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Everything posted by smapdi
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I don't understand why everyone is so frightened by the Patriots and its a given that they will sweep us/win the division. First off, their offensive line is in trouble. Matt Light was a major piece to their success and he is done. They have to put in Solder who has very little experience to replace one their top linemen. Brian Waters looks like he is in trouble as well; not sure whether he will be able to go. The Bills have completely reset their defense. We've brought in one of the top DE's in the NFL in Mario Williams. We stole the Patriots top pass rusher in Mark Anderson. Kyle Williams will be at 100% for the first time since 2010; don't sleep on that fact. Marcell Dareus looks he is ready to blow up entering his 2nd year after a very good rookie season in which he led the team in sacks. We have a true X-Factor in Shawn Merriman whom could offer up some big plays if healthy. With a line of that caliber, offenses are going to have some very tough decisions on whom to double team and what plays they will be able to run, I can see Anderson and Williams both having double digit sacks. We were also able to beat NE last season with a lesser team then we have now; there is no arguing that this team hasn't improved drastically. I think this team can split with NE again this season. If they want to have a shot at taking away the division crown from NE, they will have to at least split with them for the tie break.
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Long time reader/First time poster
smapdi replied to Filly from Ruffalo's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Welcome aboard. This is one of the best spots on the net for Bills talk. Don't be afraid to offer up your 2 cents -
Still some good talent available .....
smapdi replied to Don't stop billievein's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
My bad. I figured it was too good to be true, lol. I was working during the 2nd round and never heard his name. Thanks for heads up -
Still some good talent available .....
smapdi replied to Don't stop billievein's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Vinny Curry I really hope he makes it to us. I guess the Bills like him a lot. It would be the cherry on top to get this kid in the 4th. Would love to add a young pass rusher to Anderson/Williams. -
If Coples is there at 10 we take him over Upshaw, And Ingraam.
smapdi replied to D521646's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Too many questions regarding Coples work ethic and drive to take at #10. One of the main negatives mentioned in nearly every single scouting report on the kid is that "he takes plays off". That isn't just one or two reports; nearly everyone single one I've read has mentioned that. He isn't a "high motor" player and lacks motivation. How do you think a guy like that will react to being paid 10+ million dollars off the bat?? I personally do not want to find out. We need someone at 10 who can come in here from day 1 and start. Much like Marcell Dareus did last season. They also cannot afford to miss on this pick. It is much too important to this team to draft a bust. Coples just has way too many question marks to take at 10. Maybe if we were picking 20-25 I would consider him but not in the top 10. Give me a highly productive, highly successful player like Courtney Upshaw from a powerhouse program with 2 national championship rings every time over a guy like Coples. Nick Saban churns out NFL ready defensive players every single year. He demands the best out of his players and hard work. You know Upshaw isn't going to quit on plays coming from a program like Alabama. Add in that program's success while Upshaw was a major piece of that said success and his MVP award in the National Championship game & you get a very safe prospect. -
Chris Brown SPECULATES Bills in play for V Jackson
smapdi replied to FluffHead's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Don't forget about Marques Colston. He would look great opposite Stevie in this offense: big, physical WR with sure hands who has been highly productive. I think NO will have a tough time re-signing him with Brees due for a new deal any time now. They also have their all-pro guard Nicks up for a new deal I also think Colston would be a little bit cheaper then VJax without the baggage. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing in SD during Jackson's time there. Colston is a former 7th round pick, similar to Stevie, who has busted his ass to become a successful starting NFL WR. He has a great set of hands on him and can go up & over any CB in the league for a ball. Exactly what Nix was talking about when he said they need a WR that "is open even when they're covered" -
Buffalo Bills Courting LB Courtney Upshaw and WR Marquis Maze
smapdi replied to Sniper's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
