QBs drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round from 2000-2010

[Rockinon]

Fitzpatrick will never improve his completion percentage. He is a career 57.8% passer, with his highest mark of 59.4% in 2008.

 

I don't think that Fitz is terrible, but I don't think he is a "franchise" guy that is going to somehow "figure it out" and complete 65% of his passes and have 7.5 YPC and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl.

All right. I'm going to have to call BS. You don't know that, not by a long shot. This is a guy that has earned the respect of his coaches and his peers. We're not talking about just meeting expectations but exceeding them far beyond what anyone thought possible. People who do that deserve to be given a second look. He has become rallying point for this team and you are simply ignoring his accomplishments in favor of a rookie that will only cause dissension and hard feelings amongst team mates. You really don't know crap about this game and if you really believe any rookie is going to come in and compete at a higher level you are are living in a fantasy world. There are no rookies with a better chance of leading this team into the playoffs, not by a mile.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Fitzpatrick will never improve his completion percentage. He is a career 57.8% passer, with his highest mark of 59.4% in 2008.

 

Dude, you do realize that at least 5 of the 1st round draftee QBs you have highlighted as "franchise guys" have career stats that are similar or worse, right?

Mike Vick 55.3%

Eli Manning 58%

Matt Stafford 53.3%

Mark Sanchez 54.4%

Josh Freeman 58.8%

 

These QB are all franchise guys and sure to improve because (?????) while Fitz has obviously peaked and won't get any better because (?????)

By the way, until this year when he suddenly jumped up to 62.1%, Vick was 53.8% (average for 6 years as "the man") .

 

I don't think that Fitz is terrible, but I don't think he is a "franchise" guy that is going to somehow "figure it out" and complete 65% of his passes and have 7.5 YPC and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl.

 

We get it. You don't think Fitz is a franchise guy, therefore he can't possibly improve. You do think the other dudes are franchise guys, therefore the sky is the limit.

 

Look, I'm all fine with "keep looking for a better QB even if you have a guy who can play well, even play great." That's how GB wound up with Rodgers and how NE wound up with Brady. It's also been pointed out numerous times that the odds of drafting a quality NFL starter are best in the 1st round, where your (generous) list puts them at about 50%.

 

What I don't get is the rational basis for the absolute pronouncements on Fitz, especially while listing 4-5 guys as "franchise QB" whose lifetime stats are no better - including one whose completion percentage jumped almost 10% in his 8th season. It seems to fly in the face of evidence.

 

Let's throw out all of the stats for a moment...as we all know a lot of factors go into how an individual's stats end up...

so, for just a minute lets not think of stats.

 

1. Fitzpatrick will be our starter next year. This is not in doubt as Chan loves him and even if the Bills take a QB at 3,

I don't think Chan will want to start any of them year one since most of them didn't play in a Pro-style offense and

will need to learn a lot. So, since Fitz will be our general next year, at least, can't we stop tearing the poor guy down

and start rooting for him?

 

2. If the FO feels that there is a possible franchise QB on the board at their pick, they will not pass him up...nothing we say

pro- or anti-Fitz will make any difference to the FO...if a guy they like is there, they will take him and start grooming him

behind Fitz (to step in if Fitz doesn't keep improving or if the player picked is just better; or for the future if Fitz keeps playing well).

 

3. Regardless of stats, anyone who watched last season should be able to see that Fitz took a huge step forward in his own

progression as a QB from the year before. Going into last season I was not a Fitz supporter. In fact, I thought of him as the

last/worst option for us at QB. I was so wrong. Fitz totally won me over last year with his heart, his smarts, and his overall

play. The kid is a gamer. He may or may not be the long term answer; he may have plateaued and we've seen his best or

he might keep improving. We won't know until next year, but tearing him down won't get us Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or

any other QB anyone is wishing for. That's up to the FO and a bit of fate. Fitzpatrick is the QB of the Buffalo Bills right now,

so let's root for the guy and let the future play out as it will.

 

Go FItz! Go Bills!

