I've seen 1st rounders shipped out for much bigger question marks - over and over. As for Kelly shipping him out for nothing - if it happens, it will be for the same reason why many college-to-NFL coaches fail - ego. These coaches are used to walking on water and think they can in the NFL too. What's worse is that Kelly had a winning season his 1st year - inflating his ego even more. Truth is, he hasn't been around the NFL long enough to know how hard it is to win the NFL, especially without a QB. This isn't college where you can just plug in the next guy up and continue winning.
This is perhaps why I don't believe this story; it would be incredibly stupid to part ways with a starting QB with really no one else on the team to fill the void. Even if he were to draft one in the 1st next Spring, you never send a starting QB packing (the Bills being the most recent example if this).
As for the Bills, if they have Foles playing the way he is this year, they'd be in the playoff hunt. If they have Foles of last year, they're heading to the Super Bowl. Either scenario, I take the gamble.