Final Word on Evans(#1?) vs Edwards

[PDaDdy]

"In the 33 games with Edwards at quarterback, Evans has 105 catches for 1,560 yards and seven touchdowns. In 69 games with other QBs, he has 235 catches for 3,796 yards and 32 TDs. Draw your own conclusions."

 

Jerry Sullivan - Buffalo News

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/columns/jerry-sullivan/article189585.ece

 

 

Folks look at what that boils down to:

 

With Edwards 1 TD every 4.71 games

 

Without Edwards 1 TD every 2.16 games

 

That means no matter WHO else the QB is, Evans scores TDs at more than twice the rate he does with Rob Johnson v.20. Evans puts up #1 numbers when he has a competent QB. I say "competent" because the other guys Evans has played with were not all stars unless you think Losman, Holcomb, Fitzpatrick and Brohm were PROBOWLERS.

 

Problem is Edwards sucks more than twice as bad when it comes to scoring TDs with Evans. Please, please, please put this one to rest as Evans gets the job done with even the most run of the mill QBs around. Don't blame Trent's lack of success on #83.

Edited September 15, 2010 by PDaDdy

[Buffalo Billy]

Interesting, I always thought it seemed Trent was afraid to just trust Lee to haul in anything but 100% sure fire impossible to miss pass situations.

[pmacla]

Lee Evans is overrated, best Bills have but Lee Evans = Peerless Price IMHO

[b stein 22]

Lee Evans is overrated, best Bills have but Lee Evans = Peerless Price IMHO

The reason you think he is overrated is because he has Trent Edward throwing to him. Lee might be open but Edwards wont throw to him for some reason. We had TO on our team and Trent would not throw to him.

[The Jokeman]

For what it's worth I just did some stat analysis myself and was able to determine that the Bills O in the 32 games started by Trent Edwards with Lee Evans scored an average of 18.78 points per game and in comparison when other QBs started the other 65 games the Bills offense scored an average of 18.92 points per game. So Trent doesn't go to Lee as much as other guys but appears doesn't impact how many points on the board. Or more simply perhaps Lee Evans isn't as much of a difference maker at WR as Mr. Sullivan makes him out to be.

Edited September 15, 2010 by The Jokeman

[DrDawkinstein]

The reason you think he is overrated is because he has Trent Edward throwing to him. Lee might be open but Edwards wont throw to him for some reason. We had TO on our team and Trent would not throw to him.

 

agreed, Lee was open on a LOT of replays during last week's game. and when he wasnt wide open, he was open enough to where a real QB would at least throw the ball and give him a chance to make a play.

 

Edwards is coming down with Losman-itis, where they have to see a player WIDE OPEN (a la the blown coverage on Roscoe's TD) before he will throw it. He will NOT throw it to a spot, and doesnt know how to make reads and anticipations to hit WRs who are getting open.

[Tortured Soul]

That means no matter WHO else the QB is, Evans scores TDs at more than twice the rate he does with Rob Johnson v.20. Evans puts up #1 numbers when he has a competent QB. I say "competent" because the other guys Evans has played with were not all stars unless you think Losman, Holcomb, Fitzpatrick and Brohm were PROBOWLERS.

 

Problem is Edwards sucks more than twice as bad when it comes to scoring TDs with Evans. Please, please, please put this one to rest as Evans gets the job done with even the most run of the mill QBs around. Don't blame Trent's lack of success on #83.

 

Two points;

When it's not Edwards, Evans averages 54 catches, 880 yards and 7.4 TDs per 16 games. Debatable whether that is No. 1 receiver numbers.

 

Also, Evans best year came in 2004 with Drew Bledsoe, who was a multiple Pro Bowler, even if he didn't make it that year, and threw for over 40,000 yards in his career. So, I don't think it's fair to conclude that any of those QBs are better for Evans than Edwards. Let's see the numbers broken down further.

