2011: 3-4 or 4-3

[Frostbelt City]

The plan to switch from 4-3 to 3-4 has been a crash and burn from the start as the team has recently switched back to their familiar 4-3. It seems as if its working, too.

 

“To be honest with you, it’s not a shift in philosophy,” Gailey told the Buffalo Bills. ”It’s a shift in necessity. We’re not doing what we feel like we need to against the run game. So, we felt like we need to get some bigger people on the field to help us in that respect. It’s a shift in necessity more than it is a shift in philosophy.”

 

I have no idea what 2011 will bring - I'm assuming a shift back to 3-4 if we have the right pieces in place. Here's a distant idea of what we should expect in 2011 if we go 3-4:

 

RE - M. Stroud, S. Johnson

NT - K. Williams, T. Troup

LE - A. Carrington, J. McCargo

 

OLB - A. Moats, P. Woods

MLB - P. Posluszny

MLB - A. Ayodele, FA / DRAFT

OLB - C. Kelsay, A. Maybin

 

Round 2 2011 DRAFT: OLB Akeem Ayers IF AVAILABLE this would be a steal.

 

CB - D. Florence, L. McKelvin

CB - T. McGee, R. Corner

 

I believe these will the starters at CB (perhaps even McKelvin filling for McGee) - but I think we will take a CB somewhere in rounds 1-4 (2011 Draft).

 

FS - J. Byrd, G. Wilson

SS - D. Whitner, B. Scott

 

If Donte is free to go - I feel Wilson and Scott can easily fill in his place. Despite aging, George Wilson is one of favorite players on the team.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Frostbelt City

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

The plan to switch from 4-3 to 3-4 has been a crash and burn from the start as the team has recently switched back to their familiar 4-3. It seems as if its working, too.

 

“To be honest with you, it’s not a shift in philosophy,” Gailey told the Buffalo Bills. ”It’s a shift in necessity. We’re not doing what we feel like we need to against the run game. So, we felt like we need to get some bigger people on the field to help us in that respect. It’s a shift in necessity more than it is a shift in philosophy.”

 

I have no idea what 2011 will bring - I'm assuming a shift back to 3-4 if we have the right pieces in place. Here's a distant idea of what we should expect in 2011 if we go 3-4:

 

RE - M. Stroud, S. Johnson

NT - K. Williams, T. Troup

LE - A. Carrington, J. McCargo

 

OLB - A. Moats, P. Woods

MLB - P. Posluszny

MLB - A. Ayodele, FA / DRAFT

OLB - C. Kelsay, A. Maybin

 

Round 2 2011 DRAFT: OLB Akeem Ayers IF AVAILABLE this would be a steal.

 

CB - D. Florence, L. McKelvin

CB - T. McGee, R. Corner

 

I believe these will the starters at CB (perhaps even McKelvin filling for McGee) - but I think we will take a CB somewhere in rounds 1-4 (2011 Draft).

 

FS - J. Byrd, G. Wilson

SS - D. Whitner, B. Scott

 

If Donte is free to go - I feel Wilson and Scott can easily fill in his place. Despite aging, George Wilson is one of favorite players on the team.

Dwan Edwards is missing from your DE 2 deep, likely ahead of Carrington. McCargo is a goner. Andre Davis will also be back at ILB and starting. Also up in the air is the resigning of Poz, Whitner, Florence and George Wilson.

[Kelly the Dog]

I just posted this topic in another thread about an hour ago, but this is a better place for it. So, to repeat myself...

 

One problem going into the off season and draft is, what defense are we going to play? It started off as a 3-4 and we played horribly as it was new, and we didn't have players used to it, and we didn't have a lot of talent, and we had a rash of injuries. On the fly, Edwards and Gailey went back to a 4-3 for long stretches within games, sometimes it seemed the entire game. We started to improve, and now we seem to fluctuate back and forth, although lately seeing a lot more 3-4 than in the middle of the season.

