BillsVet

Hard to believe the Bills are almost 22M beneath the cap. And fans around here are worried about a few million. Amazing. Then again, that's par for the course.

I, like many on this board, thought of you yesterday Bill. Without having met you, I know you weren't thrilled. I have a hard time standing idly by, having season tickets, and seeing the philosophy of this team so flawed. Having no GM, and worse, no plan for the future of the franchise (at least publicized) and a HC with a terrible career record can be daunting. But alas, I will remain a Bills fan, because what else is there?

Apparently, the Bills will be getting the ball at their opponent's 20 yard line this season to start drives. obie is correct, in that they didn't throw the ball into the endzone much anyway. Regardless, Hardy had serious issues matching up against Jake Ikegwuono from Wisonsin and Vontae Davis if Illinois, two very good CB's. Put simply, Hardy did not play well against better CB's, although he abused Justin King, who was not good this year and wasn't a first day pick. 12 of his 16 TD's came against Indiana State, Western Michigan, Akron, Minnesota, Ball State, Northwestern and King's Penn State.

Brad Cottam has had so many surgeries, it's hard to believe he'll be durable. Measureables are one thing, but his health is another. He's challenging Mark Schlereth for total surgeries, and he hasn't made it to the NFL yet. For my money, Kellen Davis is the best option at TE.

This team's HC is defensive minded, almost to a fault. He exercised no control over the former OC who couldn't call plays for a Pop Warner team. DJ has immense say in who this team drafts, given that the COO isn't a personnel guy. Hopefully Modrak can remind Dick his offense was ranked near the bottom in almost every category save rushing. It would not surprise me to see a CB in round 1, although with all the resources devoted to the defense in the off-season, it's hard to look at the offense and think that magically this team will improve. I could accept a pass rusher, but a CB will be a disaster. Who's Trent going to throw to?

Not Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin. Can't see it happening regardless. He wants a large contract, and it would jack up the price for Evans.

It says that Larry Tripplett was a swing and a miss. Stroud is a different type of DT than Tripplett or K. Williams, both of whom were thrown out of the way on a regular basis. Stroud was also the Bills letting go of the smaller and quicker philosophy which hasn't exactly panned out. I don't think the comparison carries weight. My take on obtaining Sheppard is that Buffalo allowed NC to go in FA, and now may (and I only mean potentially) be adding a top CB who will demand a long term deal worth many millions. Why couldn't the Bills have worked out something with NC after franchising him in Febraury 2006? I'm very sure a deal wouldn't have been in the neighborhood of what he got when FA began in March 2007 because we all know the price jumps when every team has a shot at a guy. That's as opposed to when one team has rights like Buffalo did when they franchised him. Or the Bills could have done what GB did with Corey Williams. Besides, this defense doesn't need elite corners.

The Bills aren't big on handing out large contracts to CB's. If they swing a trade for Sheppard, what does that say about the fiasco surrounding NC two years ago? Essentially, if Buffalo makes this trade, it means they prefer players from other systems over their own drafted players. Remember, minus Marv, this is the same front office that potentially would make this deal that said no to NC.

That you Orenthal?

So a guy goes and studies the top 2 rounds of the last seven drafts for SB teams, declares his findings, and it's disputed? Arguing with Raimus is like yelling at what Raimus rhymes with...you'll never get anywhere. It's like trying to tell a blind man what Niagara Falls looks like. Amazingly, people still don't understand that the game is won in the trenches and with QB's. Go figure, Losman wasn't good, the OL had guys like Villarrial, Gandy, and Fowler starting one season. The DT's were sub 300 pounders pushed out of the way like a bully taking candy from a kindergartner. No playoffs? Makes plenty of sense. Good teams draft DL, as a matter of fact. Not surprisingly, the Bills starting front four this coming season were all originally drafted in either rounds 1 or 2! And we wonder if DL isn't important!

Why do people reason it's not as important to select a CB in the first? When your DL and OL aren't strong, that's when. Buffalo drafted a DB with 3 of their first 4 picks two years ago, despite having a DT pairing headlined by a guy who couldn't start in Indianapolis (Tripplett) nothing else. The OL in 2006? Peters, Villarrial, Fowler, Reyes, and Gandy. (not to mention Duke Preston!) We later found out the interior DL, along with the entire OL minus Peters, was just plain bad. Now that Buffalo has improved (on paper wrt the DL) at the LOS, I can see them going to the periphery of the field. It just made no sense in 2006, and it never will, especially considering it was a top 10 pick. It's why this year, a host of good lineman (J. Long, C. Long, Gholston, Dorsey, Ellis, Clady, Albert, C. Williams, Otah, Cherilus, Harvey) will go in the top 30. Not bashing you, but it seems like explaining the theory of big men first on this board is like trying to teach oneself Sanskrit.

