
keepthefaith
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Everything posted by keepthefaith
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You haven't made any point. Post some numbers and whatever it is you're trying to say.
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What's your point?
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Thank you. That really adds to the discussion.
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I think there will be a lasting impact in the form of U.S. and other countries thinking twice about establishing new manufacturing or continuing manufacturing in China. Without a friendly and cooperative relationship between governments, there is risk in having a supply chain run through there. The other risk for the U.S. though is that China will soon be the largest economy and it's very easy for a communist regime to prevent or severely limit the distribution of goods from the U.S. or U.S. companies.
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OK, this explanation appreciated. I've had the opportunity 3 times to attend a small group presentation by Gus Faucher and in those presentations he's given some similar numbers talking about debt/GDP and interest expense. So theoretically, meaning looking at a bunch of numbers on a page or slide, you economist theorists (that's not a slam) offer theoretical comfort. I question how durable is the mechanism of available capital to continually fund our debt. Using very rough numbers if there is $4T available annually among global investors today to cover deficit/interest/annual rollover, what assurance is there that this will still be the case when that number becomes $6T or 8T. Will there be a group of investors/institutions who are still willing to take a very low return on their capital? How do we know? How much does the risk of an interruption to this "system" of funding grow as we pile on more an more debt? To me, all theories and analysis aside, most things in life are not forever. Small problems left unchecked become big problems. To the untrained eye there seems to be a lot of moving parts in this chain of debt financing. To me a breakdown, a hiccup or a change in investor behavior or capability is only a matter of time. At the rate that debt is accumulating, it seems likely to me that a hard fall is in the making.
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Full disclosure, I'm not an economics professional but have a great deal of interest in this debate and the posts by you and GG. So the U.S. ability to deficit spend and finance new and rolling debt is contingent on the ongoing ability to finance that debt which has not been a problem. We have $22T in debt now and we're essentially committed to 10's of trillions more in the next couple decades or so based on forecasts for mandatory entitlement spending. Nobody feels this. The sun rises and sets every day and debt gets financed. What happens if there is an economic event that causes buyers of our debt to turn away or demand much higher rates? What then? Forecasts for debt service costs 10 years from now are about $1T per year. Add to that annual deficits and in the not too distant future we're looking at financing let's say $4T a year in new and rolling debt. What then? Still no problem?
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Joe just had a Mueller moment.
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Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
keepthefaith replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
And arguably less qualified than the Mayor. -
Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread
keepthefaith replied to snafu's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
He's a well spoken guy with poor policy positions and very thin experience for the job he now seeks. -
The Deep State War Heats Up :ph34r:
keepthefaith replied to Deranged Rhino's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I too own a business and our experience here in Illinois is that the premium increases for health insurance have ratcheted up significantly since about 2011. We certainly had increases before then and above inflation but nothing like what we've seen since Obamacare which mandated additional coverages we didn't want to buy, rates families of 6 the same as families of 3 (that might be Illinois law only, don't know) and caused private insurers to increase rates to cover additional Medicaid recipients and subsidized individuals. We've had at least 4 years since then with 20+% and even above 30% annual increases. That and we've been subjected to the Obamacare tax. It's been very painful for the company and the employees here. -
For the most part I agree but not entirely. For example, if both parties could come to the obvious conclusion that we need to much better secure our southern border, tighten up asylum laws, move on making a pathway to citizenship for minors that came here years ago, implement e-verify or similar and act on deporting non-citizen criminals - those changes could get done quickly. It's a no-brainer. Same could be said for some fiscal revisions to discretionary spending and entitlement funding. There is some painfully obvious stuff that could be and should be solved where it is painfully obvious what needs to be done.
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He's a ***** tool.
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The Deep State War Heats Up :ph34r:
keepthefaith replied to Deranged Rhino's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
There is nothing "fine" about the ACA. It has contributed significantly to double digit annual rate hikes and the rise in deductibles for private insurance due to mandated coverages, and the increase in government funded (Medicaid) care which forces providers to accept way below market rates. It's a cluster _ _ _ _. -
Occasi-Cortez Channeling the Rent's too damn high guy
keepthefaith replied to bdutton's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
AOC, take a good look at Nancy's bowling pin boobies. Those are yours in 40 years. -
2019 NFL Season: Your BOLD predictions
keepthefaith replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
That's a bold prediction right there. -
OK Tibs, imagine an olympic sized swimming pool, 50 meters long and full of water. The water in the pool represents all of the beliefs and support for those beliefs about Hillary and Donald held by the U.S. population of voters. Those beliefs are formed from years of exposure to both of these individuals. In addition to the years of exposure there is the 2016 dem and rep debates, the presidential debates, campaign ads, countless weeks and months of news coverage, negative info such as Hillary emails and Trump grab them by the kitty, speeches by the candidates, campaign rallies, voter's party affiliations and voter dialogue among friends/family/ co-workers. Then the Russians add some water to the pool in the form of some facebook pages, tweets and a few other bits. How much water do you think that Russian "influence" added to the pool? Maybe a shot glass or a tea cup? Come on man, this Russian meddling you rant about doesn't add to squat in the grand scheme of what influenced voter behavior. Has even one person come forward in 3 years to say oh ***** I was duped by the Russians? You know damn well if even one of those persons existed, the MSM would make them headline news.
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Global warming err Climate change HOAX
keepthefaith replied to Very wide right's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Yeah, well we had the coldest low ever is some areas around Chicago this past winter except for the ice age which we somehow got out of long before man burned anything.