Good McShay article on the Draft

[billsfan_34]

Really...when?

Before he got injured...go back and look at the games. he was getting torched left and right. Good special teamer..thats about it.

[billsfan_34]

I completely agree man. McKelvin was turning into a dynamic player for us both defensively and on special teams.

 

I'm REALLY looking forwart to seeing him back in our secondary alongside Byrd!

Byrds a Safety, Mckelvin is a corner. Just sayin.

[bobobonators]

Really...he was getting turned around inside out!

 

Right.

[bobobonators]

Byrds a Safety, Mckelvin is a corner. Just sayin.

 

You really are a freaking tool aren't you. Alongside as in they both play in the secondary douchebag. Holy jesus you're dense.

[JPS]

He forgot Maybin. Interesting he throws McKelvin in there.

Does anyone really think Maybin is a bust because he sat and watched this year? Pulling the the plug on TE is borderline early, but mayeb understandable. Dismissing Maybin at this point is insane.

[billsfan_34]

You really are a freaking tool aren't you. Alongside as in they both play in the secondary douchebag. Holy jesus you're dense.

Ha..whatever dude..calm down. I think I understand they all play in the secondary. Besides, mckelvin blows. Now take a qualude or a xanex...!@#$ chop.

[billsfan_34]

Right.

Oh but he was. We can all roll our eyes next year when he is riding pine cuz he sucks so bad.

[billsfan_34]

Right.

Sorry i hurt your itty bitty feelings.

[Steely Dan]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/ins...tory?id=4907951

 

An NFL scout recently told me, "Even after all these years, we don't have a Moneyball formula for success. But we are getting closer." Until then, the NFL draft will remain about as unscientific as any sports endeavor. As long as scouts and GMs have to scramble to evaluate roughly 1,000 college football players at four different levels, every now and then a Pierre Garçon (Mount Union, sixth-round pick) is going to have more catches in one season than a Mike Williams (USC, first round) will have in a career.

 

So what's that scout talking about? Well, just because there's no secret to guaranteeing a sweet draft doesn't mean there aren't some must-follow tendencies that can help avoid disasters. As we head to the scouting combine, which starts on Feb. 24, then on to draft day, here are some mistakes the know-it-all suits shouldn't make. (But most assuredly will.)

 

1. They will ignore the big four. At the top of the draft, four crucial positions -- QB, offensive tackle, cornerback and pass- rusher -- should trump all others. It's a supply- and-demand thing. As the league's emphasis on passing puts those positions at an ever-greater premium, the elite talent pool at those spots remains basically the same. Notice wide receivers aren't included on this A-list. You can get them anytime. Two of this season's top five wideouts -- Miles Austin and Wes Welker -- weren't even drafted. On the other hand, all five of 2009's leaders in QB ratings were among the first 33 picks. Catchers depend on passers, not the other way around.

 

Look at this season's Super Bowl teams. At the big-four positions, the Saints and Colts combined to produce five Pro Bowlers. The average draft position of those guys was 44; two were first-rounders, two others early second-rounders. The teams generated nine more Pro Bowlers from the other positions. Those guys were drafted, on average, with the 80th pick, not including Colts center Jeff Saturday, who was undrafted. The Chargers (five of their past six first-rounders played one of the big-four positions) get it. The Lions (four wideouts and a linebacker in the top 10 between 2003 and 2007) don't.

 

So while All-America safety Eric Berry is tempting, the St. Louis Rams shouldn't think twice about snatching a defensive tackle, Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, at No. 1. A combo of Suh and, say, LSU safety Chad Jones (a likely second-round pick) will win more games than Berry and, say, second-round DT Dan Williams will.

 

Marc Serota/Getty ImagesIs it wise to take a defensive tackle like Gerald McCoy with your number one pick?

 

2. They will be seduced by looks. Scouts, GMs, even esteemed members of the media get too wrapped up in 40 times and 225-pound bench press reps. In many cases -- see: Smith, Akili; Jones, Matt; Gholston, Vernon -- superhuman physical gifts make usually rational minds race with possibilities. It's why you'll hear about Tim Tebow playing H-back soon. Too often, scouts think a freakish body automatically translates into freakish success. It doesn't.

