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Everything posted by BillsVet
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ESPN Omon Article Thought this was a good read on someone who's been flying under the radar. Hadn't realized he'd been through so much. Also sounds like Derek Fine is a funny guy. Sorry if already posted.
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Was that 5-11 record in 2005 a product of being devoid of talent or poor coaching.? Meathead was completely stupid, and yet the season before was 9-7. How then can you describe that it was talent which was the reason for their 2005 losses? The 2006 draft, in time, will prove to be about two players, neither of whom have established themselves into above-average players, but may very will. I'm speaking of Whitner and McCargo. The others, Youboty, Simpson, K. Williams, Ellison, Merz, and Pennington are or will not be starting quality. Butler could very well be a good starter, but it's hard judging guard play. All in all, there was no massive rebuild that needed to happen. The improvement from 5-11 to 7-9 should have occurred, with the talent on the roster. I'd say 2005 was underperforming due to bad coaching.
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Almost completely devoid of talent? ML/DJ inherited a team with Evans, Reed, Parrish, Peters, McGahee, Schobel, Kelsay, Denney, Clements, Fletcher-Baker, Spikes, Greer, McGee, Lindell, and Moorman. This was not a total rebuild a la Miami or Atlanta. ML/DJ made it more difficult for themselves. Of course they've drafted well. Most of their picks in rounds 1-5 have had to start by virtue of their incessant shedding of players. How many of those late picks will be average to good starters in two years? We know Ellison, Pennington, and K. Williams won't be as all of them have been replaced two years after being drafted. Hardy roaming free? You must assume there are no safeties involved, or linebackers floating in zone coverage like T2 teams run. This is nonsense, Hardy's presence alone will not prevent double teams from Evans, unless he's destroying coverages. How much respect does a rookie WR get anyway? Remember, this is a team with a developing QB, and no proven pass-catching TE. Fantasy football is always the means by which we should judge players.
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Hardy's size alone will not keep defenses from shading toward Evans. He'll have to prove he's dangerous, and not just in the RZ. Unless he's consistently embarrassing opponents the length of the field, teams aren't going to respect a player because he's taller. It may work initially, but not long term. Eventually he's going to have to make some plays. That's putting a lot of pressure on a rookie WR to take the focus from an established star. Hardly the scenario an offensive coordinator wants when trying to spark an anemic offense. This team, for three straight years, has depended heavily on rookies. Whitner, McCargo, Simpson, Lynch, Posluszny, Edwards and now McKelvin and Hardy. If rookies are getting so much PT each year, what does that say about the front office?
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It's apparent Jauron isn't worried so much about 2009, but rather keeping his job after 2008. He's been given every opportunity to succeed after the acquisitions of this off-season. Bryant Johnson realized he wasn't getting the long term deal he figured to get. He signed for one year in SF. If Edwards has been anointed the starter, and he has, shouldn't the franchise surround him with all the talent to win as quickly as possible? Everyone knows if just one guard or tackle goes down, it's Kirk Chambers and Jason Whittle to the rescue. Meanwhile, the Bills offense will rely heavily on a rookie at WR. I daresay they'd have been better off grooming Hardy under a Bryant Johnson, allowing Johnson to leave, and getting Hardy to start in his second year. Then again, why support your starting QB with OL and WR's. This team's never really done that, across the Donahoe, Levy, and quasi-Brandon eras.
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PG, I'd be interested to see how many of those 06 picks are starting just two years later. We know Kyle Williams, Keith Ellison, and perhaps even Simpson won't be. What's that say about the 2006 team? IMO, it means they were so darn thin they had to start these guys. It was a 7-9 season, and those "starters" aren't going to be starting anymore. This speaks less to the quality of the draft and more to the degree they stripped this team. The Bills talked about not signing FA's to one year deals. Well, that's a great principle, but it could hurt in the long run, especially because WR's take time to develop. Bryant Johnson, DJ Hackett, and others were available for a pittance. Apparently the FO wanted to go the cheaper route and draft someone who'll take time. Buffalo always drafts for needs in the first two rounds. They've done it in three straight drafts with Whitner, McCargo, Lynch, Posluszny, McKelvin, and Hardy. If you're drafting for need three years running, something's wrong with those who build the team. And BTW, isn't Buffalo about 22M below the cap? It's absurd to talk about 2-3M when they've got so much room to navigate. This is the prime reason they draft for need, and why it'll take a minimum of three years to get this team out of playoff jail.
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Yeah, if it was between an Edwards or the 10th rated guard, no question you've got to go with Edwards. In a league where perhaps 1/3 of the teams have a decent QB, that's more than acceptable. We can sit here all day and go back and forth over what to take in the mid rounds, but the team has made their decision on OL. Hopefully there aren't any catastrophic injuries this season, but that's a risk in and of itself. It's been said before here many times that if you think you've got a franchise QB, find the players to surround him with. That goes not only for skill positions, but also in the trenches as well.
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I think that's all some are saying in this thread. IMO, most fans like the 07 and 08 drafts on the surface. The one detail which has been overlooked is not drafting OL, with no OL picked before round 5 in three straight drafts.
