Dr. Who

Lots of folks like Allen. No way he lasts till the fifth round, and he could easily go day 2. I like Kendall Milton. He runs upright, which isn't the best, but he's a big, tough back. He'd be an excellent day 3 RB.

I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.

Do you think he falls outside of round one because of medical concerns?

Yes, I understand the risk. Aiyuk will cost a lot in terms of how much you have to pay him, and the amount of cap space that will take. The fella wants to get paid. The value of hitting on a top shelf WR on a rookie contract is similar to, but not as great, as hitting on a franchise QB on a rookie contract. You can then take advantage by redistributing the cap space dollars elsewhere. And, as I indicated, I think the top 3 this year are unlikely to bust, though there is indeed that chance. The question is if taking that risk is countered by the potential cap savings. I, personally, would take that risk over having to pay Aiyuk, though you are correct that you are paying for a known quantity as an NFL receiver. My favorite gamble would be to trade up from #60 using a 2025 second, and whatever other draft capital necessary, to end up with McConkey and either Mitchell or Thomas. That would also entail risk, and is perhaps unlikely. Regardless, that's my preference. If they end up going the Aiyuk route, it will seem to me trading out Diggs for Aiyuk and no cap savings, but he is a solid WR and it could work out well.

I picture you as a bear that comes out of hibernation to mock draft, and then grabs a beer and goes back to sleep after the draft is over. I like this draft, btw, but I'd rather trade up using a 2025 second to go grab McConkey to go along with Mitchell.

The downside to that is you are going to pay out a big contract. If you hit on a rookie, you can use that money elsewhere in constructing a roster. I think the top 3 have pretty high floors, along with high ceilings. I'd rather risk it, if it is the choice you offer. The other option of staying at #28 or a smaller trade up or back has its own calculations.

Traded our 2025 second to move up in the second. Detroit moved up one and gifted #98. That was nice of them. 29. Adonai MitchellWR Texas 40. Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia 98. T'Vondre SweatDT Texas 128. Tykee SmithS Georgia 133. Jaylen WrightRB Tennessee 144. Zak ZinterOG Michigan 160. Cedric JohnsonEDGE Ole Miss 200. Brevyn Spann-FordTE Minnesota 204. Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn 248. Frank CrumOT Wyoming

If I can get Mitchell and McConkey, I'm going to do it. If they trade up for one of the top 3, then that will be it for an early WR. I understand that folks have other strategies. That's mine.

Well, that is a real consideration. My main interest at the top of the draft is WR. For me, a second is probably involved in a big trade up or staying at #28 and moving up from #60 to the early second to double dip at receiver. If the right players are there, i would do it. I like the big 3 and Thomas as trade up in the first candidates. Mitchell and McConkey are next on my list.

I really enjoyed this breakdown (partly because I pretty much agree with their analyses.) The last twenty minutes or so when they are talking about their top 6 are absolutely worth a listen. If Beane somehow pulled off grabbing Ladd McConkey and one of Mitchell or Thomas, it would be a home run draft. Folks who don't think McConkey is an X should pay attention to what they say here.

He's the quiet fella everyone is forgetting. Except @NewEra

I'll add to this request: how do you answer the concern that Coleman would likely have to get a lot of snaps as a big slot to be productive? I don't want to add a player that largely needs Kincaid to be off the field for the best chance of success.

I dunno, 30 lbs seems significant to me. I think Worthy is a talent. I'm worried about his size. If you get Worthy, you better find a way to get Legette, too, imo. (There are others, like Walker and Polk, that one could consider.)

Payton Wilson is a big, impressive LB. If you just look at the highlights, you want him on your team. And I do like him, though we don't have the luxury of taking a LB that early. And then the negatives on him are several. He's an older player. He turns 24 on draft day, and has a long injury history. So in that sense, it's a little sketchy as an answer to our hurt linebacker problem. Also, apparently he has trouble shedding blocks, so if he doesn't beat the oline or te to the runner, he might disappear from the play. If I am taking a chance on a defensive player with injury concerns, it's going to be Latu. What about Storm Duck? He's probably a ufa or seventh rounder. I just wanted to type Storm Duck.