 

I've heard the buzz as it happens. Did you see that?! The furor overwhelms reasonable analysis. Mistakes and shortcomings that pop up on film or the police blotter fade into the background. Coaches are especially optimistic about being able to turn raw athletic ability into refined production. They think they can take special athletes and coach 'em to become special football players. Good luck with that. Meanwhile, guys like Clay Matthews and Austin Collie slide down the draft board, then make an immediate impact. The same arc will be followed this year by Texas WR Jordan Shipley and Penn State DT Jared Odrick. Neither will be a combine terror. They'll be happy to make their noise in the NFL.

 

3. They will pay no mind to minds. As one scout told me recently, "You can't win with dumb players in the NFL anymore." This Jeff George-inspired rule isn't so much about human intelligence as football intelligence, not book-smart guys but playbook-smart guys.

 

And yet book-smart evaluators still pay too much attention to academic All-America teams and the Wonderlic test. A 4.0 GPA or 40 on the Wonderlic doesn't necessarily mean a player will be able to read a screen or outfox a defender. Savvy GMs know the least-seen part of a player's combine performance, the personal interview, is the most important gauge. To be fair, more front office people are watching film with players and giving them pop quizzes to see what they've got between their earholes.

 

The importance of mental agility is starting to sink in. Rey Maualuga had first-round athleticism but slid to the second because teams saw the blunders he made in diagnosing plays and how he relied too much on raw ability to compensate. Maualuga had a solid rookie season for the Bengals (63 tackles), but it is now clear why he was the third USC LB drafted in 2009.

 

Here's a good test for this season's GMs. Watch where South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul goes in comparison to Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan. Pierre-Paul is a physical freak, and a team may get flak for passing him by to get to Morgan. But what that team will know is that Morgan is far more versatile and game aware than his counterpart, who hasn't shown much more than pure pass-rushing ability.

 

"You can't win with dumb players in the NFL anymore."

 

4. They will choose need over value. Everyone who has a say in a team's draft starts with the idea that the biggest holes need to be filled first. It's a fair philosophy in a football utopia. But in the real world, hole-filling can't be the only -- or primary -- factor in determining which guy to take.

 

Look at what the Vikings did in the 2007 draft. After scoring only 17.6 ppg, they needed help on the offensive line, a replacement for QB Brad Johnson and a serious upgrade over No. 1 receiver Travis Taylor. The only solid spot in the offense, in fact, was running back, where 27-year-old Chester Taylor had gained 1,504 yards from scrimmage. But necessity didn't force Minnesota to reach for Brady Quinn or Ted Ginn Jr. at No. 7. Instead, they went with the best value on the board, some kid named Peterson. Think they wish they'd gone a different way?

 

The Colts are the NFL's best at balancing value and need. In the past four drafts (despite picking after the big-four positions have been poached), they've gone 4-for-4 with top choices: RB Joseph Addai, WR Anthony Gonzalez, OG Mike Pollak and RB Donald Brown. None was a sexy choice. All offered bang for the buck at the spot they were chosen. If team president Bill Polian also filled team needs, well, that was a nifty bonus. More to his point, a perennial contender restocked its shelf with starting-caliber players.

 

The Bills sit on the opposite side of this balancing act. They've consistently targeted need over value and failed miserably. From 2006 to 2008, the Bills reached for DT John McCargo, RB Marshawn Lynch and CB Leodis McKelvin. Not one of them was a starter by the end of this past season. That's a drafting disaster. Buffalo fans had best hope their team has learned its lesson as it debates whether to reach for QB Jimmy Clausen at No. 9. It's a position of need, for sure, but, personally, I see him as the No. 28 prospect in the draft. Buffalo would be better off taking a top offensive tackle, Oklahoma's Trent Williams or Rutgers' Anthony Davis. A QB like Colt McCoy or Tony Pike will be waiting for them later.