So true. A lot of ignorance being shown in those posts. Upshaw made plays on the best defense in all the land in the best conference in all the land. He finished 2nd in "big plays" (Sacks & Tackles for Loss) per attempt. He had a sack or tackle for loss every 24 snaps. Alabama's defense was so dominant, they only faced 720 snaps this season. That is significantly less then these other prospects. Like 100-200 snaps. You have to take that into account in ranking him. The fact he was still able to post 10 sacks in the SEC with the fewest opportunities is even more impressive. Why he should be penalized for being a major part of the most dominant defense in college football is beyond me. Alabama's defense was just that good and Upshaw was a major part of it. Like the MVP of the National Championship part of it. He is the Haloti Ngata and Brian Orakpo of this draft: A sure thing. I really hope the Bills don't go for the Donte Whitner or Aaron Maybin instead. I personally don't think they will. Nix actually knows what he is doing and has gone BPA in his two drafts in the 1st round (Spiller & Dareus). He loves players from the SEC and did quite well the last time he picked the defensive MVP of the National Championship game from Alabama. -
Leading pass rush candidates with short arms
smapdi replied to Cheddar's Dad's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Everyone who keeps saying the Upshaw cannot get to the passer need to go back and look at his numbers He put up 17 sacks the past 2 seasons in the SEC This year, he played on one of the dominant defenses in the NCAA. Alabama only faced 720 snaps all year because they were such a dominant unit which Upshaw was the leader of. When you break down the numbers and level the playing field (sacks and tackles for loss PER PLAY), Upshaw finishes 2nd of any of the major DE/OLB prospects in this draft. I posted the full list in another thread. I believe he had 1 negative play every 25 snaps. The kid knows how to get into the backfield and wreak havoc. I don't think he should be punished because the defense in which he led was so dominant that they faced the fewest snaps of any of these other guys being talked about. He had at least 100 less snaps compared to these other guys; sometimes 200 less snaps. He simply had less opportunities to get after the QB then these other prospects but was still quite productive in that aspect Courtney Upshaw is just the total package IMO. 4 year guy with 2 national championships under his belt and was the defensive MVP of this years National Championship. He has the imposing size and build of a fearsome NFL OLB. He is the safest pick IMO; a can't miss. At worst, you're going to get a Talley type LB out of him. I think he has the ceiling of a Terrell Suggs type OLB that can go out there and wreak havoc on QBs. He doesn't take plays off and is a vocal leader of that dominant Alabama defense. -
If they were able to land Mario Williams, I would probably play the 43 front the vast majority of the time. I just think he would be way more dominate out of the the RE spot in the 40 front then at OLB in the 30 front. We already play it the majority of snaps any ways. Any time they are in the nickel or dime defense, that is a 4 man front. I would have no problem with them going to a 40 front if that is what it took to land Mario williams . I think the 40 front will be our strongest unit anyways next season. I would much rather have Kyle Willams and Marcell Dareus lined up together inside at the two DT spots then force one of them outside. Dareus can play DE but he was much more productive inside
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I think it shows that having a lethal offense is more important then anything IMO. Both the Giants and Patriots offenses thrive on their big time pass catchers (Cruz, Nicks, Manningham & Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez). The NFL has really made the passing game the most important facet of the game. DB's are extremely limited in what they can do to defend the WR and QB's are shrouded in protection from the Refs. These games just re-enforce the fact that we need to re-sign Stevie Johnson AND add another big time WR. The resigning of 13 should be priority number one IMO. After locking him up, we need to sign one of these top tier FA WRs (Colston, Bowe, Jackson, or VJax). I would prefer Colston or VJax but any of them will do. They will not be cheap but having 2 very good WR's is a necessity in today's NFL if you want to win. As an extension of that theory, I also think that getting after the QB is the most important aspect of the defense. This team needs to bring in a top tier FA pass rusher (Mario Willams or Cliff Avril) that can step in immediately and improve our anemic pass rush. I think we will also need to draft a pass rushing OLB at #10. Currently, I am leaning Courntey Upshaw. He would be a massive upgrade to our LB corp. Those 4 moves would go a very long way into making this team a true contender: 1. Resign Stevie Johnson 2. Sign top tier FA WR (Colston, VJax, Bowe, or Jackson) 3. Sign top tier FA DE (Willams or Avril) 4. Draft a pass rushing OLB at #10 (Upshaw)