[H2o]

Lee Evans is overrated, best Bills have but Lee Evans = Peerless Price IMHO

You can't be serious, right? Evans is far better than Peer-less ever could dream of being. Put Evans with Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Schaub, Rodgers, Cutler, or McNabb and he's making the Pro Bowl year in and year out. Heck put him on any team that has an OL to give the QB time, and that QB is atleast serviceable, he would have over a 1,000 yards and 8 TD's every year.

Edited September 15, 2010 by H2o

[Rico]

I don't think Evans is a true #1 WR, but I think it's debatable. No way in hell though that Stevie Johnson looks like a #2 right now, I think that may be part of the problem that is being overlooked after Week 1.

[wardigital]

If I double the numbers so that it's more comparable, (66 games instead of 33), Evans would average 210 catches for 3,120 yards, which is only slightly worse than all of the other Bills quarterbacks combined with 3 games to spare.

 

But this is sophomoric analysis from Sullivan, which is par for his particular course. Lee Evans has only really had one season that would compare to most team's #1s, and that was edit: *not* with Bledsoe, rather JP Losman

 

I don't think many people are saying Edwards is as good as Bledsoe, but to now begin to subtly imply that Trent Edwards is worse than every single quarterback we've thrown out there since 2004 (Evans first year) is rich.

Edited September 15, 2010 by wardigital

[....lybob]

I rate Evans in the low twenties as a #1 WR- I think our #2 WR, TEs, OL and QB rank worse than that, our best offensive position is RB but I don't think either Jackson or Lynch are top ten maybe not even top 15 and we really don't know about Spiller at all- all in all we are woeful in offensive talent and really talent overall- the kicking team and maybe a few DBs could be considered top 10 but that's about it.

[reddogblitz]

Edwards is coming down with Losman-itis, where they have to see a player WIDE OPEN (a la the blown coverage on Roscoe's TD) before he will throw it. He will NOT throw it to a spot, and doesnt know how to make reads and anticipations to hit WRs who are getting open.

Maybe, but I'm thinking he's coming down with Rob Johnson-itis. You know, drop back and stand there until he has to escape the pocket. Then run for his life and throw it away right before he goes out bounds. Saw Rob do it many, many times and saw Trent do it several times Sunday.

 

When will the coaches get it that he's just not very good in games? Evidently pretty darn good in practice, but not in games. Practices don't count, games do.

 

Trent appears to be in mid season form but we didn't even get the benefit of a few good games first like every other year.

Edited September 15, 2010 by reddogblitz

[wardigital]

I had this all charted out for you, and then accidentally closed my browser, because I'm brilliant. So here:

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EvanLe00/gamelog/

 

Of Lee Evans top ten performances, based on receiving yards, JP Losman was the QB for 7 of them. Edwards, Bledsoe and Kelly Holcomb were each QB for 1.

 

What does this tell us? Not much, necessarily, except Losman was good for Evans career, but perhaps bad for everyone else in Buffalo. And, at Losman's worst, he still threw the ball down field.

 

Trent Edwards actually had a second game in the top 10 of Evans most productive, except JP Losman threw Evans TD reception in that game, and since scoring is the name of the game, I rewarded that game to Losman. So it could be 6-2-1-1, or 6-1-1-push, however you want to look at it.

[Conch]

Lee was fine with TE at QB until Lee signed his fat contract. Since then Lee has decided he does not have to play hard, go over the middle or fight for the ball. It is easy to blame the QB for Lee not catching as many balls but maybe some blame should go to Lee.

 

As for Lee & Peerless comparison -- they both signed for the money, then their drive went out with the honey. Neither played the same again. Dump Lee now. David Nelson can catch 30 yards a game.

[Clippers of Nfl]

Maybe, but I'm thinking he's coming down with Rob Johnson-itis. You know, drop back and stand there until he has to escape the pocket. Then run for his life and throw it away right before he goes out bounds. Saw Rob do it many, many times and saw Trent do it several times Sunday.