Yes, I agree. Diggs was an elite weapon, though not so much last year. I also concur about cap management. I am not for trading for a high-priced veteran. Depending on what happens in the draft, I could see them bringing in a mid-level veteran to fill out the room. Obviously, Beane traded the Justin Jefferson pick for Diggs. The next best receivers during Allen's tenure are arguably Brown for one year, and Cole Beasley. Davis had that explosive game against KC, and some decent games interspersed with lots of dropped balls, nagging injury, and tolerable WR2 play. It's not a great collection, though the Kincaid selection is a nice start at adding offensive weapons with higher ceilings. It is a pivotal draft. Getting WR right could really set the team up well going forward. I don't want to think about the ramifications of getting it wrong. Let's just get it right.

I'm going to cheat and say I like Mitchell. I think he does a lot of things well. There may be whispers about character issues. I don't know, really, but on the field, the main criticism is that he coasts when the ball isn't coming to him. Folks compare him to the Steelers' WR, Pickens. I don't know if that is overblown or not, but I do know that Mitchell has a habit of making clutch plays in big games, and that is something we could surely use. Worthy is a fast feather. He's more than a speed fella, though. He has a more developed route tree, and he could be a real weapon. I still worry about his size, and a lot of very fast WRs for whatever reason don't translate into NFL success. If you take him, unless Shorter turns out well, a big X who can block and catch is still a need in the WR room, so Worthy by himself is not enough. How about Jackson Powers-Johnson?

So, I am pretty old. When I was a kid, the Bills were not making the playoffs. For idiosyncratic reasons, I adopted the Vikings as a team to root for. I liked Fran Tarkenton. He was nicknamed "the scrambler," and back then his leaving the pocket and buying time by running was a novel idea. So, naturally, I feel the football gods are especially spiteful. Florio has definitely put a taint on my nostalgia, but I too still have a soft spot for them.

Perhaps my expression was insufficiently clear. I understand that an elite QB is a force multiplier. One answer is that if that is so, why not multiply elite talent at WR and get the best possible return on that multiplication? And it is true that paying the francise QB means you have to be economical elsewhere. One of the ways you can do that is by drafting WR1 early and getting five cost-controlled years on a rookie contract. Aside from injuries to our D, which were ultimately crippling, KC has a few elite talents. Kelce had a down year, but he was money in the playoffs. Mahomes, of course, and Jones on D. Add in superior coaching. But to return to my original point, obviously elite WRs can help elevate the game of an ordinary QB, though the QB isn't going to maximize their talent. What I intend is the strategy of creating an overpowering offense that can terrify opposing defenses. I don't think that happens without a special QB combined with elite WR talent, or at least, it becomes much harder. Anyway, we are well into Josh Allen's prime. The rookie contract window has come and gone with a lot of post-season disappointment. I don't think Allen has been generally well-served by the roster construction in terms of the quality of surrounding weapons. I'd like to see a commitment to surrounding him with superlative weapons, rather than consistently asking him to elevate players who are "good enough." The latter can achieve decent statistical numbers, but it doesn't create the kind of offensive juggernaut that I believe is within reach.

I agree with all of this, except I think Kincaid can be really good. I don't know how close to Kelce, but I'm not ready to say he can't be elite. You can't count on that happening, however, and he may plateau at a lower level of achievement. Doesn't ultimately affect the overall truth that they still need to give Josh Allen much better weapons. Shakir and Samuel are solid pieces, but they are not A-level weapons. And as I've tried to point out to the D crowd -- if you have a truly potent offense, not just statistically, but one that can terrorize the opposition, you make the other teams' offense reactive, feeling that they have to match you after every drive or risk falling into the abyss. And most teams won't have the fire power to keep up. That is a big edge to your own D, because panic on the other side causes mistakes and also makes the playbook narrow to more predictable limits. If you have an ordinary QB, you can't try this strategy, but we don't have an ordinary QB. We have one of the most athletically gifted QBs to ever play the game. Why construct a roster that ignores that rare gift to your franchise?