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I would love to make a play for Mario Willams. He is scheme diverse and we could continue to run a hybrid defense with him. Just imagine our 43 front with him: Kelsay/Merriman/Draftee - Willams - Dareus - Willams That would be one hell of a front. Both Dareus and Willams will demand double teams inside leaving Mario Willams all by his lonesome. He could an absolute force playing next to those two. The signing of Mario Willams would really elevate this defense. Would also allow us a lot more flexibility in the draft. We could still go after Courtney Upshaw to play OLB. Adding Upshaw and Willams would be a grand slam IMO
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What are you smoking man? Pass some of it over here. 1 solid starter??! - Marcell Dareus; will be an all-pro linemen for years to come. Foundation of defense - Aaron Willams; Big, Physical CB who will be the #1 CB next season. If it wasn't for injuries, would have started this year more. Was called "best CB against run to come out of college in past 5 years" - Kelvin Sheppard; Very good ILB from the SEC who was starting 2nd half of season. Will be a mainstay in the front 7 for the next 5-7 years. - DaNoris Searcy; SS who looked good in action this season. Probably will give Wilson a run for his money at SS next year but will see tons of time in their Nickel and dime sets either way - CJ Spiller; When actually given touches, was the best offensive player on the team. If not abandoned for no reason by Gailey, would have put up even bigger numbers in 2nd half. Will be the cornerstone of the offense for the next decade. He WILL be the starter next season. Will be too good not to be on the field - Alex Carrington; Big, physcial DE that has started plenty of times. Able to hold his own against the run out of the 34 DE spot. All of those players will be starting next season. Most of them will be much better then "solid". Dareus and Spiller are the foundations of this team now. They both Possess the skill that few in the NFL do whether you like it or not.
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Well, with hindsight, of course we should have picked a whole different lot of players every draft. It seems from your posts that you did not follow that draft closely AT ALL. JPP was a wild card. No one argued against his athleticism. But he was looked at as a one year wonder from a school not known for churning out all-pro NFL linemen. If he was such a lock for a top 10 pick, as you claim, why didn't he get selected in the top 10 by actual NFL GM's?? Its extremely easy to look back, nearly 3 years after the fact and say "We should have picked JPP". But at the time of that draft, he was viewed as a risky pick. Hence, why he dropped to the Giants. Anthony Davis was a head case. There were major questions about his work ethic coming out of Rutgers. He also wasn't viewed as a sure fire LT; And surprise surprise! He still isn't playing LT nearly 3 years down the road. It's so easy to look back at a draft like that and rip the Bills (Because you have some type of vendetta against this current regime I think) for picks they didn't make. The draft isn't as cut and dry when it happens as it is now, 3 years down the road. Donte Whitner was the worst pick this team has made in the last 15 years without a doubt. I can't believe anyone would attempt to defend that. Haloti Ngata was the easy pick and they blew it. Rex Ryan called Ngata a "Once in a decade" type player. He is a future hall of famer. Insead, the football mastermind that Marv levy is, decided to pick an undersized safety. Whitner was terrible. He couldn't cover, never made big plays, and was out performed by an undrafted WR converted to safety! I still get sick to my stomach thinking about the Whitner pick. It was such an obvious, no brainer pick yet Levy and Jauron still !@#$ed it up I almost missed the part of your post where you said "Levy and Jauron were unquestionably better" Buahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahah. Are !@#$ing for real man??!? Donte Whitner over Nagata @ 8, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, John McCargo. This list goes on and on. This franchise STILL hasn't recovered from the damage done by those two clowns. Anyone with half a brain knew going into Nix's tenure that this was a full rebuild which would take at least 3 years. Jauron and Levy infected this team with their meekness and loser attitude. Face the facts man, when this team was healthy, in YEAR 2 of Nix's rebuild, they beat the AFC's Superbowl(probably Superbowl Champion) team and was one of the hottest teams in the NFL. It wasn't until injuries decimated this roster that things fell apart.
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Every year I read about the "mythical" trade down move. It rarely ever happens and even rarer will the Bills make that move. It takes two to tango and it can be very difficult to find the right mix of assets and willingness to make a trade. I would rather have a top 10 player then trade out of there myself. If there is somebody there you like at 10, you take him. No sense in risking losing the guy you want for an extra 3rd round pick IMO. The trade down makes sense if there is absolutely no one there that you like but that would be unlikely.