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Dibs, I think it'd have been ridiculous to go with Branden Albert, Jeff Otah, Chris Williams, et al in the first. On that I can agree. I can also see the need to go WR and DE in the 2nd and 3rd. The Bills generally have a need in the 1st and 2nd, and they use those rounds to fill needs. They did it in 06, 07, and now in 08. In the fourth, it sounded like their draft board wasn't stressing OL. There was talk that had Martin Rucker or Lowery (who went to NYJ) been available, they'd have selected one of them. That's speculation, but decent OL were available. I will also agree that you cannot bash a draft just days afterward for the difference in opinion over a 4th or 5th round pick. With that in mind, I don't understand how, in two consecutive years, the Bills have drafted the same position in the first four rounds. Last year Lynch and Wright went 1st and 4th. This year, same with McKelvin and Corner.
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Tell me when DB's can pass protect for a QB in the pocket. Tell me when they run block to give your RB a chance to get more than 4 ypc. Please. San Francisco paid a king's ransom for their secondary (Clements, Michael Lewis, et al) and still their team is poor. Part of it is related to QB play, and part is due to a lackluster OL they've only recently began to address. My reasoning for DJ being the deciding factor in picks? How about he's a former NFL DB? How about Day 1 in 2006? With extreme weaknesses on OL and DL, they take 3 DB's in their first 4 picks. Predominantly in rounds 1-3, Buffalo's taken a host of defensive players. Think that's not related to the HC? I do. Especially considering that 6 of their 9 picks in rounds 1-3 the past three drafts have been defenders. And that's considering they already had Schobel, Kelsay, McGee, Crowell, and signed Stround, Mitchell, S. Johnson, and Tripplett. Yes, DJ is the decider at OBD on draft day.
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After two complete drafts, two free agency periods, and two seasons worth of games, the OLdepth still isn't a priority? When you've got Kirk Chambers, a street free agent, Duke Preston, who needs no introduction, and Whittle, who's 33 and missed most of last season, it better be. Liberally using FA is the penalty for drafting poorly. All teams with long term success draft well. Case in point: NE, IND, SD, NYG, GB, perhaps JAC, PHI, and PIT. As for the OL, no one is saying that it's required to use a first each year there. However, as Dawgg pointed out in an earlier post, finding good OG's is possible in the mid-rounds. This team eschews the OL, because they believe they've got solid starters and backups. Thing is, they don't. Not at least the backups. The priorities on a football team will always be: 1. QB 2. OL (specifically at LT) 3. DL (specifically a pass rushers) Once those pieces are in place, it's much easier to win. DJ and Marv lucked into Jason Peters just as Donahoe did. If OL depth is not a weakness, then DB's aren't either. OL almost always trumps a defensive secondary in importance to the team. Then again, not to this HC. And if people think Modrak makes the final decision on draft day, I think it's safe to now say he doesn't. Modrak prepares everyone for the draft, and Jauron, because his head is in the noose, is getting to make the picks. How else can you describe 7 DB's taken in 3 years?
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While DJ's had his run of draft day, Buffalo's spent four late picks (out of 26 total selections) on OL in three drafts. That's practically nothing. Pennington and Merz were cut, Bell is a project, and Butler starts because Whittle and Preston were all the competition he had last year in camp. Any real fan knows that using free agency liberally is a penalty for drafting poorly. The Bills under Donahoe didn't draft decent OL and went with bargain basement types. In 2006-07, the Buffalo was forced to pay through the nose for free agent OL (Dockery, Walker, and Fowler) and somehow that negates having to use a first day pick for an OL? Wouldn't it be better to have options on OL in case of injury as opposed to options at CB in a C2 defense?
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It's amazing how, with a team bereft of talent, people think late round picks making a thin roster is a success. Not to say the 08 late round picks are complete garbage (they're not-yet) but the chances a 5th, 6th, or 7th round pick makes the team and plays well is slim to almost none. I'd refer people to Draft History and review the picks made from rounds 5-7. Usually, not more than 3-5 players become good NFL starters from those rounds. The rest don't cut it. UDFA's probably have more success because there are so many of them. Most teams sign 10 or more each offseason. That's 320 players versus only about 100 picked in those three late rounds.
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Under Jauron, the Bills have spent exactly 4 draft picks out of 26 on OL. By contrast, they've selected 7 DB's. None of the OL picked came before the fifth round. Two of them (Pennington and Merz) were cut. Of the two remaining, one starts (Butler) and another is a project (Bell) who'll probably be on the PS if he makes it. Whittle and Chambers are the only decent backups and represent a significant drop-off in talent from the starter. Just one injury on the OL could force this team to make a huge departure in gameplanning. That's a risk no front office should take. Then again, with DJ having so much input with no GM, it's not hard to see them taking those 7 DB's versus 4 late round OL.
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What happens when a supervisor has been given the produce or else speech from higher? They start micromanaging everything and make it a point to stand over the shoulder of all their people. Bill, I'd agree with you. All the bluster about Schonert changing things up and creating an offense that is high powered is unfounded. Schonert made the following comment on being hired: "We're going to be more diversified than the past two years," said Schonert. "I'm probably going to be a more aggressive play caller than what we saw last year. I can't say what we're going to be to this point, but I know where I want us to be." Does anyone think Jauron will allow a first time OC to do this? Nothing since the year 2001 gives me this impression.
