HalftimeAdjustment

Quite simply, I am hoping the Dolphins take one from the Jets as the Jets are capable of playing well or terrible on any given Sunday. Also, the Dolphins organization could easily screw up and fail to build a good team around Luck even if they get him. Finally, I think the Colts appear to be worse.

I cannot believe anyone here would have been rooting against Tebow when his team was playing the DOLPHINS. Who cares whether Tebow is great or sucks... I'm glad he was good enough to win today!

People saying player X is not worth $10M/year, or using contracts from a few years back to compare values, are not looking at the new market for players under the new CBA. Rookie pay was reduced but veteran pay increased, effectively, once the salary minimums kick in. Now it is not about saving money, but allocating the money you are spending efficiently. So if Fitz is not worth $10M/year, can you find someone for $10M/year who is worth it in your opinion, and will not be paid $12-14M by another team? If Steve Johnson is not worth $7-8M/year, can you find a receiver who is worth it for $7-8M/year that will not be offered $9M/year by another team? Or would you prefer to have a quarterback for $7M/year who is only worth $7M/year, and do you think they will be better than Fitz? Maybe you would prefer to see the larger amounts paid to another position, or would you like to have a team of only mediocre players so no one gets over $4-5M/yr regardless of position? As for rookies being cheaper - this will be true regardless of position. So one strategy, I guess, would be to use rookies at the most overpaid positions (QB, OT?, CB?, DE?) and pay for veterans at other positions; this would allow you to really get stacked at other positions in theory, since you still have to spend the minimum. I hope some team does try this so we can see how it works. I also hope that it is not the Bills who try this. In my opinion, none of the players are "worth" the amounts being described, but the market will determine their value if we do not reach an agreement. Some of us may be surprised by how the market values these players. Exhibit A: Paul Posluszny. 6yr, $42M. Does that mean he is "worth" $7M/year? Not likely, in production terms; but it's what the market will bear. For reference, recent (2010+) non-rookie QB deals per Rotoworld. Anything earlier, I am disregarding as out-of-date. These are total values and many deals may be voidable or never intended to reach their full value. Based on the below information, Fitz is in good shape asking for closer to $10M/year than $7M/year. There will definitely be a team willing to pay him more than $7M/year and we will be unlikely to get a replacement QB of similar stats for under $10M/year, unless it is a rookie. Anyone want McNabb or Kerry Collins for $7M/year, that is what $7M buys you... John Beck, 3yr, $3.3M, 2010 ($1.1M/yr) Rex Grossman, 1yr, $1.15M, 2011 ($1.15M/yr) Alex Smith, 1yr, $4M, 2011 ($4M/yr) Tarvaris Jackson, 2yr, $8M, 2011 ($4M/yr) Kyle Orton, 2yr, $11.6M, 2011 ($5.8M/yr) Matt Hasselbeck, 3yr, $20M, 2011 ($6.7M/yr) Kerry Collins, 2yr, $14M, 2010 ($7M/yr) Donovan McNabb, 1yr, $7.25M, 2011 ($7M/yr) Kevin Kolb, 6yr, $65M, 2011 ($10.8M/yr) Tom Brady, 5yr, $78.5M, 2010 ($15.7M/yr) Michael Vick, 6yr, $100M, 2011 ($16.6M/yr)

Ralph is cheap.

It is a good thing that the league forgot to prohibit tipping Pats* passes and catching them.

Once we started running out the clock, I became worried that the FG try would be BLOCKED!

Cowher had picked the Bills as his upset special, so he can (and should) gloat.

Sorry - unintentional mis-attribution. I don't have the strength to go search for first RFA reference but I'm sure you are right.

It is probably scenario 2 right now, but at the end of the year they might entertain a new, 2-3 year deal. Unfortunately if he gets injured before that he will be out of luck. At that point he should request to be cut or traded. It makes me sad, because he basically got burned by the RFA rules. I am glad you pointed out in this thread that Jackson was a restricted free agent when he signed the current deal. His choices were to play for 1 year at $460K, take this deal (presumably the best offer he received from the Bills), or retire from the NFL. Since then he has exceeded his contract. But, it is rare (not unprecedented) for the team to extend with 2 years left. Especially a 30yr old RB. It's just a bad situation all around. I definitely think they need to handle any players who are expiring at end of 2011 first, regardless.

And because he is Tom Brady, the ball was placed at the 1 following his punt.

What about Chris Kelsay?

I'm not saying they shouldn't give Fred more money, but they probably will not. On the subject of extensions: Rian Lindell is a free agent after this year. He should be extended.

