picks for him, then he shouldn't be considered a BUST. BUST is Maybin, Losman, Edwards, Flowers, who never established success on their original team and were cut. Its also about QBs that were not successful on their original team... David Carr, Tim Couch, Rob Johnson, Jason Campbell,... in our current case Tyler Thigpen meets the criteria. Lets hope Fitz has a great year and we solved our QB problem, because otherwise its back to the draft for the next candidate and three more years of sucking. It won't be Thigpen. If it hasn't worked for him yet, then its not going to. I have to say, I love this exercise, but don't really like your criteria. First of all, a 7th round pick can never be a bust under any circumstances. If he ever plays in a regular-season game, that's a win. Second, the list becomes pointless when you include all draft picks and UDFAs. So only 0.5% became stars with 2nd/3rd teams? Who cares? What percentage of all draft picks and UDFAs become stars for their original teams? And there are plenty of good players who aren't stars. So basing the list around only stars is kind of silly, if you ask me. According to your argument, signing Scott Chandler (or Urbik, or Pears, or whoever) was a waste, because there's a very remote chance of him being a star. But what's the opportunity cost? If the Bills (or any team) followed your advice, who would they sign instead of another team's cast-offs? No team can fill out a roster (much less a training camp roster) without a bunch of minimum-salary-type guys. So if none of those guys have been cut by another team, who will they be instead? More UDFAs, most likely. And are those guys MORE likely to become stars than the Scott Chandlers of the world? If the answer is yes, then your strategy is great. Otherwise, it's not very helpful. The nature of late-round picks and UDFAs is that they weren't drafted high for a reason, the team has no investment in them, and they won't be given the kind of leeway that high picks get. So the Wes Welkers and James Harrisons of the world aren't very informative, in my opinion. Most of these guys won't pan out in the first place, or if they do, it'll frequently take a few years for them to develop. Sometimes they can stick around with one team until they develop (a la Jason Peters or Pat Williams), but sometimes they get cut in the interim. Look at Danny Woodhead last year. The Jets knew he could play, but he was 4th on the depth chart because there were higher-profile (and better) guys in front of him. So he was the odd man out when the Jets needed a roster spot. If Woodhead had been a 2nd-round pick, there's no way he's behind Joe McKnight on the depth chart, and no way he gets cut mid-season. I do think it's very valuable when you look at actual busts, i.e., high-round picks that did nothing for the team that drafted them. Because these are the guys who were (usually) given every opportunity to succeed, allowed to make mistakes without being cut, given extensive coaching resources to help them succeed, etc. And what this thread shows is that very few of those guys ever turn it around with another team. I think the lesson here is that if you're hoping to find another Thomas Jones or Marc Columbo, you'd better have a good idea of *why* he didn't do anything with team #1. In the case of Buster Davis, Buddy Nix thinks that the problem was injuries. I'm not sure if Rex Ryan has a justification for signing Maybin beyond "he went to high school with my kids" or "the Bills are incompetent," both of which are fairly weak. For me as a fan, this thread has shown me that when the Bills sign another team's bust, I should keep my expectations very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Willis McGahee played good for B'More Marshawn is a god now in Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Willis McGahee played good for B'More Marshawn is a god now in Seattle. Really? He had 1 great run in the playoffs against NO, but he'd been pretty disappointing other than that last year. Has he been looking better this preseason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 (edited) I have to say, I love this exercise, but don't really like your criteria. First of all, a 7th round pick can never be a bust under any circumstances. If he ever plays in a regular-season game, that's a win. Second, the list becomes pointless when you include all draft picks and UDFAs. So only 0.5% became stars with 2nd/3rd teams? Who cares? What percentage of all draft picks and UDFAs become stars for their original teams? And there are plenty of good players who aren't stars. So basing the list around only stars is kind of silly, if you ask me. According to your argument, signing Scott Chandler (or Urbik, or Pears, or whoever) was a waste, because there's a very remote chance of him being a star. But what's the opportunity cost? If the Bills (or any team) followed your advice, who would they sign instead of another team's cast-offs? No team can fill out a roster (much less a training camp roster) without a bunch of minimum-salary-type guys. So if none of those guys have been cut by another team, who will they be instead? More UDFAs, most likely. And are those guys MORE likely to become stars than the Scott Chandlers of the world? If the answer is yes, then your strategy is great. Otherwise, it's not very helpful. The nature of late-round picks and UDFAs is that they weren't drafted high for a reason, the team has no investment in them, and they won't be given the kind of leeway that high picks get. So the Wes Welkers and James Harrisons of the world aren't very informative, in my opinion. Most of these guys won't pan out in the first place, or if they do, it'll frequently take a few years for them to develop. Sometimes they can stick around with one team until they develop (a la Jason Peters or Pat Williams), but sometimes they get cut in the interim. Look at Danny Woodhead last year. The Jets knew he could play, but he was 4th on the depth chart because there were higher-profile (and better) guys in front of him. So he was the odd man out when the Jets needed a roster spot. If Woodhead had been a 2nd-round pick, there's no way he's behind Joe McKnight on the depth chart, and no way he gets cut mid-season. I do think it's very valuable when you look at actual busts, i.e., high-round picks that did nothing for the team that drafted them. Because these are the guys who were (usually) given every opportunity to succeed, allowed to make mistakes without being cut, given extensive coaching resources to help them succeed, etc. And what this thread shows is that very few of those guys ever turn it around with another team. I think the lesson here is that if you're hoping to find another Thomas Jones or Marc Columbo, you'd better have a good idea of *why* he didn't do anything with team #1. In the case of Buster Davis, Buddy Nix thinks that the problem was injuries. I'm not sure if Rex Ryan has a justification for signing Maybin beyond "he went to high school with my kids" or "the Bills are incompetent," both of which are fairly weak. For me as a fan, this thread has shown me that when the Bills sign another team's bust, I should keep my expectations very low. You're making a bunch of good points... its awesome that the 7th page of a thread hasn't degenerated into insults and nonsense, we're still having a great discussion!! The criteria didn't necessarily call for STARs, just SUCCESS. Which could be a mult-year starter that never makes the Pro Bowl. Given where we've been with our OL, we don't necessarily need Ubrik/Pears to be Steve Hutchison and Anthony Munoz,... but we're desperate to find some Jerry Ostroski's who started on OL for 6 seasons. I agree with your point that perhaps we should probably just consider the top 3 rounds in this as you point out that these are the guys that are given every chance to succeed. If they can't do it, when given every chance, then they just weren't good enough. I really like your reasoning throughout your response. Edited September 2, 2011 by cage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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