Orton's Arm

I was against the trade for Bledsoe, because I didn't think he had enough left in the tank to be worth a first round pick. I have deep-seated doubts about Losman. I don't like the idea of all those first round picks going to one position any more than you do, but if there's a chance to draft the guy who will put the QB question to bed, we should do it. Once Dallas, for example, had Aikman, they were able to focus all their attention on the non-QB positions. But the Bills have had an unsettled QB position, which they've tried to use quick fixes to solve (Rob Johnson trade, Bledsoe trade, Losman trade, etc.). Can Losman put the QB positon to rest the same way Kelly did? I don't think he can.

Bingo! The Bills should avoid taking a chance on a QB, and going with a sure thing in a lineman. History shows that every lineman--offensive or defensive--chosen in the first round turns out to be a solid player at the very least. The Bills proved this by taking Erik Flowers in the 1st back in 2000, and Mike Williams 4th overall in 2002.

"Excuse me, Mr. Wilson. I have a proposition for you. It involves spending your money." "You mean the money I've worked my whole life earning?" "Um, yes. You see, this proposition involves a $14 million check to an offensive lineman." "Well, I strongly feel the Bills should upgrade their offensive line. How many Pro Bowls has this guy been to?" "Um, none." "Okay then. How many years is the deal for? With this big a check, I'd think it'd have to be for at least five years." "Um, actually Ralph, it's for just one year." "Well, I do know left tackle is important, but even with the higher cap I can't see paying a guy $14 million for a year." "Um, actually Ralph, the guy we're looking at is a guard." "A guard? A guard! You're paying $14 million for one year of having a guard? And he's not even a Pro Bowler?" "Well, you see Mr. Wilson, at least this gets him away from Arizona. That way we can still laugh at them." "It's us laughing at them, hah?" "Um, that's kind of the hope." "Well, I guess I must not be smart enough to figure out how this plan is going to work."

First of all, welcome to the boards. I agree with the thrust of your post, which is that the Bills should be strongly considering a QB with their #1 pick, even if it means trading up. That said, it would have helped had your punctuation and spelling been a bit better. Further, the guy you quoted wasn't giving you a hard time, he was teasing the guy who did give you a hard time. But I don't want this to degenerate into a thread about the relative importance of grammar and spelling. A lot of what was said here--trading Clements, trading Losman for a 2nd round pick--is stuff the Bills should at least be seriously considering.

I agree, Dean. In fact, I think that we should bring Rob Johnson back, to see what he could do behind a decent offensive line. The line he had to play behind was an absolute joke. How can we know that he was a bust if the guys around him weren't any good?

This is one of the best posts I've seen. I'd like to build on the logic you're using. In evaluating Losman, the Bills shouldn't look at where he was drafted (the sunk cost) but at where he ought to have been drafted. Granted, TD thought Losman deserved to be drafted in the first round, but then again TD's most successful QB pick was the Kordell Stewart bust. Maybe Levy has other ideas about where Losman should have been drafted, just based on his college performance. Say Levy thought of Losman as a 3rd round pick. Now you look at Losman's time as a pro to see if that third round pick estimate was too high or too low. After two injury-plagued seasons, and overall poor play when he was on the field, it's doubtful Levy would see Losman's time as a pro as a reason to significantly upgrade his estimate. He might not significantly downgrade it either, as many QBs who went on to have good careers struggled initially. So you're left with a 3rd round pick--or whatever round Levy decided Losman should have been drafted in in the first place. Levy needs to decide if he's really willing to actually walk away from a potential franchise QB just because there's an outside chance Losman might turn into something.

I remember Marv once saying that offense puts fans in the seats, defense wins playoff games, and special teams wins Super Bowls. So Marv, the Bills had by far the best overall special teams unit in the league last year. Where's our Super Bowl ring?

This increases the chances of the Bills getting their hands on a QB like Cutler or Leinart, so I view this as good news.

If I were the GM, I'd like to address QB in the first round, and OL with the next three picks. I admit this would leave the team with holes elsewhere, especially on defense. But I'm tired of having a joke OL.

