Estro Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 (edited) There is a good chance the team selecting 1st in the 2012 draft will, no matter what, select Luck first overall, but hear me out: This years QB draft class is very questionable. The two top QB's both have major question marks. Newton and Gabbert are far from safe picks, and personally I'm not a huge fan of either. I like Newton a lot more than Gabbert, but I think both are too risky to warrant the #3 pick. Scenario #1 (No 2012 NFL season): The Bills trade down from the #3 spot acquiring a 2012 1st round pick and there is no 2011 NFL season. Under this scenario, whomever trades up with the Bills will presumably be doing so to select a QB (Gabbert or Newton). In doing so, the Bills would lock themselves into pick #3 and w/e pick the team trading up holds (let's say the 49ers at pick #7) for the 2012 draft. With the #3 and #7 picks overall in next years draft you give yourself a lot of ammunition to move up to #1 to select Luck. If the Panthers select Newton you would also have the added bonus of Carolina not being in the market for a QB next year. The other side of the coin is if Newton goes #1, there's proabably not a good chance of a team moving up to #3. Scenario #2 (2012 season is played): The Bills once again trade down and acquire a 2012 1st round pick, let's say from Washington. Now you're banking on Washington taking its lumps in year 1 with a rookie QB and giving you a relatively high 1st round pick (say a pick in the 4-8 range). The Bills in all likelihood are at least another year or 2 away from truly competing, so they should have another high 1st round pick (around 8-12). Once again we come out of the 2011 season with 2 high 1st round picks, giving us plenty of ammo to leapfrog teams for the rights to Andrew Luck. I know there are a lot of ifs and buts, but for a team that hasn't had a franchise QB for a decade and a half you have to position yourself for a chance at Andrew Luck, who in my eyes is head and shoulders above any QB prospect in this years draft. He has the pocket presence, the accuracy, the mobility, the intellingence, the character, the ball skills and the field vision to lead a franchise for 10+ years. So, if the Bills can maneuver this year to put themselves in a legitimate position to have a chance at Luck they need to do it. The biggest IF, is will there be any teams willing to come up to #3 this year and part with a future 1st rounder? I hope so. Edited February 27, 2011 by Estro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 There is a good chance the team selecting 1st in the 2012 draft will, no matter what, select Luck first overall, but hear me out: This years QB draft class is very questionable. The two top QB's both have major question marks. Newton and Gabbert are far from safe picks, and personally I'm not a huge fan of either. I like Newton a lot more than Gabbert, but I think both are too risky to warrant the #3 pick. Scenario #1 (No 2012 NFL season): The Bills trade down from the #3 spot acquiring a 2012 1st round pick and there is no 2011 NFL season. Under this scenario, whomever trades up with the Bills will presumably be doing so to select a QB (Gabbert or Newton). In doing so, the Bills would lock themselves into pick #3 and w/e pick the team trading up holds (let's say the 49ers at pick #7) for the 2012 draft. With the #3 and #7 picks overall in next years draft you give yourself a lot of ammunition to move up to #1 to select Luck. If the Panthers select Newton you would also have the added bonus of Carolina not being in the market for a QB next year. The other side of the coin is if Newton goes #1, there's proabably not a good chance of a team moving up to #3. Scenario #2 (2012 season is played): The Bills once again trade down and acquire a 2012 1st round pick, let's say from Washington. Now you're banking on Washington taking its lumps in year 1 with a rookie QB and giving you a relatively high 1st round pick (say a pick in the 4-8 range). The Bills in all likelihood are at least another year or 2 away from truly competing, so they should have another high 1st round pick (around 8-12). Once again we come out of the 2011 season with 2 high 1st round picks, giving us plenty of ammo to leapfrog teams for the rights to Andrew Luck. I know there are a lot of ifs and buts, but for a team that hasn't had a franchise QB for a decade and a half you have to position yourself for a chance at Andrew Luck, who in my eyes is head and shoulders above any QB prospect in this years draft. He has the pocket presence, the accuracy, the mobility, the intellingence, the character, the ball skills and the field vision to lead a franchise for 10+ years. So, if the Bills can maneuver this year to put themselves in a legitimate position to have a chance at Luck they need to do it. The biggest IF, is will there be any teams willing to come up to #3 this year and part with a future 1st rounder? I hope so. If Andrew Luck declares for the 2012 draft & has a season that warrants being the #1 pick-NO TEAM, unless they already have a young franchise QB who missed the season with an injury that is 100% healed, will trade the pick, no matter what is offered. So any scenario that involves drafting Luck, has to have the Bills with the #1 pick without any 2012 trades. Anyone who thinks there won't be any football in 