 

And if all else fails, they can try to trade with the Raiders.

 

The guy didn't do his research and he's making accusations about Buffalo. #1 Lynch went to the pro-bowl. #2 McKelvin wasn't a starter due to injury. #3 Peterson was an obvious pick but the Faders taking McFadden was stupid when they had Michael Bush and Justin Fartgas. #4 IMO, a reach is drafting a guy who will be there on your next pick not picking for "value".

 

 

I know McShay probably loved tearing into the Bills, but his point about McKelvin is misleading. He makes it seem as if Leodis wasn't the starter b/c of performance when he was really just injured. Before the injury McKelvin was emerging as an explosive ST player and his defense was definitely solid.

 

I expect McKelvin to have a great year this year.

 

What he said.

 

 

I remember being shocked to hear Marv Levy say that he believed in drafting for need first. Complete stupidity that goes against the basic principles of drafting. The whole Levy/Jauron era was like a bad dream filled with logic defying decisions. But just like then, a lot of you would be on board with Nix if he said that teams should be built from the outside in, or that the importance of the QB has diminished.

 

Marv Levy had a weekly show with Bob Matthews in 2006(?) and said that if two players are very closely rated and one is a need you go for them.

 

 

Before he got injured...go back and look at the games. he was getting torched left and right. Good special teamer..thats about it.

 

You must have been watching different games than me, and you were drunk at the time.

[Doc]

You must have been watching different games than me, and you were drunk at the time.

[billsfan_34]

Nope, positive I wasnt.

[machinegun12]

There's a lot of angry people on here.

[Max997]

Does anyone really think Maybin is a bust because he sat and watched this year? Pulling the the plug on TE is borderline early, but mayeb understandable. Dismissing Maybin at this point is insane.

 

I thought Maybin would be a bust as a DE before he even signed his contract, the Bills switching to the 3-4 is the best thing that could happen to him and the Bills for their investment in him

[Billy in 4C]

Does anyone really think Maybin is a bust because he sat and watched this year? Pulling the the plug on TE is borderline early, but mayeb understandable. Dismissing Maybin at this point is insane.

 

True, but he has just as much to prove as any of the other guys on McShay's list, if not more so. He is behind where McKelvin and Lynch were as rookies, and hasn't proven he can play in this league. It's not to say its over for him, but he's had a very poor start to his career. Let's hope he looks better at OLB, but right now he looks overmatched on the football field, even on special teams.

[yungmack]

McShay had me with this article...right up to his endorsement of Tony Pike. Or as I like to think of it, Tony Freakin' Pike! I wonder if he's even seen Pike play. McShay doesn't even have LeFevour in his top five but he does have room for Pike. Anybody who picks Pike as a top 5 QB forfeits any credibility he might have.

[starrymessenger]

Todd McShay has ZERO credibility with me. He had Aaron Maybin ranked in the Top 5 players overall and said he was the pick of the draft in 2009.

 

This only confirms that we shouldn't take a nano-second to pick Jimmy Claussen if he falls to us at #9.

Contrary to what McShay seems to believe, unfortunately for us he will be off the board at # 9. Also, although you need both a QB and an O-line, you don't necessarily "build" the line first. All depends whats expected to be available in consecutive drafts. If the franchise QB is there you take him. Doesn't mean you have to start him immediately either A Rodgers sat for three years. You can at least wait until you land your tackle and the line improves.

[BADOLBILZ]

I rather be Millen (someone who has actually played the game) than a whining dbag who just shows up to hate on a draft pick that was 4 years ago. DawGG.

 

Biscuit, it's inarguable. You are the most consistently wrong, over-opinionated poster on TBD. Also, you are an incredible bag o' douche about it. One literally can go thru every bad move the Bills have made the past decade and just assign you as a supporter of it and the majority of people here would automatically believe it because your track record is just that bad. And they'd probably be right, because you don't just support EVERY move they make, you defend it as if you are going to receive a medal for being the top hate-fueled D-bag fan of the Buffalo Bills.

