Cash

The qualifier on the list the Bills put out is a minimum of 150 attempts, which seems silly and arbitrary. However, dropping the minimum attempts would also add Matt Ryan & Joe Flacco to the list, and both would slot in below EJ: http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/67012/bills-brass-comes-to-manuels-defense Honestly, I think it's pretty meaningless no matter what. There can't be much of a correlation between a guy's first 5 games and his whole career. Any five game stretch is way too small a sample to mean anything.

The post you quoted was 223 words long. (Thanks, MS Word!) If that's approaching War and Peace length for you, maybe it's time to make the switch from reading a message board to listening to talk radio? Or you could get your Bills discussion from twitter -- 140 character limit puts everything squarely in Ivanhoe territory. Yes, this has been discussed extensively in other threads (MODS PLEASE MERGE INTO 200 PAGE SUPER-THREAD), and the Cowboys are the only team that has spend consecutive first-round picks on QBs, although I still think Walsh being a supplemental pick makes it a lot different. I think we'll eventually see a team spend back-to-back #1 picks on QBs in the regular draft, but I don't know if it'll be soon. I think if this past draft had been a better one for QBs, you could have seen Cleveland make that move. Drafting a 29-year-old QB in the 20s is the kind of #1 QB pick that lends itself to drafting a QB in the top 10 the following year. Drafting a 23-year-old "raw prospect" QB at #16 is less conducive to going back to the well the following year. Now, if EJ doesn't show any progress in the final 7 games, I'd be all for drafting another QB in the first, but I still don't think it would happen. Wow, that was a very interesting an depressing article; thanks for sharing. So we're at 13 years, almost certainly 14 after this year. (Even if we won out, we'd probably get bumped by a 10-6 team.) The all-time record is 25 years without a playoff appearance, jointly held by the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Dixies. Still a ways to go before we threaten that record. Even if Marrone is a bust, we're looking at an additional 3-4 coaches to take us there.

Geno Smith's starting WRs when he lit us up in week 3 were Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley, and a gimpy Santonio Holmes. I don't need EJ to light it up, but he needs to play better than he did last week. No excuses.

Bingo.

That's very good to hear! Tuel is one thing, but there's no excuse for EJ to underthrow guys on a deep route. Overthrowing is generally pretty safe, and if the guy is fast enough to catch up to the throw, it can be the difference between a TD and a guy being caught while he's making the catch.

That's what I figured. Thanks!

Mine was for $17.55. Was it prorated based on how many you bought? I only buy a Madden game every 3 years or so.

Conversely, there are times when the rainbow is better served, most typically on deep bombs. EJ's long ball accuracy has not been up to snuff thus far, and one of the main reasons IMO is because he's been throwing too flat of a ball. Makes it harder for receivers to adjust. Good for him that he can throw a laser-type pass 40-50 yards, but those are less likely to connect. Tuel's weak arm requires him to step up and huck it at about a 45-degree angle to throw a bomb, which worked out in the case of the Goodwin throw. (And failed miserably on the incompletion to Graham a couple plays earlier -- that throw was probably 10 full yards underthrown and fluttered badly.) Lewis has shown a pretty good touch on deep balls so far, which I love. Overall, I'll take the strong-armed QB and try to improve his technique on the deep throws over a guy with marginal physical tools.

Very interesting point -- hadn't thought of that, or even considered if the 2 injuries were to the same knee or not.

And if TJ turns it around and starts playing well, we'll flip on him too. Gleefully! There's no vendetta, it's just that this is a mid-to-late round talent drafted (through no fault of his own) in the 3rd round ahead of Russell Wilson and T.Y. Hilton, who has now been sold to us as a playmaker/key contributor by two different coaching staffs, and who continues to disappoint over and over again.

Pretty spot on. Kiko has glamour stats that put him way above the competition, regardless of actual quality of play. The #1 glamour stat for QBs is wins, and Geno has his team 5-4. They finish 7-9 or worse, he probably has no chance. They make the playoffs, he's a mortal lock.

/thread

Sweet, that means we'll probably win. Remember, they were all hired for their ability to spout nonsense into a camera without losing self-respect, not ability to predict football games.

