MRM33064

I saw Metzelaars roaming the sideline at halftime.

Oh no! Schouman is down! NOW who will we pass to .... we're stuck with Evans and TO as targets?

Trent needs to get out there with a little swagger .... Jimbo style lol ... he threw an INT, big deal ...

"Schouman is Trent's favorite target" .... that doesn't even sound right. Trent needs a Jauronectomy. STAT.

I think Parker is just an unfortunate consequence of a bizarre rookie compensation system. The opportunity for him to be so influential (at the player or team level) shouldn't exist. Instead, the draft is an entire world onto itself, and how a prospect handles his PR, advertising, etc. - how his "team" tries to spin his number up a few notches on someone's board - can easily become more financially important to him than anything he'll ever do in the NFL. Unfortunately, the NFLPA's position has historically been that it's good for veterans when teams pay outrageous prices for players who haven't played a down in the league ... and the owners, by and large, continue to pay it. As long as the tail keeps wagging the dog, the agents end up being an indirect but significant factor in a team's personnel decisions ... and arguably a team's on-field success. The owners/veterans just need to get together and retool this, because both sides should be controlling the rookies/agents as opposed to vice-versa.

No question, Berman will always be a part of Bills lore - all kinds of good reasons for that. At the risk of getting flamed, I think it'll be a great day when the current performance and identity of the team results in the glory teams of the 90s becoming an incredible, but distant, memory. Sometimes instead of being a great part of our history, the current relevance of Berman, Kelly, Thurman, the no huddle, etc. can make us look a bit like Al Bundy talking about his 4 TDs in one game in high school. Hopefully the team will do something soon to give the next generation's Berman a few good reasons to jump onto the Bills bandwagon.

FWIW, McKelvin's first score on the Wonderlic was reported to be 13/50, followed by a 34/50 on a retest. Wonderlic claims a score of at least 10 points suggests a person is literate.

I was wondering the same thing myself, actually hoping for a few more crossing routes to get the ball to TO. I think the no-huddle, coupled with the crowd noise, might make adding a lot of motion to the offense a little more difficult.

Gruden seems like a natural. I thought praising McGee for being all over Moss was a little much, considering Moss had 12 catches and 144 yards lol, but overall he was good.

There is something very inexact, very subjective, yet completely true about that. At times, Jauron reminds me of what happens to the bogey golfer who is even par after 13 holes, only to finish with 7s and 8s. A team that's 5-1 ... to finish 2-8. A team that's on the cusp of beating a superior Dallas team on MNF, or beating a bitter rival in the opening game of the season on MNF, etc. 7-9, followed by 7-9, followed by 7-9. Not too good, not too horrible. Jauron just seems like one of those guys who is most comfortable, most in his element, when things play out as they are expected to, according to plan, i.e., when the world is operating at the mean or regressing toward the mean. Of course, none of that explains Leodis's fumble, but had he not fumbled, it just seems as though something else would've happened to ensure that things played out as the world expected them to.

12s pretty widely available now, it might be capping off. Agree w/you on Minnesota btw ... that result might set up for a hold-your-nose play on Detroit as the home dog next week. EDIT (5pm): 13s now out there. I suppose it could go even higher, but I'd go ahead and grab that now if I were inclined to back our beloved Bills, though I'm not. :-)

Boston Globe: "Patriots 38, Bills 8" ..... "On paper, this game is a mismatch" Providence Journal: "Patriots 37, Bills 7" ... "In case you haven't heard, New England has won 11 straight games against Buffalo, and with a win Monday night will set a new franchise record for consecutive wins over an opponent." At this point, I'm not sure if this would ramp up the motivation or the fear.

If you enjoy this sort of thing, you would like www.advancednflstats.com. I have no interest in the site, I just find it fun to read now and then. In this case, if you haven't already done so, you could get a (very) rough approximation of the expected probability distribution by assigning point spread estimates to each matchup, converting those point spreads to approximate straight-up win probabilities (you can find tables on the web, but with enough data you can construct your own fairly easily), and then calculating it out. I did this last year to rebut the WGR whiner callers, who were downplaying our chances to make the playoffs during our great start. The probablility of us missing the playoffs at that time was, in fact, absurdly small. Unfortunately, we know what actually happened ....

Amazing this Miami team won 11 games last year. When Pennington isn't at the very top of his game, the team looks very average, at best. The score could've been much worse today, the young MIA secondary was toasted on several plays and Ryan simply missed the throws, and Elam blew 2 FGs and an XP.

Agree on Sanchez .... Dolphins not looking very good either. Score could be much worse, Ryan not particularly sharp - has missed at least 2 very open receivers for TDs.

Nationally televised night games (pro and college, for that matter, particularly the games involving teams who are the current darling of the ESPN crowd), are really among some of the best data subsets to study vis-a-vis anticipating/predicting potential line movement. A substantial amount of public money comes in on these games, it frequently comes in late, tends to come in heavy on the favorite, and is often corrleated to the outcome of similarly lined day games. (Some will say so-called "sharp" money then comes in very late, i.e. very close to post.) None of those things are givens, but historically relevant. Personally, I don't see any fundamental reasons why the Bills should be a good play. However, I was simply suggesting that there is a good chance (not a guarantee, but a chance) that someone who was leaning toward betting the Bills could get a better price/number by waiting a bit.