 

Some fans defend the Bills out of optimism, your online persona is that you just hate everything and everyone that doesn't point to the conclusion that the Bills are infallible. It's bizarre. Your insistence thru season after dismal season, that Dick Jauron was a head coaching equal to Bill Belichick bordered on insanity. Millen-esque? Oh, yeah.

[bobobonators]

Biscuit, it's inarguable. You are the most consistently wrong, over-opinionated poster on TBD. Also, you are an incredible bag o' douche about it. One literally can go thru every bad move the Bills have made the past decade and just assign you as a supporter of it and the majority of people here would automatically believe it because your track record is just that bad. And they'd probably be right, because you don't just support EVERY move they make, you defend it as if you are going to receive a medal for being the top hate-fueled D-bag fan of the Buffalo Bills.

 

Some fans defend the Bills out of optimism, your online persona is that you just hate everything and everyone that doesn't point to the conclusion that the Bills are infallible. It's bizarre. Your insistence thru season after dismal season, that Dick Jauron was a head coaching equal to Bill Belichick bordered on insanity. Millen-esque? Oh, yeah.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Biscuit, it's inarguable. You are the most consistently wrong, over-opinionated poster on TBD. Also, you are an incredible bag o' douche about it. One literally can go thru every bad move the Bills have made the past decade and just assign you as a supporter of it and the majority of people here would automatically believe it because your track record is just that bad. And they'd probably be right, because you don't just support EVERY move they make, you defend it as if you are going to receive a medal for being the top hate-fueled D-bag fan of the Buffalo Bills.

 

Some fans defend the Bills out of optimism, your online persona is that you just hate everything and everyone that doesn't point to the conclusion that the Bills are infallible. It's bizarre. Your insistence thru season after dismal season, that Dick Jauron was a head coaching equal to Bill Belichick bordered on insanity. Millen-esque? Oh, yeah.

 

 

Please tell me why should I care about your opinion? Oh right. You're the guy who whines about everything. The Bills have been bad for a decade and you whine about every move. You are amazing. You are the guy who got consistently owed in your whining about how no good teams draft d backs early and looked like a fool. I'd cite more but I honestly don't pay that much attention to your posts. The same old Bills are terrible over and over.

 

You also demonstrated your lack of reading comprehension. Going into last year, Jauron had a better record than Belichick before he got Brady. It's a fact that can't be argued. Obviously, Jauron didn't get the job done but that fact remains 100% true.

 

But congrats. You get to puff your chest out about being right on an internet board and spend your summers predicting your favorite team will suck. That's a hell of a life you got there. Do you brag to your "real" friends about that? The Bills are a passion of my and represent my hometown. i take pride in that. I'll put my resume of playing college football and my educational background against yours if you want. But if your idea of a good time is spending your free time saying the same old "Bills suck" and bragging out about being right, you live a very sad existence.

 

And looking back at your posts, you're the definition of a condescending prick. Douche bag.

[oak tree 12]

the only real flaw in his article is we need a QB. You can't win in this league without a stud QB. These 'game managers' don't get it done any longer. If you don't have a cat at the QB position that scares teams and has the other teams respect, you won't win ****.

 

you guys just cant get it thru your heads. do we need a QB probably. dont forget galieys history with developing QB's and getting the most out of their talent.

 

however there is one problem with this years draft and that is there is no franchise QB in the freaking draft.

 

if we take clausen or bradford @ 9 we are doomed. every scout every expert you listen to they all say the same thing the QB's in this draft all come with a ton of question marks.

 

go to NFL.com and listen to mike lombardi an ex successful GM analyze both of these QB's and then tell me you are going to take them @ 9.

 

if you answer yes then you are not very football smart.

 

just because everyone thinks we need a QB you just cannot waste such a high draft pick on a guy full of question marks it would be suicidal.

 

thank god buddy nix is not stupid and he will not draft any of the project QB's in this draft @ 9 I'll bet my life on it!