Hapless Bills Fan Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Carson Palmer. Heisman Trophy winner. #1 overall draft pick 8 seasons ago. Given a year to learn the pro game from the bench under a quality vet. Bengals drafted LT Levi Jones #1 the year b4 Palmer and drafted a quality LG #2 the year they drafted Palmer. On paper, Bengals "did it right" and it paid - they went to the playoffs 2nd and 3rd year Carson started. Overall: Has had 2 winning seasons out of 7 Team to the playoffs 2x, haven't won a playoff game. 151 sacks. 144 TD. 91 INTs. (for comparison, in the same interval, Peyton Manning 101 sacks. 215 TD. 75 INTs. Bengals slacked off on keeping the OL strong and building quality depth. They never have managed to build and maintain a dominant D Anyone think Palmer might have a different W-L and playoff record at NE or Colts? What's my point? 1. that I'm fed up with all that talk as though using a #1 draft pick on a QB is a guarantee of success The QB can't do it alone. He needs a quality OL, he needs quality targets, the team needs decent defense and quality coaching. If we have quality talent evaluation, quality drafting, and a quality rebuilding plan in place, it really doesn't matter which position of need we draft 1st. If we don't, it really doesn't matter if we draft a #1 "franchise QB" or not. 2. thinking the OL has nothing to do with the QB success is just silly. In 2007, Manning threw ~50% more INTs than prev. year. He was also sacked 50% more. Coincidence, I don't think so. A quality OL helps a QB's accuracy. Bradshaw said it of Kelly in the SB, "it's hard to throw completions when you're sitting on your a**" 3. In the end, defense wins championships. A superb offense will give you the chance to drive to the big game- and lose it. (See: Colts, 'Zona, Patriots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Carson Palmer. Heisman Trophy winner. #1 overall draft pick 8 seasons ago. Given a year to learn the pro game from the bench under a quality vet. Bengals drafted LT Levi Jones #1 the year b4 Palmer and drafted a quality LG #2 the year they drafted Palmer. On paper, Bengals "did it right" and it paid - they went to the playoffs 2nd and 3rd year Carson started. Overall: Has had 2 winning seasons out of 7 Team to the playoffs 2x, haven't won a playoff game. 151 sacks. 144 TD. 91 INTs. (for comparison, in the same interval, Peyton Manning 101 sacks. 215 TD. 75 INTs. Bengals slacked off on keeping the OL strong and building quality depth. They never have managed to build and maintain a dominant D Anyone think Palmer might have a different W-L and playoff record at NE or Colts? What's my point? 1. that I'm fed up with all that talk as though using a #1 draft pick on a QB is a guarantee of success The QB can't do it alone. He needs a quality OL, he needs quality targets, the team needs decent defense and quality coaching. If we have quality talent evaluation, quality drafting, and a quality rebuilding plan in place, it really doesn't matter which position of need we draft 1st. If we don't, it really doesn't matter if we draft a #1 "franchise QB" or not. 2. thinking the OL has nothing to do with the QB success is just silly. In 2007, Manning threw ~50% more INTs than prev. year. He was also sacked 50% more. Coincidence, I don't think so. A quality OL helps a QB's accuracy. Bradshaw said it of Kelly in the SB, "it's hard to throw completions when you're sitting on your a**" 3. In the end, defense wins championships. A superb offense will give you the chance to drive to the big game- and lose it. (See: Colts, 'Zona, Patriots) Even though the chances of The Bills taking a QB in the Top 5 remain slim (Luck may not come out, The Bills win a few more games, etc...) I'm hoping beyond hope that they do end up getting Luck or Mallet just to see the anti-QB folks around here implode in anger... There is absolutely no way you can fault a Team for Drafting a QB high assuming that QB is rated where he is Drafted...ESPECIALLY when you've had the QB problems The Bills have had for what? 15 Years now? It's not always going to work out...that's just the way it is...Nothing is guaranteed anyway...They will still need to build the O-line and improve the Defense to win a Championship...That goes without saying...But if they get the chance to take the Top 10 QB, and that QB grades out to be Drafted there, they HAVE to take the Kid...Because if they hit with that QB they win BIG for a decade plus...It's a no-brainer for this Franchise at this time...They have to take that risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billshank Redemption Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 yea your point is pretty dumb and the fact that the lions pass rush was so improved and didnt do **** on our o line really shows we got something. bell is really coming into his own at lt maybe we need a rt but that can come in the second round qb/dt #1 thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabre Bill Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 (edited) Carson Palmer. . . . +1 Even though . . . +1 yea your point is pretty dumb . . . -1 Get taken seriously . . . Try having an opinion without insulting others. Edited November 21, 2010 by Sabre Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 There have been 15 quarterbacks drafted in the top 5 since 1999. Two of them have played in the Super Bowl (Eli/Donovan) How's THAT for a stat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FightinIrishBills Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 yea your point is pretty dumb and the fact that the lions pass rush was so improved and didnt do **** on our o line really shows we got something. bell is really coming into his own at lt maybe we need a rt but that can come in the second round qb/dt #1 thats it I don't think the gist of his argument is that the Bills need to take an O-lineman, but rather, team-building is the most important way to work towards success. In the argument between "defense wins championships" and "the NFL is a QB's league", I think a firm middle-ground is that even the best offenses need a strong defense as a supplement. Look at the Saints. A few years ago, right after they had acquired Drew Brees, they were losing big shoot-out games because they simply didn't have the defense to protect the scoreboard. But once Gregg Williams installed a better scheme, the Saints had a strong, opportunistic D that was able to help lead their team to a championship. It's questionable as to whether or not Fitz can be the championship-type caliber QB that a winning NFL franchise requires (although my hopes are certainly high; I love the guy). But a phenom QB like Andrew Luck isn't a franchise cure-all, either. Ask the Houston Texans how having a high-flying offense without an adequate defense is. We need to build up, and right now I think that starts with the defense. I like Andrew Luck a lot and think he's going to be a stud, but we as fans shouldn't be pinning our franchise success on a guy who hasn't played a down of NFL football yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I don't think the gist of his argument is that the Bills need to take an O-lineman, but rather, team-building is the most important way to work towards success. In the argument between "defense wins championships" and "the NFL is a QB's league", I think a firm middle-ground is that even the best offenses need a strong defense as a supplement. Look at the Saints. A few years ago, right after they had acquired Drew Brees, they were losing big shoot-out games because they simply didn't have the defense to protect the scoreboard. But once Gregg Williams installed a better scheme, the Saints had a strong, opportunistic D that was able to help lead their team to a championship. It's questionable as to whether or not Fitz can be the championship-type caliber QB that a winning NFL franchise requires (although my hopes are certainly high; I love the guy). But a phenom QB like Andrew Luck isn't a franchise cure-all, either. Ask the Houston Texans how having a high-flying offense without an adequate defense is. We need to build up, and right now I think that starts with the defense. I like Andrew Luck a lot and think he's going to be a stud, but we as fans shouldn't be pinning our franchise success on a guy who hasn't played a down of NFL football yet. I'll repeat: since 1999 15 quarterbacks have been drafted in the top 5. TWO of them have since played in a Super Bowl: Donovan McNabb and Eli Manning. So I ask, just where is the correlation between drafting a top 5 quarterback and the type of championship success you're calling for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 There have been 15 quarterbacks drafted in the top 5 since 1999. Two of them have played in the Super Bowl (Eli/Donovan) How's THAT for a stat? You can fit stats to any argument. It's interesting you didn't go back one more year & pick up Peyton Manning. How's this for a filtered stat: In the last 6 Super Bowls, including multiple appearances, 7 of the 12 QBs were 1st rounders, including 4 of 12 top 5 picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 In Carson's defense, he hasn't been the same since reconstructive knee surgery. If he hadn't had the injury he might have more playoff births Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 (edited) I'll repeat: since 1999 15 quarterbacks have been drafted in the top 5. TWO of them have since played in a Super Bowl: Donovan McNabb and Eli Manning. So I ask, just where is the correlation between drafting a top 5 quarterback and the type of championship success you're calling for? It is not surprising that teams which draft in the top five are more likely to have mediocre organizations. Unless the general roster is solid the team is not going to have sustained success. Although Baltimore and