Orton's Arm

What about the fans who bought all eight tickets? You're asking them for $25x8 = $200. For people who go in pairs, it's an extra $400, and whole families would have to pay even more. Not exactly chump change.

It's difficult to conclude otherwise when your team finished at 5-11, with zero draft picks starting on the offensive line, and only one draft pick proving anything on the defensive line. Going into the 2006 season, there will be a three man competition at QB, no proven go-to WR, question marks at TE, and a RB who may or may not be above-average for a starter. After five years, TD should have delivered more. You talk about how it's normal for your best players to walk in free agency. But in Buffalo, this has become more normal than for most teams. One year, Jonas Jennings led the list of available free agent left tackles. Another year, it was Antoine Winfield being by far the best available CB. Instead of franchising and trading those guys as he did Peerless, TD let those guys simply walk out the door. If letting your best players hit free agency is so common, why is the free agent market usually so thin? Why were so many of the best free agents from Buffalo? I've listed the results of TD's first round picks in my sig. Look at his second round choices: 2001a: Aaron Schobel. Result: solid starter. 2001b: Travis Henry. Result: didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Antowain Smith to have been worth a 2nd round pick. 2002: Josh Reed. Result: Reed was the #4 receiver in 2005. 2003: Chris Kelsay. Result: decent backup player. 2004: Traded for Losman. Result: a three man QB competition. 2005: Roscoe Parrish. Result: Yet another slot receiver on a team with no OL or DL. Other than the Schobel pick, there are no unqualified success stories in either of the first two rounds. That's pathetic.

You think I'm negative? If you get to tell people they're too negative, OJ gets to tell them they're too unkind to former spouses, and Jeffrey Dahmer gets to throw around accusations involving cruelty in food preparation.

Welcome aboard. I for one appreciate the entertaining style of your posts. Try not to pay too much attention to all the negative stuff you're hearing.

That was a painful list to read. I haven't kept track of how Smiley or Grove have adapted to the NFL, but it sure would be nice to have a stronger interior OL. As for the Aaron Rogers/Losman debate, Rogers has apparently beaten out Nall, who in turn looks like he may beat out JP.

Sep 10 @New England - L Sep 17 @Miami - L Sep 24 N.Y. Jets - W Oct 1 Minnesota - L Oct 8 @Chicago - L Oct 15 @Detroit - W Oct 22 New England - L Nov 5 Green Bay - W Nov 12 @Indianapolis - L Nov 19 @Houston - W Nov 26 Jacksonville - L Dec 3 San Diego - L Dec 10 @N.Y. Jets - W Dec 17 Miami - L Dec 24 Tennessee - W Dec 31 @Baltimore - L Prediction: 6-10.

I think it will be Nall. Nall is among the first players selected with input from Fairchild. As neither Losman nor Holcomb are Fairchildren, their chances are slimmer.

The two linemen who deserve to be in the top eight are Ferguson and Mario Williams. I don't think either will fall to Buffalo, though either would be a very good choice if they did. The lines can be addressed in rounds 2 - 4. During his five years in Buffalo, TD used just two picks in rounds 2 - 4 on offensive linemen: Jennings and Preston. Three WRs were taken in those rounds under TD during the same time frame, despite the presence of Moulds, the first round pick used on Evans, and the fact that there are 2.5 times as many offensive linemen on the field as there are receivers. The point I'm getting at here is that we as Bills fans aren't used to a GM who builds an offensive line the way he's supposed to. If Marv takes a different course than TD by using more of those round 2 - 4 picks on OL, the Bills will be better able to take advantage of a guy like Davis. With an elite TE, the defense really has to double cover him, so you're looking at one of your guys being worth two of theirs. Not bad at all.

I agree it's doubtful Hawk will be there at #8, but if he is the Bills should probably take him. I hear what you're saying about filling team holes. But there are two parts to having a good team: lack of holes, and a few elite difference makers that can change the course of the game. London Fletcher isn't getting any younger, Takeo may or may not fully recover from his injury, and Angelo Crowell, while respectable, isn't an elite difference maker. Should need play a role? Up to a point. If there was another player with Hawk's potential for greatness sitting there at #8, and if that other player was at a position of greater need or greater potential impact, you draft the other guy. But assuming Hawk will be a significantly better LB than the other guy would be at his position, I think you go with Hawk.

The post you're responding to was tongue in cheek.

Look at all the receivers TD took early in the draft: Josh Reed, Sam Aiken, Lee Evans, and Roscoe Parrish. Maybe someone from that group besides Lee Evans could step up and be the #2 guy. But even if no one can, I'm still not in favor of using a first-day pick on a WR. The lines are a bigger need, and anyway this draft isn't strong at WR. I'd rather have an above-average offensive line and a below-average receiving corps, than the reverse.

