Orton's Arm

We didn't face many good offenses last year. The point about how we allowed a game-deciding nine minute drive to Pittsburgh and late-game comebacks by Jacksonville and the Jets has already been made. Our defense had some success against Cincy, but that was when Palmer was out with an injury; just as the INT against Pittsburgh came with Maddox at QB. I feel that last year's defensive successes were generally a result of taking advantage of other teams' weaknesses rather than shutting down their strengths.

Good point. I took out our two games against NE, and redid the numbers. Against their other 14 opponents, they scored on 48% of their drives, averaging 2.50 points per drive.

I realize our defense isn't the same as last year's, due to the absence of Pat Williams, the injury to Takeo Spikes, and other factors. But even having said that, I believe last year's defense was very much overrated. Jerry Gray is a one-trick pony: all he ever seems to do is blitz. Against offenses that can't pick up the blitz this is a great strategy. He was able to pile up a lot of pretty stats. But constant blitzing is ill-suited to a team like NE that is good at blitz pickup and getting rid of the ball quickly. Ted Cottrell would have held his own against the NE offense; Jerry Gray has not.

Methodology (read if you want to know the details about my analysis) - I ignored drives when NE was attempting to run out the clock, or where there wasn't enough time for anything to really happen. - I ignored points that the NE defense scored against anyone else's offense. - I looked for drives in which a Buffalo turnover led to a NE 3-and-out followed by a field goal. Clearly that field goal would have been the fault of our offense, not our defense. There were no such instances. There was a case when the NE offense used a Bills' turnover to drive 27 yards for a TD. I treated this as a normal drive, because our defense should have stopped this TD, and because this is how I treated the other teams in the analysis. - I looked at what the NE offense did on a per-drive basis. There were two reasons for this: 1) if your own offense is good at chewing up the clock, the other team's offense will have fewer possessions. All else being equal, your defense will therefore allow fewer yards and fewer points. 2) A defense that allows a 10 minute TD drive has done more damage than a defense that allows a quick strike for a TD. Yet the first defense will allow fewer points and yards throughout the game, because the other team's success in chewing up the clock will lead to fewer possessions for both teams. What really matters is the average number of points your own offense must score on each drive in order to win. The higher the number, the more pressure your defense is putting on the offense. The worst-case scenario would clearly be a defense that allowed a TD every drive, because then your offense would have to be perfect to win. NE's games in 2004 were as follows: Indy Ariz Buf Miami Seattle Jets Pitt St. Louis Buf KC Balt Cle Cinn Miami Jets San Fran There are more bad defensive teams on this list (Indy, Ariz, Seattle, St. Louis, etc.) than good ones. The Patriots' best offensive performance came against St. Louis. In that game, they scored on 80% of their possessions, averaging 4.00 points per possession. The worst game for the Patriots was against Baltimore; when they scored on 33% of their possessions, and gained an average of just 1.33 points per possession. For the year, an average of 15% of the Patriots' drives ended because of a turnover (18% if you count turnovers on downs). Against the Bills, 11% of the Patriots' drives ended because of turnovers. There were only four games in which the Patriots' offense had more success (either in points per drive or percentage of drives where points were scored) than its average success against the Bills. These games were against the following teams: - Indy - Seattle - St. Louis - Cinn Even Cleveland's defense did a better job against the Patriots than our defense did. The Browns allowed the Patriots to score on 40% of their drives, and average 2.55 points per possession. The Arizona Cardinals allowed the Patriots to score on 50% of their drives, and to gain an average of 2.3 points per possession.

I've felt for some time that last year's defense got its gaudy numbers from obliterating inferior offenses instead of being competitive against good offenses. The usual counterargument is that every defense looks better against a bad offense than it does against a good offense. To settle the issue, I did a comparison on how well the Patriots' offense did against our defense as opposed to how it did against the other defenses it faced. In the first 2004 game against the Patriots, our defense allowed them to score on 44% of their drives. The Patriots scored an average of 2.67 points per drive. In the second 2004 game against the Patriots, our defense allowed the Patriots to score on 60% of their drives. The Patriots scored 2.60 points per drive. (They had more FGs the 2nd time around). Averaging the two games, the Bills' defense allowed the Patriots to score on 53% of their drives, and score 2.63 points per drive. The average Patriots' opponent allowed the Patriots' offense to score on 48% of their drives for 2.52 points per drive. So the Bills' defense did slightly worse than the average defense the Patriots faced. Considering all the talent the Bills had on defense last year, this kind of performace says something very negative about the defensive scheme.

A lot of people are convinced that Holcomb has no upside, that he's a poor man's Bledsoe. There's a strong posssibility these people are wrong. Look at the facts: - Holcomb is a Montana/Brady-style QB, in that he specializes in high accuracy short-to-intermediate throws. I'm not saying he's as good as either of those two, because he clearly has yet to earn that kind of praise. But, like them, he can kill a defense with a thousand small cuts. He gets rid of the ball quickly, spreads it around, and makes accurate throws. - QBs who substitute accuracy for arm strength are often underrated. Montana lasted until the 3rd round of the draft, Brady until the 6th round. When people think of upside, they often think of physical traits like speed or arm strength. Brady has neither. Fortunately for him, a QB's upside isn't located in his arm or legs, it's in his mind and heart. - People cite Holcomb's 4-9 record as a starter, and that's a perfectly valid argument against him if you believe the other 52 men on the roster are only there just to cheer the QB on. - Consider Holcomb's effort against the Steelers in the playoffs. With Holcomb under center, Cleveland's offense lit up Pittsburgh's defense for over 400 passing yards and 3 passing TDs. Holcomb had another game where he passed for nearly 400 yards. How many 400 yard games has Bledsoe had in his last 13 starts? For that matter, how many has he had in his years with Buffalo? - Sometimes a QB becomes a scapegoat for a bad situation, and finds success elsewhere. Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, and Trent Dilfer all languished in Tampa before proving themselves with other teams. Holcomb may do this too. These next few weeks are an opportunity for Holcomb to prove himself worthy of being the Bills' QB of the future. Let's see how well he does.