BillsVet

After 6 pages of this thread, it's apparent that the draft is far too complicated for the average fan. The oversimplification inherent in these pages becomes mind numbing really quick. (EG: We need a WR, let's take the best available because they're rated high!) It must be stated that certain positions on a football team are more worthwhile. QB's, OL, and DL should always be the priority, unless of course an amazing talent is available at a skill position or that position is held by at least an above average starter. You can always use DL or OL, no matter what. Each draft has strengths and weaknesses. This year, we see a good draft for RB's, while WR and TE aren't particularly strong. DL and OL (particularly OT) have some excellent talents available both at the top and potentially later on. I've repeatedly heard this draft will be about the middle rounds and finding players underneath the surface. How many times do we see teams find guys one year in the mid rounds that contribute the following year or later? I am tired of of those who declare the draft a total crap-shoot, and eschew any sort of opinion because it's the safe bet. On draft day, they celebrate any pick their team makes, because they have total confidence in that front office. That is equally mind numbing as only a few front offices should receive the benefit of the doubt. IMO, the following are (in no order) the best front offices: Indianapolis, New England, NY Giants, San Diego, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh all locate talent more often than not during draft day and make good decisions in the offseason. Not surprisingly these franchises win fairly regularly and enjoy long term success by finding and/or replacing talent more easily than the remaining teams. The NFL is separated by one unique team characteristic: Teams with good front offices win more often than not on gameday. For their short and long term future, the Bills need to start being more like the aforementioned 8 teams, and unlike the majority of the league.

Bill, thanks again for insightful and concise post. You can't break it down much simpler than protecting your QB and getting to opposing QB's. Do those things and the chances of winning become much better. As glaring a need as WR is, if there's a fine pass rusher available, it should be hard for OBD to pass him up. Schobel and Denney are both over 30, and the draft is all about helping tomorrow, not this coming year. That fact may be hard for some to accept, but we've been used to having our top picks step in and start because we had no one else. When your draft picks are starting, it's not necessarily because they're that good. In Buffalo's case, it was because they had so little on the roster. There are still too many issues to address, given that the team has been in rebuild mode for 2+ seasons now. E.G.: The offensive line is perilously thin, and quickly becomes an issue when one player is injured. We know that quite well after Peters was out in the Philly game. While we were hit hard with injuries, our OL remained intact almost the entire season. It was pure luck nothing further happened, and the same can't be expected in 2008. Building a franchise is all about winning on draft day. We won't know it for a 2-3 years, but the good teams draft well every year.

Any draftnik will tell you that straight-line speed is a small part of the picture for an NFL WR. There have been several players without great "measureables" but somehow were successful. One WR who comes to mind is Don Maynard back in the 60s. Check his stats. And then there's Jerry Rice, who ran a 4.6 40. Plenty others became successful without the "requisite" speed desired. Meanwhile, a host of WR's haven't panned out, due in large part to not being crisp route runners or lacking the ablity to recognize and exploit defenses. Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, and Reggie Williams all had great measureables, yet have failed to even come close to living up to their status as first round picks. When considering WR's, I'd place a premium on being able to run precise routes and be able to read defenses above plain speed. For the record, Earl Bennett is listed at 6'1 and 207.

Neither Kelly nor Sweed seem to have the ability to separate from their defender. I don't care if a guy doesn't run a 4.3, but they've got to run precise routes and get into space. Too often, fans are in awe when a guy has size, straight line speed, and comes from a marquee program. Looking back over the past few years, too many guys fitting this profile have failed because they're not able to just beat guys with physical attributes. Troy Williamson, Charles Rogers, and Mike Williams come to mind within the past few years who fit the above criteria of size and decent speed.

The difference last year is there were only 2 first round caliber RB's. This as opposed to the WR class of 08 which does not reflect true first round talents. Mags and ESPN saying a guy is the top of their class means nothing. I'm sure they've ranked their top FB's, K's, and P's as well. It doesn't say the top ranked players at those positions are first rounders. If the Bills don't grab a WR in the first, I can't see them having their guy at 41 either. They'll almost have to make a move.