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LOL I don't even know where to start with this post. Deep in talent?! Lynch was already out the door. He was one bone headed move from being suspended the entire year. The writing was clearly on the wall that Lynch was history. He was def a bad pick to begin with; I would have traded up for Patrick Willis who is now the mainstay of the 49ers defense. FJax was still a question mark entering that season. He was not the player that he was the first half of this season; not even close to that level Just look at how bad our offense was under Jauron. That is all the proof I need to justify the need for a dynamic, offensive talent to add to this team. The NFL is about scoring points and the Bills were sorely lacking any type of offensive playmaker. Year after year of offenses in the bottom 5 of the NFL. A lot of revisionist history going on in this post. Anthony Davis was a question mark as well. I can see by your post that you did not follow that draft very closely. Bulaga was categorized as "soft" by many sources and not fit to be a LT. I dont know about you, but I will pass on taking a RT in the top 10. Face the facts: Neither of those players are LT to this day I guess Buddy Nix is just damned if he does and damned if he doesn't with you. Nix broke the flow of stupidity of reaching for needs with our 1st round picks with taking Spiller and Dareus. I don't understand how you can possibly say this. The Bills were never deep in talent at any position on offense during the Jaruon tenure. Just look at where their offense ranked: 2006: 30th in total offense 2007: 30th 2008: 25th 2009: 30th WOW! That looks like an offense just incredibly deep in talent and offensive playmakers to me... /sarcasm You can knock Spiller all you want and say he hasn't proven anything but that is a lie. He was their best offensive player when he actually got touches. There is nothing Spiller could do with less then 3 carries a game starting the season. He would have had more 100 yard games if Gailey didn't abandon him for no apparent reason. He tore the MIA defense apart; the same MIA defense that FJax struggled mightily against.
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If Chandler is offered 6 or 7 million a year, I would be shocked. I would love to see him resigned but I am thinking in the 2-3 million dollar range. And I would still like to see another TE brought in (Fred Davis, Martellus Bennet, Jacob Tamme). Bennett is really intriguing to me with his tremendous size and good speed. He has been stuck behind Witten in Dallas and I think a change of scenery could do him wonders. He also wouldn;t cost very much to bring in IMO
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Im not sold on Reiff or Martin with the 10th pick. I think there are a couple pretty good LTs we cam snag in the 2nd or 3rd. The Datko kid out of Florida St is interesting. Im of the opinion that we need to go defensive front 7 with the our 10th pick. We need an impact pass rusher period. The NFL is a passing league now and if your defense can't disrupt the QB and cause him some pain, its not very useful. I still think Upshaw is a match made in heaven for this team. Big, mean OLB built like a rock that led the National Championship defense in sacks and was the MVP of National Championship game which is defense totally dominated. He also finished 2nd of all the major pass rushing prospects in impact plays (Sacks & Tackles for loss per play). Alabama's defense was so good this year, they only faced 720 snaps. Meaning Upshaw had less opportunities to get sacks. When you level the playing field with the negative plays per snap, Upshaw rises to the top. He is an extremely hard worker and the closest thing to a "Sure thing" in the draft. His floor is very high and he has the ceiling to become a Terrell Suggs type player from the OLB spot. I just don't think Upshaw should be punished in some posters eyes because his defense was so dominant that he had less opportunities to get sacks. He also provides leader ship. Like it or not, OLB is the biggest need on this defense. We need 2 new starting OLB's. I am not counting on Merriman for anything and I think Kelsay should not be an every down OLB. We need a couple dynamic pass rushers to take advantage of the double teams that a healthy Kyle Willams and Marcell Dareus will be eating up play after play.
