Tasker

The best we can reasonably project maybe. Higher than Vegas should go on the over/under for wins, sure. A cautious prudent not-wanting-to-be-disappointed, fine. But the best we can hope for? This is the NFL. Stuff turns around so quickly, and things rarely go according to plans. We could have easily been 8-8 last year with Mularky, Mike Williams, and Shelton. We are better at QB, better at RB (game calling and blocking), better at TE, better OL, better WR (sorry Eric, I really liked you), better at DL, better at LB, better secondary, and better coaching. All this from a team that wouldn't have caused an uproar if they went 8-8 last year. I know our punter is a year older and coming off a career year that could probably mean a little drop off. I think expecting the team to go 7-9 or 8-8 is pretty reasonable and don't fault anybody for predicting it. I think that if things don't go well 6-10 could happen, and I think that if things go very well 9-7 could happen, with 10-6 about as unlikely as 5-11, but both possible. So saying you expect 8-8 is fine, but saying that 8-8 is probably "the best we can hope for" just seems a little off to me. I'm hoping for 1-0 so we can try to get to 2-0. And I'm hoping for a winning season, and while optimisitic, I don't think I'm crazy to do so. Records the season after a 5-11 season since 2000: 05 TAM *11-5* 05 CHI *11-5* 05 OAK 4-12 05 TEN 4-12 04 CLE 4-12 04 JAC 9-7 04 HOU 7-9 04 DET 6-10 04 ATL *11-5* 03 DAL 10-6 03 ARI 4-12 02 SDG 8-8 02 DAL 5-11 02 MIN 6-10 01 NE *11-5* 01 DAL 5-11 01 CHI *13-3* 00 PHI *11-5* 00 ATL 4-12 19 teams, 7 made it to 10 or more wins the following year (37%). Of course 7 also won five or fewer games (and only 5 times 6-9 wins). So many things went wrong last year, that if the ball gets rolling this year, things could be brighter than some people think.

Hopefully this will be the kind of thing that can let them end the competition. That way I can return to liking KH as our backup (I never rooted against Frank Reich in practices...but I love hearing bad news from KH). I have a feeling they will let this drag on for a while longer unless JP outshines KH against Carolina. Clearly JP has been solid in the deep passing game. Hopefully he can relax and hit Royal and dump to Willis and hit the receivers on short routes as well. But in the words of Allen Iverson "we're talking about practice". I know it matters a lot in football, but the preseason games matter a lot more, and I don't think an off evening practice ends KH's hopes.

Yes but we are feeding the troll. I know it is hard, but if you ignore the dumb stuff it will go away, or at least seem like it while you are ignoring it. Someone who can't spell two of the three players he lists as talented and leaves off McGee, Spikes, Schoebel, Evans, McGahee probably can just be ignored and we can save our energy for worthwhile discussions.

I don't know why I'm feeding this troll. Topics like this should be left to die without any answers, and our board will be better for it. But #8 picks don't change the world. It is just important that you get the best football player to contribute a lot to your team over a five year span. I think Dante will be an excellent pick by comparison to the guys who could have been picked at #8 (Bunkley, Ngata, QBs). That doesn't mean getting a trade for better value wouldn't have been cool (I think we could have done it but got scared, but you never know), or that having one of the QBs stay in the top 7 and pushing us Huff instead of Whitner wouldn't have been cool. But that's not what happened. What is important now is that we got a very talented football player and hoepfully our talent evaluations will prove successful, and we will be very happy with this guy. Personally I like our draft, and think it will prove a solid foundation away from the Tom Donohue era. Here are the last 10 #8 picks just for reference. I think Dante can clearly be a good player in comparison to these guys, and be considered a good #8 pick down the road. 1996: Carolina Tim Biakabutuka RB Michigan 1997: N.Y. Jets James Farrior ILB Virginia 1998: Dallas Greg Ellis DE North Carolina 1999: Arizona David Boston WR Ohio State 2000: Pittsburgh Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State 2001: Chicago David Terrell WR Michigan 2002: Dallas Roy Williams SS Oklahoma 2003: Carolina Jordan Gross T Utah 2004: Atlanta DeAngelo Hall CB Virginia Tech 2005: Arizona Antrel Rolle CB Miami

