BillsVet

I'm sure the Bills offensive coaches realize this, and are biding their time until a replacement can be found for Fowler. Unfortunately, the draft has no premier prospect at the position. He started in Minnesota when Matt Birk was injured, and has never proven himself as anything more than a depth lineman. It's also noteworthy that Buffalo gave Walker help so often. I'd heard prior to the season that Walker lacked decent lateral movement. It's similar in principle to 2006 when the Bills OL gave Pennington so much help with a TE. A RT doesn't need the physical skill set as a LT, but if they can't run plays without providing the RT help, it's a problem. The OL is better than the previous 5 years, but it'll need to be better than last year for this team to make the playoffs. Lynch and Evans are the only playmakers, and time and again Evans was smothered by secondaries. All in all, thorough analysis, but eye-opening as well.

Good article. There's only one item I take issue with: IMO, small markets can remain viable without free for all spending. Indy won the SB just over a year ago and despite lower revenues than bigger markets, they've managed to hand out big contracts to Manning, Freeney, Sanders, Clark, and others. In order to do this, small market teams need great front office decision makers. Without them, they end up like the Bengals and make consistently bad decisions all over the place. Indy has Polian, and this is the difference between successful and unsuccessful. One option the owners should consider is giving smaller markets more draft picks, something akin to what MLB does when another team signs their FA's. Give them compensatory picks between the first and second or otherwise whenever someone signs their FA's. Only in this situation, teams would give up their picks in the third, second, or even first round if they sign a certain level FA. I'm sure even Jerry Jones realizes he can't buy every player and must be efficient on draft day. The union would take issue, and the idea wouldn't leave the drawing board. Jerry Jones is spending like a wild man because he wants to win. Fine. But Dallas hasn't won anything since the mid 90s, and spending money never equates to winning. I'm a Yankees fan, and well aware that it's no guarantee. So let Jones spend and continue to lose. In the last 10 years Dallas has won 10+ games only 3 times, and remains 0-5 in the playoffs. The owners messed up and the union got the upper hand. If they can't compromise on something more even between them, a lockout looms even larger. I just can't see the union giving their newfound winnings back anytime soon, work stoppage or not. Upshaw doesn't do business like that.

IMO, the NFL got too big too fast. A good indicator is the meteoric rise of the salary cap. Just ten years ago, the cap stood at 52.4M. It's approximately 116.7M in 2008, or a 122% increase in ten years. Just three years ago the cap was 85.5M, or a 37% in three seasons. If there was any doubt about this CBA, it was in 2006 when the cap zoomed from 85.5M to 102M, or almost a 20% increase in one season. Looking back, I can see how the small market owners realized there was no end in sight. Unfortunately, not all the small market owners realized this and went along like lemmings into the mess they're in now. Tagliabue and the owners were out-done by Upshaw and the union, plain and simple. Commish: re cap increase

He can void the final year of his original deal, which would give him UFA status after 2008. Should he not void the final year, it's 2009.

Yes, they were 11th in scoring, although 5 defensive touchdowns helped their final ranking (3 INT and 2 Fumbles returned) Without those returns, Chicago is tied for 17th with NY Jets and their 308 pts. A little quick research shows that Chicago's combined opponents' record in 2001 was 119-137. Their wins came against: 5-11 MIN twice, at 7-9 ATL, vs 7-9 ARI, @ 6-10 CIN, vs 12-4 SF, vs 7-9 CLE, 2-14 DET twice, 9-7 TB twice, @ 8-8 WAS, and vs 6-10 JAC. With that weak of a schedule, 11th overall is low in my book.

I wasn't a big fan of the Schonert hiring, though there's more going on with it. DJ and the rest of the league know the Bills are under a lot of pressure to make the playoffs. I can't imagine another up and coming position coach or established NFL OC willing to take a deal where the HC could very well be coaching their final season. That sort of job assurance isn't going to attract many candidates. Enter Schonert. Edwards has a fairly entrenched OL, combined with a workhorse back and excellent receiver. From a purely on the field perspective, I don't think Schonert's going to make much difference. Fairchild was horrible, but installing a rookie OC (who's been a QB coach for five different franchises over 12 seasons) is a gamble too. I see them improving, but to somewhere around around 23-27th in the league in yards and scoring. DJ teams have never been offensive powers.