 

Well put. Agree on all fronts - that is how it should be. As to point 2, the other side is if they have doubts about the guys that are there, they should not pick a QB just because "oh, this is our only chance to draft a franchise QB and if we don't do it now we're doomed!"

[silvermike]

QB talent dies off after the first round. Essentially, you start picking among backups hoping for a break. First round QBs are risky, no doubt about it, but there really isn't any other way of having a realistic shot at a first round QB.

[tonyjustbcuz]

2nd Rounders

Drew Brees, Purdue

Quincy Carter, Georgia

Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington

Kellen Clemens, Oregon

Travaris Jackson, Alabama St.

Kevin Kolb, Houston

John Beck, BYU

Drew Stanton, Michigan

Brian Brohm, Louisville

Chad Henne, Michigan

Pat White, West Virginia

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

 

3rd Rounders:

Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra

Chris Redman, Louisville

Josh McCown, Sam Houston St.

Dave Ragone, Louisville

Chris Simms, Texas

Matt Schaub, Virginia

Charlie Frye, Akron

Andrew Walter, Arizona St.

David Greene, Georgia

Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson

Brodie Croyle, Alabama

Trent Edwards, Stanford

Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St.

Colt McCoy, Texas

Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State

 

Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%.

 

In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such:

Chad Pennington

Mike Vick

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Carson Palmer

Byron Leftwich

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

J.P. Losman

Alex Smith

Aaron Rodgers

Jason Campbell

Vince Young

Matt Leinart

Jay Cutler

JaMarcus Russell

Brady Quinn

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

Sam Bradford

Tim Tebow

 

Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick.

 

Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie:

 

2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC.

2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC

 

Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come?

 

Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked.

 

Some really great informative statistical data that I didn't totally realize even though I am obsessed with the draft and everything NFL! That was great, and that may actually lead to me reevaluating my personal outlook on the upcoming draft and I may actually change my latest mock draft that I'm about to post, once I read this again and look at the QB's that will be available in the draft one more time...I was leaning towards trading down with S.Fran and selecting OLB Von Miller, but now I'm not so sure! Excellent Post...

[Mr_Blizzard]

Im on the hold out for Luck train.

+1!

[Nanker]

Generally speaking, the more talented players get taken in the first round.

Maybe the fact that first rounders are more talented than 2nd and 3rd rounders has something to do with how well they do in the pros.

If Green Bay took Brian Brohm in the First round in 2008 instead of the Second round - would that guarantee or even improve his chances that he'd have become their "franchise QB"? Or - Chad Henne in Miami who was taken one pick after Brohm?

[Green Lightning]

Let's throw out all of the stats for a moment...as we all know a lot of factors go into how an individual's stats end up...

so, for just a minute lets not think of stats.

 

1. Fitzpatrick will be our starter next year. This is not in doubt as Chan loves him and even if the Bills take a QB at 3,

I don't think Chan will want to start any of them year one since most of them didn't play in a Pro-style offense and

will need to learn a lot. So, since Fitz will be our general next year, at least, can't we stop tearing the poor guy down

and start rooting for him?

 

2. If the FO feels that there is a possible franchise QB on the board at their pick, they will not pass him up...nothing we say

pro- or anti-Fitz will make any difference to the FO...if a guy they like is there, they will take him and start grooming him

behind Fitz (to step in if Fitz doesn't keep improving or if the player picked is just better; or for the future if Fitz keeps playing well).

 

3. Regardless of stats, anyone who watched last season should be able to see that Fitz took a huge step forward in his own

progression as a QB from the year before. Going into last season I was not a Fitz supporter. In fact, I thought of him as the

last/worst option for us at QB. I was so wrong. Fitz totally won me over last year with his heart, his smarts, and his overall

play. The kid is a gamer. He may or may not be the long term answer; he may have plateaued and we've seen his best or

he might keep improving. We won't know until next year, but tearing him down won't get us Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or

any other QB anyone is wishing for. That's up to the FO and a bit of fate. Fitzpatrick is the QB of the Buffalo Bills right now,

so let's root for the guy and let the future play out as it will.

 

Go FItz! Go Bills!

 

This

[8-8 Forever?]

Im on the hold out for Luck train.