I'd be perfectly happy getting the QB question answered for good with a player of Leinart's caliber. The last time the Bills won a playoff game, Jim Kelly was taking the snaps. Doesn't that say something about the importance of the QB position? The Bills have had some good defenses since Kelly hung up his cleats, especially in the late '90s. But there are no playoff wins to show for those defenses. Once you've got the right QB on the roster, it becomes a lot easier to focus on all the other positions. If the Bills have a chance at Leinart--and if Leinart will put the QB question for rest once and for all--why not take him?

To summarize: Gained: Triplett Lost: Adams Change: depends on what mood Adams is in, so let's call this even. Gained: Royal Lost: Campbell Change: hard to say Gained: Andre Davis Lost: Eric Moulds (maybe) Change: for the worse, assuming Moulds goes. Lost: Lawyer Milloy Lost: Trey Teague Lost: Ron Edwards Lost: Justin Banaan Change: for the worse. It's been pointed out the Bills will get Takeo Spikes back. True, but will he be 100%? And you're always going to have an injury somewhere. Last year it was Takeo. This year it will be . . . somewhere or another. Thus far, it looks like the team has taken a step backwards. We'll see if the Bills can make up for this through progress from young players (such as Preston) and through the draft.

There's no way Brooks is better than Holcomb.

If Losman doesn't pan out as the starter, he might not stick around as the backup. Rob Johnson is a good example of one possible future for Losman. That'd leave the Bills with Holcomb as the starter short-term, Schaub as backup (assuming he doesn't prove to be starter material), with Holcomb's successor to be acquired at some point. But even supposing Losman proves himself worthy of being the starter, Holcomb as backup won't last forever.

If I was Marv, I'd be taking a very close look at the tapes of Schaub. A guy like that . . . chances are you're at least getting a good backup QB. It helps to be strong at backup QB, as the Bills learned in the comeback win over the Oilers. But if Schaub can be an upgrade at starter--which may well be the case--you're improving your team for a very reasonable price.

Maybe the Bills should make a move for Schaub. Levy's hinted he'd be open to trading for a backup QB that had the potential to become a starter, and Schaub seems to fit the bill.

I wonder whether TO might give input on whether Losman or Holcomb should be the QB.

I haven't seen any of the numbers, just that the terms of the contract weren't disclosed. If you have seen numbers, please share! The reason I thought Jerman received a signing bonus is that it would make sense for his agent to hold out for some kind of signing bonus. That way, you'd weed out teams that felt they'd most likely cut him during training camp.

He's playing for a little over $7 million in new money for 2006, because that's the value of the check Ralph would have to sign. Well, you say, how come the Bills only get about $5 million in cap relief from cutting Moulds? It's like this: Keep Moulds: cap hit for 2006 = $7 million in base salary + $3 million in amortized signing bonus. Cap hit for 2007 = $2 million in amortized signing bonus Get rid of Moulds: cap hit for 2006 = $5 million in amortized signing bonus So keeping Moulds creates $7 million of cap hit, $5 million of which we get hit with this year, and $2 million of which we get hit with next year.

What really disturbs me about this signing is that it happened so early in the free agency period. I don't think Jerman would have signed a contract this early into the free agency period unless he was given some kind of signing bonus. That would be a real waste of money for a guy you'd hope won't make the final roster.

It's probably time for the Bills and Moulds to part ways. But Moulds has been acting increasingly selfish lately, so the Bills don't need to go out of their way to make his life easier. If that means holding onto Moulds for a while, so as to maximize whatever on earth we can get for him in a trade, so be it. And if at the end of the day Moulds makes a few million less so that the Bills can get a 7th round pick out of him, I'd be perfectly fine with that.

Marv, when we the fans said we wanted the OL addressed in the offseason, this Jerman signing isn't exactly what we had in mind. My fear is that this signing means Marv may not be drafting very many OTs this year.

What's a perfectly logical statement like that doing in a thread like this?

At least you're not condescending or anything.

Few would accuse me of viewing Losman through rose-colored glasses. But these stats don't make a meaningful case against him. It ranks QBs strictly on the basis of how many yards they accumulated over the 2005 season. Since the playing time was split 50/50 between Holcomb and Losman, neither Bills QB had a realistic chance of making this list.