Chris Kelsay - the facts

[Dawgg]

He did look out of position on one occasion in game one, but that might have been from lack of experience. As I said above, if he doesn't improve I'm willing to publicly eat crow. However, I think it's just as likely that he evolves into the position and plays it about as steadily as he did DE - average yet durable with good effort. Not great shakes, but hardly terrible.

He's 31. 31 is already old for an outside linebacker.

He's not very good.

On top of that, he's playing a brand new position.

Couple that with the fact that there was no rush to sign him (they could have waited until AFTER the season to see how well he adjusts), this was an absolutely stupid signing.

 

It's just as foolish to say that "I'll wait til the season ends to determine whether this was a good signing" as it is to sign a guy before you have a full season to evaluate him! What is the upside in signing him now? It makes absolutely no from a business standpoint or a football standpoint.

[dave mcbride]

He's 31. 31 is already old for an outside linebacker.

He's not very good.

On top of that, he's playing a brand new position.

Couple that with the fact that there was no rush to sign him (they could have waited until AFTER the season to see how well he adjusts), this was an absolutely stupid signing.

 

It's just as foolish to say that "I'll wait til the season ends to determine whether this was a good signing" as it is to sign a guy before you have a full season to evaluate him! What is the upside in signing him now? It makes absolutely no from a business standpoint or a football standpoint.

Like I said, I think he's OK, and they're not on the hook for much ($2.4 million guaranteed). You were always one of those guys criticizing the Bills for letting average vets walk with no replacement in mind (e.g., Milloy), so I don't see why you're upset about this one. He comes fairly cheap unless he plays well. And if he does play well, he'll be worth it.

[The Big Cat]

He's 31. 31 is already old for an outside linebacker.

He's not very good.

On top of that, he's playing a brand new position.

Couple that with the fact that there was no rush to sign him (they could have waited until AFTER the season to see how well he adjusts), this was an absolutely stupid signing.

 

It's just as foolish to say that "I'll wait til the season ends to determine whether this was a good signing" as it is to sign a guy before you have a full season to evaluate him! What is the upside in signing him now? It makes absolutely no from a business standpoint or a football standpoint.

 

Well, you've determined there's no upside, but you've failed to indicate a single downside.

[GG]

Meanwhile, the truth is, according to these numbers and according to the USA Today data base posted yesterday (link), he's now getting paid approximately the same way as Torbor an Ayodele. So, yeah...

 

 

Meanwhile, the real truth is, according to these numbers and according to the USA Today data base posted yesterday if you look at the total pay he's getting in 2010 ($6 mil), he ranks with the fine company of

 

Crowder, Channing Dolphins $ 6,516,000

Peterson, Julian Lions $ 6,504,810

Bulluck, Keith Titans $ 6,503,120

Urlacher, Brian Bears $ 6,125,000

Briggs, Lance Bears $ 6,100,000

Haralson, Parys 49ers $ 5,737,280

Beason, Jon Panthers $ 5,210,720

Hill, Leroy Seahawks $ 5,003,120

Porter, Joey Dolphins $ 5,000,000

Thornton, David Titans $ 4,506,760

Farwell, Heath Vikings $ 4,505,330

Okeafor, Chike Cardinals $ 4,500,000

Pierce, Antonio Giants $ 4,350,000

Witherspoon, Will Eagles $ 4,004,680

[RuntheDamnBall]

Meanwhile, the real truth is, according to these numbers and according to the USA Today data base posted yesterday if you look at the total pay he's getting in 2010 ($6 mil), he ranks with the fine company of

 

Crowder, Channing Dolphins $ 6,516,000

Peterson, Julian Lions $ 6,504,810

Bulluck, Keith Titans $ 6,503,120

Urlacher, Brian Bears $ 6,125,000

Briggs, Lance Bears $ 6,100,000

Haralson, Parys 49ers $ 5,737,280

Beason, Jon Panthers $ 5,210,720

Hill, Leroy Seahawks $ 5,003,120

Porter, Joey Dolphins $ 5,000,000

Thornton, David Titans $ 4,506,760

Farwell, Heath Vikings $ 4,505,330

Okeafor, Chike Cardinals $ 4,500,000

Pierce, Antonio Giants $ 4,350,000

Witherspoon, Will Eagles $ 4,004,680

You can't honestly tell me you'd rather have any of these guys than Chris Kelsay. This move is bad comedy or hilarious tragedy. I can't decide which.