You're missing the point. Hardy's name has been thrown around merely because his size would seem to make him unstoppable. Unfortunately, and I've posted this far too often, Hardy is easily neutralized by good college CB's. One who comes to mind is the recently injured Jack Ikegwuonu. Against Wisonsin and Ikegwuonu, Hardy caught a mere 4 passes for less than 20 yards. Size alone will not make a player a star at the NFL level. Indiana's offense wasn't great, but it wasn't horrible either. If Hardy's having an issue with a premier college CB, that's very alarming. That, and his concerns about character. Oh, and about 10 threads have been started already on the subject. Hardy is, put simply, not the guy Buffalo needs or should even think about wanting unless it's in round 6 or lower.

Hardy manhandled Justin King last year to the tune of 14 catches for 142 yds and 2 scores in October. It doesn't surprise me the Bills are interviewing these receivers. The players they bring in accomplish two goals: 1) Find out about these guys and 2) Confuse the heck out of other teams It's a win-win, but I'm not sure the Bills want to take a receiver with his background, no matter how tall he is. I personally think he's going to have issues with press coverage, and Justin King won't be there every weekend. Jack Ikegwuonu shut Hardy down the week after he torched Penn St.

I guess Pete Fiutak is who we thought he was. And we're not leaving him off the hook. Everyone's saying Gholston will be the next great pass rusher. His measureables are off the chart, but since when does your reps on the bench press, vertical leap, and 40 time directly translate into playing well on the field? Ask Pete Fiutak what it will be like when Jason Peters puts Gholston on his backside every down.

Here we go again putting facts into a discussion about "depth." Of course the Bills have plenty of depth. For the past two years they've been using also-rans and never will be's in and out of their defensive lineup. Guys got PT and weren't NFL caliber, but the team wanted us to think they were. Sure, Rome wasn't built in a day, but geez, will we remember Kyle Williams, Larry Tripplett, John DiGiorgio, Keith Ellison, Tim Anderson, Kiwaukee Thomas, Jason Webster, and Jim Leonhard five years from now as average NFL players? The 30th ranked defense should improve with the additions of Stroud and Mitchell. The 30th ranked offense is another story altogether and thankfully not being addressed here. Cue the "we had 17 guys on IR mention."

First, I can't believe I'm arguing with someone who's screen name is used, ahem, for "extracurricular activities" to put it mildly. Second, don't even for a second suggest using the Colts as an example. Just don't. If you can't tell the difference organizationally between the Bills and the team who a little more than a year ago won the SB, you're off your rocker. Third, don't go to extremes with this WR thing. You've been advocating a WR purely because the Bills don't have much besides Evans. Parrish and Reed are not built to be #2 receivers. Unfortuantely, there are some that insist on putting on their brainbucket of ignorance and refuse to understand that certain positions carry more weight on the field of play. There are a host of WR's in the past 15 years who made very nice careers. Meanwhile, DL's that can over the long haul consisnently get to the QB are a rare breed. When you have the chance to fill a position so much in demand leaguewide like DL as opposed to finding a #2 WR, well, the decision's pretty easy. The Bills will be more successful in the long term by taking a top DL as opposed to a top WR in the first. Mark it down. That simple concept is lost on so many, including you. Again, the Bills have painted themselves into a corner at WR, much like they did a S and DT in 2006. Ditto for RB and LB in 2007. Now we're facing WR and TE in 2008. What will it be next season?

I assume nothing with the draft. I didn't even say it would need to be a DT selected, but words were placed in my mouth. I simply place a premium on pass rushers over WR at #11 in the draft. Neither Sweed nor Kelly represent the legitimate WR who can stretch the field and dominate. This isn't the Big 12 anymore. OTOH, Roy Williams in 2004 was heralded as a much better talent than any receiver available in this years draft. Even so, it takes two to tango, and only upon having an average QB in Kitna did Williams excel. The chances of a WR changing games is a lot less than a DE with pass-rushing ability, especially in a rookie season. A DE doesn't need someone throwing the ball to them in order to affect the final outcome. Tom Brady learned it the hard way on SB Sunday. Randy Moss, meanwhile, was not so much the receiver without Brady throwing something into his zip code. There will be decent WR's available in round 2. While they may not be instant impact, which the Bills will require because they've ignored the position in FA, Buffalo will have to get by with what they've got or with rookies. It's a sobering thought, but a result of having principle (no 1 year deals for 20somethings) supercede product (desperately needing another WR to assist the development of their QB)

QB is the most important position on the field. Second to that are blindside OT, and a pass rushing DE. Most rational fans see it that way. The Bills have anointed their QB of the future. They've got their potential perennial LT. Their DE's are getting older and cannot win battles with OT's on their own. On the surface, the first position to draft shouldn't be hard. The question for the next month will be: Is it better to grab a potential dominating DL or get another weapon for Edwards? The front office has a hard decision to make, but at this point, they've isolated themselves into going after option 2. As Badol mentioned earlier in the thread, what's better (I'm paraphrasing): A possession WR or a pass rusher who regularly gets to opposing QB's with the first pick? The front office has a habit of being forced a certain way early in the draft. They did it in 06 with Whitner and McCargo. The scenario played out again when they required a RB and LB right away in 2007. Why should it change on draft day this year?