Some of these folks think that's overkill. Just get someone who runs the right routes and catches the ball. What about the D, etc.? No matter how the draft plays out, Beane has to upgrade the WR room. I'd like to try exceptional talent at WR to add to Kincaid and Cook as weapons. Then role players like Samuel and Shakir slot into the place where you are not asking too much of them, and they are able to flourish with the correct level of expectation. Outside the top 3, I think you probably have to bring in two WRs, either through the draft or a combination of draft and trade.

I'm a McConkey fan. Some fella, I forget who, but it was an astute comment, said that McConkey could play the role that Diggs had in the offense, except that Diggs had more vertical downfield distance prowess, whereas McConkey runs most of his routes taking advantage of horizontal space and cuts into the middle of the field. What I insist on is that McConkey is not just a "gritty slot receiver," which is the narrative many push with regard to him. My sense is that a lot of folks see Franklin as the more obvious successor to Diggs. I think both are possible, and I see why folks like Franklin. I happen to prefer McConkey. How about Graham Barton? I think both Robinsons are reaches at the bottom of the first. Chop has quick twitch traits, and could develop into a genuine edge threat. I don't think he's worth the investment at #28, but he's the sort of player I can see McD liking. Darius is a different kind of DL player. He is more versatile. You can move him inside. I'd like him as a second round selection, but he's even more of a reach than Chop in the first, I think. Latu is a medical risk, and he may fall because teams are wary of it. It's easier to make a case for him as a first round selection, but that concern is genuine, imo. How about AD Mitchell?

I guess I misinterpreted the game rules. No, Sweat is not a first round pick, and he won't be selected there. After his DWI issue, he may fall a bit, but probably someone will take him late 2nd or 3rd round. I think he's going to be a good player, provided he grows up a bit and keeps his weight somewhat in check. The problem with Bowers and Kincaid is that neither is really a traditional TE. They both would naturally take up the same spot, though I think Bowers has somewhat greater downfield speed. What kind of formation are you running? Thomas just naturally fills the X role, and Josh seems more comfortable playing 11, rather than 12 personnel. And I don't think you can just say, take Bowers and figure it out, or take Bowers and get rid of Knox. Knox is a traditional TE, and we need that player. But I'm an UGA fan. I love Bowers and McConkey. I think they're both going to be very good pros. I'm just not sure what kind of offense you are running that sees both Kincaid and Bowers see the field for the majority of snaps, because they are similar players, overall, though I do think Bowers is somewhat more versatile. If there's a way to make it work, I'd be thrilled to see it. Since I can't really figure it out, I lean towards Thomas. I don't think the conundrum will actually present itself. I think Bowers is likely gone before 12 - 15. And now that I have answered all that, I'll throw out an actual first round option that would be controversial. Cooper Dejean. Not to bias anything, but in my view, it's a mediocre safety draft, and though Dejean is listed as a CB, he's probably the best safety in the draft. Nubin is the only competition there.

Yeah, his pal was fumbling around at the back of the draft party room sorting through stacks of hats trying to find the Bills' cap. No one really expected it.

No one seems to want to play by the initial rules. I think the way it is supposed to work, you comment on a player, then propose someone else for the next poster to comment on, and so forth. Regardless, I'll comment on your comment on Bowers and propose someone to think about (and note: the game is not confined to pick #28, so you can name someone who would be picked later on.) Some will think you are simply replicating Kincaid by choosing Bowers. I think Bowers can play outside some, and I'd be tempted to try that experiment, but you would have to trade up for Bowers about as far as you would trade up for maybe Odunze. You can trade up for Thomas at the same or lesser price point, and I would expect that is the route Beane would go if he made that investment. Player for next poster to consider: T'Vondre Sweat.

I think he is the one that is most likely to be plausibly available. I just don't see a move up into the top 6 picks. It would be prohibitively expensive. Someone would have to fall to the pick 8 or 9 range. (That will still be very expensive.) I can't see the Jets passing on Odunze, so I surmise that is where you'd have to get to acquire him.