Thanks. Great read. Brandt is the best expert out there. Interesting that he's got John Carlson as the top TE. Keller is Tier 7.

This Smith mock serves fits him to a "T." After his display on MNF, he's nothing more than Eric Dickerson with a bigger forehead.

I really don't understand the afinity for DRC. He's certainly tall, but his lanky frame does not lend itself to playing the run tough, which is what the C2 calls for. IMO, man coverage is too overated for the Bills, and it's pointed out time and time again. For my money, Brandon Flowers, Antoine Cason, or even McKelvin if available are better suited to the Bills scheme. DRC and Aqib Talib have bust written all over them, especially in a C2 defense.

When did NC clone himself to play all four defensive secondary positions. We've established that a secondary relies heavily on the pass rush. Last I checked SF didn't have much of that either. It'll start a whole new brouhaha, but franchising Clements in 06 was step 1 into keeping him long term. I can't recall the last player who received the franchise tag and subsequently did their one year and went to another team. This is about long term strategy, not short term thinking. No one's saying that what SF paid NC is what he's worth. Obviously, SF leads the league in money spent AND bad season records. So universally saying NC was an 80M dollar players (when he's probably only going to see 64M) is simple simon thinking. If the Bills draft a CB in round 1, it's the closest they'll come to admitting it was a mistake to franchise NC for no reason back in 06.

Brandon is a bright guy, I'm not arguing that. But taking a sales director and making that person a project manager for a defense contractor isn't going to work, not matter how smart that person is. You cannot change course and become successful without the experience. Despite articles praising Brandon's work on the personnel side, it's been a modest attempt while he handled the business/marketing angle. Modrak has been in scouting for years. And let's not hide who Jauron is either. He's one of only 10 NFL HC's in HISTORY with 100+ games coached and less than a .430 winning percentage. The others are Leeman Bennett, Joe Kuharich, Bart Starr, Norm Van Brocklin, Bruce Coslet, Dom Capers, Ray Perkins, Dan Henning, John McKay, and Marion Campbell. Hardly wonderful company. Again, the Bills are the only team in the NFL without a veritable GM or VP or Personnel. If, and I mean only if, this team isn't successful in 2008, there willbe some changes, and it will give some around here the opportunity to say the team needs to start over again.

It's not about how much information Brandon has been fed from Modrak. The point is who makes up the personnel department? Modrak is the VP of College Scouting and Guy is the VP of Pro Scouting. Brandon is a newbie, although savvy. I feel that despite all the articles touting his abilities, his background (unlike Modrak) is not in personnel. Nowhere did I say the posters at TSW know more. Among NFL front offices, Buffalo's doesn't rank real high, at least at this point. My question remains: who makes the final decision on draft day when there's a dispute? If it's complete consensus, that's the wrong answer. I would point out the triumvirate of decision makers is Modrak (who I like) Brandon (who's inexperienced) and Jauron. (who's a mediocre HC) Why then does this scenario breed much confidence, emphasizing my point that Modrak is the only experienced personnel guy. If Ralph is doing anything besides nodding yes when his hand-picked men say something, he's interfering. Most teams' owners aren't going all out a la Jerry Jones. Bob Krafts, Spanos, Jim Irsay, the Tisch's/Mara's, none of them are getting in the way in the war room. They've got actual GM's who handle that sort of thing for them. They know to trust those people, because the Pats*, Chargers, Colts, and Giants all have outstanding personnel departments. Buffalo has a COO.

It's okay to take a CB in the first round, if both lines are solid. Buffalo's OL has been vastly improved in the past two seasons, but the DL still needs help. Who are the pass rushers on this team and what is their long term future? Both Schobel and Denney are 30+ and Kelsay is not the rusher from the LDE position needed to put significant pressure on QB's. The addition of Stroud should make the rest of the DL better. I just can't see drafting a CB when there are impact DE's like Derrick Harvey on the board, assuming that takes place. It's been said many times around here that the draft is about the future, and not merely the approaching season. My greatest fear is DJ knows his a** is on the line and will look to add a player that will help now. They could look for the most NFL-ready guy, even if that player doesn't have the long term potential. Then again, it's DJ's year to win, and aside from Modrak, there isn't a soul in the front office who knows personnel. If it's a CB in round 1, you'll know it's DJ. Three DB's in 2006 wasn't enough I guess.