9 Ernie Sims Lions LB Florida State 10 Matt Leinart Cardinals QB USC 11 Jay Cutler Broncos QB Vanderbilt 12 Haloti Ngata Ravens DT Oregon 13 Kamerion Wimbley Browns LB Florida State 14 Brodrick Bunkley Eagles DT Florida State 15 Tye Hill Rams DB Clemson The way the top 7 went (Cutler and Leinart who we didn't want falling out), I don't know if I like any of these guys more than Whitner. Bunkley is interesting, but not a character guy, not better than Triplett, and would have been a reach. Ngata has been beaten to death, and I don't think he will be a star, but his career coin could come up heads or tails. Sims, Wimbley, Hill? No chance. So this discussion is really two questions: 1) Will Bunkley/Ngata the consensus picks for the Bills be better football players than Whitner? With what I know now my guess is no, but we will ahve to wait and see 2) Should we have taken a QB instead? This is more complicated but as a big JPL fan, and knowing how many high quarterbacks are busts anyways, I think it would have been a dumb move. Can't wait for Whitner to get into camp. The one thing I did not expect from him was a holdout (which I view as a character issue, not a business decision), but I think this has a pretty good chance of seeming like a very good pick looking back in a few years, if not already so this season (which is too soon to judge).

Last year we needed 9 or 10 wins and the playoffs to be happy, and that was unrealistic. We were a better team than the five wins we posted. This year nobody really expects us to get to 8-8. I don't forsee the playoffs, but I think the rebuilding will happen faster than people thing, and that a solid season is possible. I see 8-8 a lot more likely than battling for the number one pick in the draft.

I don't think we have made much progress in the JPL vs KH discussionsince they stopped playing football half a year ago. I'm hugely in the JPL camp, and stick to wanting to see him start 16 games. I think his accuracy was inexperience, weak line and gameplan, and injury (New England), and is WAY too small a sample size to draw many conclusions. 228 attempts are not enough. I think all of these should improve this year, and he should be better. I would expect Holcomb to be no better and likely a little worse because he is older. JP is betting on the future (a bet I think we will win) with some good short term upside too. KH is settling for mediocre right now and ignoring the future. We are a rebuilding year (but better than people think), KH might have made sense LAST year when we were pretending to be good and win now at all costs. This year we are building to the Super Bowl in 2009. JP gives us a better chance of getting there, and I think gives us better odds at each 7, 8, and 9 wins this year (5 or 6 and who cares, 10 or more are out of reach). Nall is interesting, but I think a backup and someone who has proven less than JP, is less talented, and is older, so he has an uphill battle. I think having to compete for QB and having a better line and running game, JP will have less of a hero pressure, and will actually end up losing a little bit of the exciting down field stuff and make a few dumps and TE passes and actually play a little more like Holcomb than he did last year, while still having all of the upside. But I'm just a Bills fan in June, so what do I know.

Obviously it would have been better to trade down to 15 and take Whitner, and to stay put in the 2nd and take McCargo, but there are some pretty big doubt as to if those players would have been available, and potentially a big dropoff in talent if they were not. No, I don't think Marv played a masterful chess game in evaluating everybody else's situations and getting the absolute best possible positioning in the draft. But I think he got two really solid players in the first round, and solid players through the rest of the draft. No glamour in this draft...no crafty manipulative risk taking genius...but this is a very good draft which is going to help our football team get better. I'm not going to start throwing around projections, but I think we were better than 5-11 last year, and I think we have gotten better this off season. Give Willis the ball, let JPL play in a running offense, and play good D, and good things will happen. Go Bills.