Pittsburgh consistently draft after us without a doubt they are better than we are. Success doesn't come down to one particular star draft pick; it is the body of work that results in success. Edited November 21, 2010 by JohnC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 You can fit stats to any argument. It's interesting you didn't go back one more year & pick up Peyton Manning. How's this for a filtered stat: In the last 6 Super Bowls, including multiple appearances, 7 of the 12 QBs were 1st rounders, including 4 of 12 top 5 picks. We're drafting into the top 5, bub. The implications for taking a quarterback with a top FIVE pick far outweigh the cirucmstances surrounding a team like Pittsburgh getting a guy like Big Ben, or Baltimore and Flacco, Your stat is completely misleading and false. Last five Super Bowls and top 5: NO v Indy = Peyton Pitts v AZ = - NYG v NE = Eli Chi v Indy = Peyton Pitts V SEA = - There have been two top 5 quarterbacks in the last 5 years. One of them was drafted twelve years ago. Is there a once in 12 years, nay once in a lifetime quarterback like Peyton Manning in this year's draft, NO! Hence why I didn't find it necessary to go ALL the way back to 1998 to include him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It is not surprising that teams which draft in the top five are more likely to have mediocre organizations. Unless the general roster is solid the team is not going to have sustained success. Although Baltimore and Pittsburgh consistently draft after us without a doubt they are better than we are. Success doesn't come down to one particular star draft pick; it is the body of work that results in success. Arizona 2007 Levi Brown OT (5) New Orleans 2006 Reggie Bush RB (2) Chicago 2005 Cedric Benson RB (4) NYG 2004 Eli Manning QB (1/4) Arizona 2004 Larry Fitz WR (3) Carolina 2002 Peppers DE (2) Arizona 2001 Leonard Davis OL (2) Baltimore 2000 Jammal Lewis RB (5) Philly 1999 Donovan McNabb QB (2) Indy 1999 Edge James RB (4) New Orleans 1999 Ricky Williams RB (5) Okay, so here's a list of teams who have picked in the top 5 since 1999 that have gone to the Super Bowl since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 bottom line the bills need to get elite players in the draft or we'll just be mediocre for the next decade. there have been a lot of teams drafting inside the top five the last 15 years but very few have gone onto win titles...rams, giants, saints, cards off the top of my head but i'm sure there are one or two more. we need the player that will have the best impact on our team for the next decade with our top pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 bottom line the bills need to get elite players in the draft or we'll just be mediocre for the next decade. there have been a lot of teams drafting inside the top five the last 15 years but very few have gone onto win titles...rams, giants, saints, cards off the top of my head but i'm sure there are one or two more. we need the player that will have the best impact on our team for the next decade with our top pick. There you go. Simple strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FightinIrishBills Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'll repeat: since 1999 15 quarterbacks have been drafted in the top 5. TWO of them have since played in a Super Bowl: Donovan McNabb and Eli Manning. So I ask, just where is the correlation between drafting a top 5 quarterback and the type of championship success you're calling for? Hey, I'm with you here. I believe that a QB alone does not make a whole team. Do you (not you specifically, but a general rhetorical question) think that the St. Louis Rams would begin the painful road back to relevancy with Sam Bradford alone? No, they have guys like Chris Long on defense who are bringing them back to respectability. However, I'm not saying that a top-flight QB isn't essential. It's not a causative thing that only 2 of the 15 QBs taken in the top 5 have played in Super Bowls. To put it another way, aside from bombs like JaMarcus Russel et al., in many cases the teams that have drafted these QBs have failed to field a decent team around them. My point is that balance is the key. Right now, even with a "franchise" QB, the Bills wouldn't be there yet because of the downright porous defense they're fielding. It remains to be seen how/if they balance it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Hey, I'm with you here. I believe that a QB alone does not make a whole team. Do you (not you specifically, but a general rhetorical question) think that the St. Louis Rams would begin the painful road back to relevancy with Sam Bradford alone? No, they have guys like Chris Long on defense who are bringing them back to respectability. However, I'm not saying that a top-flight QB isn't essential. It's not a causative thing that only 2 of the 15 QBs taken in the top 5 have played in Super Bowls. To put