 

But that begs the problem of what to do with Kyle Williams. He's clearly been our best defensive player this year, and he's clearly not a prototype NT. He can take on double teams and sometimes even beat them, and wreak havoc in the backfield, but he doesn't clog the middle like you normally want your NT to do, so your ILB can stuff the run and blitz up the middle. Poz is not wise to charge into the hole and stuff runners at the LOS because the holes are still too big for the most part, and it's too easy for RBs to slip to the outside where our OLB can't contain for crap.

 

If we ran a 4-3 the obvious choice would be to pair Kyle with a stud DT next to him, but we're somewhere in no man's land. If we get a stud DE that can rush the passer it doesn't do much to help our woeful run defense. Perhaps we've really turned the corner on defense as far as stopping the run, seen in the last couple games. But I doubt it. Miami didnt run well but they chose not to continue running, seemingly for no reason. Teams have often have actually been choosing not to run on us all year where we couldnt stop them. We need LB help, and DL help for sure. Maybe a lot of it, like three and maybe four starters. But I'm not even sure the coaches know what kind of defense we will be playing.

 

Perhaps a guy like Fairley, who seems to be able to play inside or out, would be the choice. If we could get him.

[MexicanBuffaloBill]

First McCargo is gone, we have to wait until the jets game and he is gone...........

 

And definitly we can go for the 3-4 defense.....

RE CARRINGTON

NT K. WILLIAMS

LE FAIRLEY MAYBE OR DAREUS

 

SUBS. SP. JOHNSON, TROUP, STROUD, D. EDWARDS.

 

OLB MOATS

ILB POZ

ILB FA OR DRAFT MAYBE DAVID HARRIS FROM JETS, MAYBE QUAN STURDIVANT FROM THE DRAFT OR MAYBE BATTEN STEP IN FOR THAT SPOT

OLB DRAFT SOMEONE LIKE JUSTIN HOUSTON ON SECOND ROUND OR FRIDAY IN THIRD ROUND

 

SUBS. KELSAY, MAYBUST, AYODELE, A. DAVIS.

 

CB MCKELVIN

CB MCGEE

 

SUBS. FLORENCE, CORNER AND ONE IN THE DRAFT

 

SS WILSON

FS BYRD

 

SUBS. SCOTT AND WHITNER IF HE IS RESIGN HE WILL BE STARTER.....

 

THIS DEFENSE LOOKS LIKE A REAL 3-4 FORMATION AND A GOOD DEFENSE FOR ME......

[Frostbelt City]

Dwan Edwards is missing from your DE 2 deep, likely ahead of Carrington. McCargo is a goner. Andre Davis will also be back at ILB and starting. Also up in the air is the resigning of Poz, Whitner, Florence and George Wilson.

 

How could I forget Dwan Edwards!? Thank you.

 

I think we HAVE to resign Florence and Poz.

[sllib olaffub]

I don't know how much slack G. Edwards will get for his defense - but, there will be some pretty good names out there next year who could come in and be upgrades at the coordinator position... who knows if there is any chance of that happening, but that could change our direction (Cincy's head coach, for instance, will probably be available).

 

Otherwise, I can see Donte Whitner leaving, and another safety and corner being added somewhere between F.A. and the draft. Definitely we need another OLB, ILB, and I'd say another DE - because Stroud should be out of here. So, that is 2 linebackers, a safety, a corner, and a DE - 5 players should be added to this unit next year. I really believe they'll add a DE and 2 linebackers. I don't know about a NT - it just depends how this guy from Oakland looks in practices, and how they feel about Troupe and Williams (whether or not they see moving Kyle out to end, for instance, as a possibility). Again, they might wait on secondary, too, as the front seven is a bigger priority.

My guess, between F.A. and draft, we'll see DE, 2 LB, S, and a Corner added.

[dgrid]

OLB DRAFT SOMEONE LIKE JUSTIN HOUSTON ON SECOND ROUND

 

doubt he'll still be there tho

Edited December 22, 2010 by dgrid

[Frostbelt City]

 

doubt he'll still be there tho

 

Buddy Nix doesn't like college juniors :/

[LabattBlue]

The biggest problem with going to the 3-4 this past off-season, is that they took the best player on defense by a country mile(Kyle Williams), and played him out of position.