I believe PFT did a little blurb on just why this is a concern. No one's saying Clady is dumb. However, these players have time to practice tests, and if a potential first round pick isn't preparing for a test of mental aptitude, it makes one wonder if they'll study the playbook. Many of the top OT's scored double what Clady did. As much as the NFL is built around physical abilities, the mental aspect of the game is increasingly important IMO. Smarts are becoming the deciding factor in whether a player is able to reach their potential or not.

Clady's score of 13 in the Wonderlic Test should be concerning. Wonderlic Results Kugler may be OL coach, but I don't think he carries enough weight to help sway the front office into making OT the first pick.

After 6 pages of this thread, it's apparent that the draft is far too complicated for the average fan. The oversimplification inherent in these pages becomes mind numbing really quick. (EG: We need a WR, let's take the best available because they're rated high!) It must be stated that certain positions on a football team are more worthwhile. QB's, OL, and DL should always be the priority, unless of course an amazing talent is available at a skill position or that position is held by at least an above average starter. You can always use DL or OL, no matter what. Each draft has strengths and weaknesses. This year, we see a good draft for RB's, while WR and TE aren't particularly strong. DL and OL (particularly OT) have some excellent talents available both at the top and potentially later on. I've repeatedly heard this draft will be about the middle rounds and finding players underneath the surface. How many times do we see teams find guys one year in the mid rounds that contribute the following year or later? I am tired of of those who declare the draft a total crap-shoot, and eschew any sort of opinion because it's the safe bet. On draft day, they celebrate any pick their team makes, because they have total confidence in that front office. That is equally mind numbing as only a few front offices should receive the benefit of the doubt. IMO, the following are (in no order) the best front offices: Indianapolis, New England, NY Giants, San Diego, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh all locate talent more often than not during draft day and make good decisions in the offseason. Not surprisingly these franchises win fairly regularly and enjoy long term success by finding and/or replacing talent more easily than the remaining teams. The NFL is separated by one unique team characteristic: Teams with good front offices win more often than not on gameday. For their short and long term future, the Bills need to start being more like the aforementioned 8 teams, and unlike the majority of the league.

Bill, thanks again for insightful and concise post. You can't break it down much simpler than protecting your QB and getting to opposing QB's. Do those things and the chances of winning become much better. As glaring a need as WR is, if there's a fine pass rusher available, it should be hard for OBD to pass him up. Schobel and Denney are both over 30, and the draft is all about helping tomorrow, not this coming year. That fact may be hard for some to accept, but we've been used to having our top picks step in and start because we had no one else. When your draft picks are starting, it's not necessarily because they're that good. In Buffalo's case, it was because they had so little on the roster. There are still too many issues to address, given that the team has been in rebuild mode for 2+ seasons now. E.G.: The offensive line is perilously thin, and quickly becomes an issue when one player is injured. We know that quite well after Peters was out in the Philly game. While we were hit hard with injuries, our OL remained intact almost the entire season. It was pure luck nothing further happened, and the same can't be expected in 2008. Building a franchise is all about winning on draft day. We won't know it for a 2-3 years, but the good teams draft well every year.

Any draftnik will tell you that straight-line speed is a small part of the picture for an NFL WR. There have been several players without great "measureables" but somehow were successful. One WR who comes to mind is Don Maynard back in the 60s. Check his stats. And then there's Jerry Rice, who ran a 4.6 40. Plenty others became successful without the "requisite" speed desired. Meanwhile, a host of WR's haven't panned out, due in large part to not being crisp route runners or lacking the ablity to recognize and exploit defenses. Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, and Reggie Williams all had great measureables, yet have failed to even come close to living up to their status as first round picks. When considering WR's, I'd place a premium on being able to run precise routes and be able to read defenses above plain speed. For the record, Earl Bennett is listed at 6'1 and 207.

Neither Kelly nor Sweed seem to have the ability to separate from their defender. I don't care if a guy doesn't run a 4.3, but they've got to run precise routes and get into space. Too often, fans are in awe when a guy has size, straight line speed, and comes from a marquee program. Looking back over the past few years, too many guys fitting this profile have failed because they're not able to just beat guys with physical attributes. Troy Williamson, Charles Rogers, and Mike Williams come to mind within the past few years who fit the above criteria of size and decent speed.

