finn

You've been down this road before, Neo. You know where it goes. Garrett (Parsons, Crosby, whoever) comes in as the savior, dazzling everyone for awhile and playing up to the monstrous cost to land him, then he pops an Achilles or tears an ACL. With no depth or cap room to draw on, the Bills are reduced to starting a seventh round pick out of Wichita State at DE and relying on Oliver and Rousseau to rush the passer, supported by a thin secondary, which was not replenished by the draft or free agency, all resources, present and future, going to pay for one (one) player. But Garrett comes back in 2026! Ok, he's still hobbled. But he comes back in 2027! Sure, he's 31 and not the same player he was, and with still no cap room to pay even the ball boy, Beane is fielding a team that either paper thin or deficient (or both) at every position. But, damn, it sure was fun for those first few months! TBD exploded at the news of the signing! That's worth something, isn't it? /s

Pretty persuasive post. I think both you and the McBeane critics (including me) could be right. It's possible that both Beane and McDermott, although very good at what they do, are not excellent, and that at least some of the teams in the Allen era would have won Super Bowls if even one of them were. Still, I think you're right that tearing it all down is way too risky given how close they are. I'm reminded of that joke that has a man going the wrong way on the highway. He sees a sign that says, "You're going the wrong way! Turn back!" A little while later he sees a still more urgent sign, "TURN BACK!! WRONG WAY!!" After awhile, he sees another sign, "Well, you've come so far..."

I should do my homework and provide evidence to support my point, but I'm too busy, tired, and lazy, so I'll just say that my impression is that Allen is keeping us in these playoff games against KC despite McDermott's failure to slow down the KC offense. And Allen is going against a tough, well-coached defense, while Mahomes is going against a sieve. Allen is better than Mahomes, so he keeps up and the score is close, as you say, but it's not close because McDermott is doing his part. He's not. (I agree about the refs, by the way. Even someone as talented as Allen can't overcome a tough defense, his own coach, AND the refs.)

It might just appear that their D beats our O in high leverage situations because our D folds like a tent and our O has to bail them out. Put it this way: The Bills offense would utterly destroy the Bills defense, while the KC offense would be crushed by the KC defense. Who can spot the weak unit here?

Isolating the problem still more, do you agree it's not the KC defense, which, while excellent and well coached, is not too much for Allen to handle, and it IS the KC offense? If so, why did Mahomes and Reid have trouble this year with virtually every defense they faced--except the Bills defense? Others have laid out the case in more detail, but it seems McDermott is always surprised by KC in the playoffs. In the game last month, he and Babich had no answer for Mahomes' scrambling, were caught flat footed by Bedford's injury, and hadn't prepared the team to play man when they needed to. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Spagnola WAS ready for the Bills offense, shutting down the tush push and preparing exotic blitzes for just the right time. Even so, Allen overcame them (until Kincaid dropped the ball a la Diggs 2023). If McDermott had done his part, the Bills would likely have won. But he never does do his part, does he? Not when it comes to KC. I'm starting to wonder if it's psychological. It's like he reverts to junior assistant or little brother mode when he faces Reid, his onetime mentor. Put it this way: If, just before the Bills meet KC in the playoffs next year, McDermott got the flu and couldn't make the game and Brady or Babich took over, wouldn't you breathe a sigh of relief? I know I would.

I didn't mean to imply he can't play. I picked him as an example of an average quarterback because, if you look at the starting QBs in 2026 (putting aside the injury replacements), Tua is just about in the middle, at least in term of how most sites (and fans, maybe) rank them. The 15 ahead of him, arguably: Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Mahomes, Daniels, Goff, Darnold, Mayfield, Herbert, Love, Hurts, Stafford, Stroud, Murray, and Wilson. You could put him higher, but I don't think he's anything close to elite level. Good enough to be an asset at times, but not good enough to take a mediocre team like the Bills (sans Allen) to the playoffs. Some things are obvious only when they're pointed out. And it seems obvious to me now that while Beane and McDermott are very good at what they do, neither of them are among the best in the league, and that--not injuries, not bad luck--is why the Bills keep falling short, even with the best quarterback in the league.

The facts speak for themselves: Allen has been carrying a deeply mediocre team. Replace him with, say, Tua, and you have just another 8-9 team that misses the playoffs. Alternatively, put him on any other 2024 playoff team and he wins the Super Bowl. Beane and McDermott are wasting a generational talent in front of our eyes.

