finn

You should join my critical-thinking class. In fact, we'll be addressing the Straw Man fallacy next week. I don't use sarcasm on my students, but I'll use it on you since, as a veteran poster, you should know better. "Yes! In fact every success in every sport is due entirely to luck. Thank you SO much for understanding my position!" I urge you to re-read my post. I said when teams are this close, probability plays an outsized role, and you can get lopsided results that do not reflect just how even the teams are. Yet shallow thinkers, never trained to bracket their knee-jerk reactions and actually think, insist that Destiny or Greatness are the real reason for the result. So Mahomes is far better than Allen, and the Bills are inferior as a whole to the Champions. I'm very glad I don't live in that world. I'm sure it's comfortable, but I would miss using my mind.

Flip a coin ten times, with heads your "team." It comes up tails four times in a row, and fans of the tail team are strutting around talking trash. You can point out how easily it could have gone the other way, but the tail fans will just call you a whiner making excuses. They'll boast that tails are dominant, they own the heads, their team (and, by extension, they themselves) are winners, heads and their fans losers. Put ego aside and think objectively. The Bills could just as easily won the past four matchups as lose them, and it's likely true going forward. There's no magical mystery powder when teams are this even. There's only probability. (Except for the cheating refs. 🤨)

You're soothing my nerves. Maybe I'll watch the game after all.

It does feel like it's going to be that kind of game, doesn't it? I don't see this defense stopping Henry and Jackson--except via turnovers, a big exception--and I'm confident that even the Ravens defense will have trouble with Allen and Cook. But the relative difference between the units is lopsided. To put it another way, Allen/Cook > Jackson/Henry, but Ravens D > Bills D. To put it still another way, the Bills O would absolutely destroy, shred, mutilate the Bills D, while the Ravens will merely destroy it. 😕

Maybe you're right. I was assuming that he wasn't ready, but I suppose he could learn on the job. Ok, I feel a bit better. You've changed the image of my head from a truck heading toward a brick wall to a plane taking off with the mechanics running after it making last-minute repairs to one of the wings.

Yes, it seems Taron and the safeties will need to help out the second corner no matter who he is. But do you really start a guy who is promising but clearly wasn't ready even before he missed weeks of training camp, as well as the first four weeks of the year? I mean, you do if you're the Browns, but not if you expect to go to the Super Bowl. Right, hence my expectation that a trade is in the offing. The problem is just too glaring. Trouble is, you don't want to give up too much with a promising first-round pick ready to start next year, probably, so you're not going to get much, either.

I'm not sure what Beane has in mind. What's the best-case scenario, realistically? That White is adequate and stays healthy all year? That seems risky, given his age and injury history. If he goes down or has hit the wall (or both), the cupboard is bare. Strong? He's promising but raw. Ingram? Yikes. Hope against all evidence that Hairston can fill in despite missing much of training camp as well as the first four weeks of the season? I'm waiting for a trade announcement just like two years ago, with a slate of extensions to make salary cap room. Not where you want to be with the season starting next week. Someone make me feel better.

Maybe Samuels. Addition by subtraction.

Well, I like the depth at LB and DL. The receivers corps should be better with Shavers and Palmer, even if Moore and Samuels don't pan out. Coleman looks better, Hawes > Gillman. OL and RB still big strengths. And of course, we have a Hulk. Steady or better across the board, in short. It's the time of year for sunny optimism, so maybe Bishop will be a revelation, Rapp will stay healthy, and White will do just fine, with Hairston, Strong, and Hancock coming on in the latter half of the year and playoffs. I'm excited about Bosa, Sanders, and Walker. Game on!

Well, you're doing a good job saying it now. You put your finger on the question that more sunny posters here are ignore: not whether the Bills do something, but whether it was enough to produce a better outcome in the playoffs than the past seven years. I share your concern, to the extent that my hopes for the season rest pretty much entirely on Allen and the offense. I think the defense may win a few games for the team via turnovers, as they did in the Baltimore game, where they were otherwise overmatched. But for the most part my hopes for a Super Bowl appearance/win rest entirely on Allen and the offense. Not a whimsical hope, I might add.

Although, to be fair, they have like half the time to get home on their rushes than their counterparts on teams that have a competent secondary. It doesn't take much time to hit receivers routinely given a ten-yard cushion.

He does have a lot going for him. Crazy motor, plays like a wolverine. Freakishly long arms, plenty of power. He'll never bend like Von Miller, but I think he could easily stick as a valuable rotational piece.

I disagree with those who argue Beane did enough at cornerback by drafting one in the first and fifth round and signing White and Jackson. The draft picks were unlikely to be ready to start, and while both White and Jackson both know the system, neither are starting quality. And that's quite aside from the prospect of injuries. Realistically, the best-case scenario was White doing an adequate job while Hairston and Strong developed. But hanging the season on a 30-year old coming off serious injuries does not (and did not) sound very prudent. It's not like Beane didn't have money to spend, when you consider the contracts for Hoecht and Ogonjobi. I think Hoecht was a good signing, even with the suspension. But even if Obiwan were performing great, which he isn't, it would have been smarter to put that money into the secondary. It looks like 2023 all over again, when Beane had to give up a third-round pick for a cornerback who hit the wall the following year. Let's hope the Bills can muddle along until Hairston is ready--and that he plays well.

He reminds me of Reggie White, the way he tosses around 300-pound offensive linemen. White maybe had better balance, but Walker is similarly huge, powerful, and agile.