Back to the topic of Ko, I think it is pretty amazing that we have ended up with three DBs who had received some first round grades. And I'm pretty happy getting the two DTs. I know people are going to get mad about not addressing OL, but unless Brick fell on our lap, it was going to be hard to get someone who can contribute quickly, and we have been moving in free agency. I think this draft won't lead to many happy Bills fan parties right away, but I think we will look at this draft in a couple years and be pretty happy with it, and it might have a bigger impact in 2006 than a lot of people are expecting.

I think these two players are good fits, and will help our team. I don't doubt their talent. If Detroit had a chance of taking Dante at #9, trading down would have meant losing him, but I don't know how likely that would have been. We used our first two picks on these guys, and gave up a third rounder for the right to do it. I would have prefered to have traded down and picked Dante, and stayed where I was to take McCargo, so instead of giving up a third, we would have gotten a second or third. But we will never know if that was possible, if McCargo would have fallen all the way to our second, or if Detroit would have taken Dante. I'm a but puzzled overall, but I can live with these picks. I'm not sure if Marv played the chess game the best he could have, but I will trust his ability to pick out great players well above any of ours, and in three years we can look back and see how good these moves were.

After all the need issues and what Marv might do, and trading down talk, which of the players predicted to be available at #8 do you think will develop into the best football player by the 2009 season? (I'm exlcuding Bush, Williams, Hawk, Brick, Leinart, Davis, and Young as the probably top 7, although obviously somebody could fall) Bunkley Ngata Justice Cutler Huff Someone else? I am going with Bunkley.

Having some deals on the table and talked through as possibilities makes sense so negotiating isn't at the last minute. Having an official conditional deal locked in seems a little hard to do before Draft Day. Anything to get the most value from this draft, and if a Cutler or Young-happy team will give us more value, I love trading down, and talking through the possibility before draft day as well.

Wow I agree with everybody. This is the first thread in a while where everybody is making sense. Let's get some great talented football players based on what they will give us in the next five years. If Justice is better than Davis, that's fine. But if we don't really think he is better, we are going to feel dumb four years from now when he is average and Davis is going to pro bowls and making big plays. And we will only be able to say "yeah, but our line wasn't good in 2005 and we really wanted to make it to 8-8 in 2006 regardless of our future". Now if we can get Marv in agreement with us, this draft can be a positive step forward to winning a Super Bowl in a couple years.

I'm in favor of trading down if the trade down is right. They have too many needs to get two mediocre players instead of one impact player, so trading down no matter what makes about as much sense as taking a lineman no matter what. But if we can find a team that wants to pick at #8 more than we do (because of Cutler, Huff, whoever) and they will give us more value, let's do it.

This would make me very happy. Ngata is not one of the seven best players in this draft, and having an inferior player taken in the top 7 improves who we can take at #8, or the value of that pick if we trade down. I don't think it is likely, but you never know.

I like both of these guys, and look forward to the season as we take another step towards building a super bowl champion.

Best post this week, although I have to add an "if we think that QB at #8 is better than the other players". I think that trading down is going to make sense since Ngata, Justice, or Bunkley will be available after #8, so why not get some extra picks? Perceived value controls whether we can trade down, so if another team perceives Cutler to be worth more than we do, trade down with that team (and hope our perception is right). Our value projection controls who we pick at a given spot, so if we stay at #8 we should pick the best player available, which would be any of the five you listed, but if they are gone COULD be a QB. But if we can't trade down, we have to decide if we think Cutler is a better football player than Bunkley or Ngata or Justice or Huff. I'm not sure it is 100% certain, and if it isn't clear I'd lean away from QB (faith in Losman) and to the lines. But only if I honestly think that player is better than Cutler (in value over replacement player, to borrow a term from baseball). But I see our best move as picking one of your five if they slide, or trading down (not too far I hope) for a Cutler-happy team and still getting one of the players we target.

