Tasker

Leaving the flame wars and snap stuff, I think the reason that workouts can shoot players up is because the NFL game is bigger, stronger, faster, and more intelligent than the college game. The best college players don't become the best pro players, so you need to evaluate more than just their college performance. Players who show NFL caliber or better speed and strength have an improved chance of translating their skills to the NFL. So when a player shows in workouts performance that exceeds how you had evaluated that player's performance, that certainly improves their valuation. Winston Justice was a highly rated Tackle, but blocking college players successfully isn't a good enough indicator of future ability. Studying film and examining performance are probably most valuable, but when you see a guy that big do a vertical jump that high, you get an improved understanding of his explosive lower body strength that potentially could have been underestimated to that point. That strength will be valuable in run blocking and pass blocking, and gives you an idea that the player has the physical tools to continue to express his talents as his opponents get bigger, stronger, faster, and more skilled. Vernon Davis was a very fast and talented tight end before his workouts, and everyone realized his physical ability. But he is able to do different things if he is faster than all linebackers and most DBs. Watching him play at Maryland doesn't necessarily give the frame of reference to know how fast he is, but running a 4.3 40 lets you know that he is off the tight end charts. If that was a 4.4-4.5 40 he would still be fast for someone that big, but less likely to use his speed to blow past NFL players. All that said, I think workout numbers can be valuable, but I think in most cases they are slightly over valued, and a player can be much much better understood by evaluating their football performance over 3 or 4 college seasons.

I'm getting a little tired of the Roscoe bashing. This was not TD's worst move. Tell me someone from picks 56-85 who is clearly a better player or who would have had a much bigger impact on the 2006 season? And Roscoe would have had a bigger impact if not for his injury and still has a lot of upside. We need to improve our lines overall and neglecting them was a mistake in past drafts. But not with any one pick in particular, and not because of Roscoe's height.

I don't mind dropping, because I like some players who aren't really worth #8, and otherwise wouldn't go that high (Justice and Bunkley). But it will take a lot more than a second round pick to get us to drop to #17. That's nine spots. By comparison when the Jets moved up 9 spots in 2003 to take Robertson, (from 13 to 4, so a little different), they gave up the #22 pick and a 4th rounder. I certainly hope that we can use a Cutler happy team to take a player like Bunkley or Justice who we really like and might easily slip beyond #8, but any trade down has to give us more value, not just more picks, and that is a careful valuation of players available, etc.

Trading down could be great since some of the players we want most are not worthy of #8 (Bunkley and Justice), and with one of the three QBs falling out of the top 7 we could probably entice someone. But it depends 100% on the deal. We need to add value trading down, and if we go more than a couple spots we need to make up for it in a big way. I really like the idea of moving down to 12-16 if we can add a useful pick and still get someone we value like Bunkley or Justice. Too bad Detroit isn't in the market for a QB anymore, or we would have better leverage for a team trying to grab a QB, but oh well...

Nice story, but I feel very sure of one thing: when we look back at the players who were available at #8 in this draft two, three, or four years from now, we will not consider Ngata the best of them. I'm not confident of his ability or work ethic or devotion to football. I don't see a lot of talk about football, high energy, excitement, and the times I've seen him personally he hasn't seemed to do much other than be big. Big is good, but not enough. If we pick him, I will change my tune and become a big Ngata fan, because I'm an optimist and loyal fan (other than Holcomb), but I really hope he isn't our pick right now.

I would be happy with D'Brick or Davis or Huff and definitely Hawk. No need to mention the whole need vs. best player stuff anymore. The people who talk about need are in another universe full of 6-10 and 7-9 football teams. We don't improve this team by getting less talented players because we like where they play on the field...that's the path to mediocrity. What I'm wondering, is what are the chances that two years from now Justice is better than D'Brick? I throw that out as one option, but we are sure to see surprises two years from now, and this draft won't be what people thought. So let's hope our draft guys are smarter or luckier than the competition. That's the way the 2009 announcers will say "This Super Bowl run really started in 2006 with that draft. The first draft after firing GM Donohue, the Bills nailed it, and have two pro bowlers and five total starters to show for it."

I think our line is improved, and not good enough yet. I would like to see it improve in this draft, and we will definitely take somebody, whether at #8 or a little later. And we could still sign somebody like Tutan Reyes. I'm really glad we haven't overspent in panic, because building super bowl teams is about assigning resources well, not saying "I need a Lineman, I'll pay whatever it takes". This year I'm looking for a solid 8-8 with 16 starts from JPL, MaGahee running on 1st and goal and staying in on third down sometimes. With that plan we would could have been 8-8 last year, and I think we are a better football team now. Then if we can win a game or two more and surprise the league, even better, but I want to build a team that can win a super bowl in four or five years more than I want to win now at all costs.