 

The 2nd biggest problem...not having a single player on the roster to play OLB in a 3-4.

 

I am not sure if the move to a 3-4 was the DC's, Gailey or a joint decision, but it was doomed to fail from day 1 of training camp.

[Erik]

The biggest problem with going to the 3-4 this past off-season, is that they took the best player on defense by a country mile(Kyle Williams), and played him out of position.

 

The 2nd biggest problem...not having a single player on the roster to play OLB in a 3-4.

 

I am not sure if the move to a 3-4 was the DC's, Gailey or a joint decision, but it was doomed to fail from day 1 of training camp.

 

Either way, getting out of the Cover 2 and getting some big bodies like Troup, Carrington, Edwards, etc. is going to help in the long run whether we run the 3-4, 4-3, or most likely a 3-4/4-3 hybrid which we are basically playing now.

[SuperBills12]

Either way, getting out of the Cover 2 and getting some big bodies like Troup, Carrington, Edwards, etc. is going to help in the long run whether we run the 3-4, 4-3, or most likely a 3-4/4-3 hybrid which we are basically playing now.

 

You know, I was thinking -- what's wrong with going with a hybrid? It'll keep us versatile on defense. Infact it could be a new scheme onto it's own. Do you see any additional advantages in a hybrid approach?

[CardinalScotts]

Why did we forget how slow footed Audre Davis is- I do not want that dude back. I think we'll stay 4-3 or some type of flex

[DC Grid]

I can't figure out why moving KW to DE isn't the obvious move to the Bills coaching staff. Troup was drafted to play NT, if he can't find someone wo can. Next year the front seven should be:

 

LDE: K. Williams, D. Edwards

NT: T. Troup, FA or Draft Pick

RDE: N. Fairley (draft 6th overall), A. Carington

 

OLB: A. Moats, A. Maybin

ILB: P. Poz, R. Torbor

ILB: A. Davis

OLB: C. Kelsay

 

With the LBs supplemented VIA draft and free agency. A dream scenario would be to be able to add an impact OLB in the second round and or a high impact starter like David Harris in FA, but I won't hold my breath. More likely a good DE from the Bills first pick is all we can count on in the form of an instant upgrade to this defense.

[I hate the Bills !]

Personally, I don't see Stroud coming back,as a starter. I think Troupe and Williams take over as DT if we use the 4-3. I see us drafting a both a DT, and DE in the early rounds (1-3)

We also need a OLB cuz there is no way Kelsey can play out there in a 3-4 he was awful, he is way better as a DE in the 4-3. Personally, I think we should run the 4-3 we are more suited for it.

 

Aside from a OT and a QB I see all our picks going defense.

[AmishRifle]

I'd offer a different perspective in answering the question as to what defense we play in 2011 by going back to Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey's comments when they were originally hired. I believe both were convinced that the move to a 3-4 would offer long term success vice the short term stability that playing the 4-3 Cover 2 would offer. Buddy's history with the Chargers and their 3-4 system lends credence to this logic as to his familiarity with the system and the type of players that he scouted and drafted for them.

 

The interesting thing about this is the hybrid system that Gailey and Edwards have implemented throughout the season. I believe the decision was based out of necessity rather than desire. Neither Edwards or Gailey are historically tied to the 3-4 system from their past coaching duties. If you look at Edwards career starting in 2002 you'll see that he's spent alot of time coaching linebackers in the 4-3 system. Gailey ran a 4-3 zone blitz system while at Georgia Tech. In the end I believe you'll see the draft and FA pickups focused on developing the 3-4 but the team will continue running the hybrid throughout the 2011 campaign.