You might be right, but it seems to me that it has more to do with McDermott's temperament. He's willing to roll the dice on offense, but he's always been as conservative as a cat on defense, his supposed bailiwick. To be fair, his approach does get it done (although what approach wouldn't when you have the highest-scoring offense in the league), but in the playoffs, it's akin to waving the white flag. He might as well cup his hands and yell over to Reid, "hey, Andy! I'll let you score at will, but keep it under 32 points this year, ok?"

To the extent I'm optimistic the Bills go all the way this year, I think it will depend on Allen taking it up still another notch in order to overcome the continuing deficiencies of his head coach in the playoffs. I suspect he knows that. As I've said elsewhere, I'm not confident McDermott could go all the way with any roster in the league. He's a deer in the headlights when he faces KC, shocked--shocked!--that his bend-don't-break defense breaks when it matters most, even though it has happened time after time after time after time. If this team finally reach the Super Bowl, it will be despite McDermott, not because of him.

You know, there's something in that, and not just past the midfield line. I realize McDermott does go for it on fourth down more than most HC's, but with the the best QB in the league back there--and with spotty special teams and his own ineffective defense as the alternative--he might get better results going for it on everything shorter than 3rd and 15, even from his own end. Swap McDermott for Dan Campbell and we'd have a dynasty.

McDermott appears to coach his players to give receivers a big cushion in order to not be burned deep then make the tackle. He might be right that this approach produces more wins, at least in the regular season, but it's deeply frustrating to watch. He doesn't seem to grasp, or somehow rationalizes away, that this means his pass rush is much less likely to get home. Call me old fashioned, but I'd rather see our defense completely crush their opponents while giving up the occasional big play than watch them play pitch and catch hoping they drop the ball at some point. At the very least, he should change it up in the playoffs. How much evidence does he need that playoff teams feast on soft cushions and don't make the mistakes that he counts on them to make?

Fair point. I do feel more comfortable with the cornerback depth than I do safety. Still, Dane Jackson is no more than emergency depth, and Tre White, although I'm certainly rooting for him, is a gamble with his age and injury history (as we're seeing). I do like Strong, who may be a significant player next year, but Hancock has always been slotted (it appears) as nickel and safety, not CB. That adds up to putting all your chips for this critical position on your first rounder, hoping he's both good and stays healthy (!), with the iffy White as insurance policy. After having to give up a third-rounder in mid-season two years ago because of a lemon first-round CB and inadequate depth, you'd think Beane would have done a bit more at CB. Same with safety after last year's debacle. Hence my point that he seems fixated on DL at the expense of other positions. I agree DL should be the top priority, but not if it means leaving other positions threadbare. Hindsight is 20-20, but I look at Carter, Jackson (yes, yes, way too early), and Obiwan, and I can't help wonder if those investments (two third rounders and $8 million) would have been better spent on S and CB.

Exactly. Beane seemed to overreact to Philly's D-line manhandling KC the same way he overreacted (the huge six-year contract to 33-year old Von Miller) after Tampa Bay's D-line manhandled them in the 2021 Super Bowl. In both cases, he went berserk on the D-line at the expense of other team needs. You can argue bad luck in the case of Miller, but in the present case, they have more D-lineman than they know what to do with, while the only reliable starters in the secondary are Rapp, Taron, and Benford. They're pinning their hopes on the best-case scenario of Bishop panning out and everyone else staying healthy. White's recent injury is a reminder that you can hope for the best, but you don't want to rely on it.

I'm glad to have Sanders, Walker, and Jackson, but I wish Beane had invested free-agent money in one very good safety and a reliable corner besides White instead of Hoecht and Oganjobi. Hoecht's contract is worth up to $24 million over three years, Obiwan is guaranteed $8 million for one year. I'm sure they'll contribute, but even before the injuries in the secondary, I would have preferred the money go back there to make double sure we don't have a repeat of last year's nightmare. At this point, the D-line is loaded and the secondary might end up being a dumpster fire. Reminds me of those power lifters with an overdeveloped upper body and stick legs.

Not desperate enough to bring in Gabe Davis, at least not yet.

Is this many injuries normal? I mean, are other teams seeing a similar number of players going down?

Well, you can't argue Beane did nothing in the offense to address a defense that has choked in the playoffs year after year. I'm excited about Sanders and Walker especially, and some of the other picks, like Hancock and Strong, I think will be very valuable as soon as next year. I dread the prospect of Hamlin starting, but Bosa is a big upgrade over Miller, and Milano looks like he might have a career year. But even if this defense is a LOT better, we still may be watching McDermott facing Andy Reid in January. And that problem is not going to be fixed by personnel changes of any sort, I don't think. Reid sees through McDermott like a grown man watching a little kid playing in the backyard. Thought experiment: If McDermott were given Philadelphia's or Baltimore's defense (or even his pick of both teams) with a full year to work with it, would he win--or even get to--the Super Bowl if he had to face KC and Reid? I don't think so, either. Allen may end up being recognized as the greatest quarterback in NFL history, but every time his name is mentioned, people will shake their heads and say, "Why oh why didn't they ever get rid of McDermott?"

It might not be time for a radical move, but if it is, is there a team out there with good safety depth who the Bills might trade with? And who can the Bills offer in a trade? Not sure if the salary cap makes a trade impossible, but I would be happy to give up several players for one good safety, including Epenesa, Anderson, Carter, and Ulofoshio.