Besides - as much as I like Fred Jackson, who is basically my favorite Bill, realistically the team is not likely to give him an extension. He is signed through 2012. At the end of that contract - he will be about to turn 32. What kind of extension do you think they would sign him to? Just one extra year (through 2013)? Through 2014, but without a guarantee after 2012? What good would that do either side, really? His best hope is that the team trades him before 2012 starts, and his new team gives him a 3-year deal. I hate this situation but I don't see them paying him more for "fairness".

I don't see the Bills' mgmt making receiver a P1; I just see them looking to add competition beyond what we have now. I think it is a little too early in the season to predict our top priority.

I don't think you should keep all 3 WR positions at 9. I would raise one of them to 4 or at worst 6... going into next year we are looking at Johnson, Nelson, Jones, Roosevelt, Aiken. Easley may not return, Parrish probably won't. I would drop QB to 3, and I would not lower both safety spots to 6... probably keep SS at 4. Agree with your other moves.

I had no choice but to comment on this. I suspect any "adjustments" made at halftime, in most cases, are just decisions to pick or not pick certain plays from the previously established game plan. For example, the coaches might decide to use more of package X instead of Y, but both packages were already in the plan - after all, it is not likely that you'd try something you didn't practice ahead of time. That doesn't mean it is not an adjustment, but for the most part the differences between first and second halves are usually more about attitude than anything else. After all, did they "adjust" to stop dropping so many passes?

"Bills Fans Hope Fitzpatrick's Leverage Will Only Increase".

So, it sounds like we might need to draft a DB early next year?

From a football standpoint - wide right... the MCM was close to that, and so was Flutie at Miami. The Dallas MNF game was definitely something that made me realize the team would find a way to lose (and boy did they ever). From a non-football perspective - watching Kevin Everett taken off the field, paralyzed. I felt vaguely ill all day after that.

I counted 6 losses in your game-by-game predictions.

Or, the jets sign him again after Week 1 so they can pay him only on the weeks they want him on the roster.

Honestly this seems like semantics. Once information is given to a reporter, for the purposes it basically ceases to be inside info. Besides, I don't read and judge articles in the press based on whether they disclose inside information. I read them based upon whether they tell me something about the Bills that I did not know before I read the article. For example, there was an article in the Buffalo News today describing the Bills' contract values and cash payout amounts. I did not know that information before I read the article. It features on the record quotes by Russ Brandon presenting the team's position on its cash management and pay practices. This is not inside info, because it is on the record attributed information. That does not mean it is not useful or interesting information. Similarly, the articles from John Wawrow have featured a phone interview with Ralph Wilson. This is an example of how you define inside information. Since Mr. Wilson was aware that he was speaking to the AP reporter and that his statements would be on the record, it was not "inside" information because it was intended for distribution. Also, you could state accurately that JW was only reporting what Mr. Wilson wanted to tell him, and if the owner chose not to tell him something, he would not know it. On the other hand it was an exclusive interview, and the average fan has no access to speak to Ralph Wilson. As such, it does not matter whether this is considered inside information - it is useful information (in my opinion) that the average fan would otherwise have no access to. So - if by "inside" you mean "internal discussions not intended for distribution outside Bills' top brass" or "information prior to its official release date" then it would be accurate to say that this information only comes to the press if it is leaked by someone, and this does not happen often with the Bills. On the other hand an article which reports on the Bills, and contains information not widely presented in other media outlets, where that information is not obvious and not accessible to the average fan, is useful information for those following the team. This is why people perceive reporters such as JW to have inside information - they are reporting information which otherwise we would never know so it might as well be "inside" information, whether intentionally disclosed to them by the team or not. I believe that neither side in this situation is going to want to concede anything and I hope that both NGU and JW continue to participate in the board through other discussions, even if they decide to mutually dislike each other. Like many other posters I would prefer to have contributions from both here on TBD.

I think there is a well-established past history of the owner making bad decisions. However, can you comment on how often the owner is intervening in decisions under the current regime, as opposed to prior GMs - at least based on what you have heard?

Thanks, that is a better answer than none at all.

Can I ask a related question: Does Ralph Wilson provide financial incentives to his executive staff for winning, or only for improved profitability? I understand why this information might be closely held between RW and the specific executives. However, if (for example) Littman receives a larger bonus for every $1M of profit, but any football-related bonuses are inconsequential, it is logical for him to be 100% focuses on the bottom line. Similarly for any other person in the organization. Sentimental desires to win are nice but in the end this is a business. Ralph Wilson's net worth increases whenever the value of the Bills as a team increases. JW has stated many times that he does not believe Ralph is "only" interested in money, and I believe that. However if he provides financial incentives that drive financial-oriented behavior, then his leadership style is to blame whether intentional or not. Similarly, if he has placed in a decision-making role someone who is primarily incentivized by financial results then that is what he is likely to get. Any light that can be shed on this question?