I admit that I feel like a seasoned expert after reading a few scouting profiles and watching player highlights on YouTube. On draft day, I'm outraged--scandalized!--that Beane would ignore my favorites for some player my sources say will be a dub. (Then I proceed to ignore the favorites who turn into busts and remember only that I wanted the Creed Humphreys over the Boogie Bashams.)

I teach students this age, and I'm here to tell you, most of them are not ready, mentally or emotionally, for anything more rigorous that an entry-level job in their chosen field. Thinking of them thrown into an arena with grown men hardened by years of grueling competition, and expected to perform under the klieg lights of intense national scrutiny, makes me wince. They would be chewed up, spat out, and left whimpering in the dirt. College seniors and rookies may look like NFL players, and some of them have the requisite physical abilities, but it takes a lot more than that to survive in the NFL, let alone thrive, from what I can see. You need a supportive environment that gives you time and training to adjust to the crazy speed, power, and sheer violence in the NFL. But you also need maturity and character. How do you handle adversity, especially injuries? How do you deal with the obscene amount of money dumped on you, and the way it changes the relationships with your friends and family? What do you do when you whiff a block, drop a critical pass, get knocked down, and everyone says you suck? No wonder it's hard for Beane to hit on draft picks. Maybe Boogie Basham and Elam are good enough, physically, to be elite players but don't have or didn't get everything else they needed to succeed.

I thought Beane and McDermott put all their efforts into building a defense specifically to beat KC. Ironically, they managed to build one that KC found much, much easier to beat than either Houston or Philly.

Xavier Watt looks like he'll be a star. I'll take exceptional instincts and ball skills in a safety above speed and even tackling. We need more than just hitters back there.

What do you make of the point that he's had to rush from the defensive right side, not his strong suit, because they have Miller rushing from the left? If this is the case, it might be better at this point to put him back into his natural position and either let Miller go or serve as depth only. Also, it hasn't helped Rousseau to have Epenesa on the other side. Pair him with an explosive rusher and maybe we'll see more than 5 sacks a year from him.

If he's going to ever do it, this would be the year, with 50 DL in Brugler's top 100 prospects. If I'm Beane, I go DL for two of the first two picks, CB for the third pick (still in the second round), then secondary depth as the next priority. Resign Amari, let Cook play out his contract, extend Rousseau, Shakir, Benford, Bernard. In other words, keep your own and build through the draft.

Long thread, so maybe someone else made this point already, but why would Beane extend Cook if he doesn't have to, given the other priorities and tight cap space? Especially with this bogus, pouting stunt? I hope Beane will do the smart thing: say nothing, let him play out his contract, and either extend him then or say goodbye, sending the message that you don't negotiate with the Bills via social media. Meanwhile, Cook will have all the incentive to turn in a stellar year since he's auditioning for a big contract from someone. Me, I hate this kind of posturing so much, I would deliberately try to extend everyone but Cook: Rousseau, Bernard, Shakir, Benford. Reward performance and a team-first attitude these players have displayed, and signal to Cook that he needs a new agent (and brother).

I have enough to deal with reading sophomoric replies like this, dude.

In this thread about the 2024 draft, people keep saying you can't judge a draft until it's three years out. So let's look at the 2022 Bills draft: 1. Kaiir Elam 2. James Cook 3. Terrel Bernard 4. (Traded to move up for Elam) 5. Khalil Shakir 6. Matt Araiza 6. Christian Benford 6. Luke Tenuta 7. Baylon Spector Elam is shaping up to be one of the bigger busts in Bills history. Cook, Shakir, and Benford are home runs for where they were taken. Bernard is an adequate starter who can be a playmaker at times but also disappears for whole games. Araiza is KC's meh punter. Tenuta has been a waiver-wire guy. Spector is not good, but at least he was never cut. Would have been an A+ draft if he had hit on the first-round pick (e.g. if he had traded up for McDuffie before KC beat him to it). Otherwise, it's the Cook-Bernard-Shakir-Benford draft. Four very good starters, but no blue chippers. Better than 2021's Rousseau-Brown-Hamlin draft and arguably on par with 2020, when he traded his number one for Diggs and picked up Epenesa, Zach Moss, Gabe Davis, Bass, and Dane Jackson. Easy to spot the trend: Allen is the only blue-chip player Beane has drafted, Diggs the only free agent blue chip player (aside from 8 games from Von Miller). Good enough to be a runner up year after year after year.