Franchise a player only to trade them? Never heard of it. Seriously, there's no excuse for this perpetual rebuilding mode. By the beginning of the 08 season, Buffalo will have had three drafts, three free agency periods, and two regular seasons with which to become a successful team. Trading Evans would make this team even younger. It seems like we're always talking about taking a step back now in order to move forward two steps next year or the year after. Frankly, what good is it to be young and have draft picks for a team which hasn't won 10 games or made the playoffs since 1999? Evans should be in the mix, and if not re-signed, will be a giant black mark on this front office. After all, the team has no one else in the receiving game.

I like the article about Tom Cousineau and his bolting to Montreal. That year, the Bills draft yielded Jerry Butler, Smerlas, and Haslett. The most telling comment in the entire article deals with the front office in the wake of Cousineau going to Canada: From that moment Buffalo's 1979 draft was destined to be remembered as the one in which the Bills, who have a long history of front-office bungling, fumbled Tom Cousineau. But another chorus of that old Buffalo favorite, "Wait till next year!" Man, that's a familiar refrain.

Yep, you nailed it. Congrats. Of course ch19079 was making a comparison like the one you're thinking. If you can't see that the Bills are painting themselves into the proverbial corner at WR, it's hopeless. Any front office person in the NFL knew Buffalo was going RB in the first last season. And now, we're back at square one, needing a WR in a draft featuring no blue chip talent at the position. Unfortunately, if they can't trade out of the spot, they'll be forced to go WR earlier than they should. All teams know this, and will use this against Buffalo. Buffalo has no receiving threat among WR's or TE's other than Evans. When one guy is all you've got, it's hard to make secondaries honest. And last year, teams blanketed Evans far too regularly, resulting in one of the worst pass offenses in the NFL. Nothing has been done to address an offense at the bottom of the NFL. No one in the draft will come in and change that. This makes three straight seasons the Bills will look to their top picks to enter the season, start, and make a difference. That's plain ridiculous. Forget about best player available, it'll be best player at WR.

Absolutely agree on smarts. Having the ability to mentally transition from the college game to the pro game cannot be underestimated. I think Carlson's stock ought to rise now that we're five weeks out of the draft. Smart players with good physical ability always trump the more pedestrian thinking players with excellent physical traits. I just don't think we're K-Gun ready, no matter who's taken in the draft. It all comes down to how they use the passing game this year, Carlson, Fred Davis, Keller, whomever. If they want to use the TE, and have the right one, it'll be easier for Edwards. If Royal is the starter, it'll be bad again.

Mike Mayock says there's not one first round caliber WR. Mel Kiper isn't far behind, primarily because there's no Braylon Edwards, Calvin Johnson type talent this year. Kelly, Sweed, and Thomas are all fine players, but not elite talent. And this just in: Dallas will not trade their two firsts (22 & 28) for our first or anyone's outside the top 10. Jerry Jones may be a jerk and below average personnel man, but he's not making that deal. That is, unless McFadden's available, and he won't be at 11. Also, no player named Johnson or Owens went in the first round in 1996. If you're referring to Terrell Owens, he went in the third, due to his small school background. The Bills have backed themselves into a corner at WR. Bryant Johnson wanted a long term deal, as all free agents do. Only when he realized he wasn't going to get it for Stallworth money, he went the one year contract route in an attempt to set himself up for FA 09. B. Johnson and his agent failed to read the market correctly, though he would have given the Bills greater flexibility on draft day. A one year deal for a 26 yr old receiver wasn't in accordance with the Bills plans to build a team nucleus. I have no problem with that, provided the Bills know who's going to be their #2 receiver and know that player can complement Evans. So again this year, the Bills have gaping holes on offense. They've failed to give their young QB options to improve his growth and if they can't trade out of the 11th pick, their options are few. They could reach for a WR, or take best available, which leaves them hoping a second round WR can step in immediately and contribute. This rationale has been used for two years already, and we've seen what happens when you depend on rookies to make the difference.

It seems like most Bills fans have forgotten this team was ranked at or near the bottom in most offensive statistical categories. As a result, we get subjects like this to post about. For the record, Buffalo was 30th in total offense, 15th in rushing yards, 30th in passing yards, and 30th in points scored in 2007. Every year Bills fans count on the improvement of younger players. As Badol mentioned, they're counting on the QB (the most important position) to improve, but without the benefit of giving him legitimate options. No #2 WR, little if anything at TE, mean problems for Edwards. For this team to be a legitimate playoff team, they'll need to score more than 16ppg like they did in 2007. Unfortunately, Buffalo has taken on the look of their HC. Hope to win with defense, and maybe the offense scores 20 to win. It didn't work in Chicago for DJ, and it won't work now.