It's not exactly surprising to see the MNF favorite get bid up, so if you're feeling a bit mentally unstable and see yourself betting the Bills .... do yourself a favor and wait a bit. There's a better than average chance you'll get a better number/moneyline price by waiting, especially if Joe "I use my TIVO and claim I'm watching game film" Public loses all his money on the Saints and Ravens and needs MNF to win back his milk money.

Slightly more than half a hypothetical, unfortunately. :-(

.... and True/False ... If you were a prominent, proven, well-respected coach, with reasonable chance to name your next team, the Buffalo Bills would be right at the top of your list. On the positive side, the team has great fans. The best. They'll squawk a little once and awhile, but no matter what happens, they'll buy the season tix and fill the stadium. On the other side, the team is off a 2-8 run, devoid of top talent (or a crop of great young prospects), hasn't made the playoffs in a decade, has a 90+ year old owner who likes to be controlling and doesn't exactly have a pattern of paying for top assistant coaches, scouts, etc. Sadly, we may be the single most unattractive destination for any top coach, even IF Uncle Ralph were to concede and pay market rate for the coach himself.

Emmitt Smith. Nobody offers more insightful, eloquent commentary. "The Packers don't has a running game." "This team have not played confident football in three weeks." "He gets the ball over to their third read than most quarterback can." "I'm concerned about a guy who fall down before get hits."

Come on guys, where's the love for Beasley Reece.

Maybe one of our resident statisticians can tell us how likely (or unlikely) it would be to draw names out of a hat and generate fewer hits. Of course, there's some interdependencies at play - i.e. Mularkey, Jauron and their respective discount staffs influence production (or lack thereof), but to think the majority of these gems would've been stars had they played for, say - the Hoodie - seems like a pretty big stretch. ---------------------------------- 2008: (1) Leodis McKelvin, (2) James Hardy, (3) Chris Ellis, (4) Reggie Corner, (4) Derek Fine, (5) Alvin Bowen, (6) Xavier Omon, (7) Demetrius Bell, (7) Steve Johnson, (7) Kennard Cox 2007: (1) Marshawn Lynch, (2) Paul Posluszny, (3) Trent Edwards, (4) Dwayne Wright, (6) John Wendling, (7) Derek Schouman, (7) C.J. Ah You 2006: (1) Donte Whitner, (1) John McCargo, (3) Ashton Youboty, (4) Ko Simpson, (5) Kyle Williams, (5) Brad Butler, (6) Keith Ellison, (7) Terrance Pennington, (7) Aaron Merz 2005: (2) Roscoe Parrish, (3) Kevin Everett, (4) Duke Preston, (5) Eric King, (6) Justin Geisinger, (7) Lionel Gates 2004: (1) Lee Evans, (1) J.P. Losman, (3) Tim Anderson, (4) Tim Euhus, (7) Dylan McFarland, (7) Jonathan Smith 2003: (1) Willis McGahee, (2) Chris Kelsay, (3) Angelo Crowell, (4) Terrence McGee, (4) Sam Aiken, (5) Ben Sobieski, (6) Lauvale Sape, (7) Mario Haggan 2002: (1) Mike Williams, (2) Josh Reed, (2) Ryan Denney, (3) Coy Wire, (5) Justin Bannan, (6) Kevin Thomas, (7) Mike Pucillo, (7) Rodney Wright, (7) Jarrett Ferguson, (7) Dominique Stevenson 2001: (1) Nate Clements, (2) Aaron Schobel, (2) Travis Henry, (3) Ron Edwards, (3) Jonas Jennings, (4) Brandon Spoon, (5) Marques Sullivan, (6) Tony Driver, (6) Dan O'Leary, (6) Jimmy Williams, (7) Reggie Germany, (7) Tyrone Robertson.

No huddle with Trent K-Gun or water pistol? Pete Metzelaars cries Robert Royal, waiter Took my order, dropped my beer Some things never change Rob, J.P. and Trent Pretty boy Cali QBs Our scouts need a map Dick's win percentage Like Roscoe's Wonderlic score Barely registers Tom Modrak, John Guy No probowlers, still in charge Peter Principle

This is too much fun ........ Young offensive line Patriots defense, waiting Trent's underwear, moist T.O. is a Bill Brandon leads free agent charge One lame popcorn fart Trent will throw it deep Evans and T.O. run wild Pigs fly in Gillette (or ... Hell freezes over) Langston, eloquent Great for a quote, smart and hip Expensive turnstile U.B. volunteer Bring Turner some Gatorade Bills coaching job next Watch those linebackers Nevermind, Tedy is gone Stroke of luck for Bills (mildly tasteless, but I think he's OK ....) Miracle is close Seconds left, can still win it! Dick waits, clock runs out

Commanche Indian .... [Fast forward] By the way, who are you again? I'm Frieda's boss. Who's Frieda? My secretary. We can only hope that this thread has inspired a few youngsters to seek out and enjoy the timeless masterpiece that is Fletch.