it another way, aside from bombs like JaMarcus Russel et al., in many cases the teams that have drafted these QBs have failed to field a decent team around them. My point is that balance is the key. Right now, even with a "franchise" QB, the Bills wouldn't be there yet because of the downright porous defense they're fielding. It remains to be seen how/if they balance it out. Fine, you can make the argument that a "top flight quarterback" is necessary. But the evidence shows that the "top flight quarterback" is not found in the top 5 of the draft. For a host of factors, not least of which is the shaky foundation on which most top 5 drafting teams stand. For that reason, and since I don't believe that any quarterback coming into this draft is "top flight" enough to compensate for our, or for any team's shaky foundation, to use our top 5 pick on a quarterback would be a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glory Bound Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 In Carson's defense, he hasn't been the same since reconstructive knee surgery. If he hadn't had the injury he might have more playoff births I was going to make this point...glad you made it. The question is: How much of the decline was due to his injury, & how much was due to other factors? It's difficult to break that ratio down accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 (edited) There have been 15 quarterbacks drafted in the top 5 since 1999. Two of them have played in the Super Bowl (Eli/Donovan) How's THAT for a stat? Pretty freaking amazing, actually - but certainly not enough to stifle the ever-growing 'Luck is God' crowd. Carson Palmer. Heisman Trophy winner. #1 overall draft pick 8 seasons ago. Given a year to learn the pro game from the bench under a quality vet. Bengals drafted LT Levi Jones #1 the year b4 Palmer and drafted a quality LG #2 the year they drafted Palmer. On paper, Bengals "did it right" and it paid - they went to the playoffs 2nd and 3rd year Carson started. Overall: Has had 2 winning seasons out of 7 Team to the playoffs 2x, haven't won a playoff game. 151 sacks. 144 TD. 91 INTs. (for comparison, in the same interval, Peyton Manning 101 sacks. 215 TD. 75 INTs. Bengals slacked off on keeping the OL strong and building quality depth. They never have managed to build and maintain a dominant D Anyone think Palmer might have a different W-L and playoff record at NE or Colts? What's my point? 1. that I'm fed up with all that talk as though using a #1 draft pick on a QB is a guarantee of success The QB can't do it alone. He needs a quality OL, he needs quality targets, the team needs decent defense and quality coaching. If we have quality talent evaluation, quality drafting, and a quality rebuilding plan in place, it really doesn't matter which position of need we draft 1st. If we don't, it really doesn't matter if we draft a #1 "franchise QB" or not. 2. thinking the OL has nothing to do with the QB success is just silly. In 2007, Manning threw ~50% more INTs than prev. year. He was also sacked 50% more. Coincidence, I don't think so. A quality OL helps a QB's accuracy. Bradshaw said it of Kelly in the SB, "it's hard to throw completions when you're sitting on your a**" 3. In the end, defense wins championships. A superb offense will give you the chance to drive to the big game- and lose it. (See: Colts, 'Zona, Patriots) Sullivan, as distasteful as I find him, raises some of the same good points in this morning's column... Link - Palmer's struggles show nothing's for sure at QB - Seventh-round pick Fitzpatrick has been better at times than Bengals' franchise player. Edited November 21, 2010 by The Senator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Pretty freaking amazing, actually - but certainly not enough to stifle the ever-growing 'Luck is God' crowd. Especially since the argument has circled back to "playoffs aren't enough, if you want to win a Super Bowl, you need a quarterback" each and every time. I don't see why this stat would change anybody's mind about that. Oh wait, because Peyton was drafted in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Arizona 2007 Levi Brown OT (5) New Orleans 2006 Reggie Bush RB (2) Chicago 2005 Cedric Benson RB (4) NYG 2004 Eli Manning QB (1/4) Arizona 2004 Larry Fitz WR (3) Carolina 2002 Peppers DE (2) Arizona 2001 Leonard Davis OL (2) Baltimore 2000 Jammal Lewis RB (5) Philly 1999 Donovan McNabb QB (2) Indy 1999 Edge James RB (4) New Orleans 1999 Ricky Williams RB (5) Okay, so here's a list of teams who have picked in the top 5 since 1999 that have gone to the Super Bowl since. All that, and you didn't even point out that Indy and New Orleans got to the Superbowl after they let James and Williams go. So clearly, to get to the Superbowl the Bills need to draft luck in the top 5, then cut him around 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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