[BobChalmers]

I can't figure out why moving KW to DE isn't the obvious move to the Bills coaching staff. Troup was drafted to play NT, if he can't find someone wo can. Next year the front seven should be:

 

LDE: K. Williams, D. Edwards

NT: T. Troup, FA or Draft Pick

RDE: N. Fairley (draft 6th overall), A. Carington

 

OLB: A. Moats, A. Maybin

ILB: P. Poz, R. Torbor

ILB: A. Davis

OLB: C. Kelsay

 

With the LBs supplemented VIA draft and free agency. A dream scenario would be to be able to add an impact OLB in the second round and or a high impact starter like David Harris in FA, but I won't hold my breath. More likely a good DE from the Bills first pick is all we can count on in the form of an instant upgrade to this defense.

 

So you propose drafting a DE AND moving Williams to DE? And drafting NO LB's????

 

ARGGGGHHHHHH!!!!! WTF!!

 

So Carrington - in your scenario is now already a bust 3rd round pick, and Stroud and Edwards are useless too. Awesome.

 

THEY DO NOT NEED TO DRAFT A DL NEXT YEAR. They used their 2nd and 3rd picks last year on DL. If they have to do it again already, Nix sucks and we shouldn't care who they pick.

 

If Troupe is ready to start at NT, then Williams can play 3-4 DE. Beyond that, Dwan Edwards is plenty good, and we have Carrington, and Stroud did fine.

 

THE PROBLEM with the defense all year has been at LB - particularly at OLB. They've stunk all season at holding the edge - especially Kelsay, who just doesn't look like he can play LB. Moats is looking like he can be part of the answer, but they're still one OLB short. A better option at ILB would be good too.

Edited December 22, 2010 by BobChalmers

[I hate the Bills !]

Players on cut List - John McCargo, Levi Brown, Keith Ellison, Reggie Torbor, Marcus Stroud.

 

 

Players Hanging on by a thread, Donte Whitner, Ashton Youboty, Terrance McGee, Akin Adoyele,

 

Players we should trade - Lee Evans for a 3rd, Aaron Maybin for a 5th(but after or during training camp if he isn't looking good, Three Strikes and your out !)

Edited December 22, 2010 by Philhansonfan

[John from Riverside]

I just think we would make a better defense going back to the 4-3 given the talent available to us....

 

- The key piece here is Troupe....and yes I know Williams has been a stud and i think he will be next year...the question is can Troupe be that immovable rock next to Williams in order to make the defense succeed in a 4-3 allowing Williams to get into the backfield and make plays?

 

and

 

- In order to do this you need athletic linebackers that can get around and cover people

 

then

 

we need to make sure our front 4 gets that pass rush without blitzing all the time.....so you need ends that can get to the QB....like Bowers

[dpberr]

Play the 4-3.

 

Less holes to fill on the roster, and it plays to the strengths we already have. Going 3-4 would require a major investment in the LB position, probably so much so, you couldn't get it all done in one year of the draft and FA unless you sacrificed upgrading other positions.

[UticaBill]

I am at a loss for why we are not developing this hybrid... that is what we have talent for.... Consider that if you run the 3-4 and you run a nickel package then you still have a 4-down base alignment in your packages. I think running more of a combination of both the 4-3 / 3-4 hybrid would not only fit our current personnel but also keep us flexible for the future personnel we acquire as well. My reasoning is that today's NFL base-7 defense is going to eat up 14-15 roster slots.... so either LB's or DL's that can start in both are needed, but backups that only fit one particular style can still be used... in case of injury those roles are expanded but that is what happens anyway.... Think of it as getting one free roster spot since the ability to shift to a base defense with one less player at the position of injury. Of course you need two things to do this, a strong NT and a quality middle linebacker who can play in both.... The downside is that you need 8 starters instead of 7.... but since one starter at each position can be situational is makes it a bit easier to find one.

 

I also think that running a hybrid can make for some very easily disguised blitz packages and personnel groupings. Our safties / outside LBs would work well in some schemes that would appear to be a 4-4-3 to a QB presnap yet be something else when he looks down field 'ala the zone blitz. I could foresee ellison and scott used like that maybe...

 

Then again I am all for single platoon football to return now that these guys are making so much per game!

Edited December 22, 2010 by UticaBill