Me too. Newton is not the guy.

[fansince88]

I think if you give Fitzpatrick a running game and a solid defense he'd be every bit the QB that Eli Manning is. Actually I think he's already as good as him.

 

The Bills have two ways to go...

 

1. They either go the franchise route with Newton or Gabbert,

 

2. Or they follow the NY Giants Superbowl winning route with a solid defense, running game and solid QB.

 

Dude had 23 TDs in 13 games without a running game to protect him. He made a huge leap in performance and can still get even better. I think he's just a notch below a franchise QB and that's good enough to win the whole darn thing.

Im going to put myself in the line of fire here and agree fully with you 1billsfan. Ill go down with this ship. We drafted Spiller last year and he wasnt any better than sticking with Lynch. If Fitz has a little more time to throw he gets more touchdowns. Also how many droped passes did he throw? That passer rating is a poor stat. There were a couple of games this past season that he put 4-8 balls on the spot and our receivers muffed. Who gets the blame,??? QBs do! There is no stat for that.

If you add 5 dropped passed as completions per game that is 65 more in the completion column. What does that equate to. Just saying that like in Baseball that has errors for throwers and catchers the stats for QBs and receivers should be split. If I was Fitz's WR his stats would be even worse

[Hapless Bills Fan]

IMO it's improbable... But not impossible.

I don't know how you can tell the future, wanna let us in on the secret?

 

Fitz is an anomaly. Anytime you hear NFL announcers saying, with a tone of respect, "the Harvard quarterback....tough as nails..." you have something highly unusual going down.

When you have something highly unusual going doing, there's minimal basis for prediction.

 

I'd like the secret of foretelling the future myself. It would improve my equities portfolio

[Original Byrd Man]

2nd Rounders

Drew Brees, Purdue

Quincy Carter, Georgia

Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington

Kellen Clemens, Oregon

Travaris Jackson, Alabama St.

Kevin Kolb, Houston

John Beck, BYU

Drew Stanton, Michigan

Brian Brohm, Louisville

Chad Henne, Michigan

Pat White, West Virginia

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

 

3rd Rounders:

Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra

Chris Redman, Louisville

Josh McCown, Sam Houston St.

Dave Ragone, Louisville

Chris Simms, Texas

Matt Schaub, Virginia

Charlie Frye, Akron

Andrew Walter, Arizona St.

David Greene, Georgia

Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson

Brodie Croyle, Alabama

Trent Edwards, Stanford

Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St.

Colt McCoy, Texas

Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State

 

Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%.

 

In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such:

Chad Pennington

Mike Vick

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Carson Palmer

Byron Leftwich

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

J.P. Losman

Alex Smith

Aaron Rodgers

Jason Campbell

Vince Young

Matt Leinart

Jay Cutler

JaMarcus Russell

Brady Quinn

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

Sam Bradford

Tim Tebow

 

Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick.

 

Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie:

 

2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC.

2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC

 

Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come?

 

Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked.

Sorry, but fix the D this year, draft a QB next, when there are potentially better options with many less questions. The #3 pick is no guarantee a QB taken there will be any good, so take one where ever we end up in the draft next year.

[Rockinon]

QB talent dies off after the first round. Essentially, you start picking among backups hoping for a break. First round QBs are risky, no doubt about it, but there really isn't any other way of having a realistic shot at a first round QB.

You can throw these statistics out the window, because most 1st round QBs are actually expected to come right in and play and do. Second rounders, no. They have to sit behind someone all ready starting and wait for their opportunity.

[NoSaint]

Im going to put myself in the line of fire here and agree fully with you 1billsfan. Ill go down with this ship. We drafted Spiller last year and he wasnt any better than sticking with Lynch. If Fitz has a little more time to throw he gets more touchdowns. Also how many droped passes did he throw? That passer rating is a poor stat. There were a couple of games this past season that he put 4-8 balls on the spot and our receivers muffed. Who gets the blame,??? QBs do! There is no stat for that.