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How about this gem after the season finale against Philly? "Offensively we did a pretty good job of not turning (the ball) over. I think the fact that we didn't turn the ball over today at all, and didn't have very many penalties in that football game, kept us in the game. Obviously, the fact that we don't score, we don't get it in the endzone, is the difference in the football game.
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At this point, Dick Jauron's greatest enemy is not any other team. It's himself. All too often in his coaching career, he's demonstrated an inability to win against better teams. The latest examples remain the Dallas and Denver games from last season. Those were perfectly winnable games which, because of incompetent coaching, went down as losses. What about 2006? Anyone recall the San Diego game when 2 timeouts were used to review a Peerless Price non-catch? Or losing at Detroit when Roy Williams ran roughshod over the secondary? Tennessee anyone in 2006? There is a trend here, and it's not going away. People talk about continuity, but if the HC is continually bad, little will change. Some will say it's DJ's lack of personnel. That may have been the case in 06 and parts of 07 but won't be that way in 08. Buffalo has been rebuilding since DJ became HC in 06 and this season, barring injuries to the entire team, I expect to see a playoff team. That's the worst case scenario. Anything less is unacceptable.
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Why is Jauron always saddled with QB problems? This is a guy who's had complete personnel authority for two franchises and hasn't figured it out. IMO, you can't blame QB play when the coach is in charge of getting the person to play the position! If he's not finding the right guy to play under center, it's his own dang fault.
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Let's face it, Jauron's 2001 season bought him some more time in Chicago. Jerry Angelo came in there prepared to clean house after 2001, but ended up with Jauron for what he probably thought was one more season. Even after going 4-12 in 02, Jauron wasn't DFA'd. It's amazing how reading this thread people become so defensive about Jauron. (no pun intended) I don't understand the allegiance to a HC who's made it into the playoffs once in 7 full seasons and promptly lost his only post-season game, despite being a #1 seed. This season there will be no excuses. The talent level is much higher and I expect to see Jauron do the same things he's featured in the past. Essentially, win with defense, force turnovers, and score just enough. No frills, no flash, just grind it out running the ball. Of course, we know this doesn't work against good teams, who rarely make mistakes. If Jauron can't get it done this season, he never will. Now that he has the lion's share of personnel power, it's now his team to win or lose. For DJ, he's in a perfect situation in Buffalo. He doesn't have a GM over him, and has IMO, near full personnel authority. He's never really had a GM to overule him, and we're seeing the draft become the Dick Jauron show. I truly believe Brandon lets Dick do what he wants, because Brandon admits to himself that he's new to the personnel side of the franchise.
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Who writes that stuff? He does this...he does that... I'm not saying both McKelvin and Hardy are bad, (they'll be fine) but seriously, who the heck is nfldraftblitz and are they even paying these people?
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If only it was a permanent vacation.
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What's his 40 time? J/K
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Wayne Fontes was coach of the year. It's been mentioned before on this board. You seem to think that award makes a coach instantly credible. When DJ's career record is brought up for conversation, someone chimes in with his QB situation. He didn't have Joe Montana in Chicago, but he was there for five seasons and never found the right QB. Doesn't this frighten fans, especially in light of the fact that a 2nd year QB will take the field this year for Buffalo? Personally, I think Trent gets it. He's going to have some growing pains, but will improve a great deal in 2008. I've seen Jauron coached teams lose games they should win and rarely win games they shouldn't. The Patriots, Jets, Lions and Titatns in 06. Then in 2007, the Broncos, Cowboys, and Eagles. The only two games they should't have won came against Jacksonville in 06 and Washington this past year. Sense a trend?
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A technique question about how we ran our D scheme
BillsVet replied to Pyrite Gal's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I've got no issue with DJ being loyal to his staff. Ultimately he's the deciding factor on anything when it concerns gameplanning and mid-game adjustments. He has demonstrated an unwillingness to change his whole career, and if it happens, takes place after the game. It wasn't working that day and I believe is emblematic of Jauron's inability to adapt in-game. Look, this was two seasons ago and I'm not going to cry over spilt milk. The fact is, you need good corners, Tampa 2 or not. The greatest key to the Cover 2 is generating a pass rush with the front four. I think the Bills will be better able to do that with Stroud being able to draw double teams and McCargo playing the "3." -
Well, lets see: Career 50-67 record (.430 winning percentage) 7 of his 8 seasons have reflected teams ranked 20th or below in points scored. 5 of his 8 seasons have reflected teams ranked 20th or below in points allowed 0-1 career playoff record DJ did not turn this franchise around. His first year here was a 7-9 result. His second year was a 7-9 result. He's had a lot of control on draft day, and that was more evident this year than ever. He knows he must produce this season or he'll be coaching the Swampscott Pop Warner team next season. The ball is rolling in the right direction? It should be, he's had 32 games, 8 more preseason contests, 26 draft picks, three free agencies, and enters a third offseason of of mini-camps, OTA's, and training camp. The ball should be going downhill by now.