[dave mcbride]

Meanwhile, the real truth is, according to these numbers and according to the USA Today data base posted yesterday if you look at the total pay he's getting in 2010 ($6 mil), he ranks with the fine company of

 

Crowder, Channing Dolphins $ 6,516,000

Peterson, Julian Lions $ 6,504,810

Bulluck, Keith Titans $ 6,503,120

Urlacher, Brian Bears $ 6,125,000

Briggs, Lance Bears $ 6,100,000

Haralson, Parys 49ers $ 5,737,280

Beason, Jon Panthers $ 5,210,720

Hill, Leroy Seahawks $ 5,003,120

Porter, Joey Dolphins $ 5,000,000

Thornton, David Titans $ 4,506,760

Farwell, Heath Vikings $ 4,505,330

Okeafor, Chike Cardinals $ 4,500,000

Pierce, Antonio Giants $ 4,350,000

Witherspoon, Will Eagles $ 4,004,680

Where did you get these numbers? The USA today link (above) was to 2009, not 2010. At least he's making less than Julian Peterson, who has been benched. Also, his salary for 2010 is skewed by the bonus, which should be prorated, right? (That is, if he lasts to 2011!)

Edited September 30, 2010 by dave mcbride

[The Big Cat]

Meanwhile, the real truth is, according to these numbers and according to the USA Today data base posted yesterday if you look at the total pay he's getting in 2010 ($6 mil), he ranks with the fine company of

 

Crowder, Channing Dolphins $ 6,516,000

Peterson, Julian Lions $ 6,504,810

Bulluck, Keith Titans $ 6,503,120

Urlacher, Brian Bears $ 6,125,000

Briggs, Lance Bears $ 6,100,000

Haralson, Parys 49ers $ 5,737,280

Beason, Jon Panthers $ 5,210,720

Hill, Leroy Seahawks $ 5,003,120

Porter, Joey Dolphins $ 5,000,000

Thornton, David Titans $ 4,506,760

Farwell, Heath Vikings $ 4,505,330

Okeafor, Chike Cardinals $ 4,500,000

Pierce, Antonio Giants $ 4,350,000

Witherspoon, Will Eagles $ 4,004,680

 

And only because of the $2M option bonus he received upon signing the extension. So you're not wrong, you're just cherry-picking.

[GG]

And only because of the $2M option bonus he received upon signing the extension. So you're not wrong, you're just cherry-picking.

 

Excuse me, but I just put the data that YOU provided into context. If you were going to compare Kelsay's pay to Ayodele's salary last year, I felt obliged to put context to the claim. Kelsay is getting paid $6 million this year, with another $4 million in guarantees over the next four years. If the Bills simply signed him to a 1-2 yr extension with a $2 mil signing bonus, then there wouldn't be a peep. But he's getting $6 million to be an above average UFA

Edited September 30, 2010 by GG

[Dawgg]

Well, you've determined there's no upside, but you've failed to indicate a single downside.

The fact that there is no upside, in and of itself, is enough of a downside.

 

Why not let him hit the open market and see what he fetches? I'd guarantee he won't fetch that kind of coin on the open market. The Bills could have saved money by signing him after the season and also allowed him to settle into the position to see how well (or poorly) he plays.

 

This organization is a mess and I'm convinced this was a Ralph Wilson call. No way Buddy Nix wanted this to happen.

[The Big Cat]

The fact that there is no upside, in and of itself, is enough of a downside.

 

Why not let him hit the open market and see what he fetches? I'd guarantee he won't fetch that kind of coin on the open market. The Bills could have saved money by signing him after the season and also allowed him to settle into the position to see how well (or poorly) he plays.

 

This organization is a mess and I'm convinced this was a Ralph Wilson call. No way Buddy Nix wanted this to happen.