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Jason Piere Paul was listed as a very risky prospect going into that draft. No question he had the physical skills to succeed. But, if my memory serves me well, there were concerns that he wasn't exactly a "high motor" player. Questions about his consistency; enough to warrant passing on him in the top 10. All of these magical LT's people keep saying we could have drafted don't really exist. Time and time again I hear people harp on this point but they fail to realize that there really wasn't one there worth the 9th pick. Bulaga had major concerns. He was remarked as "soft" by a few scouts pre-draft. Many questioned his ability to man the LT spot in the NFL. He still hasn't broken thru at LT for GB. Only has played LT due to injuries. Anthony Davis also had question marks. Work ethic questions and concerns about whether he could really hold down LT in the NFL. I love how posters always say that they should have taken a LT there but in reality, there wasn't a LT worth the 9th pick. I think Spiller was a great pick for this team. Nix went BPA, which is what you ALWAYS should do with your 1st round pick; especially in top 10. Once you start going for "need" players with your 1st round pick, you end up with Aaron Maybin, JP Losman, Donte Whitner, John McCargo. I would argue that the teams biggest need entering that draft was "playmakers" on offense. That offense was totally devoid of a dynamic offensive treat. Lynch was on his way out the door. FJax was about to be on the wrong side of 30. That offense had nobody even close to Spiller's level of athletic ability: a dynamic offensive playmaker that can hurt the defense all over the place. He can do everything you need a RB to do. Can run between the tackles now. Has really improved his ability and vision to break tackles. You need a player like Spiller in todays NFL that can do everything. You can split him out and create a giant mismatch of him on a LB or SS. He has the speed to eat most CB's alive in this league, let alone a LB. Just look at what he was able to do aganst MIA's tough defense which FJax struggled against. I would argue that Spiller was the best offensive playmaker in the draft and filled the biggest need on the team at that time. IMO, Spiller has only scratched the surface of his abilities. His numbers would have been even more stellar if he wasn't abandoned in a couple games in which he was dominating (TEN & another game). Players like CJ Spiller to come around very often. Kid put up 53 TD's at Clemson in the ACC. Bottom line is that Nix inherited a team in total shambles; almost completely devoid of actual NFL players that were useful. It was clearly at least a 3 year rebuild with the dumpster fire that Jauron and Levy left this team in. Nearly the entire defense had to be rebuilt. I think he has done a pretty good job myself. When everyone was healthy in only year 2 of the rebuild, this team was very dangerous and was able to beat NE for the first time in ages. I think we will make a couple key FA signings for once this offseason and use the draft to really round out this defense. If you step back off the ledge and look at how much more talent we have, I think Nix has done pretty good. With his two 1st round picks, he has acquired cornerstone, multiple pro-bowl players in CJ Spiller and Marcell Dareus.
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I think we could still plug him in at strong side OLB and be good if we went to the 4-3. You could also let him line up as DE on 3rd down in the 4-3; he has the size and athleticism to take on OT's. Just watch some tape on him. He routinely went against OT's and was able to disengage and make a play.
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He is one of the best message board posters I've run across in my nearly 10 years of posting on Bills boards. He has an incredible wealth of knowledge relating to the draft. I believe he did all this work by hand if I'm not mistaken. Another poster got the ball rolling by pointing out that Alabama faced the fewest snaps (720) by a wide margin and he went ahead and crunched the numbers for the rest of the top tier prospects. I give him all the credit for this excellent breakdown. Just thought I would share it with you guys so you could really see how these guys stack up. I don't think Upshaw should be penalized in some poster's eyes because he played on a such a dominant defense that the opportunities were just not there compared to some of these other guys