Absolutely. BTW, what are/is McShay's credential(s)? Analysts like Kiper and Mayock I understand, as they've been around the league for years. Gil Brandt is about as knowledgeable as they come. McShay, IMO, is another ESPN creation we're instantly supposed to cite as an "expert." Scouts Inc. is nothing more than an internet thing, and if Jeremy Green's associated with it, the believability factor in about zero. These characters make their predictions and fill air-time or internet sites as a result. Nothing more. It'd be nice to do a comprehensive study to see who's the most accurate over the past 3 years on not only predicting picks, but also who actually pans out of the players they hype. Sadly, no one's out there talking up their swings and subsequent misses.

Where is Arbitron when you need them?

Economy of force. No one's going to take a possession receiver with a top 10 pick. At the same time, a player with the physical attributes to start and dominate at LT isn't going in the third round either. If possible, you trade down if your needs aren't DE, OLT, QB, or the player you wanted is gone. It all comes back to priorities on the field of play. A pass rushing DE is a huge priority today, same as when Freeney was picked. It was the same situation when Bruce Smith was the top pick in 1985. Nothing has ever changed when it comes to finding guys who get to the QB. OTOH, safeties are found all over the place. There aren't many legitimate pass rushers found in the 4th round however. and no one drafts punters and kickers in the first round, outside of Al Davis. I'd agree, big agile lineman are usually taken in the first round. However, if you're looking for a safety, which is not in demand like DE's, OLT's, and QB's, your chances are much improved with finding someone lower. (Cue the Michael Huff reference and comparison)

You've forgotten DeMarcus Ware, who is an excellent rush linebacker. Parcells has a track record of going into a bad situation and turning it around. He's done that four times in 3 different decades. The Giants were a mess in the early eighties. He didn't have a great QB until motivating Simms. He re-did the Pats pre Belichick, then the Jets. He went to Dallas with an idiot owner masquerading as a GM and made the playoffs with Quincy freaking Carter as a QB. Sure, Romo was a UDFA, but everyone (including Sean Payton) knew the guy was a very good QB waiting to happen. Payton wanted to Romo when he left Dallas. Parcells, is a winner. He cleans up organizations, and I'm sure he'll do the same in Miami. If he succeeds in getting the top pick to take less money than JaMarcus Russell, he's going to be a hero to other front office executives. BTW, Schopp sucks. And Bulldog can't get his foot out of his mouth. When the latter puts a sentence together, perhaps I'll listen more often.

I guess standards are slightly low already, and we're four months away from the start of a new season. When you sign three new defensive players, two who address significant needs, you up the ante significantly. This defense has few excuses in my book. Finally the front seven has some reinforcements, and there are no excuses this year. There shouldn't be too many more 120+ rush yards allowed per game efforts either. There's a DT on this team bigger than 300 lbs, and isn't that what's been preached on this board for quite some time? On offense, nothing has been done to improve a 30th ranked squad which now has a rookie OC, 2nd year QB, a workhorse RB, no decent TE, a new OL coach, a good but not great OL, and exactly one dependable receiving threat. Then again, we'll find some rookies who'll come in and produce like veterans. That seems to be the rallying cry each year. 9-7 and no playoffs? How about no more excuses because most Bills fans have heard it all by this point. I cannot fathom the thought of going into 2009 with the chance to make it 10 years without a postseason appearance. It's been said many times that the Dick Jauron story always ends poorly. How much more does a HC need than 3 drafts, 3 free agencies, and 48 games to prove his mettle? Apparently some would anoint DJ as HC for life, with results optional.

Thanks for the article Lori. This is the first story I read about JP's injury coming in training camp. At the time it occurred I was in Iraq and missed pretty much all of 2004. I'd like to know why Schopp goes out of his way to admit his novice understanding of football. I've never heard on-air talent simultaneously ignorant and arrogant but Schopp is. Leading with out of town hockey this afternoon was radio insanity. I'm not saying they need to lead with the draft every day, but this is Buffalo, and hockey season is over. I guess Schopp didn't get that memo. What's next? Tennis? Competition in this market is the only answer to GR's pathetic personalities.

The Draft per PFW It's been said the draft is a crapshoot, but I'd rather have more chances than less if that's truly the case. Not surprisingly, New England*, Indy, and San Diego lead the way in finding late and undrafted talent. "Right off the bat, we found incontrovertible evidence of the value and importance of the NFL draft. Ten teams have had 43 or more total draft choices over the past five seasons, and six were in the playoffs last season. The Titans have had 50 picks, followed by the Packers (49), Buccaneers (46), Patriots and Jaguars (44), and Colts (43). Of the teams with 43-plus selections, only the Rams with 47 picks, 49ers (46), Raiders (44) and Eagles (43), who won eight games in 2007 and have been in the playoffs three of the past five seasons, were not in the playoffs this past year."