I didn't exactly hate the Lawson signing, but I'd say I was fairly skeptical. But he's been really good, especially against the run. I have to give the Bills credit -- he's pretty much been exactly what Buddy Nix said he would be at the time of the signing. Branch looked like a solid signing at the time, and has held up to that. He's not exactly a world-beater, but a good player, and very necessary once Carrington got hurt. I was on board with the Sheppard/Hughes trade at the time, and saw it as basically losing nothing and gaining a lottery ticket. Hughes has played pretty well and looks like a decent rotational pass rusher. This is more of a $10 win on a scratch off than a Powerball jackpot, but a win nonetheless. I was very underwhelmed by the Legursky signing at the time, and remain so. I think he's well below average, and only looks good when compared to Colin Brown. I still wish they'd done more to address this spot in the offseason. (And no, I don't mind that they let Levitre walk. My beef is just with their Plan B once his price tag got too high.) The Thad Lewis trade, in hindsight, was a gigantic steal! Reason being, they traded a special-teams LB who was going to get cut anyway, and got back a QB who doesn't suck and shows some competence as a starter. Lewis isn't very good, but he does some positive things, and he's shown that you can win a game or two with him as your QB. It's hard to ask a lot more of a backup QB, and at this point, I think I'd be fine with Lewis entering camp next year as the primary backup, or at least in competition for the backup job. I like him. Leonhard was a nice signing as a veteran who knows the defense, who can be like an extra coach on the field and in the locker room to help the young guys integrate into the system. Plus, he made a couple nice INTs while Byrd was out. Now that Byrd's getting back up to speed, I'm glad to see his PT diminish, but he remains a solid veteran presence in a very young secondary.

I just hope EJ can stay healthy this time. Good or bad, I want him to take every snap the rest of the season. Let's see what we've got and see how much he can improve over the course of half a season.

Sheldon Richardson of the Jets has arguably been better, but a D-lineman who doesn't get sacks isn't going to get this kind of award. Just like an O-lineman will probably never win any offensive awards. I think Kiko is the very clear frontrunner at this point, and on a personal level, he's been a VERY pleasant surprise to me. On the offensive side, I agree it's probably Geno at the front of the pack right now, but I don't think it's a massive lead. He's incredibly up and down, and pretty much singlehandedly cost them a couple games on the down side. If Eddie Lacy keeps up his charge, I think there's a good chance he overtakes Geno. Heck, if EJ comes back and looks good in leading us to a 6-1 record the rest of the way, I think he'll have a very realistic chance of winning it. Even though his overall stats maybe wouldn't match Geno's or Lacy's, QBs are so over-judged on their team's record that EJ would be in play with a strong 2nd half.

I can't stop watching replays of that play, and every time I watch it, it kills me how wide-open Stevie is. Any kind of throw to the middle of the endzone -- even all the way at the back of the endzone -- produces a TD. Aaagh. I don't think I've ever said anything positive about Jeff Tuel, but I don't feel any anger or hate towards him. If anything, pity. Poor Jeff Tuel. He is who he is. I don't think it's fair to ask him to be a competent NFL QB, especially as a rookie. I don't necessarily kill Hackett for calling a pass or even that play, although I will continue to endlessly kill Hackett for having ANY play, much less a critical play, where TJ Graham is the QB's first read. If it's a clutch situation, that is the last guy we should be throwing to.

Don't have time to scour the internet at present, but from what breakdowns of the Bills' offense I've read, EJ has absolutely had to make those same kind of reads, dating back to the preseason. I remember one preseason breakdown detailing a packaged play we ran 3-4 times with EJ where there were 4 or 5 different options, including both passes & runs.

Goodwin reminds me a lot of T.Y. Hilton... the guy we should've drafted instead of Graham. (Though obviously Russell Wilson beats Hilton easily.) The injury thing is a little worrisome, but I'm hoping it's just a series of coincidences and not a real issue. I want to see him get regular playing time and see what he can do outside of the 9 route.

I disagree with you a lot, but I really tend to agree with this. My guard is more raised though, I think. I'm hoping that these aren't the same old Bills, but I'm in no way convinced. The Bills' easy stretch of the schedule is coming up (scroll down to "Chain of Strength"). I need to see wins during this stretch, not just close games. A blowout or two would be nice. Now, this team has been way better at home than on the road, and we've only got two true home games left (Jets & Dolphins), but if we're really turning the corner, we should be able to beat Pittsburgh and Jacksonville and Tampa Bay on the road and Atlanta on a neutral field. Win five or even four of those six and they'll make a believer out of me. Or win three of those, then go on to beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Or better yet, just win out and make the playoffs! Okay, that probably won't happen, but it would be fun if it did.