If you add 5 dropped passed as completions per game that is 65 more in the completion column. What does that equate to. Just saying that like in Baseball that has errors for throwers and catchers the stats for QBs and receivers should be split. If I was Fitz's WR his stats would be even worse

 

I'll continue to repeat- Brady brees and manning all had WR drop considerably more passes. This argument widens the gap between fitz and them.

[1billsfan]

Im going to put myself in the line of fire here and agree fully with you 1billsfan. Ill go down with this ship. We drafted Spiller last year and he wasnt any better than sticking with Lynch. If Fitz has a little more time to throw he gets more touchdowns. Also how many droped passes did he throw? That passer rating is a poor stat. There were a couple of games this past season that he put 4-8 balls on the spot and our receivers muffed. Who gets the blame,??? QBs do! There is no stat for that.

If you add 5 dropped passed as completions per game that is 65 more in the completion column. What does that equate to. Just saying that like in Baseball that has errors for throwers and catchers the stats for QBs and receivers should be split. If I was Fitz's WR his stats would be even worse

 

Line of fire???? Hardly. I don't think what I said was controversial at all. I think what's controversial is the short shrift many here continue to give Fitzpatrick. They act as if last season was a one and done thing. Sorry but after what he did last season, Fitzpatrick has cemented himself as a starting NFL QB for the next 6 years of his career, be it here or after he gets traded from Buffalo. It's not controversial, it's reality. Dude can play, it just took him a while to figure it all out.

 

I look at that first pick this way, if either Newton or Gabbert are going to be perennial top 5 QBs in the NFL (that kind of franchise QB) then the Bills would have to take that player. But if not, Fitzpatrick can win you a Superbowl if the Bills build up a strong as nails defense and a supportive running game. I was extremely impressed by Fitzpatrick last year at how much he grew into the roll of starting QB. The chemistry he had with his receivers hasn't been seen here since Bledsoes' first year with the Bills.

[BiggieScooby]

Hurricane Ditka - hindsight is 20/20. Fitz is better than Gabbert and Newton for 2011. In 2012 Fitz is still better, 2013 possibly not, but that said Fitz is still the best option now. Why try to fit a square peg in a round hole? Why do we need to take Gabbert or Newton if a guy like Fairley, Quinn, Dareus, or Bowers will be available? This draft is loaded with defensive front 7 talent. We have a need for improving the worst front 7 in the NFL. We can't win without a serious upgrade. Fitz can improve his game in the accuracy dept. In baseball, pitchers will often strengthen their arms in the offseason and improve their accuracy. If a pitcher can make his arm stronger or work on his accuracy why can't Fitz? Why can't Gailey & Fitz continue developing his game? A lot of QBs come on later in their careers. Aaron Rodgers is born in 1983 Fitz in 1982. Why can't Fitz get better? Kurt Warner went from a grocery store stock-boy to a Super Bowl winning QB at the age of 28. Fitz has the intelligence, leadership, and moxy to lead us and start winning if he is given a better supporting cast. My hope is we give him the opportunity.

[Rob's House]

Some of these stats are misleading for a number of reasons.

 

- First round QBs are necessarily given more opportunities and attention because the team has more invested in them.

 

- A team isn't going to pick a back-up in the first rd but may well do so later, meaning they've got a guy they may not really expect (but hope) will become the starter.

 

- Teams pick the guy they think will be a star in the first rd because they're afraid he won't make it to the second, not because picking him early will somehow make him a better player.

 

Also, this years crop is different from most of the last decade. There are arguably a half dozen guys who could potentially be a "franchise" QB, with none that really stand out from the pack. Meaning that the likelihood of getting that 2nd or 3rd rd gem could be higher this year than in years past.

