Coaches are not going to go by some big data analysis of historical games. He's going to take things like, how is my defense playing? At that time, good. If I kick a FG and then they kick a FG I'm within a TD still. Makes sense.
Coaches like Coach McDermott don't want to risk it all on one play when they don't have to. They call it "extending the game". It's who he is. Deal with it.