The difference last year is there were only 2 first round caliber RB's. This as opposed to the WR class of 08 which does not reflect true first round talents. Mags and ESPN saying a guy is the top of their class means nothing. I'm sure they've ranked their top FB's, K's, and P's as well. It doesn't say the top ranked players at those positions are first rounders. If the Bills don't grab a WR in the first, I can't see them having their guy at 41 either. They'll almost have to make a move.

Franchise a player only to trade them? Never heard of it. Seriously, there's no excuse for this perpetual rebuilding mode. By the beginning of the 08 season, Buffalo will have had three drafts, three free agency periods, and two regular seasons with which to become a successful team. Trading Evans would make this team even younger. It seems like we're always talking about taking a step back now in order to move forward two steps next year or the year after. Frankly, what good is it to be young and have draft picks for a team which hasn't won 10 games or made the playoffs since 1999? Evans should be in the mix, and if not re-signed, will be a giant black mark on this front office. After all, the team has no one else in the receiving game.

I like the article about Tom Cousineau and his bolting to Montreal. That year, the Bills draft yielded Jerry Butler, Smerlas, and Haslett. The most telling comment in the entire article deals with the front office in the wake of Cousineau going to Canada: From that moment Buffalo's 1979 draft was destined to be remembered as the one in which the Bills, who have a long history of front-office bungling, fumbled Tom Cousineau. But another chorus of that old Buffalo favorite, "Wait till next year!" Man, that's a familiar refrain.

Yep, you nailed it. Congrats. Of course ch19079 was making a comparison like the one you're thinking. If you can't see that the Bills are painting themselves into the proverbial corner at WR, it's hopeless. Any front office person in the NFL knew Buffalo was going RB in the first last season. And now, we're back at square one, needing a WR in a draft featuring no blue chip talent at the position. Unfortunately, if they can't trade out of the spot, they'll be forced to go WR earlier than they should. All teams know this, and will use this against Buffalo. Buffalo has no receiving threat among WR's or TE's other than Evans. When one guy is all you've got, it's hard to make secondaries honest. And last year, teams blanketed Evans far too regularly, resulting in one of the worst pass offenses in the NFL. Nothing has been done to address an offense at the bottom of the NFL. No one in the draft will come in and change that. This makes three straight seasons the Bills will look to their top picks to enter the season, start, and make a difference. That's plain ridiculous. Forget about best player available, it'll be best player at WR.

Absolutely agree on smarts. Having the ability to mentally transition from the college game to the pro game cannot be underestimated. I think Carlson's stock ought to rise now that we're five weeks out of the draft. Smart players with good physical ability always trump the more pedestrian thinking players with excellent physical traits. I just don't think we're K-Gun ready, no matter who's taken in the draft. It all comes down to how they use the passing game this year, Carlson, Fred Davis, Keller, whomever. If they want to use the TE, and have the right one, it'll be easier for Edwards. If Royal is the starter, it'll be bad again.

Mike Mayock says there's not one first round caliber WR. Mel Kiper isn't far behind, primarily because there's no Braylon Edwards, Calvin Johnson type talent this year. Kelly, Sweed, and Thomas are all fine players, but not elite talent. And this just in: Dallas will not trade their two firsts (22 & 28) for our first or anyone's outside the top 10. Jerry Jones may be a jerk and below average personnel man, but he's not making that deal. That is, unless McFadden's available, and he won't be at 11. Also, no player named Johnson or Owens went in the first round in 1996. If you're referring to Terrell Owens, he went in the third, due to his small school background. The Bills have backed themselves into a corner at WR. Bryant Johnson wanted a long term deal, as all free agents do. Only when he realized he wasn't going to get it for Stallworth money, he went the one year contract route in an attempt to set himself up for FA 09. B. Johnson and his agent failed to read the market correctly, though he would have given the Bills greater flexibility on draft day. A one year deal for a 26 yr old receiver wasn't in accordance with the Bills plans to build a team nucleus. I have no problem with that, provided the Bills know who's going to be their #2 receiver and know that player can complement Evans. So again this year, the Bills have gaping holes on offense. They've failed to give their young QB options to improve his growth and if they can't trade out of the 11th pick, their options are few. They could reach for a WR, or take best available, which leaves them hoping a second round WR can step in immediately and contribute. This rationale has been used for two years already, and we've seen what happens when you depend on rookies to make the difference.