 

Because we simply can't afford to lose anymore linebackers, let alone reliable (though not necessarily game changing) ones.

 

Yes, he's slow, and he sucks in coverage, but he's stout as whoa against the run. C'mon. Four head coaches, eight years, 113 appearances in 115 games, the coaches clearly see something in the guy that we don't. And for that reason, he's not nearly as terrible as you and other posters here make him out to be.

 

Trent was. And there was an uproar when he left. Do the math.

[BADOLBILZ]

Like I said, I think he's OK, and they're not on the hook for much ($2.4 million guaranteed). You were always one of those guys criticizing the Bills for letting average vets walk with no replacement in mind (e.g., Milloy), so I don't see why you're upset about this one. He comes fairly cheap unless he plays well. And if he does play well, he'll be worth it.

 

We get it, your argument is "hey, he's good, he's worth whatever money they pay him". You are missing the point. He is terrible. What games are you watching?

 

BTW, Milloy continues to play and do so adequately for better teams than the Bills(Seattle currently). Whitner also plays adequately. The only downside for the Bills was the loss of one very early first round pick that they used on Whitner to replace Milloy. By Bills standards, that was an "average" series of transactions.

[inkman]

He isn't a hole. Learn what a hole is guys.

I have...

[Kultarr]

He did look out of position on one occasion in game one, but that might have been from lack of experience. As I said above, if he doesn't improve I'm willing to publicly eat crow. However, I think it's just as likely that he evolves into the position and plays it about as steadily as he did DE - average yet durable with good effort. Not great shakes, but hardly terrible.

One occasion? Wow, that's being extremely charitable. (As is giving somebody $2.4M as "chump change".)

[pimp on da' net]

but if you are going ot make remarks about "all OLBs are fast" then you better get a look at the "unsung" OLBs in great 3-4s across the league...

 

Since you put it out there, check the going rate for the "unsung" LB's. These player are of value, I agree but there salaries are minimal in comparison to the speed rushing LB's. I asked with the time served with this organization, you'd think the FO would have agreed on an op to match any FA offer in the rare instant another team would have and let the market determine his value.I'm sorry this brings back the whole DJ contract extension, just another example of FA ineptitude.

[Orton's Arm]

Because we simply can't afford to lose anymore linebackers, let alone reliable (though not necessarily game changing) ones.

 

Yes, he's slow, and he sucks in coverage, but he's stout as whoa against the run. C'mon. Four head coaches, eight years, 113 appearances in 115 games, the coaches clearly see something in the guy that we don't. And for that reason, he's not nearly as terrible as you and other posters here make him out to be.

 

Trent was. And there was an uproar when he left. Do the math.

I don't fully share your conclusions.

 

If a coach decides to start Kelsay it doesn't mean the coach thinks he's a good player. It just means the coach thinks he's better than his backup.

 

You could turn your attention to the general manager, and ask why, if Kelsay was so bad, no one tried to replace him. But the Bills over the last ten years haven't exactly been bursting with Pro Bowl talent. There were plenty of other needs for general managers to focus on, as well as plenty of shiny McGahee/Parrish-style players for them to draft if they didn't feel like addressing the team's many needs.

 

That said, I'll grant that Kelsay is a decent player as a LDE in a 4-3. Defensive linemen in a 4-3 aren't supposed to be jacks of all trades; and Kelsay was reasonably good at not being pushed around by offensive linemen on running plays. Given the scheme and the circumstances, that was enough.

 

But the whole idea behind a 3-4 is to create unpredictability for the other team's offense. The source of your unpredictability is supposed to be your linebackers. On running plays, you obviously want guys good against the run. But just because Kelsay is good against the run at the line of scrimmage does not necessarily mean he's good in space, where speed is at more of a premium. On passing downs, you presumably want your linebackers to either be dropping back into coverage or rushing the quarterback. Kelsay can do neither.

 

Back in 2000, the Bills offered a high dollar, multi-year contract extension to John Fina. Needless to say, Fina accepted. The next year when TD took over, he immediately released Fina. Fina ended up signing with another team at the league minimum. There were strong similarities between Fina's extension and Kelsay's: both players had been drafted by the Bills, both were below-average starters, both had had a lot of starts over their respective careers, and both contract extensions were derided by most of the Bills' fan base.