What do you like about him? I'm curious. I realize I'm looking for reasons to dislike him, but I've noticed how tepid he is about acknowledging that other quarterbacks might--just might--be as good as him. Look at Allen's gracious comments about Lamar before their playoff showdown this year. With every last person with a microphone (no exceptions) praising him at every turn, and couching even modest criticisms in lavish lickspittlery, you think Mahomes could manage a few nice words about his peers besides the usual trite BS. You see what you want to see, I guess, but I see a smirking, self-satisfied punk.

Judging in hindsight seems unfair, but how else do you judge a GM's performance? McConkey, Sweat, DeJean, Lassiter, and Bullock were all second rounders, and Beane passed on all of them for Coleman. Every one of them looks like a budding star at a position (WR, DT, S, CB, S) of need for Buffalo. It's too early to write off Coleman, but I would say his odds of being another Elam are better than his becoming a player of the caliber of these five.

Tyler Grable might end up starting at left tackle in a few years, along with SVPG at center. Bishop and Coleman will be starters next year, and Davis is already an important piece on offense. Too early to tell for the rest of the picks, but already that's not a terrible class. A lot depends on Coleman. He looked like a different player after his injury, like he lost the will to go get the ball, rendering him pretty much useless out there. If he turns it around, and even if one of the later picks--Solomon or Carter, for instance--contributes, this might end up to be a very nice draft indeed. I think Bishop will be a force.

Yeah, but the league hasn't announced yet that three of our "home" games will be in Buenos Aires, Kuala Lampur, and Ulaanbaatar, in outer Mongolia.

I've noticed the same thing. A talent-first approach might have led Beane to take Humphrey over Basham, McConkey over Coleman, and maybe even LaPorta over Kincaid, whom Beane might have taken because Allen liked him. With the 2024 class considered, Beane's overall record as a talent evaluator is not looking good at all. Maybe he needs to follow McDermott's lead and overhaul his staff. Unless the problem is not his staff but his own judgment.

Reminds me of just how snake-bit the Bills have been with injuries. They might have been among the most healthy teams overall the past five years, but the injuries to White, Milano, and Miller--arguably their three best players at the time--were body blows. The team went from one of the best defenses in the league (in points allowed and EPA) to truly mediocre. Meanwhile, the lynchpins of their defense, Poyer and Hyde, both hit the wall at the same time, and the new generation--Rousseau, Oliver, Epenesa, Bernard, Williams, Elam, and Basham, have been underwhelming. Only Benford has exceeded expectations. Bad luck? Bad talent evaluation? Or bad coaching? Maybe some combination. In any event, it won't be easy to turn it around next year. Anyway, back to Milano. Definitely keep him. He can still be a star. So can Rousseau on the right side with a powerhouse rusher on the left (not Miller). Maybe Bishop will turn out to be a force, too. And I love Taron and Bernard. The others... Let's just say this defense needs an infusion of talent. Not sure of the cap implications, but I wouldn't be grieving if Beane got at least one high draft pick for some combination of Oliver, Epenesa, and Elam. I would love to see a more talented set of defensive tackles, a monster edge, and a top cornerback. Beane has ten picks to work with, three in the first two rounds--possibly four if he can trade the three I mentioned. And he can create cap room for at least one big signing. It CAN be done, especially since the offense only needs one top player. All eyes on you, Beane.

No, my point was that Beane might want to better heed his scouts' advice on day one and two, not just on day three. It's appropriate the execs make the final calls in the draft, since there are considerations the execs know about and the scouts don't. But, as we at TBD know all too well, it's easy to fall in love with players and feel positive you're right, since, after all, you've read two draft magazines and saw a lot of highlights on YouTube. If I'm Beane, I go with the scouts unless I have very, very good reason not to.

Joe Schoen who let Barkley walk without compensation and signed Daniel Jones to a $92 million contract before releasing him, too, also without compensation? This is the guy whose judgment Beane trusted above his own?

The only nugget I found interesting was their speculation that Beane might be making the calls in the early rounds and his scouts (experts) in the later rounds, which would explain the results we've seen. That, together with their observation that Beane is a management guy with no background in scouting made all the pieces fall into place for me. You see the same thing happen on other teams with the owners or head coaches shouldering in and choosing the first-round players, usually with disastrous results. If this is the case, Beane needs to check his ego at the door on draft day.