As has been pointed out, the 8th overall pick typically has a lot of trade value. You don't give it up for just a second this year and a first next year. If your goal is to trade out of the #8 spot, you could get a mid-first round pick and second round pick this year, or you could get a second and third round pick this year, and a first next year. Or something like that. No sense in leaving money on the table. If three QBs get taken in the top seven, then that means just four non-QBs were taken. Look at the non-QBs: Reggie Bush, AJ Hawk, Mario Williams, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Vernon Davis. There are five guys on that list, so at least one of those guys has to fall to us if the QBs all go in the top 7. What if a QB falls to Buffalo? Depending on who it is, we could either take him or trade the pick to a team desperate for a QB. If we go the latter route, we should charge them a good, high price, just as Dallas did to us when we traded for the Losman pick.

You make a good point about Holcomb having produced. That said, I think Nall is going to be the starter. He's the only QB of the three selected with input from the new coaching staff. Fairchild's offense requires a certain type of QB, and maybe Nall is a better fit for this than either Holcomb or Losman.

I knew my sig would stir up some controversy. Back in 2001, Travis Henry didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Antowain Smith to have been worth a 2nd round pick. In 2003, Willis McGahee didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Henry to have been worth a 1st round pick. The offensive line suffered because of this excessive attention to the RB spot. A decent back behind a great line will do better than a great back behind a lousy line.

You make an eloquent case for Justice, but the negatives you've pointed out will probably outweigh the positives in Marv's eyes. I remember Marv talking about how as a head coach he had a disagreement with someone in the front office about whether to draft a great athlete with character concerns. Marv got his way, and the great athlete with character concerns didn't get drafted. The character concern guy wound up in jail, and the Bills got Shane Conlan instead. Do you think this experience reinforced the importance Marv places on character? I do. Everything you said about the Bills becoming a downfield passing team that absolutely has to have a great o-line is dead-on accurate. But I think Marv is going to try to find a way to build an offensive line with good character guys only.

There's a way for the Bills to trade Losman while re-signing Nate. In the first year of the contract, he gets a signing bonus of, say, $5 million. This bonus would be spread out over the maximum allowable timeframe. His base would be minimum wage. These features would make the deal affordable under the salary cap. Why would Nate sign a multi-year deal with only a $5 million bonus? The Bills would add in a very large roster bonus for the second year of the deal, forcing them to renegotiate at that time. During renegotiations, the Bills would turn the roster bonus into a signing bonus. It's a little complicated, but basically what the Bills would be trying to do would be to minimize the Clements cap hit for 2006, because that's when they'd be hit by the Losman dead cap space. This would make the Clements cap hit a little bigger in future years, but with Losman off the books it would even out.

I don't know where this is coming from. The original poster clearly said that he hated Losman, and that the issue of starting QB should be decided strictly by who did the best at the telethon. This was unreasonable. Losman's supporters responded by pointing out that, while leadership, maturity, and poise are important, other factors also play a role in successful QB performance. Not once did they act as though the original poster had said more than he really had. They were reasonable. /sarcasm Or at least, they were as reasonable as usual, which isn't saying much.

Very well put. I'll add to that by saying that at most positions, you typically get very little out of rookie players. Any offensive player other than running back usually won't make a big contribution his rookie year. Usually the quickest impact defensive players are felt to be defensive linemen. But even those guys, more often than not, need time to adapt to the NFL. Aaron Shobel is a good example of this.

It's just a metaphor. The guy's trying to say he wants to be near regular people, not surrounded by those who will tell him what he wants to hear all day long. I respect that.

I was going to post until I read this. Everything I was going to say you've already said.

I feel that most of the Bills' first day picks should be spent on linemen, especially offensive linemen. That said, I wouldn't mind a non-lineman at #8.

Maybe your words are more prophetic than you'd realized.

I didn't realize she was that prone to envy!

Both parties are responsible for creating a situation where kids will be growing up without a dad.

Not sure where you got the impression I think Holcomb's a football god. I've written he's better than about 1/3 of the starters in the league: guys like Boller, Fielder, etc. As for why he didn't garner more interest, maybe he's not suited to some teams' style of offense, while others might be looking for younger players, while the rest are set (or think they are) at the QB position. Besides all this, his QB rating here in Buffalo is higher than the one he produced in Cleveland, showing that his play has probably improved. I'm open to the possibility Craig Nall will prove himself a better QB than Holcomb. The Bills have a choice: do they go with the savvy vet in Holcomb, or the young guy with upside in Nall? Edit: I left out their third option, which is to find a QB in the draft.