2011, really doesn't understand the economics. The NFL makes money. As long as they make money, they'll be a season. Now that season may not be 16 games, or even 12, but I can guarantee this-On Thanksgiving, the NFL will be playing football, the 2012 playoffs & Super Bowl will occur. This is not the NHL. The economics are not the least bit comparable where the league will lose its whole season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 If Andrew Luck declares for the 2012 draft & has a season that warrants being the #1 pick-NO TEAM, unless they already have a young franchise QB who missed the season with an injury that is 100% healed, will trade the pick, no matter what is offered. So any scenario that involves drafting Luck, has to have the Bills with the #1 pick without any 2012 trades. Anyone who thinks there won't be any football in 2011, really doesn't understand the economics. The NFL makes money. As long as they make money, they'll be a season. Now that season may not be 16 games, or even 12, but I can guarantee this-On Thanksgiving, the NFL will be playing football, the 2012 playoffs & Super Bowl will occur. This is not the NHL. The economics are not the least bit comparable where the league will lose its whole season. I too agree that there will be a 2011 season in some form or fashion. I disagree with your outlook that any team that ends up with the #1 pick will stay pat and select Luck. Luck will undoubtedly go #1, but there is a small chance the team at #1 has what they believe is their franchise guy. A team like the Rams (Bradford), Lions (Stafford), or the teams that select Gabbert and Newton (assuming they spend a high draft pick on them) could conceivably end up with the #1 pick. If that were to happen the last thing they would do is draft another QB at #1. It would require a ransom to get up there, but 2 high 1st round picks in the same draft plus say a 2nd rounder or a future 1st rounder could be convincing to a team that doesn't have a QB need. Chances aren't good, but the possibility remains. Like I said, I'm all in on Luck. I think he'll be a star in the NFL. I think the worst case scenario for Luck is he's a Matt Ryan like QB in the NFL, but to be honest I'd be dissapointed if that's all he became because I believe he could become great, and I don't believe Ryan is or ever will be great. I'd give up a ton to have him. Guys like Luck only come around once or twice a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 If Andrew Luck declares for the 2012 draft & has a season that warrants being the #1 pick-NO TEAM, unless they already have a young franchise QB who missed the season with an injury that is 100% healed, will trade the pick, no matter what is offered. So any scenario that involves drafting Luck, has to have the Bills with the #1 pick without any 2012 trades. Exactly. Almost 1/3 of the leauge has no long term answer at QB and it's highly likely one of them will end up with the #1 pick next year and they won't be trading. Unless that team is the Bills, Luck won't be coming to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Why not just take Blaine Gabbert this year with the pick we have, since Harbaugh liked him even more than Luck and tried to recruit him to Stanford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyjustbcuz Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 There is a good chance the team selecting 1st in the 2012 draft will, no matter what, select Luck first overall, but hear me out: This years QB draft class is very questionable. The two top QB's both have major question marks. Newton and Gabbert are far from safe picks, and personally I'm not a huge fan of either. I like Newton a lot more than Gabbert, but I think both are too risky to warrant the #3 pick. Scenario #1 (No 2012 NFL season): The Bills trade down from the #3 spot acquiring a 2012 1st round pick and there is no 2011 NFL season. Under this scenario, whomever trades up with the Bills will presumably be doing so to select a QB (Gabbert or Newton). In doing so, the Bills would lock themselves into pick #3 and w/e pick the team trading up holds (let's say the 49ers at pick #7) for the 2012 draft. With the #3 and #7 picks overall in next years draft you give yourself a lot of ammunition to move up to #1 to select Luck. If the Panthers select Newton you would also have the added bonus of Carolina not being in the market for a QB next year. The other side of the coin is if Newton goes #1, there's proabably not a good chance of a team moving up to #3. Scenario #2 (2012 season is played): The Bills once again trade down and acquire a 2012 1st round pick, let's say from Washington. Now you're banking on Washington taking its lumps in year 1 with a rookie QB and giving you a relatively high 1st round pick (say a pick in the 4-8 range). The Bills in all likelihood are at least another year or 2 away from truly competing, so they should have another high 1st round pick (around 8-12). Once again we come out of the 2011 season with 2 high 1st round picks, giving us plenty of ammo to leapfrog teams for the rights to Andrew Luck. I know there are a lot of ifs and buts, but for a team that hasn't had a franchise QB for a decade and a half you have to position yourself for a chance at Andrew Luck, who in my eyes is head and shoulders above any QB prospect in this years draft. He has the pocket