Fortunately or unfortunately, I was only able to see the first half live, and had to follow the rest on my phone. I was definitely disappointed in Gilmore, because I expected him to shut Bowe down. Having said that, I did notice that Bowe did almost nothing in the 2nd half, and overall didn't do a ton of damage. I don't know if Gilmore stepped up in the 2nd half or what. I'm looking forward to seeing the All-22 breakdowns for this game -- I want to know just how many catches & yards Gilmore gave up. Someone posted that 22 of Bowe's yards came against not-Gilmore. I can live with 50 yards or so for the opposition's top receiver, but I expect better from Gilmore if that top receiver is as low-caliber as Dwayne Bowe (especially since Bowe is having a terrible season so far). I did notice that his coverage was perfect (with no help) on the deep ball to Bowe after Hughes' strip-sack, so it's not like he was awful.

Agreed! Bill, I love your posts, and if I think you've gone off the deep end with your anti-Marrone/Gilmore rants, it's only because you're so sensible the rest of the time. Thanks for your contributions to this board!

Not this one. And I know I wasn't the only one glad to dump a dirty player. If I recall correctly, it was a little puzzling that the Bills chose not to tender Incognito as an RFA, but then Kawika Mitchell made some incendiary remarks about him on twitter that cast a little more light on the situation. I.e., that Incognito was a royal douche whose teammates hated him, or at least some of his teammates hated him.

Thank you. More on this below, but I'm glad we have a coaching staff that tries to win rather than tries not to lose. Tells me that *if* they get winning talent, they'll be able to win games with it. Bill from NYC/Dick Jauron ball gets you a record from 7-9 to 9-7 no matter who you've got. The bottom line to me is that a pick-6 in that situation is totally inexcusable, and everyone is to blame. I would've liked to see 3 straight QB sneaks, and would've been fine with a FG, because I think Tuel sucks. (But he should be able to execute a QB sneak.) My bigger issue with the playcalling, both in this game and in the Cincy game, is that they're too predictable. 1st down, smashmouth run into the line. 2nd down, same. If you're willing to go for it on 4th, then 3rd down is a repeat of 2nd down. Whatever your "last down" is, that's when you pass. I'd rather see playaction on 1st down, and if that doesn't work, then start running it. It's also clear that our O-line isn't good enough to shove around elite D-lines at the goal line when they know what we're doing. So we either need to fool them (running out of spread, counters, misdirection, etc.), or we need to try attacking different spots (outside runs, passes, QB runs, etc.). For the record, I feel like the most unstoppable goal line plays are the QB sneak, any naked bootleg, a QB rollout with a receiver running with him in the end zone (run or pass option), and any play where the TE pretends to block and leaks out. EDIT: I forgot to add the other disturbing thing about the playcalling: Per Hackett, on both the pick-6 and the 4th and 3 play, Graham was Tuel's first read. TJ Graham stinks, and even his defenders admit he's unreliable and has bad hands. He should never be the first read outside of 1st down. And he was the *only* read on the 4th and 3 play. If we're going to call a play where the QB is automatically throwing to 1 guy, that guy better be Stevie Johnson. I hope Hackett learns from his mistakes, but this love affair with TJ Graham is disturbing. In Bill's world, Marrone is not allowed in any of the defensive meetings and does not interact with defensive players. All the motivation and tone-setting that causes the D to play with such heart comes from Pettine, and Marrone is strictly forbidden from entering that territory. In fact, I believe the only thing Marrone does in Bill's world is call plays and throw challenge flags. Now, in Bill's defense, there is an argument here that given the Bills' terrible QB situation, they should be playing more conservatively. And I don't totally disagree with that. (For example, if we had anyone better than Tuel, I would advocate going for it on 4th and 1, but I would have preferred a FG try if he hadn't turned the ball over.) But I prefer a coaching staff that's too aggressive over one that's too conservative. Why? First, every analysis of coaching decisions shows that coaches are in general too conservative, and that more aggressive play will lead to more wins in the long run. Second, I feel like most coaches have their tendencies and stick to them -- i.e., they have a philosophy about the best way to win games. I think Marrone's philosophy is great, but it also needs a good QB. "But we don't have a good QB." True, but if Manuel becomes that good QB, you'll be glad our coach can take advantage of that. Third, when coaches do change their tendencies, I feel like it's more likely for them to go more conservative than more aggressive. (Usually because of incessant criticism by out of touch sportswriters.) So I'd rather have a new/young guy start out too aggressive than too conservative. Ron Rivera is an exception here, but I think that's a pretty rare case.

My preseason prediction was 5-11, but I didn't think the non-QB parts of the team would be as good as they've been. We're now heading into the easier portion of our schedule (6 straight winnable games), and I think it's reasonable to expect better QB play in the 2nd half of the year than the 1st. I'm guessing we go 3-3 in the next 6, get embarrassed by the Patriots, and finish 6-10.