Thanks. So now all we need is One Bills Drive to figure out how to make some great decisions and become the small market miracle of professional sports. Who is this year's Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams? Who is this year's Kearse, Alexander, Seymour, Steve Smith, Rothlesberger, Larry Johnson? Some of it clearly seems to be the luck of the draw, and if so I hope we are lucky, but some of it also is doing a better job evaluating and choosing, and that is where I hope the Bills can start to set themselves apart. I think Bunkley and Justice both have the upside potential to be looked at as the steals of this draft, but I'm not the one to outsmart the football world, so hopefully the Bills have some really smart ideas up their sleeves. I have more faith in Marv than Donahue, so I think we will be alright.

I see Leinart to the Titans, but he could still go #2 with a trade up, and Young #3. But I agree with the smokescreen stuff too. This draft could be very predictable or unpredictable, depending on how agressively some GMs try to outsmart their competitors and make daring moves. Some years it happens, and some it doesn't, but it usually isn't predicted. I can't wait for draft day as a fan, because it will be exiting to see how it goes, then we can all get back to the reality that the draft doesn't have as big an immediate impact as we pretend, and very few rookies make big first year contributions, and in most drafts the top five picks don't end up being the top players. 1999: Top 5: Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Edgerrin, Ricky Williams Not top 5: Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, Culpepper, Kearse, Ekuban 2000: Top 5: Courtney Brown, Arrington, Samuels, Warrick, Lewis Not top 5: Burress, Urlacher, Abraham, Alexander, Pennington 2001: Top 5: Vick, Leondard Davis, Gerard Warren, Justin Smith, LT Not top 5: Seymour, Brees, McAllister, Chambers, Steve Smith 2002: Top 5: Carr, Peppers, Harrington, Mike Williams, Jammer Not top 5: Freeney, Shockey, Bentley, Roy Williams, Randle El 2003: Top 5: Palmer, Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson, Dewayne Roberston, Terence Newman Not top 5: Leftwich, Polamalu, McGahee, Larry Johnson, Suggs 2004: Top 5: Eli, Gallery, Fitzgerald, Rivers, Sean Taylor Not top 5: Roethlisberger, Lee Evans, DeAngello Hall, Tatum Bell, Vilma Not an exact science, but not once were the top five picks the top five players.

My worry with Davis is his ability to catch, not block. From what I have read and seen, he does not have above average hands, and a good catching tight end needs that. Drafting him as a big WR is not the point, and his quickness probably matters a lot more than his 40 speed, but he's pretty amazing at both. I think if he is good at catching the ball, he will be an outstanding football player, and will be able to use his quickness to get open short, and occasionally use mismatches to go deep, and probably be terriffic at run after the catch. Worries about his hands (or blocking) aside, I would love him at #8, and would take him over Ngata, Huff, or Bunkley in a heartbeat. I think he will alter what defenses have to do, and make Evans, Roscoe, and Willis all more dangerous, in addition to the damage he inflicts personally. As a blocker, remember that because of his downfield ability, he won't often be lining up against run stuffers, so he can push the more mobile player who would be covering him out of the way. Right now I have long given up on my Mario dreams (back when he wasn't a top 5 pick), and think Davis would do more to make us a better football team than anybode else. Maybe trading down and getting Buckly or Justice plus another pick would be better, but I don't see a bigger impact available at #8.

Especially when there is no patience. We all know JP did some great things at times last year. He needs to prove he can grow and be consistent, but he has the ability, and many QBs need time. I just hope he gets 16 starts this season, and we accept the season as a rebuilding year with a solid draft and a few more signings.

You said best Athlete. That is not what we want. We wantto draft the best football player, and that is an important difference. Davis is a better athlete than Hawk, but Hawk is regarded as a better football player. And don't fall in love with the "needs" argument, they don't win super bowls, and if you aren't going to try to do that, what's the point? We need to keep drafting the best football players year after year, and use free agency to fill holes. If that doesn't work this year because there aren't good DTs or whatever available, it isn't the end of the world. Our team + Ngata is not going to be that different then our team + Huff or our team + Davis in 2006, and we need to look beyond 2006 when drafting. By next offseason our needs and our free agent options will be different, and we will feel dumb if we got an inferior player in the draft because the superior player didn't play the right position of the moment. If we can find a way through smart picks or trading down to focus on our lines when we take the best football players I will be very happy, but only if the players available at each pick make that make sense.