 

As to why this team sometimes acts that way, I honestly don't know. What I do know is that the Bills would overpay for below-average players like Fina, only to let their best players--such as Winfield--leave in free agency. More recently, Marv lavished large sums on guys like Langston Walker, Peerless Price, Larry Triplett, Melvin Fowler, and others not worthy of being starters, while letting Jabari Greer leave in free agency.

 

Right now, I as a fan am looking for evidence that the front office knows what it's doing. I'm not going to simply assume that the front office's decisions are better than the decisions our more intelligent and knowledgeable fans would have made. Over the last ten years, that kind of assumption would have been in error.

 

I've seen some things from this front office which have given me hope and confidence in the future. But I've also seen some things which at least initially appear to have been errors. The Cornell Green signing was obviously an error. At that point, you may as well just burn the $3 million a year. At least then you wouldn't have to deal with the idea that you're inflating Green's bank account. At first glance, Kelsay's extension brings back memories of the one the Bills gave Fina. Hopefully we won't see many more of these types of moves in the future.

Edited October 1, 2010 by Edwards' Arm

[Bill from NYC]

>>>> That said, I'll grant that Kelsay is a decent player as a LDE in a 4-3.<<<<<

 

I will not "grant" this, but this is merely my opinion.

 

 

>>>>>More recently, Marv lavished large sums on guys like Langston Walker, Peerless Price, Larry Triplett, Melvin Fowler, and others not worthy of being starters, while letting Jabari Greer leave in free agency.<<<<<

 

Don't forget Dockery. The Dick Levy regime thought little of the importance of linemen in terms of the draft. They used their best resources on defensive backs and running backs, and made poor decisions at every other position. They were idiocy defined which although a given, is a weird thing to say about Ivy League grads.

 

>>>>>Right now, I as a fan am looking for evidence that the front office knows what it's doing. I'm not going to simply assume that the front office's decisions are better than the decisions our more intelligent and knowledgeable fans would have made.<<<<<

 

What was your opinion of the Spiller selection? Seriously.

[Orton's Arm]

What was your opinion of the Spiller selection? Seriously.

I have mixed feelings about it. As far as I'm concerned, using early picks on RBs is bad. Especially for a team like the Bills, for a host of reasons.

 

But taking the best player available--someone with the best potential to be a difference-maker--is good. From what I gather, Spiller was rated significantly higher than any other player available when the Bills picked.

 

We already have guys who can run the football. Even if Spiller is an improvement over them in that area, it probably won't be enough of an improvement to justify using the 9th overall pick. If that pick does end up making sense, it's going to largely be because of what Spiller can bring to the passing game. He needs to be a receiving threat, much like Thurman Thomas was for the Bills. If he becomes one of the best running backs in the league at pass receiving, if he excels at blitz pickup, and if he has top-10 running skills, and if he has a long career with the Bills, it will have been a successful pick. I realize that's a lot of ifs, but I also think Spiller is a very talented player who might actually pull it off.

Edited October 1, 2010 by Edwards' Arm

[Bill from NYC]

I have mixed feelings about it. As far as I'm concerned, using early picks on RBs is bad. Especially for a team like the Bills, for a host of reasons.

 

But taking the best player available--someone with the best potential to be a difference-maker--is good. From what I gather, Spiller was rated significantly higher than any other player available when the Bills picked.

 

We already have guys who can run the football. Even if Spiller is an improvement over them in that area, it probably won't be enough of an improvement to justify using the 9th overall pick. If that pick does end up making sense, it's going to largely be because of what Spiller can bring to the passing game. He needs to be a receiving threat, much like Thurman Thomas was for the Bills. If he becomes one of the best running backs in the league at pass receiving, if he excels at blitz pickup, and if he has top-10 running skills, and if he has a long career with the Bills, it will have been a successful pick. I realize that's a lot of ifs, but I also think Spiller is a very talented player who might actually pull it off.