Both Schobel and Denney will be 31 when the season begins. I hadn't realized they were over thirty. At least that's what the Bills website lists their age as. How many times must it be mentioned that you cannot have enough pass rushers? If we haven't learned that after the SB, it won't ever happen. Absolutely. Tripplett had 2 memorable games in 2 seasons. Jax in 2006 and Was in 2007. Outside of that, I couldn't tell he was on the field. Stroud has more size and talent, and I'd take the risk than accept the consequence of lining up guys like Tripplett and Williams. Neither has the size or talent to negate opposing beat most OL's in the middle. Everything starts up front on defense (and offense for that matter) The LB's are in a much better position to make plays, and stop things much closer to the LOS with a bigger DL. I would not have an issue with another pass rusher, especially considering Schobel and Denney are over 30.

Don't forget Mike Schmidt.

I've got no problem with how DJ wins games, but the record shows Jauron's team's haven't been on the winning side nearly enough as a HC. In 7 NFL seasons (career record of 50-67) he's improved little, if any at all. He's never even demonstrated the ability to pick a QB and go with that guy alone. I hope it's not musical chairs this season if Edwards struggles. I don't really don't agree with the defensive talent thing either. Since arriving in Buffalo, the front office has jettisoned Clements, Fletcher, and a wounded and overpaid Spikes. Meanwhile, they've used rookies to fill their places. If anything, the Bills had less defensive talent in 2007 than 2006. Hopefully the young players improve, but banking on rookies to provide the margin for winning is dangerous. One other thing about DJ: Only 10 coaches in NFL History have a worse winning percentage with at least 100 games coached. They are: Marion Campbell, Bart Starr, Bruce Coslet, John McKay, Dan Henning, Ray Perkins, Dom Capers, Norm Van Brocklin, Joe Kuharich, and Leeman Bennett. Hardly the company of coaching greats. NFL Coaches Winning Percentage

PG, I'd add that there are merely spare parts for TE's. The common denominator among playoff caliber teams is having that pass catching TE who poses matchup problems for opposing secondaries down the seam. The Bills have not had a reliable TE in quite some time, and it appears nothing will change this season. Teyo Johnson is a WR in a larger frame without much semblance of blocking skills. Courtney Anderson appears to be bigger, but one wonders why he couldn't make it in Atlanta or Detroit. Schouman has receiving ability, but remains small for the position in the NFL. Royal is the best option, though one with poor hands and an inability to stretch the field. Matt Murphy and Tim Massaquoi are merely campers.

It's a wing and a prayer that an OC who's never done the job after 12 years coaching in the NFL will get this team to being average offensively. The question might be: will DJ let him do the things he wants to do? DJ HC'd teams have never been powers offensively, undoubtedly due to his reliance on making each side of the ball support the other so much. We've seen it time and again how the offense (both in 06 and 07) cannot score, forcing the defense to remain on the field and subsequently yield in the second half. Buffalo will, in all probability now, draft a WR and TE in the first three rounds. However, don't discount the DJ notion of drafting defense early and often. In the past two seasons, the Bills have selected 3 defensive players out of four picks in rounds 1 and 2. It should change, but with DJ having as much say as he does, it may not. Either way, we're again hoping that current players dramatically improve, because the scheme should work, and the players should get better. This very concept was echoed last season, particularly on defense. It didn't work then, and outside of getting a rookie WR to catch 60 balls, it won't happen this year either. There aren't enough options offensively to diversify the scheme like Schonert wants to.

He must be a figure skater who'll compete with Napleon Dynamite for the pair title in Vancouver 2010.

This post is pure insanity. As much as I think Lynch and Edwards will improve this season, you've got to have more than Lee Evans in the passing game, which is all they've got other than the hope Lynch will catches some passes himself. I agree with Obie Wan...if waiting and patience are your strong suits, what's the big deal about having another 2-3 seasons of sub par 7-9, 8-8 seasons? If you're a fan who thinks team accountability and the playoffs are reasonable expectations you'd think otherwise.