I don't think Huff is going to be our best pick, because I think he isn't going to be the best football player available when we pick. If he is, I'm happy to get him. Trading down and taking Justice or Bunkley (neither of whom are top 8 picks), especially for a team who wants Cutler will probably make the most sense, but otherwise we need to get the best football player, and Huff is in the running to be that. But there is good depth at DB in this draft, and I think we can get a better player with #8 in most scenarios.

I don't see this draft playing out like this, but I won't nitpick. I like Bunkley and think over the next five years he will be a much better football player than Ngata. But I would love to drop a little because I think he could fall a little further if we didn't pick him. If Cutler falls I would agressively try to trade down with a team that wants him, because that could get us an extra pick, and still get us Bunkley or Justice.

Well, he is bigger than I am, and it is a sport and a position where being big helps, so that is working in his favor. Just about everything else is working against him in my mind. If he exceeds expectations, great, more power to him, and he will join lots of low round picks who did exactly that. But no way we take him at #8, and our guys are smart enough to know that. We take the best football player available at #8 or trade down, and it is very very clear that Ngata is not going to be the best football player available at #8.

The Bills aren't going anywhere. Even with the new CBA they will be profitable. And the most important thing in my eyes is that if LA is filled by the Bills and not an expansion franchise, Ralph gets rich, and the NFL does not get to sell the francise rights to the highest bidder. We are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars, and the other owners don't want to lose that payday.

I think Davis could be the best pick, and her rediculous upside. I'd love Hawk as well, and I can live with Justice or Bunkley if we trade down and take them in 12-15 range with an extra pick somewhere else. One trade down option would be taking Ngata, and if someone we like is available at 12 for Cleveland, giving them Ngata for that player plus a pick. Lots of good options if we do two things: 1) Evaluate talent better than any of us forum junkies are able to do. 2) Try to get the best football player(s) with each draft pick by making rational decisions.

I completley agree with the best football player logic. This should account for 90% or so of the decision. It can be impacted somewhat by need (O-Line) lack of need (Starting RB) or silliness (Punter), but you have to get the best help you can out of the draft. Needs change too fast to have positional advnatages coverup for inferior talent. When things are really close (since talent appraisal is not an exact science) you can lean towards need, but only when it is a coin flip. Hawk is appraised at being a better football player than Ngata. If we have both available we pick Hawk, even though we need DT more than LB right now. And when we are making a super bowl run in four years we will thank ourselves for it. If you really really don't think you need the best player available, that is a situation to trade down, not to reach for an inferior player with the same pick.

I'd rather see it on TV, and probably wouldn't pay $20, but why not? We enjoy wasting time watching and talking about football, and the draft is pretty interesting stuff, especially without playoffs for so long. Seeing more of these guys sounds interesting and will add to the draft enjoyment. So chill, and if you don't want one, don't buy one. Also, please list everything you have spent money on in the last year, so we can find something to ridicule you for if you continue putting people down.

Willams and Hawk are players you take on talent, if you don't trade down. It won't matter, because they will both be gone. A 39 inch vertical doesn't matter for jumping, but is instead an indicator of explosive lower body power, which is particularly run friendly. Just like Bunkley isn't likely to get an on field bench press, his 43 reps show strength that allows arm tackles not to be broken, etc. Davis will never run a 4.3 padless 40 in a game, but it shows he will be able to burn any LB, and mismatch DBs on size & strength. Don't draft just on these numbers, but don't act like they don't matter.

This might sound like an overly simple thing to say, but it is being assumed by what you just said, and might not be true: Trading down because we need help is only a good idea if we get more help by trading down. Granted we have a few more more spots in the starting lineup that could be improved by B+ players, and possibly by B- players. If you can give up an A to get multiple B+ players, that's great (or another A- and something else), but giving it up for B- players will help make us a B- team no matter how many we get. So trading down is fine if we find a deal that allows us to get more value. I am very very open to trading down, but only if there is a team that really wants to move up enough to make it worth our while. This could happen if one of the three QBs falls to #8, and someone wants to leapfrog to get them. But I don't think Cleveland would give us enough value to move up and get Ngata, for example.