presence, the accuracy, the mobility, the intellingence, the character, the ball skills and the field vision to lead a franchise for 10+ years. So, if the Bills can maneuver this year to put themselves in a legitimate position to have a chance at Luck they need to do it. The biggest IF, is will there be any teams willing to come up to #3 this year and part with a future 1st rounder? I hope so. First of all..I like the creativity of your post and some of your ideas have entered into my mind a few times...but here's the thing, to some extent your putting off or some would say sacrificing a year to "only possibly" get a player you desire who is an unproven commodity at the NFL level, and by no means a sure thing! When I'm playing monopoly and there is any opportunity to expand the properties I do when given the opportunity. I don't wait around in the hopes that I land on Park Place or Boardwalk and not take Pennsylvania Avenue when it's available. The other night nobody landed on park place nor boardwalk until the game was almost over, and by the time (and a big "if")..the Bills do get Luck in the 2012 and he is developed by either 2013 or 2014 into a starter, the Bills may be at their 14th straight year without the playoffs and starting from scratch with a new GM and Coach. I don't think the Bills have that luxury of waiting by the year for a specific player that they may not even get.. I like the scenario(s) if it were to go exactly as you say, but here is a big question..................... How much time would the GM Buddy Nix have left in Buffalo if we did as you suggest, and during the 2011 College football season Stanford QB Andrew Luck has a major tear in his ACL like McGahee did? What if the next best QB is not of 1st round quality? Do you prolong things until 2013? I just don't think you can mortgage your future on possibly having a shot at one specific player a year down the road. If you find a QB in this draft that you think is your Illinois Avenue, St. Chales Place, or Pennsylvania Ave. you take him because everybody wants Boardwalk, and 31 teams can't have him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 (edited) First of all..I like the creativity of your post and some of your ideas have entered into my mind a few times...but here's the thing, to some extent your putting off or some would say sacrificing a year to "only possibly" get a player you desire who is an unproven commodity at the NFL level, and by no means a sure thing! When I'm playing monopoly and there is any opportunity to expand the properties I do when given the opportunity. I don't wait around in the hopes that I land on Park Place or Boardwalk and not take Pennsylvania Avenue when it's available. The other night nobody landed on park place nor boardwalk until the game was almost over, and by the time (and a big "if")..the Bills do get Luck in the 2012 and he is developed by either 2013 or 2014 into a starter, the Bills may be at their 14th straight year without the playoffs and starting from scratch with a new GM and Coach. I don't think the Bills have that luxury of waiting by the year for a specific player that they may not even get.. I like the scenario(s) if it were to go exactly as you say, but here is a big question..................... How much time would the GM Buddy Nix have left in Buffalo if we did as you suggest, and during the 2011 College football season Stanford QB Andrew Luck has a major tear in his ACL like McGahee did? What if the next best QB is not of 1st round quality? Do you prolong things until 2013? I just don't think you can mortgage your future on possibly having a shot at one specific player a year down the road. If you find a QB in this draft that you think is your Illinois Avenue, St. Chales Place, or Pennsylvania Ave. you take him because everybody wants Boardwalk, and 31 teams can't have him! You make some good points. If the Bills believe they can get their franchise guy at #3 this year, then go ahead and pull the trigger. I'm not 100% sold on Nix/Gailey, but I do have a lot of faith on their eye for talent. I especially trust Gailey to get the most out of any QB we choose. I just happen to believe that Gailey/Nix won't value Cam or Gabbert to take them with the #3 pick. If that is the case then your next chance to get a franchise QB is in the 2012 draft, so you should set yourself up in the best possible way to strike gold in 2012. If they're not sold on Cam or Gabbert and another team wants to trade up, they'd have a great chance to snag an additional 1st rounder for the 2012 draft. I don't care how old Gailey or Nix are, this team will not not be built overnight, and I'd be all for gaining an additional future 1st rounder to slide down 4-7 spots in this years draft. I didn't know Harbaugh recruited Gabbert, good call, maybe he has the talent, I just don't like what I saw at Missouri. He looks to panic as soon as there is any type of rush or pressure. I know Mayock highlighted a play where Gabbert kept his eyes downfield under pressure and delivered a TD pass. The problem is that was one play, when I watch his throws throughout an entire game I often see him duck and stare at the rush when faced with pressure, very Trent Edwards like. That's what scares me about Gabbert. Edited February 27, 2011 by Estro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NishP Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 1st. Von Miller 2nd. Stephen Paea 3rd. Colin Kapernick or Luke Stocker 4th. Casey Matthews 4th. John Moffit Hopefully we address LT during free agency and TE, if we don't address TE during FA then luke stocker during the 3rd. I dont post ,much just figured id share my opinion..