 

When will the coaches get it that he's just not very good in games? Evidently pretty darn good in practice, but not in games. Practices don't count, games do.

 

Trent appears to be in mid season form but we didn't even get the benefit of a few good games first like every other year.

funny and not funny at the same time! doh!

[Cash]

Lee was fine with TE at QB until Lee signed his fat contract. Since then Lee has decided he does not have to play hard, go over the middle or fight for the ball. It is easy to blame the QB for Lee not catching as many balls but maybe some blame should go to Lee.

 

As for Lee & Peerless comparison -- they both signed for the money, then their drive went out with the honey. Neither played the same again. Dump Lee now. David Nelson can catch 30 yards a game.

 

How is Lee supposed to fight for the ball? Hang around behind the line of scrimmage and try to rip it away from Spiller or Jackson?

[sharper802]

I don't think Evans is a true #1 WR, but I think it's debatable. No way in hell though that Stevie Johnson looks like a #2 right now, I think that may be part of the problem that is being overlooked after Week 1.

Agreed. Parrish should be starting at number 2 WR.

[sharper802]

Everyone wants Trent to throw the Ball to Evans and let him battle for it. How tall is Evans 5'11" on a good day? Does he strike you as a WR that would muscle the ball away from a defender? He has very good hands but he is just not that type of WR. Fade patterns have to be perfectly thrown to him and actually caught on a much steeper downward trajectory. You can't throw a jump ball pattern in the end zone to him. It is BS to say he won't go over the middle. He doesn't design or call the pass plays. He doesn't strike me as a guy that wants to avoid contact but perhaps due to his smaller frame the coaches have limited his crossing routes.

I don't have any idea how open or covered Evans was on any of the pass plays nor do any fans have a clue where the ball was supposed to be thrown. And of the deep balls that were to go to Evans how many times was it a pass rush or a Trentative issue. No one knows. If pass interference does not happen on that one long ball and it is caught for a huge gain or a TD no one would be talking about this. The Bills got jobbed on that non-call. Evans only had a step on the DB and Trent still put it up there.

Why not give Gailey's offense a few more games? And honestly wouldn't you just play 8 in the box and the other 3 defenders on Evans to stop the Bills. Steve Johnson is a joke and the TE situation is even worse.

[PDaDdy]

For what it's worth I just did some stat analysis myself and was able to determine that the Bills O in the 32 games started by Trent Edwards with Lee Evans scored an average of 18.78 points per game and in comparison when other QBs started the other 65 games the Bills offense scored an average of 18.92 points per game. So Trent doesn't go to Lee as much as other guys but appears doesn't impact how many points on the board. Or more simply perhaps Lee Evans isn't as much of a difference maker at WR as Mr. Sullivan makes him out to be.

 

Do you have any of the details to the stats your offering as fact? I am curious how you found stats on points just scored by the offense as opposed to points scored by the team which include special teams and defensive scores. I'm always on the look out for good sources of information to data mine for trends and "truths" that may shake out of the numbers.

 

I suspect you may actually be using team scoring as opposed to just offensive scoring. Not that it is a relevant comparison to a single WRs performance as it relates to one particular QB being the starter or not. Even if the "real" numbers support your claim the success of the team is not the focus of this post. The point is that the bogus claim that Lee Evans isn't a number #1 WR as an excuse for Trent's poor performance is completely unfounded.

 

You can't be serious, right? Evans is far better than Peer-less ever could dream of being. Put Evans with Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Schaub, Rodgers, Cutler, or McNabb and he's making the Pro Bowl year in and year out. Heck put him on any team that has an OL to give the QB time, and that QB is atleast serviceable, he would have over a 1,000 yards and 8 TD's every year.

 

He has had basically that with every QB that wasn't named Trent Edwards. This incredible thing is he has done it almost exclusively with guys that wouldn't even be #3's on any other team.

 

Two points;

When it's not Edwards, Evans averages 54 catches, 880 yards and 7.4 TDs per 16 games. Debatable whether that is No. 1 receiver numbers.