I didn't say a thing about a FA WR acquisition. My post demonstrated that it's easier for RB's to become standouts in their rookie season than WR's. After B. Johnson mentioned that the Bills didn't offer enough, I knew he wasn't worth it. I have no issue with the front office allowing him to go elsewhere. However, it puts the pressure on them to find another option for the QB, who needs all the help he can get. As for the WR position, there is no perfect solution. FA's can wreak havoc with team chemistry, and rookies lack experience and NFL savvy. Taking the best WR in the draft should now be the priority, given the lack of weapons on offense. BTW, you're reference to Edwards' habit to use the "drop-off" is short-sighted. Neither Losman nor Edwards attempted much downfield, especially considering the offense Fairychild was running. Edwards and Losman combined attempted only 118 passes out of 444 passes at 21 yards or more, or about 1/4 of their attempts. West Coast Offenses rarely throw deep, and rely on timing in routes.

I've heard Shonka on WGR some mornings, and he's very insightful. You're right though, drafting is not a one or two round event, especially considering how important it is to acquire cheaper talent in the salary cap era. You look at all the late round "finds" and it's those guys that make a team better and it's the best scouts and front offices finding these guys. The Giants have set the standard for second day picks, along with San Diego, Indy, New England, even Philadelphia. It's no wonder they're the more successful franchises.

You've neglected to realize the point about the college to NFL development curve of RB's versus WR's. As has been mentioned numerous times on this board, RB's generally make a quick impact while WR's require more time to develop and transition into the pro game. Put simply, playing RB in the NFL is more instinctual, while receivers must adapt to a host of new coverages and the speed of NFL DB's. Buffalo didn't ink Brown last year because they knew it'd easier to find a more viable alternative in the first round. Brown's always had durability issues, and he once again lived up to it this season. Finding a WR becomes paramount in this draft, provided the front office makes no further deals at the position. To expect a first or second round receiver to play at the level of an average NFL wideout is much more improbable than thinking that way with running backs.

Chris Brown on his blog noted that Buffalo wasn't willing to give a one year deal to a 26 year old. I understand this, given that the Bills are trying to build around a core group, and having a guy in for one year who could be out the door doesn't fit into that. Then again, having a guy in for one year and drafting a receiver to play should that guy leave shouldn't be ruled out either. If BJ wanted money, he found the right place with the 49ers. Production as a WR won't happen though, but he went to a division rival in SF without a decent starting QB

6'2 is big enough, especially given that he's carrying 215 pounds on that frame. Braylon Edwards has similar size, as does Fitzgerald. Finding a Burress is not an every year type thing, with 6'5 receivers with speed very rare. The knock on Thomas is he drops some balls, at least that's Mayock's issue with him. He's not got 3-4 years as a regular and/or starter at Michigan State, but not all players blossom in college. I'm just not a fan of these players who seem to become great after the season. I would hope the braintrust doesn't fall in love with him based on the combine and individual workouts. The tape on him in a segment Mayock showed showed he took a bad route a few times, but had the ability to get better with good coaching.

I think they'll find or even have a FB, but that's not the point here. As for LB, I can't seen them getting younger at the position. They've already allocated a 2nd rounder in 07 (Posluszny) and a good FA signing this year (Mitchell) so I cannot see Rivers. Unless they've got a CB they really like, and I think my head would explode if they use another high resource on a DB, it's readily apparent they've got little choice. IMO, the biggest areas of need (in order) are the following: WR TE CB C OL Depth S Granted, it's my amateur opinion, but the weapons on offense are few and far between. They can have a run first offense, but without more receiving threats, you'll see plenty of 8 and 9 guys in the box. Diversifying the offense should be priority number one in the first two rounds, unless something drops to them.

Now that draft day is quickly approaching (6 weeks tomorrow) I've seen numerous guides available on newsstands. I purchased Sporting News and must say it's downright terrible. The rankings are askew, demonstrated by their ranking Jake Long and Vernon Gholston as second round talent. To me it appears they've banked on name recognition alone or just did poor research and stopped altogether after about November. Pro Football Weekly's isn't bad and had some of the recent rising prospects. Anyone else have any notes on which guides they prefer? I'd heard ESPN isn't putting on out this year.