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 (edited) 1st. Von Miller 2nd. Stephen Paea 3rd. Colin Kapernick or Luke Stocker 4th. Casey Matthews 4th. John Moffit Hopefully we address LT during free agency and TE, if we don't address TE during FA then luke stocker during the 3rd. I dont post ,much just figured id share my opinion..... A nice draft, although I'm not a big fan of Von's. There is a chance Paea is there for us because of his recent knee injury. I assume you see him as a 3-4 DE because I believe he's a bit undersized to play NT. Not a huge fan of Kapernick, and need to look into Stocker more. I'm not sure Gailey values TE's in his offense that much, but who knows. I really like the 2 4th round picks, but I think it's unrealistic to believe either will be there in round 4. I think Casey Matthews can be a starting ILB in the 3-4, he is a bit undersized though. I see him as a late 2nd to 3rd round pick. Moffitt is one of the better guards in this draft, and probably won't escape the 2nd round, especially for a playoff caliber team looking to solidify the inside of their line (Colts, Steelers, Falcons, Patriots, Packers). Edited February 27, 2011 by Estro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What makes you prefer Miller to Quinn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NishP Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What makes you prefer Miller to Quinn? Millers a lot quicker and can also play 4-3 outside line backer i think quinn would have to play 4-3 defensive end..... since we r running this hybrid 3-4, 4-3 i think our OLB position is weaker then our DE position when we change to the 4-3 so i went with miller.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 1st. Von Miller 2nd. Stephen Paea 3rd. Colin Kapernick or Luke Stocker 4th. Casey Matthews 4th. John Moffit Hopefully we address LT during free agency and TE, if we don't address TE during FA then luke stocker during the 3rd. I dont post ,much just figured id share my opinion..... Only pick I can get behind is Matthews. Sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NishP Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Only pick I can get behind is Matthews. Sorry dude. im fine with that... who would you prefer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Stephen Paea would be great if we were still a 4-3 team. He's not big enough to play NT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NishP Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Stephen Paea would be great if we were still a 4-3 team. He's not big enough to play NT. i wasn't drafting him as a NT, would have used him as a 3-4 DE since he's 311 and run's a sub 5.00 40 time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Millers a lot quicker and can also play 4-3 outside line backer i think quinn would have to play 4-3 defensive end..... since we r running this hybrid 3-4, 4-3 i think our OLB position is weaker then our DE position when we change to the 4-3 so i went with miller.. I could be wrong but I was under the impression Quinn had the size to play 4-3 DE and the speed to play 3-4 OLB which on the surface would appear to be the perfect fit for a hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NishP Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I could be wrong but I was under the impression Quinn had the size to play 4-3 DE and the speed to play 3-4 OLB which on the surface would appear to be the perfect fit for a hybrid system. No your not wrong thats right.... id just prefer miller as an OLB for both the 34 and 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 i wasn't drafting him as a NT, would have used him as a 3-4 DE since he's 311 and run's a sub 5.00 40 time He weighed in at the combine at 303. He was 295 at the Senior Bowl. I don't see him as a DE. He's best suited as a DT in a 4-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 No your not wrong thats right.... id just prefer miller as an OLB for both the 34 and 43 To my eye (amateur draft scout wannabe) Quinn looks plenty athletic enough to play 3-4 backer. And really, there are plenty of players at that position who spend very little time in coverage…Terrell Suggs, DeMarcus Ware… If Quinn can rush the passer and play the run like most scouts think, I don't think his coverage skills will weigh very heavily in the eyes of most teams. I do like Miller though (after some initial doubt) and believe that he'll be a player who can do everything…kind of like an Aaron Curry with better pass rush skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_want_2_BILL_Lieve Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Stephen Paea would be great if we were still a 4-3 team. He's not big enough to play NT. I don't know a lot about the kid. But he's a solid 305 lbs and I did see him bench 225 lbs 49 times. And I believe that is a combine record. Put another 20 lbs on him and I think he's "big enough." He's certianly strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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