 

Make no mistake, you are one of the best football posters in the history of TSW imo. That said, I think that by your standards, your response was a bit wishy-washy.

 

Bro, are you glad that the Bills selected Spiller in lieu of another player and/or trading down?

[Mickey]

Alright - So I haven't posted in awhile but a few things are bugging me.

 

1.) I was a huge Kelsay hater - the guy never gets sacks, he was a "bust" for a 2nd round DE, etc. but then I started to look at him as a DE and not the second coming of aaron schobel. I recommend you all do the same. The guy is, and has been, our best DE against the run since he got here. he is going to continue to be solid against the run. This is no different then having a guy like Dwan Edwards brought in. both are solid all around players who will generate a small pass rush, but who excel at stopping the run.

 

2.) I hate as much as anyone that he is asked to drop into coverage. This is to the fault of the DC, and we can only hope it will change once they get a respectable LB that can cover TEs. For the time being, Bryan Scott is sadly our answer. Is he a pass covering LB? not at all. He is, however, an everydown player who reacts well and diagnoses plays. His weakness is, and will be, speed. If the DC continues to use him in positions as a stand up 3-4 outside backer that is used to rush the passer and contain RBs, he will be a solid, every down player. However, if he is used at anypoint inthe future to COVER a TE or a RB out in the flat, then shame on them. Note - The bills under Jauron were NOTORIOUS for placing Schobel and Kelsay and Denny back in coverage positions. this made no sense then and makes no sense now.

 

3.) His weaknesses? speed. Pure and simple he isn't a speed rusher or a pass covering LB. He is a run stopper and a containment player who also plays on special teams (yes watch and he actually is in there for plays).

 

Is he worth 6mil? It's not much of a raise (250k/yr) from his last deal so at the risk of creating another hole on our team its not a horrible move. We are a team with a LOT of needs. He is a solid contributor and losing him is just creating more holes we must fill in the draft and FA.

 

finally, after I get flamed at, don't take my word but look at what Scouts INC has to say about him:

 

"He will be an outside linebacker in the Bills' 3-4 defense. He is a player who is used to playing with his hand on the ground. Kelsay is a good athlete, however, and he should be able to make the adjustment. He shows very good initial quickness as an up-the-field player. He is small but uses his hands well to keep blockers off his body. He shows good lateral speed and range. Kelsay might struggle early versus the run as it could be tough for him to diagnose as a stand-up LB."

 

One of the things that makes the 3-4 work is you don't know where the pressure is going to come from. If Kelsay can't cover and always has to rush the passer, something he doesn't do very well at all, then our defense is hamstrung. If we are going to stick with the 3-4, Kelsay has eventually got to go. We can't turn over the whole defensive roster in one year but eventually, we need to fill it with players who the right skill set for the 3-4.

[Orton's Arm]

Make no mistake, you are one of the best football posters in the history of TSW imo. That said, I think that by your standards, your response was a bit wishy-washy.

 

Bro, are you glad that the Bills selected Spiller in lieu of another player and/or trading down?

Thanks for the compliment. And I think the same about you. Back when you did them, your posts outlining your thoughts about the game were the first thing I'd seek out.

 

In answer to your question: the Spiller pick could be the opening move of a well-conceived, well-executed strategy. Or it could be more of the same shortsightedness we've seen in the past. It's too early to tell which it is until Nix has had a few more drafts with which to work.

 

An offense has to have a good offensive line, and has to have a good quarterback, if it's going to be among the better offenses in the league. (There may be one or two exceptions to that--I've heard Green Bay's offensive line isn't very good--but it would be a serious mistake for someone building a team to rely on such extremely rare exceptions. There's also the question about how all those hits Rogers takes will affect his longevity.)

 

Over the next two or three years, Nix needs to build the offensive line into a reliable, above-average unit or better, and he needs to find a franchise quarterback for the Bills. If he does both those things, there will be every opportunity for Spiller to be for the Bills what Thurman Thomas once was, or what LaDanian Tomlinson had been for the Chargers. But if Nix fails to do those things, Spiller shouldn't necessarily expect to encounter much better circumstances than the ones he found in the Miami game.