[bobobonators]

Hurricane Ditka - hindsight is 20/20. Fitz is better than Gabbert and Newton for 2011. In 2012 Fitz is still better, 2013 possibly not, but that said Fitz is still the best option now. Why try to fit a square peg in a round hole? Why do we need to take Gabbert or Newton if a guy like Fairley, Quinn, Dareus, or Bowers will be available? This draft is loaded with defensive front 7 talent. We have a need for improving the worst front 7 in the NFL. We can't win without a serious upgrade. Fitz can improve his game in the accuracy dept. In baseball, pitchers will often strengthen their arms in the offseason and improve their accuracy. If a pitcher can make his arm stronger or work on his accuracy why can't Fitz? Why can't Gailey & Fitz continue developing his game? A lot of QBs come on later in their careers. Aaron Rodgers is born in 1983 Fitz in 1982. Why can't Fitz get better? Kurt Warner went from a grocery store stock-boy to a Super Bowl winning QB at the age of 28. Fitz has the intelligence, leadership, and moxy to lead us and start winning if he is given a better supporting cast. My hope is we give him the opportunity.

 

Perfect post man. My thoughts exactly.

 

Hurricane Ditka - hindsight is 20/20. Fitz is better than Gabbert and Newton for 2011. In 2012 Fitz is still better, 2013 possibly not, but that said Fitz is still the best option now. Why try to fit a square peg in a round hole? Why do we need to take Gabbert or Newton if a guy like Fairley, Quinn, Dareus, or Bowers will be available? This draft is loaded with defensive front 7 talent. We have a need for improving the worst front 7 in the NFL. We can't win without a serious upgrade. Fitz can improve his game in the accuracy dept. In baseball, pitchers will often strengthen their arms in the offseason and improve their accuracy. If a pitcher can make his arm stronger or work on his accuracy why can't Fitz? Why can't Gailey & Fitz continue developing his game? A lot of QBs come on later in their careers. Aaron Rodgers is born in 1983 Fitz in 1982. Why can't Fitz get better? Kurt Warner went from a grocery store stock-boy to a Super Bowl winning QB at the age of 28. Fitz has the intelligence, leadership, and moxy to lead us and start winning if he is given a better supporting cast. My hope is we give him the opportunity.

 

Perfect post man. My thoughts exactly.

[K Gun Special]

Perfect post man. My thoughts exactly.

 

 

 

Perfect post man. My thoughts exactly.

 

 

Certainly you dont mean the part that Fitz is better two years from now. He was argubly not even better than bradford this year and he was a rookie.

 

The legend of Fitz grows.

[The Cincinnati Kid]

The biggest thing about Fitz's stats, that I noticed was not already mentioned, is that he NEVER went through the OFFSEASON as the starter. So much timing and comfort is built throughout the offseason between QBs and WRs, TEs, and RBs. During the season, the teams practice 3 days per week, maybe one of those in full gear and at full speed. Without the offseason to work out all the timing and familiarity with his guys, Fitz has started each game with a distinct lack of Reps than a guy like Brees or Brady. Unfortunately, he will probably be behind the 8-Ball again this season with the CBA issues, but he'll have all of last season to build on, plus whatever offseason stuff does go on this year. I think those workouts are good for at least 5% improvement in Completion % stats. He is a smart guy, and a physically talented and gifted guy who'll do the little things to improve if he is given the proper time in which to do so. Mark my words: With a full offseason under his belt, Fitz completes 63% of his passes during the 2011 season.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Champjb10

[bobobonators]

Certainly you dont mean the part that Fitz is better two years from now. He was argubly not even better than bradford this year and he was a rookie.

 

The legend of Fitz grows.

 

your anti-Fitz rhetoric is the only thing that is growing. I didn't say the above statement that you quoted, that was someone else...but to now say that Bradford had a better year than Fitz is simply incorrect. There's absolutely no argument:

 

Fitz had 5 more TD's in 2 fewer games; had a higher QB rating; and Fitz YPA was 6.80 compared to Bradford at 5.95. This isn't to diminish Bradford - I like him. But to say that Bradford had "arguably" a better season than Fitz? Based on what? And don't tell me, oh but he was a rookie..I don't care if he was a rookie..he still didn't have a better season. End of story.

 

You dismiss the statement from the other poster that Fitz will be better than Cam two years from now as if the other poster is delusional or something. I'd argue that the only delusion on these boards is to believe it's a guarantee that Cam will put up 25+td's 3,000+ yds, and a +80 rating in the nfl within the next two years...b/c that's what Fitz did this year. Good luck w/ that pipe dream.