 

Also, Evans best year came in 2004 with Drew Bledsoe, who was a multiple Pro Bowler, even if he didn't make it that year, and threw for over 40,000 yards in his career. So, I don't think it's fair to conclude that any of those QBs are better for Evans than Edwards. Let's see the numbers broken down further.

 

You do realize that Edwards has been playing for 8 years plus and that one year with a again QB at the end of his career isn't going to skew the numbers to the point where your statement holds water? As I just mentioned in a previous reply he did this without a legit #2 opposite him almost every year. Get a grip man. The guy is solid and would have been MONEY if he hadn't had the misfortune of being drafted by the bills.

 

I rate Evans in the low twenties as a #1 WR- I think our #2 WR, TEs, OL and QB rank worse than that, our best offensive position is RB but I don't think either Jackson or Lynch are top ten maybe not even top 15 and we really don't know about Spiller at all- all in all we are woeful in offensive talent and really talent overall- the kicking team and maybe a few DBs could be considered top 10 but that's about it.

 

I would really like to see the 19 WR you rank above Lee Evans and also include the guy that throws them the rock....or doesn't throw him the rock in Lee's case.

 

Maybe, but I'm thinking he's coming down with Rob Johnson-itis. You know, drop back and stand there until he has to escape the pocket. Then run for his life and throw it away right before he goes out bounds. Saw Rob do it many, many times and saw Trent do it several times Sunday.

 

When will the coaches get it that he's just not very good in games? Evidently pretty darn good in practice, but not in games. Practices don't count, games do.

 

Trent appears to be in mid season form but we didn't even get the benefit of a few good games first like every other year.

 

Outstanding observation. I began calling Edwards Rob Johnson v2.0 in another thread.

 

Everyone wants Trent to throw the Ball to Evans and let him battle for it. How tall is Evans 5'11" on a good day? Does he strike you as a WR that would muscle the ball away from a defender? He has very good hands but he is just not that type of WR. Fade patterns have to be perfectly thrown to him and actually caught on a much steeper downward trajectory. You can't throw a jump ball pattern in the end zone to him. It is BS to say he won't go over the middle. He doesn't design or call the pass plays. He doesn't strike me as a guy that wants to avoid contact but perhaps due to his smaller frame the coaches have limited his crossing routes.

I don't have any idea how open or covered Evans was on any of the pass plays nor do any fans have a clue where the ball was supposed to be thrown. And of the deep balls that were to go to Evans how many times was it a pass rush or a Trentative issue. No one knows. If pass interference does not happen on that one long ball and it is caught for a huge gain or a TD no one would be talking about this. The Bills got jobbed on that non-call. Evans only had a step on the DB and Trent still put it up there.

Why not give Gailey's offense a few more games? And honestly wouldn't you just play 8 in the box and the other 3 defenders on Evans to stop the Bills. Steve Johnson is a joke and the TE situation is even worse.

 

Whose talking about jump balls? I just want Trent to throw Lee the ball like every other QB Lee has played with that had him scoring almost a TD every other game. Who cares about jump balls? Hit him when he is open like all the other QBs did.

 

What does this tell us?

 

I agree other than Lee basically hasn't had any good games with Trent at the helm.

[Orton's Arm]

I looked at the receiving stats for the game, and found the following:

 

Player_________Receptions________Yards

Steve Johnson______3_______________40

Roscoe Parrish_____2_______________35

Lee Evans__________4_______________34

D. Nelson__________3_______________22

Spiller____________4_______________8

Fred Jackson_______2_______________0

 

At least at first glance, those numbers seem about as favorable to Steve Johnson as they do to any other receiver on the field that day for the Bills. However, I watched the game only once, on television, and did not pay special attention to Johnson's play. I'd appreciate comments about Johnson's play from someone who saw the game in-person, or who watched it multiple times in an effort to pay special attention to the performance of players like Johnson.

Edited September 16, 2010 by Edwards' Arm