I think we have to back off the Mike Williams worries. He was a bust, and we move on. He wasn't a bust because he moved from RT to LT. He wasn't a bust because he is from Texas. He was a bust because he didn't turn into a good football player, which it sure seemed like he could have. I wouldn't mind if Justice turns out to be the best player available, and we pick him #8, but it doesn't seem likley. From what I know at this point as a fan, I don't think he is as good a talent or football player as Davis or Huff, but could move ahead of Bunkley and Ngata on our list, and be reason to trade down too if the right deal shows up. All things being equal I would love to draft an o-lineman, but we can't let that cloud our judgement and pick an inferior o-lineman over trading down or picking a more talented player

True enough. I'll give you the difference between 97 and 96 to fill the trenches. But if you have Davis at 97 and Ngata at 87? Huff at 94 and Ngata at 86? What do you think Bellicheck would give each of those three guys? If Ngata is great, I will be very happy to take him. But we can't overrate him because of what we wish he would be. We have to evaluate what this guy is going to do in Buffalo over the next five years, and compare that with the other options. Draft the best players = build the best football team Draft for needs = build a well rounded but mediocre football team Drafting needs gets us to 8-8 faster, and delays any hopes of being a Super Bowl contender.

I keep hearing "NEED". Yes we need lineman and to improve our lines. That should have been the number one goal of free agency, and is a pretty good overall philosophy for the draft. That said, what we really need is great football players. I think everybody seems to agree that Hawk is a much better football player than Ngata. That Huff is very likely a better football player than Justice. That Davis is a superior football player to Bunkley. Five years from now we are going to feel silly if Davis is a pro bowl game-changer for somebody else, and we have Justice who we figure out is similar to lots of 2nd round guys. Or if Huff is making a huge difference for another team, and Ngata is hurt and average and taking up space for us. I don't mean the player's talent starting five years from now, but their accumulated value over those five years. These decisions are more easily measurable in baseball where you can clearly compare player values, but in football it will not be as quantifiable, but you will still know. I would love if the careful evaluation shows Ngata or Bunkley or Justice would be better than these other guys, and we can outsmart the conventional wisdom. Maybe Huff is not football fast or plays a position where extra talent has less of an impact. Maybe Hawk is overhyped and will prove average in the NFL. Maybe Davis has bad hands and can't block, and maybe Ngata is the real deal and will prove to have Junior Seau's heart on the inside. All that would be great. But we need to base our draft based on the players and our best evaluations of them, and not on our current roster. And we need to try to make better evaluations of talent and value than our rivals do (this is New England's model). We need to get the best players available with every pick in this draft and every draft. There will be enough picks where we have choices because it is not clear cut, and we can tailor those picks to lean towards our needs (currently on both lines) at least as far as we are unable to address needs in free agency (which should be our first goal). This is important stuff if you care about winning. This is the difference between being the Oakland A's and the Kansas City Royals (for those who follow baseball), or between New England and the Redskins.

This is one of the more thoughtful discussions recently. I just hope the front office is being as thoughtful. My philosophy is trading up and trading down are both great ideas if the deal is right. Extra picks in the 2nd and 3rd could do a lot to improve this team, so if moving down from #8 gives us the right deal and a good mid round pick to get a Bunkley or someone, go for it. Moving up for Mario Williams would be outstanding, and potentially up less for someone else. The question is what we have to give up to do it. We have to be ready to move up, move down, or stay based on what OTHER teams are willing to do. Dealing with New Orleans at #2 seems a little silly, because there is enough Leinart interest from other teams to not get value here. If New Orleans will make us a good deal, I'm very happy, but I see it as unlikely. Maybe Tennessee at #3 still wants a QB and sees Young falling to #8. So they could be interested in a swap, either of picks, or of players after picked (they pick Mario, we pick Young if he falls, and we swap giving them something else in the process, etc). Cleveland wants Ngata and would move to #8 for an additional pick, and we pick Bunkley at #12? Sounds reasonable if the pick is good. Broncos would give up #15 and a second rounder to move up? Might make sense if we don't think there is someone really special at #8, and want more depth. So the right deal would make moving up or down a great idea, but it depends on the team we are dealing with, because we want to take advantage of their emotions to make our situation better than staying at #8 (whether win-win, or taking them for a ride, either way is fine). We need to put preconceived notions aside, and figure out the best way to get the most help for our football team in the years to come. All that said, if all three QBs are off the board, there will be some serious quality at #8 and I would be tempted to stay. If one of the three QBs is on the board, I think our best bet might be trading down for someone who wants him.