Right, you can't ignore football results, and you can't count workout performance and times and reps more than tape of people playing football. But on tape a guy who is a very good football player and seems very fast can be a different NFL guy if it turns out that fast and athletic guy runs 4.3. instead of 4.4 or if he jumps 41" instead of 37" he is going to be able to adjust to the NFL even more quickly. 4.3 is better than 4.4 when all things are equal. But your point can't be any more important that taking an athlete instead of a football player is just silly, no matter how fast he runs or high he jumps. Workout results can be used to split hairs between players who seem very similar on tape.

You don't cut Favre. You lose more in terms of respect and loyalty than you gain (if you gain anything which is unclear). Cal Ripken could probably have been released at the end too, but it doesn't happen, and people remember for years. As the Packers you plan on him not being there, and take a surprise if he comes back. This isn't going to affect the draft, because you are going to take Hawk and not Young. If Favre plays, he will be better than the alternatives, and if he stops they have to rebuild with Aaron Rogers. If there was a huge difference from a football perspective you could make a case, but I just don't see it.

Exactly. I said it at the time, winning for the 30 players carrying over on the roster is probably worth as much as a few extra spots in the draft. Right now we feel like there is a huge difference, but pick the right players, and try to win more this season too. Top of the draft does not build champions as much as winning and building a winning football team. To do that winning matters more, even in a 5-11 season, than moving up a few spots.

I love the trade down if we can get added value. With a QB at 8, I think that has a good chance, and with us really liking not top 8 players like Justice and Bunkley, I see some scenarios where this can happen, but it takes two to dance, and we need a team that will give is a deal that will add value. But I'd start working the phones, and definitely make sure I answer even if it is 830pm and marv is already in bed watching Matlock reruns on TBS.

Bunkley at 8 is a reach, especially if you are putting Ngata in the top 7...someone is dropping who is better than Bunkley. I'm like Bunkley, and Justice even more, but both are a reach at 8. A RB in the second round is silly. He would have to so clearly be the best player available by a long shot, and I don't see that happening. I'm a best player available guy above needs, but a RB or QB takes a little extra justification at this point, and really needs to be the best talent by a large margin to be justified.

Are we kidding here? Are we absolutely crazy? Nate will be fine, but if we can get a better corner in a trade, sure. But the Willis stuff drives me crazy. This is an April optional minicamp. Willis is a stud, and was tearing up the league until Mularkey told him to shut up and started going away from him in the gameplan (swing pass to Shelton, etc). Get behind him, give him the ball, and cheer like hell as he establishes him as one of the top backs in the league, and takes pressure off of our QB and D. He is excited about the new coaching staff, was at the workouts a couple weeks ago, and will bring it for 16 games starting in the fall.

But only if we like Justice + whatever they give us more than Davis. I'd pick Davis over Justice right now (even though I'd love a tackle, and really like Justice), so it would come down to what they are offering us. Don't Baltimore and Cleveland like Ngata enough to move up? And who higher up than the Vikings would like Cutler? Right now I think Justice and Bunkley are exciting values, but probably can be had lower than #8. Especially if we are open to having either of them (and wouldn't get our hearts broken if one of them is gone when we pick lower) then we can probably find something that would work. I think we should consider all the trade down offers, and try to make some ourselves, but only follow through if we are coming out on top and in better shape than taking the best player at #8.

I know these are THE big 7 now, but that doesn't mean they are OUR big 7. Still I think you can make a case for all of these players being better than the alternatives at #8, and realistically I would probably pick any of the seven you listed before anybody you didn't list. If it was a QB falling I would rather trade down because another team will value them more highly than we do, but I don't think I would pass on Bush, D'Brick, Hawk, Davis, or Mario to pick anybody else at #8. A lot can happen on and before draft day, so we have to be agile and smart, and three years from now have people giving us the A for this draft.