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I think that is just Upshaw's floor; a Talley type LB. I really do think he can turn into a Suggs like player within 2-3 years. I posted this in another thread: Alabama's defense faced the fewest snaps of any defense among the top pass rushing prospects by a significant amount. There were simply less plays and less pass rushing situations for Upshaw to really get after the QB. Still, he finishes 2nd in all of college football in negative plays per snap (Sacks & tackles for loss). That sounds like the disruptive player we need at LB. Sammy Brown ( 1045 - 13.5 sacks / 30TFL) - 1 sack / 77.4 - 1 TFL / 34.83 snaps - 1 neg play / 24.02 snaps Upshaw (720 snaps 10 sacks / 18TFL ) 1 sack/ 72 snaps - 1 TFL/40 snaps - 1 negative play/ 25.7 snaps Vinny Curry ( 930 - 11 sacks / 22 TFL) 1 sack / 84.54 - 1 TFL / 42.27 - 1 neg play / 28.18 snaps Mercilus (842 snaps 16 sacks / 22.5) 1 sack/ 52.6 snaps - 1 TFL/37.42 snaps - 1 negative play / 29.54 snaps Melvin Ingram (835 snaps - 10 sacks/ 15 TFL) 1 sack / 83.5 snaps - 1 TFL/ 55.67 - I neg play / 33.4 snaps Andre Branch ( 986 - 10.5 sacks / 17 TFL) 1 sack / 93.9 snaps - 1 TFL / 58 snaps - 1 neg play / 35.85 snaps Nick Perry (826 snaps - 9.5 sacks / 13 TFL) 1 sack / 86.94 snaps - 1 TFL / 63.5 - 1 neg play / 36.71 Quinton Coples ( 907 snaps - 7.5 sacks / 15 TFL) 1 sack / 120.93 - 1 TFL / 60.47 - 1 neg play / 40.31 snaps - not my work. Taken from another Bills MB. compliments of admarc. Just thought I would share this with you guys to give you an idea of how these guys stack up. Simply put, Upshaw had way less opportunities to get after the QB due to the high caliber of the defense he was a part of. Alabama only faced 720 snaps. Compare that to UNC's 907 or Illinois' 842. Yet, Upshaw was still able to be a disruptive force finishing 2nd among the elite prospects in this draft in disruptive plays.
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To the people saying that Upshaw isn't the pass rusher we're looking for: Alabama's defense faced the fewest snaps of any defense among the top pass rushing prospects by a significant amount. There were simply less plays and less pass rushing situations for Upshaw to really get after the QB. Still, he finishes 2nd in all of college football in negative plays per snap (Sacks & tackles for loss). That sounds like the disruptive player we need at LB. Sammy Brown ( 1045 - 13.5 sacks / 30TFL) - 1 sack / 77.4 - 1 TFL / 34.83 snaps - 1 neg play / 24.02 snaps Upshaw (720 snaps 10 sacks / 18TFL ) 1 sack/ 72 snaps - 1 TFL/40 snaps - 1 negative play/ 25.7 snaps Vinny Curry ( 930 - 11 sacks / 22 TFL) 1 sack / 84.54 - 1 TFL / 42.27 - 1 neg play / 28.18 snaps Mercilus (842 snaps 16 sacks / 22.5) 1 sack/ 52.6 snaps - 1 TFL/37.42 snaps - 1 negative play / 29.54 snaps Melvin Ingram (835 snaps - 10 sacks/ 15 TFL) 1 sack / 83.5 snaps - 1 TFL/ 55.67 - I neg play / 33.4 snaps Andre Branch ( 986 - 10.5 sacks / 17 TFL) 1 sack / 93.9 snaps - 1 TFL / 58 snaps - 1 neg play / 35.85 snaps Nick Perry (826 snaps - 9.5 sacks / 13 TFL) 1 sack / 86.94 snaps - 1 TFL / 63.5 - 1 neg play / 36.71 Quinton Coples ( 907 snaps - 7.5 sacks / 15 TFL) 1 sack / 120.93 - 1 TFL / 60.47 - 1 neg play / 40.31 snaps - not my work. Taken from another Bills MB. compliments of admarc. Just thought I would share this with you guys to give you an idea of how these guys stack up. I think its a little interesting the Coples is at the bottom of this list. He may have the ideal size but football is about more then ideal size. Too many question marks with that kid to spend a top 10 pick on him
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Problem with that is that we draft 10th, not 9th But, if by some miracle, RG3 is there, you take him. He looks like he can be a game changer at QB. We also wouldn't have to rush him into service with Fitz under contract. Seems like the type of QB that could thrive under Gailey. Has all the tools to do whatever Gailey would want him to do. Truly "dynamic". With that said, there is no way he gets past Miami at 9. I doubt he will make it past CLE and could even see somebody trading up to 2 to draft him.
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I would have no problem with Upshaw in the 1st and Hightower in the 2nd. I will take key players from Alabama's national championship winning defense all day. Those 2 would turn our defensive front 7 into one of the best in the AFC IMO. We need some playmakers at LB to take advantage of the double teams that a healthy Kyle Willams and Marcell Dareus will be eating up routinely .